Esports DFS Playbook: CS:GO May 23
Another DreamHack slate for this Saturday morning starting at that same time of bright and early 8:00 am ET. Yesterday’s matches were really fun, and I believe today’s will be also! Let’s get into it.
Mousesports (Ranked 4th in World) vs BIG (Ranked 30th in World)
First and foremost, have to give props where props are due and BIG deserves them all after beating MAD Lions on Vertigo in the third and final map yesterday. MAD got off to a nice start winning on BIG’s Mirage map pick, and then traded for Nuke which was MAD’s pick. Then showed very nice resilience and composure in a close third map to secure the win. Mousesports returned to action against Complexity, and did not fare very well, but if you read the playbook yesterday, we were on Complexity anyways. I think this will be another one of those perfect storm type matches, as we have Mouse fresh off a 0-2 sweep, and BIG off a huge win against the 13th ranked team in the World in MAD Lions. The books are expecting a bounce-back performance here by Mouse as they are laying -200 on the money line to win this match, and I think before looking at any map analysis, I agree with the books. BIG played just out of their minds yesterday, and MAD had been off on quite a break since winning the FlashPoint 1 tournament. Ropz never got going yesterday, and Mouse desperately needs him and frozen playing well to win. BIG had a monster game out of tabseN and syrsoN yesterday and didn’t get exactly the amount of help from XANTARES we had expected. With the previous match history, these two faced off in the ESL Pro League Season 10 Europe, where it went the full distance and Mouse won with a 2-1 result. Dust2 was the only map won by BIG, but it was pretty dominant finishing 16-7, while Mouse won 16-13 on the beginning map of Train and took the third map of Inferno with a 16-12 result. Let’s take a look at some projected map analysis for these two squads lately.
The first map bans for these two lately have been Train for BIG 72% of the time, while Overpass continues to be the typical ban for Mouse. The first picks are generally Train for Mouse, which will be banned, after Train they are picking Dust2 around 30% of the time. Dust2 is a good map for them lately, and even has been better than Train as they have won nearly 80% of their last 13 tries there. BIG has played it 17 times as of late, winning roughly 65% of those tries as well, so not a clear-cut advantage. BIG is choosing Mirage at the highest clip for their first map choice lately around 26% of the time, and this is a map that I could see Mouse banning, as it is a map they have only played a total of five times lately and have only won two out of those five as well. Overpass has not tipped the radar for BIG as a first pick, and they have only played it five times lately, so in game theory, it would be smart for Mouse to ban Mirage instead of Overpass. That would likely put BIG on Inferno or Nuke. With the fact that they torched MAD on Nuke yesterday, I could easily see them going with Nuke as their map choice as they have won close to 70% there lately, along with a six-game winning streak. So, let’s see who is performing well on Dust2 and Nuke lately for these two squads. For Mouse on Dust2 (nine map sample) frozen leads the team with a 1.17 rating, 0.69 KPR, 72.5 Kill-Asst%, 1.09 IMP, and 80.5 ADR. He is followed up by ropz with 1.13, and woxic with 1.10. For Nuke (nine map sample) ropz leads the team by a good margin at a 1.23 rating, followed by frozen with a 1.16 and that concludes the options over a 1.0 rating for Nuke. For BIG on dust2 (15 map sample) XANTARES sits at the top with a 1.19 rating, 0.77 KPR, 74.7 Kill-Asst%, 1.11 IMP, and 81.0 ADR. Followed closely behind by syrsoN with 1.19, tabseN with 1.18, k1to has a 1.08, and lastly tiziaN sits at the threshold of 1.0. For Nuke (13 map sample) syrsoN leads the way with a 1.20 rating, 0.79 KPR, 72.0 Kill-Asst%, 1.23 IMP, and 79.4 ADR. He is followed by tabseN with 1.18, XANTARES with 1.15, and tiziaN with 1.01. After looking over the map data, I believe that BIG looks very strong on both of the projected map picks, and their team collectively is overall the better team here. This could easily, I mean EASILY, turn into a three-map match, OR I could see BIG just sweeping Mouse, as their woes just keep continuing, and we saw how easily BIG took advantage of MAD’s mistakes yesterday. Let’s talk options.
ANCHOR: ropz – (Has best statistics on the projected maps, and he really was non-existent yesterday. I expect a much better outing, but it could be a worst time for that bounce-back against this BIG team)
Top Stacking Options: ropz, frozen, woxic
ANCHOR: syrsoN – (It was either he or tabseN and I think they both are good capt picks, Xantares should have a much better outing than he did yesterday as well, and if he does that could be bad for Mouse, however syrsoN is the AWP guy and he showed off some major skill yesterday)
Top stacking options: syrsoN, tabseN, XANTARES
MAD Lions (Ranked 13th in World) vs Complexity (Ranked 23rd in World)
After getting the rust knocked off yesterday, I would expect to see a much better performance from MAD Lions in this match against a Complexity team that shocked Mousesports with a 0-2 sweep. Complexity will likely be riding pretty high on that horse after the sweep, and I could easily see MAD being pretty salty about losing that match yesterday in the opening round for DreamHack, and who wants to go to 0-2 for the tournament? Not MAD. I fully expect MAD to come out firing after the loss, and I could see them catching Complexity a little if Complexity is on the high-horse. The oddsmakers really have set this bar low after the MAD loss, as they come in at -130 on the money line currently for tomorrow. These two teams have yet to face off in recent memory, so the head-to-head data isn’t present. I must say though, Complexity has won all five of their prior five matches by the 2-0 sweep, so don’t expect them to just lay down. This team has looked really damn good lately and this won’t be an easy task and wouldn’t shock me at all to see it go the full distance of three maps. Let’s take a look at some projected maps.
First off, Complexity has three maps that they currently have winning streaks on: Dust2, Inferno, and Train. The first bans for these two is Inferno for MAD and Overpass for Complexity. The first map choices have been Mirage for Complexity around 50% of the time lately, and Nuke for MAD close to 30% of the time. Mirage has been good to Complexity lately as their first pick as they have won 65% of their last 17 tries there, however, MAD has done a bit better but in a smaller sample winning 86% of their last 7 tries on Mirage. For Nuke, MAD has won seven of their last ten there, while COMP has won roughly 65% of their last 14 their as well. I believe we could see three maps to be quite honest, and I believe the decided could be Train (favors COMP) or Dust2 (both have done really well, but COMP with 5-map win streak going there). Let’s see who performs well on Mirage and Nuke for these two squads. For MAD on Mirage (six map sample) bubz leads the way with a 1.33 rating, 0.82 KPR, 73.1 Kill-Asst%, 1.33 IMP, and 92.3 ADR. Followed up by acoR with 1.19, roeJ with 1.16, and sjuush with 1.06. For Nuke (eight map sample) Bubz leads the way once again with a 1.25 rating, 0.76 KPR, 71.4 Kill-Asst%, 1.32 IMP, and 89.1 ADR. Next to Bubz is sjuush with 1.17, roeJ with 1.16, and acoR with 1.02. For COMP on Mirage lately (16 map sample) blameF sits at the top with a 1.26 rating, 0.76 KPR, 77.2 Kill-Asst%, 1.08 IMP, and 86.5 ADR. K0nfig sits right behind him with a hefty 1.23 rating, poizon 1.16, and oBo with 1.06. On Nuke (12 map sample) k0nfig leads the charge with a 1.27 rating, 0.87 KPR, 1.23 IMP, and 88.7 ADR. blameF follows him up with a1.23 rating, and then its poizon with 1.21 and oBo with 1.19. Ill be honest, I seriously think we see this match go three maps. I think it is a mere coin-toss on who wins but I think the value is on Complexity once again here. Let’s talk options.
ANCHOR: Bubz – (Looked very rusty yesterday, hopefully a match under his belt will get him back in playing mentality and get his gears back in the right direction. His numbers for the projected maps are stellar, so just have to plug and go)
Top Stacking Options: Bubz, roeJ, acoR/sjuush
ANCHOR: k0nfig – (Been very consistent lately, top 1-2 ratings on both projected maps and has nice upside)
Top Stacking Options: k0nfig, blameF, oBo
Liquid (Ranked 6th in World) vs MIBR (Ranked 15th in World)
Both of these teams were beaten by the same squad in FURIA in their most recent matches, however, TL pushed FURIA the distance going three maps before losing in a 1-2 result, while MIBR was swept 0-2. MIBR is currently playing Chaos today, so I unfortunately do not have this data to look over as I want to get this playbook out to you guys as soon as possible! The current betting odds have Liquid as the biggest favorite on the board today sitting as a -300 favorite to win this match. These two teams know each other very well. They have already played three matches so far in 2020, with Liquid literally winning all three matches by a 2-0 sweep. MIBR has only won two of the two of the 12 games played in six prior matches dating back to 2019. Obviously, this does not look well for MIBR. TL just has seemed to have had their number in prior matches, and the books are backing them once again here as a three-to-one favorite. Let’s see if the projected map picks give any more of an advantage, or less.
The ban picks for these two have been Nuke for MIBR nearly 85% of the time lately, and Train 100% of the time for TL lately. The first picks have been Train, which will be banned for MIBR, and Inferno for TL. Both squads share a similar success lately to inferno, as both have won roughly a little over 60% on the map in eight and thirteen tries. Two maps that MIBR has picked second-most recently is Mirage (won 62% of last eight) and Overpass (won 67% of last six). Overpass would make more sense because they have had a small bit more success there lately than TL, but Mirage they have played two more times lately, so Mirage would likely feel a bit more comfortable for them with more experience. Let’s see who is performing on Inferno and Mirage for these two. For Liquid on Inferno (seven map sample) Twistzz leads the team with a 1.24 rating, 0.78 KPR, 76.6 Kill-Asst%, 1.07 IMP, and 78.8 ADR. Followed by NAF with 1.23, and EliGe with 1.09. For Mirage (seven map sample) EliGe sits at the top with a 1.22 rating, 0.75 KPR, 70.1 Kill-Asst%, 1.41 IMP, and 87.1 ADR. Following him is stewie2k with 1.16, NAF with 1.13, and Twistzz with 1.01. For MIBR on Inferno (13 map sample) kNgV- sits at the top of the list with 1.18 rating, 0.74 KPR, 73.1 Kill-Asst%, 1.18 IMP, and 79.1 ADR. After him is FalleN with 1.16, fer also with 1.16 and that concludes all above 1.0 rating. For Mirage (eight map sample) FalleN leads the way with 1.23 rating, 0.79 KPR, 75.9 Kil-Asst%, 1.15 IMP, and 82 ADR. He is followed by kNgV- at 1.16, fer at 1.15 and that is all above the 1.0 threshold. The head-to-head history and the map analysis/projected map picks still favor TL in my opinion. Let’s talk options.
EliGE – (Believe he will be the difference maker in this one, he has had great numbers in their past head-to-heads as well)
Top Stacking Options: EliGe, NAF, Twistzz/stewie2k
ANCHOR: kNgV- - (He leads the team in rating and his numbers are pretty excellent for both projected map picks, and believe he will have nice value in this one)
Top Stacking Options: kNgV-, FalleN, fer
***TOP PLAYS, STACKS, VALUES***
Top Plays: syrsoN, k0nfig, EliGe, kNgV-, ropz, Bubz
Top Stacks: BIG, Complexity, Liquid, MAD, Mouse, MIBR
Top Values: fer, stewie2k, roeJ, kNgV-, tabseN