Esports DFS Playbook: CS:GO May 22
Glad to be back FANation! Took the day off yesterday to give my little girl all the attention as she turned the big THREE years old. Back at it today with another 3-game DreamHack Masters slate in CS:GO. Have some really nice matches today, so let’s jump right in!
***Have you tried Monkey Knife Fight yet?? Play & Win CA$h on Monkey Knife Fight. Just use PROMO CODE: ALARM for your first deposit for a special offer!! à www.fantasyalarm.com/monkeycsgo.
TOP MONKEY KNIFE FIGHT PROPS:
- Rapid Fire – (First map of MAD/BIG):
- Bubzkji +0.5 Kills over syrsoN
- XANTARES -0.5 Kills over tabseN
- Promo Pick – (More/Less 2nd map of COMP/MOUSE):
- Ropz Over 20.5 Kills
- K0nfig Over 20.5 Kills
Mousesports (Ranked 4th in World) vs Complexity (Ranked 23rd in World)
As I would have presumed upon looking at the first match up of the best of three series for today, Mouse comes in as a pretty hefty favorite to win this match at -234 on the money line. Also, the under 2.5 maps is sitting decently juiced up at -145, signifying that this could likely turn into a 2-0 sweep as well. Both teams come into the match in decent form, Complexity has reeled off five straight match wins in their previous five, however, the level of competition faced lately has not been near what Mouse will be like. Mouse has suffered two set-backs in their prior five matches, one to FaZe in a 0-2 result, and also allowed GODSENT to sweep them as well two matches ago. They do however have a nice 2-1 result over G2, c0ntact, and Copenhagen Flames. Not the dominating performances you would hope for, but they have had a little time off since those matches and should have had plenty of time to regroup and study this match against Complexity. These two teams have not faced off any in the last year or so, so the head-to-head data isn’t there to analyze. We can however look at the player stats for the last three months, where Complexity have four of their five player options sitting above a 1.11 rating. Mouse has three sitting over 1.06 led by ropz at 1.14, frozen at 1.11 and lastly Woxic with the 1.06. Need to remind that these ratings may be a bit inflated for Complexity due to their level of competition lately, but blameF sits with a hefty 1.22 rating, followed by k0nfig at 1.21. At this point in the analysis, I would go as much to say that I don’t feel as confident with the recent form of Complexity that this will turn into a 0-2 sweep by mouse that most might think upon first look. Let’s take a look at the projected map picks and if these present any edges.
For the ban picks, Overpass has been a popular ban map for both of these teams lately, with Mouse banning it over 50%, while COMP close 40%. So, we can throw that one out pretty easily. Complexity is also banning Vertigo roughly 35% of the time as well lately, so we can likely confidently scratch out Overpass and Vertigo. The first map choice for Mouse lately has been Train, a map they have won 65% of their last 14 tries, however, Complexity has won 62% of their last eight there as well. Complexity is choosing Mirage a shade over 50% of the time lately, and it has been good to them as they have won 65% of their last 17 ties, and it is the most played map for them by a small margin other than Nuke (14). Mirage is a weaker spot for Mouse, and if COMP make this their map choice like I expect, I could see them stealing a win here. It is the second worse map for Mouse other than Inferno (22%-win rate in last 9 tries). I could also see Mouse going with Dust2, a map the have won over 80% of their last 12, but on the same token COMP has won 62% of their last 13 there as well, so I feel pretty confident they go with Train for their pick as it is one of the lesser-played maps for COMP lately. Let’s see who is performing well on Train and Mirage. For Mouse on these two, beginning with their map choice of Train (13 map sample) frozen leads the way with a 1.27 rating, 0.83 KPR, 1.20 IMP, 75.9 Kill-Asst%, and 89.5 ADR. He is followed by ropz with a 1.11, and woxic with a 1.05 that make up all above a 1.0 rating. For Mirage (5 map sample) frozen leads again with a 1.10 rating, 0.70 KPR, 75.0 Kill-Asst%, 1.08 IMP, and 73.7 ADR, followed by ropz again with a 1.05 and Karrigan sitting at the threshold at 1.00. Mirage has not been that great to them, and the numbers do show this. For Complexity on Train (8 map sample) blameF tops the list with a massive 1.48 rating, 0.93 KPR, 1.47 IMP, 82.7 Kill-Asst%, and a hefty 98.2 ADR. He is followed by three others above a 1.0 rating on Train with k0nfig at 1.23, oBo at 1.09 and poizon at 1.01. On Mirage (16 map sample) blameF at the top again with a 1.26 rating, 0.76 KPR, 77.2 Kill-Asst%, 1.08 IMP, and 86.5 ADR. Same as followed by k0nfig at1.23, poizon sits at a nice 1.16 rating, and oBo with a 1.06. After analyzing the map data here for what I feel is the projected map picks, I do feel quite a bit better about Complexity and think they are a live dog and could easily steal a map and make this a three-map affair. This coupled with the fact that Mouse hasn’t been able to sweep anyone lately, I think the value is on Complexity. Let’s talk options.
ANCHOR: frozen – (Tops both map picks projected for this match and by a decent margin)
Top Stacking Options: frozen, ropz, woxic
ANCHOR: blameF – (Hefty numbers on both maps, huge KPRs and DPRs are very good as well. Likely my favorite play in this match and maybe even on the slate)
Top stacking options: blameF, k0nfig, poizon/oBo
MAD Lions (Ranked 13th in World) vs BIG (Ranked 30th in World)
BIG is a newer team to the scene for this event. MAD Lions haven’t played a bigger event since they won the FlashPoint 1 series against MIBR in a 2-1 result, but they had routed a couple very good teams via the sweep in the likes of HAVU, FPX, and Cloud9 also in that tournament. The oddsmakers don’t exactly have a ton of confidence in MAD here as they have set the line at -160 for the Lions to win this match. Under 2.5 maps is juiced a short bit at -130, and I honestly could see a MAD sweep here. Their recent form has been excellent, they only worry we can have here is that they may be a bit rusty with the time off since the FlashPoint tournament. BIG has played a few of the known teams lately in the Gambit Youngsters, who they lost via the 0-2 sweep to, and Complexity in a 1-2 affair. They did beat a decent Winstrike team in their own 2-0 sweep and have won three of their last five with two coming from a sweep. The talent-level of the competition is just a smidge lower than what MAD is used to seeing. So, a couple things could potentially work against MAD here, they could be rusty, or they could take this team lightly and not think to hard on this match. In my opinion, MAD is one of the best teams in the world, so I feel they likely come out and dominate this match and get the 2-0 win. Let’s see what the projected maps look like.
The first bans for these two squads have been Inferno for MAD over 70% of the time, and Train for BIG over 70% of the time as well, we so can confidently throw those out. The first map choices for these two has been the same map ironically and it was Mirage, where they both have won close to 80% of their recent matches, however MAD has only play it six times recently, where as BIG has played it 19. Having roughly an 80%-win rate on a map over 19 tries is pretty damn impressive. Another map that MAD has picked at about the same clip as their first pick as Mirage is Nuke. On Nuke, they have won close to 80% of their last nine tries, there where BIG has been good as well winning 67% of their last 12. I think these two can be what we see for projected map choices in this match, so we can see who performs well on these now. For MAD on Mirage (5 map sample) Bubzkji leads all players with a 1.36 rating, 0.84 KPR, 1.36 IMP, 74.8 Kill-Asst%, and 93.5 ADR. Followed up by acoR at 1.21, roej at 1.15, and sjuush at 1.09 rating. For Nuke (7 map sample) Bubz sits atop the list again with a 1.28 rating, 0.78 KPR, 1.40 IMP, and 89.0 ADR. Sjuush sits next on this map with a 1.21 rating, followed by roej with 1.19 and acoR with 1.11. For BIG on Mirage (17 map sample) XANTARES tops the list with a 1.26 rating, 0.84 KPR, 1.29 IMP, 73.3 Kill-Asst%, and 89.5 ADR. SyrsoN is next with a 1.24 rating, followed by tabseN with 1.21 and k1to with a 1.04. For Nuke (12 map sample) syrsoN leads the way with 1.17 rating, 0.78 KPR, 1.20 IMP, and 78.2 ADR. Next is tabseN with 1.15, XANTARES with 1.14, and tiziaN with 1.00. Let’s talk options.
ANCHOR: Bubzjki – (not really a hard decision here, he tops the list for both projected map picks by a hefty margin. KPR numbers are great along with asst%)
Top Stacking Options: Bubz, acoR, sjuush (roej for value)
ANCHOR: XANTARES – (Tops Mirage and is closely the third best rating on Nuke, feel he has been the more consistent player on these maps lately and should have some success if you decide to play BIG)
Top Stacking Options: XANTARES, syrsoN, tabseN
MIBR (Ranked 15th in World) vs Chaos (Ranked 53rd in World)
I am going to be looking for quite the bounce-back from MIBR in this match up, and I think it is the perfect storm for it. MIBR fresh off a 0-2 sweep at the hands of FURIA, while Chaos is fresh off a huge win over Team Liquid in a 2-1 result. This is typically called your let-down spot, and I feel MIBR will be itching pretty badly for a win to get the loss off their back. Chaos has beaten a couple no-namers in their last couple of matches after the Liquid win, so they are sitting high and mighty, little do they know MIBR is a way better team than they are. Don’t get me wrong, Chaos has won all five of their last five matches, but their only reputable win is against Liquid. These two teams did face off in the FlashPoint 1 tournament as well, where MIBR beat them in a 2-1 result. The game wins for MIBR were quite convincing as well as they resulted in 16-8 and 16-7 scores. The game they lost was a 16-12 defeat on Inferno sending it to the third map. Chaos has a little bit of a different look this time around than the last time these two played with the additions of Jonji and xeppa, and these two have actually made them a little bit better lately, but I still expect MIBR to get this win. MIBR is also the largest favorite on the slate, sitting at -260 on the money line to win this match, and the Under 2.5 maps is juiced way up to -163, so I believe this has more of a probability to end up 2-0 than say the Mouse/Comp match. Let’s see about some projected map picks.
The first bans for these two squads have been Nuke for MIBR over 80% of the time, and Vertigo almost 40% of the time for Chaos. The first map choices have been Train for MIBR almost 40% of the time and was their choice against FUR as well. Chaos has not been that great on Train lately and have only played it just three times lately, winning none of those three attempts. I could also see Chaos banning Train, as Vertigo is a map that MIBR has lost four-straight on. In that event, I could see MIBR going with Overpass or Mirage, as Chaos has only played on Mirage a total of four times lately. Honestly, I can’t project the map choices as easily here, as I feel Chaos would be pretty counter-productive to not ban Train, and then it’s a small toss-up to know what map MIBR goes with. It could be Overpass, Mirage, or even Inferno. Chaos has even evenly divided their first map choices lately with Dust2 and Inferno. It will have to be a wait-and-see approach here and go off overall player numbers for the options.
ANCHOR: FalleN – (a god with the AWP, and I feel any map he will be the biggest producer on likely, or at least the most consistent player option)
Top Stacking Options: FalleN, fer, kNgV- (trk value)
ANCHOR: Xeppaa – (dropped a 62-50 K/D ration on Liquid, had a 95.6 ADR, 73.7 Kill-Asst% and a 1.32 rating – pretty good)
Top Stacking Options: Xeppaa, jonji, vanity
***TOP PLAYS, STACKS, VALUES***
Top Plays: Bubzkji, blameF, FalleN, Xeppaa, frozen (not ranked in order)
Top Stacks: MAD, MIBR, Complexity, Mouse, Chaos, BIG
Top Values: Jonji, acoR, poizon, vanity, trk