We have yet another three-game slate for the opening group rounds of the DreamHack Masters series for Tuesday. It does begin at the same time of 8:00 AM ET, so get it in early! Let’s talk CSGO.
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GOOD LUCK!
Game 1
G2 (Ranked 5th in World) vs Heroic (Ranked 36th in World)
Heroic was a 0-2 loser in their first match of group play at the hands of Astralis. Not exactly the best draw for your first match. G2 failed to close out map three against North and lost a heart-breaker with a 2-1 result. G2 should have a pretty easy route in this match against a much lesser-talented Heroic team. Heroic did however take both of the first two maps against Astralis to the max as they won 16 rounds in an OT thrill on Train for the first map, and won 14 on Inferno in map two, so they did play very competitively in this one. G2 dropped the first map of Vertigo to North, dominated them on Inferno, and let the slipping happen on map three or Dust2 to lose the series 2-1 to North. Heroic was led by stavn as the top fragger, followed by b0rUP, both of these players were able to score 40+ kills on the best team in the World. G2 was fueled by huNter- and JaCkz mainly, KennyS showed good posture on his birthday for the last two maps as well. Heroic had won a couple nice matches before the loss to Astralis, so they will be pretty hungry to get back into the winning ways. G2 isn’t near as big of a favorite here as Astralis -1000 was yesterday, as they are currently -285 on the money line to beat Heroic. Let’s take a look at some projected map picks.
First banned maps for these two squads are Dust2 by Heroic at a 75% clip, while Overpass is the typical 80% ban for G2. First picks for each are Nuke for Heroic, and Dust2 for G2, but likely will get banned. I could see G2 either going with Vertio, as this is one of the least played maps lately for Heroic. I highly feel we get Vertigo and Nuke as the two first picks. Let’s see who is performing well on these two maps. For Heroic, on Nuke (9 map sample) niko (only four maps played) tops the list here with a massive 1.35 rating, 0.91 KPR, 1.55 IMP, and 95 ADR. Following him is cadiaN with a 1.06 and b0rUP with a 1.04. For Vertigo, not much data to go off since they just haven’t really played it at all lately which should be a decent advantage for G2 here. For G2, on Nuke (8 map sample) nexa tops the list with a 1.18 rating, 0.79 KPR, 1.17 IMP, and 82.1 ADR. Followed by JaCkz, huNter-, AND KennyS with a 1.11 rating. AmaNEk has not had the best luck on Nuke, only carrying a pretty putrid 0.89 rating. For Vertigo (9 map sample) KennyS has been great on this map, leads the team with a hefty 1.30 rating, 0.83 KPR, 1.28 IMP, and 83.4 ADR. Following KennyS is nexa with 1.14, huNter- with a 1.11 and both JaCkz and AmaNEk sit with a 1.08 for Vertigo. Really think that if Heroic fail to win their map pick, they will get 2-0 swept in this match. Let’s talk options.
G2:
ANCHOR: KennyS – (feel that Vertigo could be a huge map for him, and he has excellent numbers)
Top stacking Options: KennyS, huNter-, nexa (JaCkz is value)
HEROIC:
ANCHOR: niko – (Beleve he is going to have to be stellar on Nuke if they want a chance in this match, huge numbers for his last four tries on Nuke, so feel he could be the top player for this squad if this is scenario)
Top Stacking Options: niko, stavn, b0rUP
Game 2
Astralis (Ranked 1st in World) vs North (Ranked 25th in World)
As mentioned above, Astralis was actually pushed a little yesterday, and need I remind that Gla1ve is taking a “mental leave of absence for a couple of months”, so they are playing with a stand-in payer JuGi. I don’t feel this will be a disadvantage so much for Astralis, but it could mess a bit with the team chemistry, but he has been a stand-in multiple times for Astralis in the past, so no big deal. North won a crazy 3-map affair with G2 yesterday, so they could be riding a very high horse here and could be set up for the let-down. Don’t want to make any excuses here for Astralis, as they truly don’t need any, and I still feel that they win this match. Could North steal a map? That is a good question, and we can go take a gander at the map picks to see what is there. Per the betting odds, Astralis is a hefty -525 favorite to win this match. Astralis will have to rely more on guys like Magisk and Dupreeh, both who have stepped up very nicely lately. North played with a debut new stand-in player yesterday in Kristou, and he played quite well for his first match with his new team. They didn’t seem to miss a beat, the chemistry was good, and they played well together, so don’t exactly feel this is a disadvantage as much for North. North will have to bring their A-game if they want to beat a team like Astralis, let’s not forget how easily they dismantled G2 in the Road to Rio grand finale. There is some head-to-head match data here, but as you can presume, it favors Astralis as they have won seven of the last nine games they played and have swept the last three matches between the two squads. Let’s look at some maps.
North will have quite a tough choice on what map they want to ban, as Astralis is pretty much good on all maps. I feel they will likely ban Inferno, as Astralis has won eight straight there, while they have lost four-straight. Astralis will likely do North a favor here and ban Inferno, which is another map that splits the recent bans for North. I think that Astralis will likely choose Nuke as their first pick as they have close to 50% of the time recently, and this is not a great map for North as they have only won 43% of their last 13 tries there. North has chosen Vertigo almost 50% of the time lately and it was their map choice against G2 yesterday, however, this is a map that Astrlalis has been very good on as well winning six of their last eight tries there. I highly believe these will be the two map selections and it favors Astralis right off the bat. We did see Aizy have an amazing Vertigo map yesterday, and we also saw amazing performances both Device, Dupreeh, and Xyp9X on their last Vertigo map played. Let’s talk options.
ASTRALIS:
ANCHOR: Device – (Over last month playing online – 1.26 rating, 0.82 KPR, 1.37 IMP, 83 ADR)
Top Stacking Options: Device, Dupreeh, Magisk/Xyp9X
NORTH:
ANCHOR; aizy – (Over last month playing online – 1.13 rating, 0.75 KPR, 1.21 IMP, 81.9 ADR)
Top Stacking Options: aizy, MSL, Kristou
Game 3
MIBR (Ranked 15th in World) vs FURIA (Ranked 9th in World)
This is match we have seen a few times before, and FURIA has dominated this head-to-head match-up in recent memory. Per the betting odds, FURIA comes in as a -200 favorite to win this match, and its for good reason as they have won three of their last five matches against MIBR by the 2-0 sweep and have won four of the five overall as well. Only two of the matches were brought to three maps. They have played three matches in 2020, FURIA has won them all, with the last two being 2-0 sweep. The last time MIBR played, was against FURIA, so this does bring a bit of a revenge aspect to the mix here for MIBR. Also, for a team that has dominated this series, FURIA you would think would be a bit of a larger favorite than just 2-to-1, but I believe the books now that this match could easily go either way for either of these teams, as they are both very good CSGO teams. FURIA has been led by KSCERATO mainly in these three prior matches in 2020, followed by HEN1. Yuurih has also been good in this head-to-head match-up as well. For MIBR, kNgV- has led the team in frags in two of the three matches, with fer and Fallen shortly behind. Let’s see what maps can be projected for this match.
First bans for these two have been Dust2 by FURIA pretty much 100% lock recently, and Nuke for MIBR at 85% clip. The first picks have been Train for MIBR and Mirage for FURIA, where they have a nine-game winning streak going. FURIA has also picked Vertigo at a decently high clip, but I feel they will definitely go with Mirage as it has been very good to them lately. Train really hasn’t been great to MIBR, as they have won less than 50% of their last nine tries there. Mirage hasn’t been exactly bad to MIBR either, as they have won over 60% of their last eight tries there. Let’s see who is performing on these maps. For FURIA on their map of Mirage (9 map sample) led by KSCERATO with a 1.36 rating, 0.78 KPR, 1.29 IMP, insane 0.46 DPR and 79.7 Kill-Asst%. Followed closely by HEN1 with a 1.32 rating, VINI with a 1.20, yuurih with a 1.19 and arT even has a 1.13 on this map. For Train (only 3 maps played lately) yuurih tops the charts for the team with a massive 1.31 rating, 0.88 KPR, 1.19 IMP, and 94.8 ADR, followed by HEN1 with 1.19 rating, and KSCERATO with 1.08 rating there. For MIBR on Mirage (8 map sample) led by FalleN with a 1.23 rating, 0.79 KPR, 1.15 IMP, and 82 ADR. He is followed by kNgV- with a 1.16 rating, and fer with a 1.15. On Train (7 map sample) fer leads the way with a 1.24 rating, 0.82 KPR, 75.6 Kill-Asst%, 1.28 IMP, and 84.7 ADR. He is followed by kNgV- at 1.23 rating and FalleN has a 1.15. Honestly, I feel this match could be closer than we expect. The oddsmaker’s line is quite fishy, and I think there could possibly be a little value on MIBR as a live doggy. Let’s talk options.
MIBR:
ANCHOR: fer – (believe he will have to be huge in this match if they want to win, and Train could be his best map. Over last 3 months online he leads team with 1.18 rating, 0.76 KPR, 1.16 IMP, 74.8 Kill-Asst%, and 82.8 ADR)
Top Stacking Options: fer, FalleN, kNgV-
FURIA:
ANCHOR: Yuurih – (believe he will be a value captain on this slate for the favorite here in FURIA. His numbers on Train are very attractive, and even on Mirage as well as he sits third best rating)
Top Stacking Options: Yuurih, KSCERATO, HEN1
***TOP PLAYS, STACKS, VALUES***
Top Plays: Device, KennyS, Yuurih, fer (not ranked in order)
Top Stacks: G2, Astralis, FURIA, MIBR, North, Heroic (ranked in order)
Top Values: fer, kNgV-, JacKz, stavn, b0rUP, kristou (not ranked in order)