Guess what we have yet again today? That’s right, another 3-game DreamHack Masters slate! Today’s matches will include two matches out of Group D and one match out of Group B play. Let’s see what we have on tap for today!

 

Game 1

Vitality (Ranked 10th in World) vs ENCE (Ranked 23rd in World)

Vitality absolutely demolished NiP in their match yesterday, which was the debut of NiP not only in this DreamHack Masters event, but also the debut of hampus as their new teammate. As we can see, it did not go well for NiP as they lost 16-7 on their own map choice of Vertigo and lost even worse on Vitality’s map choice of Dust2 by a 16-4 result. I really believe there is a trend or angle that is becoming more and more apparent as these debut teams play their first rounds of the DreamHack, and mainly the ones that had an 11-14-day break between their last major event match. We have seen numerous teams lose their debut match, especially playing a team that has already played a match in the DreamHack Masters event. The rust aspect is definitely a thing, and we can see that these high-talent teams are needing at least a match or so under their belt before they get back into the groove of things. Vitality is one of those teams, as they lose to NaVi in their debut, but rolled NiP in their next match, which happened to be the opener for NiP as well. I believe finding these teams in bounce-back spots or playing a team in their second match while their opponent is fresh off a close to two-week break is a major angle to play at the time. Now, let’s get back to the match at hand here, and I at the time of writing this, ENCE is going to be playing NaVi in about an hour. NaVi is playing their second match, which they beat Vitality in their opener, but this should be interesting to watch as we can see this is ENCE first match after a small break. Definitely something I’ll be looking into after this match. So, this should be a good match, especially with ENCE getting a match under their belt with their new addition of Jamppi as well. Per the betting odds, Vitality is listed as a -140 favorite on the money line to win this match. The under 2.5 maps is juiced up to -140 as well, so the books could be expecting a sweep. These two squads are pretty familiar with each other, as they have played two matches already in 2020, once in the Road to Rio where ENCE prevailed in a 2-0 sweep, and once in the ESL Pro League where Vitality won after a three-map affair. These two also faced off twice in 2019, with literally the same outcome happening with ENCE sweeping 2-0 and Vitality winning the latter match of 2019 by a 2-1 result. There were a few maps that turned up multiple times in Dust2, Inferno, and Nuke. Nuke and Dust2 showed up the most at three times a piece with ENCE winning all three on Nuke, and Vitality winning two of the three on Dust2 . Inferno showed up twice with it being split 1-1. Speaking of maps, let’s see if the projected maps give us some information.

The ban map picks for these two lately has been Vertigo for ENCE, likely will be today as Vitality destroyed NiP on their map pick of Vertigo yesterday and have now won four straight there. Vitality continues to ban Train at 100% confidence, so can throw these two maps out. The first picks lately have been Nuke for Vitality, but I doubt we see this one being chosen by them as they have yet to beat ENCE on it in their three attempts in prior matches. The next highest percentage first map choice picked by Vitality and one I could easily see them going with is Inferno, as they have won over 60% of their last eight tries there, while ENCE has only won four of their last eight. The first map choice for ENCE has been Train, which we know Vitality will ban, so I could easily see ENCE going with Nuke with their head-to-head track record there. However, ENCE does have a four-map winning streak going on Dust2, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see them go with Nuke or Dust2, I am going to project Nuke however, as ENCE also saw Vitality destroy NiP on Dust2 yesterday. Let’s see who is performing on Nuke and Inferno for these two squads. For Vitality on their pick of Inferno (eight map sample) not a shocker who is leading this map in ZywOo with a 1.40 rating, 0.90 KPR, 1.51 IMP, and 91.3 ADR. Followed by apEX with 1.08, and misutaaa with 1.07. For Nuke (11 map sample) ZywOo at the top once again with a  1.21 rating, 0.78 KPR, 1.18 IMP, and 82.4 ADR. Only one other option sitting above a 1.0 rating here and that is also apEX at 1.01. Not the best of ratings for Nuke and a big reason why I believe ENCE will choose it. Let’s take a gander at ENCE on Inferno (eight map sample) sergej leads the list here with a 1.09 rating, 0.67 KPR, 1.13 IMP, and 77.7 ADR. Two followed him above the threshold with allu at 1.04 and suNny at the mark of 1.0. On Nuke (seven map sample) allu is the lead at 1.15 rating, 0.76 KPR, 1.22 IMP, and 78.8 ADR. Two others sit above the mark here with Jamppi at 1.08, and SuNny yet again at 1.0. I truly believe we see three maps here. I think that Vitality looked excellent yesterday, and I believe it will rely on ENCE winning Nuke, which head-to-head history is absolutely on their side here. Let’s talk options.

VITALITY:

ANCHOR: ZywOo – (Guy is a monster, that is all. Carrying a +55 K/D differential, 1.19 rating, and a 1.20 K/D against ENCE over last year in 13 maps)

Top stacking Options: ZywhOo, apEX, shox

 

ENCE:

ANCHOR: allu – (Easily top player here, also carrying a 1.56 K/D, +32 K/D differential, and 1.31 rating against Vitality in the last calendar year on four map sample)

Top Stacking Options: allu, Sergej, SuNny/Jamppi

 

Game 2

NaVi (Ranked 2nd in World) vs NiP (Ranked 13th in World)

So, I totally expect to see a much better performance from NiP here in their second match of the DreamHack Masters. It will not be an easy pull here against NaVi who has already won their first match against Vitality and will be playing ENCE here in the next half hour. I do apologize for not being able to include this data into my playbook, but I still feel there is plenty enough data present to make a good educated assessment of the outcome of this match. The books are pretty set on NaVi winning this match here as they are listed as -200 on the money line to win. It is likely majorly due to their past head-to-head history, as NaVi has owned NiP in the only three matches they have played dating back to October of 2019. They have played two best of three series and one best of one and NaVi won every single game in those matches for a clear 5-0 record in those games and a 3-0 record in matches. Which will also lead me to believe that recency bias will be a huge thing here with NiP losing by the sweep yesterday to a team that NaVi beat in their opener in Vitality. NiP is a better team than they showed, and I am pretty confident the “rust” factor is a thing. Expect NiP to make this a match. Let’s see what the projected map picks bring us.

The first ban map picks for these two is Dust2 for NiP, which just so happens to be the typical first map choice for NaVi as well. The usual ban for NaVi has been Vertigo. I’m sure that NaVi will hate to see Dust2 go, but it will be gone and so will Vertigo. The first map choice for NiP has been Overpass, a map they have done well on lately winning 60% of their last 12 attempts, and it gives them a slight experience advantage as NaVi has only played this map five times lately winning three of the five however. The second map chosen first by NaVi has been Train and this is a map that either team has played a ton lately with both playing less than seven times, but the slight edge for win% goes to NaVi at 60% compared to NiP’s 50%. However, I am going to use some map strategy here and say that Nuke could easily be a pick here for NaVi as it is a map they have played double the amount of Train lately at 11, while NiP has only played it a total of six times. Also, NaVi has won 55% of those attempts on Nuke, compared to NiP’s putrid 33%. I am going to feel pretty comfy saying that we likely see Overpass and Nuke as the map choices for this one. Let’s see who is performing on these two maps. For NaVi on their projected choice of Nuke (nine map sample) S1mple tops the list with a hefty 1.33 rating, 0.94 KPR, 1.36 IMP, and 85.5 ADR. Only other option above a 1.0 rating is electronic at 1.02. For Overpass (five map sample) S1imple once again leads the charge with a 1.35 rating, 0.84 KPR, 1.38 IMP, and 87.0 ADR. A few follow him up here with electronic at 1.17, Perfecto at 1.07, and boombl4 at 1.01. For NiP on their projected choice of Overpass (12 map sample) REZ leads the team with a 1.27 rating, 0.77 KPR, 1.40 IMP, and 85 ADR. Followed closely by Plopski at 1.26, twist at 1.22, hampus at 1.21, and Nawwk at 1.16. For Nuke (six map sample) Nawwk leads with a 1.07 rating, 0.69 KPR, 1.03 IMP, and 74.5 ADR. Followed by just Plopski at 1.05 for the rest above a 1.0 rating here. I am going to have so slightly side with the chalk here in NaVi. The uncertainty of the “rust” aspect, along with the fact that this will be NaVi’s third match for the DreamHack Masters, I think they have a bit of an advantage in this one. Let’s talk options.

NaVi:

ANCHOR: S1mple – (no-brainer here, has logged eight maps against NiP over last 12 months and carrying a +70 K/D differential, 1.60 K/D, and 1.39 rating as well)

Top Stacking Options: S1mple, electronic, Perfecto

 

NiP:

ANCHOR: Plopski – (Had a pretty rough match yesterday, expect a nice bounce-back today)

Top Stacking Options: Plopski, REZ, nawwk

 

Game 3

Evil Geniuses (Ranked 9th in World) vs 100 Thieves (Ranked 11th in World)

After dropping their last two matches, Evil Geniuses will be in panic-mode to get a win in this match before being booted from the DreamHack Masters tournament. 100T have a tough match on Thursday afternoon with a Cloud9, one of the teams that handed EG a loss already. 100T started their tournament out right getting a 2-0 sweep over Gen. G, the other team that gave EG their second loss in their prior match. The books have these two squads directly split at -115 on the money line for both, and a slight lean to the under 2.5 maps at -135 as well. These two teams are very familiar with each other, as they have played four times already in 2020, with 100T winning three of the four matches. Also, important to note that three of the four matches also went for three maps, with those three being the last three they have played. Must say the better recent form has to be 100T here as they have on three of their last five matches, while EG has dropped four of their last five. Could this be the match that EG needs against a familiar foe to get back on track? Let’s see if the projected maps can shine any light.

The first ban map picks for these two squads lately has been Overpass for both actually. The next highest banned map is by EG and it is Vertigo. I believe we can likely see these two thrown out in proper fashion. The first map choices have been Nuke for EG and Vertigo interestingly enough for 100T. I think in the event that we see the first ban go to EG, they may elect to ban Vertigo with this being an advantage to 100T, knowing that 100T will likely still ban Overpass. I believe Nuke is an advantage to EG, simply because they have played the map double the amount of times that 100T has lately by nine-to-four ratio. I think that these map choices could literally go either way, depending on who gets to ban the first map. I’ll say that it will not be as beneficial to try to nail these down as it could be a series of different map choices. So, let’s go right to player options and see who has performed well on the three to four maps we may see in Vertigo, Nuke, Inferno, and Dust2. For EG – Brehze leads the squad to no shock with a 1.16 rating, 0.77 KPR, 1.10 IMP, and 79.9 ADR, Followed by CeRq at 1.05, Ethan at 1.05, and that concludes the players above a 1.0 rating for those combined maps. For 100T – jks leads the charge with a 1.18 rating, 0.71 KPR, 1.06 IMP, and 76.3 ADR. He is followed by all four other options above the 1.0 rating threshold with Gratisfaction at 1.16 rating, jkaem at 1.12, Liazz at 1.07, and AZR at 1.06 on the combined maps. After looking at these maps as a whole, I feel that the data supports 100 Thieves here. Let’s talk options.

EG:

ANCHOR: CeRq – (After looking at the individual stats for these teams against each other over the past 6 months online, CeRq is the only player on EG with a positive K/D differential of ZERO and a 1.0 K/D, not a good look for EG)

Top Stacking Options: CeRq, Brehze, Ethan

 

100 THIEVES:

ANCHOR: Gratisfaction – (Looking at the last six months data against EG for online and he tops the team with a +36 K/D Differential, 1.44 K/D, and 1.29 rating in six maps against EG)

Top Stacking Options: Gratisfaction, jks, Liazz/AZR

 

***TOP PLAYS, STACKS, VALUES***

Top Plays: S1mple, ZywOo, allu, Gratisfaction, Plopski (Ranked in order)

Top Stacks: 100T, Vitality, NaVi, NiP, ENCE, EG (Ranked in order)

Top Values: shox, electronic, CeRq, apEX, AZR, Liazz (Not ranked in order)