Esports DFS Playbook: CS:GO May 18
We have finished off the Road to Rio event, and now we are moving onto some small events before the DreamHack series gets in full steam. Today, we have two games from the BLAST Rising series and one from the Hellcase series as well. Let’s jump right into the article!
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More/Less - (First map of AGO vs IZAKO)
-Siuhy Under 17.5 Kills
-F1KU Under 19.5 Kills
Endpoint (Ranked 31st in World) vs AVEZ (Ranked 59th in World)
This best of three quarter-final match in the BLAST Rising series features the top team from group A play in Endpoint, as well as the number two overall seed in Group D play in AVEZ. Both of these squads sit with five match wins out of the six played. Endpoint comes in with the third highest round differential so far in the tournament at +28, while AVEZ is still in the plus column but with just 8 plus rounds so far. This tournament only pays prize money to the top four spots, so these teams still have a little way to go before they get any recognition. Endpoint dropped their last match to a decent Complexity team in the result of a 0-2 sweep but had won three straight matches prior to that match. AVEZ have lost three of their last four, however those three losses were to Gambit Youngsters, Copenhagen Flames, and Heretics. Three teams we have seen quite a bit of and two were in the Road to Rio. These two teams do not have a prior match head-to-head history worth noting, so we get some fresh looks here. Per the betting odds currently, the books are favoring Endpoint at a -180 clip. I also need to note that AVEZ is missing one of their core players in MOLSI, who has missed their last two matches. Just looking at ratings for these two teams in terms of this event, Endpoint has all of their options sitting at a 1.04 and above, led by Thomas with a 1.25 and CRUC1AL with a 1.24. AVEZ has three options eclipsing the 1.0 rating mark, led by KEi with 1.16, and stand-in player byali with a 1.13. Let’s see where the map analysis can point us.
The first bans for these two squads has been Nuke rougly 70% of the time for Endpoint, and Mirage roughly 65% of the time the for AVEZ. Dust2 has been a popular first pick around 51% of the time lately for Endpoint, and this map is an edge for them lately winning it at a 65% clip, compared to only a 33% clip for AVEZ (and who have only played this map 3 times lately). AVEZ is choosing Overpass as their first pick roughly 26% of the time lately and have won six of their last 10 there as well. However, Endpoint is on a four-game winning streak on Overpass as well but have only won seven of their last 12 there. Going to say that these two maps have a great chance of being the first two selected by these two, so let’s see who performs well on these for both teams. For Endpoint, on Dust2 over last three months (25 maps played online at Dust2), CRUC1AL tops the list with a hefty 1.34 rating, 0.83 KPR, 74.9 Kill-Asst%, 1.50 IMPACT, and 84.5 ADR, not to mention a nice 0.58 DPR. Next, Surreal sits at 1.30 rating, 0.82 KPR, 75.2 Kill-Ass%, 1.37 IMP, 86.9 ADR. Robiin sits at a 1.11 rating, Thomas at 1.06, and MIGHTYMAX at 0.99. For Overpass, Thomas tops the team with a 1.24 Rating, 0.82 KPR, 76.0 Kill-Asst%, 1.26 IMP, 88.9 ADR, followed by CRUC1Al with 1.08, Surreal also with 1.08, and robiin with 1.07. Now, let’s look at AVEZ for both maps. For Dust2 (3 maps played), Kylar leads with a small 1.01 rating, and he is the only one to top 1.0. KEi and his 0.95 rating is the only other option above a 0.90 rating as well. For Overpass (10 maps played), we have much better numbers, led by KEi and a 1.25 rating, 0.83 KPR, 73.7 Kill-Asst%, 1.21 IMP, 94.8 ADR (hefty). He is followed my Markos? At 1.23, Kylar at 1.18, and nawrot at 1.06. I have to go with the side of Endpoint here, as they have played more maps recently, and also have been playing quite well on what I feel are the projected map picks. Let’s talk options.
ANCHOR: CRUC1AL – (Over last 3 months all maps played online – 1.17 Rating, 0.75 KPR, 72.7 Kill-Asst%, 1.24 IMP, 75.4 ADR)
Top Stacking Options: CRUC1AL, Surreal, Thomas (robiin is value)
ANCHOR: KEi – (Over last 3 months all maps played online – 1.15 Rating, 0.78 KPR, 70.3 Kill-Asst%, 1.22 IMP, 87.7 ADR)
Top Stacking Options: KEi, Markos?, Kylar
Game 2 (Hellcase Cup 8)
Syman (Ranked 43rd in World) vs LDLC (Ranked 72nd in World)
As you can see above this is the one match we get from Hellcase Cup today, and it is a best of three for the opening Group A match. I got the luxury of watching Syman a little bit in the Road to Rio, and they let a lot of matches fall away, and were also able to beat a very good NaVi team as well. I believe the recent talent of competition could play a role in this match, as Syman has played the likes of Nemiga, Winstrike, NaVi, and Virtus.pro, while LDLC has been playing AGF, NAVI Junior, and a team called Pompa. Neither one of these teams comes into this match in great form, but again, must stress Syman has played quite better competition lately, and could see them bust out for this match after losing three of their last four. LDLC has only won one match in their last five, against Pompa. Need to note that they have played three maps in three of the five. It seems that the books are also thinking the same lines that I am as they have Syman sitting as almost a -300 favorite to win this match today. Also, found it quite interesting that the Over 2.5 maps is almost +150, meaning they don’t feel this match goes the distance, as the Under 2.5 Rounds is juiced way up to -185. Syman has been led by N0rb3r7 over the last three months with a 1.02 rating, followed by Keoz with a 1.00, these are they only two options for Syman to top 1.0 rating for that span. LDLC has two of their own sitting above that threshold with hAdiji at 1.15, and Sixer at 1.14. Let’s look at some maps.
The first bans are pretty clear in this one as Syman is banning Nuke almost 50% of the time lately, while LDLC is banning Overpass 40% of the time lately. The first picks have been Dust2 for LDLC (won 5 of last 7 there), and Infero for Syman (won 6 of last 10 there). Both of these maps give edges for the respective team choosing it, however, Syman has won 50% of their last 6 on Dust2, so not exactly a great edge for LDLC. I do believe these will be the two maps chosen. If somehow the third map were to play, I could see it being either Nuke or Train. Nuke favors neither, while Train is merely split with both winning upwards of 60% of their last tries there. Let’s see who performs at the projected map picks. For LDLC on Dust2 – Four of the five options sit atop a 1.06 rating on 4 maps played here, with hAiji sitting leading with a 1.21 Rating, 0.80 KPR, 1.36 IMP, 86.4 ADR, next is SIXER at 1.26, LOGAN at 1.18, and Gringo at 1.06. Dust2 has been a good map to them on a small sample size. For Inferno, only one option sits above a 1.0 rating for LDLC, and that is hAiji, who is posting a 1.14 rating, 0.79 KPR, 71.1 Kill-Asst%, 1.14 IMP, and 78 ADR over four recent map tries there). Let’s take a look at Syman on these two. On Dust2 for Syman - mou (is the main AWPer) leads the way interestingly with a 1.16 rating, 0.75 KPR, 72.2 Kill-Asst%, 1.21 IMP, 78.1 ADR. He is followed by Keoz being only other option above a 1.0 rating at 1.13. For Inferno (10 map sample) – N0rb3r7 sits at the top with a 1.12 rating, 0.74 KPR, 1.25 IMP, 79 ADR. Two others sit at or above a 1.0 rating for this map for Syman in neaLaN at 1.01 and Keoz at 1.00. Ill be flat out honest, if LDLC gets and takes the first map here, I could see Syman folding. Think there is some value on LDLC as a live dog. Let’s talk options.
ANCHOR: hAdiji – (Over last 3 months online – 1.12 Rating, 0.76 KPR, 69.1 Kill-Asst%, 1.17 IMP, 81.6 ADR)
Top Stacking Options: hAdiji, SIXER, LOGAN (value is Gringo)
ANCHOR: n0rb3r7 – (Over last 3 months online – 1.02 rating, 0.68 KPR, 1.07 IMP, 75.5 ADR)
Top Stacking Options: n0rb3r7, Keoz, mou
Nordavind (Ranked 48th in World) vs FATE (Ranked 63rd in World)
Back in the BLAST Rising series with another best of three quarter-final match here between the first seed in Group B in Nordavind, and the number two seed in Group C in FATE. Nordavind has only lost one match so far in this series, while FATE has lost two to their name. The round differential is nearly doubled by Nordavind, who are sitting with a +13 diff, while FATE sits with just +5, however, any plus round differential means you are playing well. Both of these teams come into this match in pretty good form, Fate has reeled off five straight winning matches, also beating Movistar Riders twice, and beating the leading of their group C as well in Jalapeno. Nordavind has won four of their last five, only dropping one match to Complexity, but beat a pretty big name in HAVU as well, so that is pretty legit. These two have faced off in two best of one match so far in 2020, with Nordavind claiming victory in both, and they were not exactly close as the results were 16-2 in their most recent, and 16-8 in the other. Both matches were played on Inferno. Per the betting odds, Nordavind is the heaviest favorite on the slate today sitting at -350 to win this match. Obviously, head-to-head history agrees with the favorite. It seems Fate has a new player on their team in Zix, who has played less than five matches with the other core players for their squad. For the event, Nord has four of their five options sitting at or above a 1.01 rating, led by TENZKI at 1.19, NaToSaphiX at 1.14, H4RR3, who was a new addition roughly a month ago at 1.07, and cromen rounding it out at 1.01. FATE has Three players above that threshold led by Duplicate at 1.24, mar at 1.07, and harn at 1.00. Let’s see what the maps have in store.
Both seem to be pretty dead-set on what maps they are banning lately, as FATE is banning Nuke close to 80%, while Nord is banning Train at about the same percentage. Interestingly enough, both are choosing Overpass as their first pick close to 30% of the time lately, and both have fared well winning around 60% of their last tries there. I could see Nord going with Mirage as their first pick, a map they have chosen 24% of the time lately and have won 62% of their last 20 tries there, and FATE has only played this map 5 times lately. Good be quite the edge there for Nord. Let’s see who is performing on these maps for these two teams. For Nord on Overpass (12 map sample) – TENZKI leads the way with a 1.20 rating, 0.78 KPR, 72.6 Kill-Asst%, 1.20 IMP, 88.8 ADR, followed by cromen with 1.18 rating, HS with 1.08, and NaTo with 1.03. On Mirage (24 map sample) – TENZKI tops the list again with a 1.10 rating, 0.70 KPR, 71.5 Kill-Asst%, and 81.7 ADR. Followed by NaTo at 1.10, HS at 1.05, and cromen at 1.0. For FATE on Overpass (13 map tries) – mar leads the list with 1.23 rating, 0.77 KPR, 74.7 Kill-Asst%, 1.32 IMP, and 89.7 ADR. Followed by Duplicate at 1.11 rating, and niki1 at 1.10. For Mirage (5 maps) – this has not been a good map to them lately, no one sits above a 1.0 rating, and mar is the closest at 0.95 rating. Have to favor Nord if this is how the map picks go, and even if Nord chooses Inferno, the map they have won on last two times they have played, have to still like Nord. Let’s talk options.
ANCHOR: TENZKI – (Online last 3 months – 1.07 rating, 0.70 KPR, 69.2 Kill-Asst%, 1.03 IMP, 79.2 ADR)
Top Stacking Options: TENZKI, NaToSaphiX, cromen
ANCHOR: mar – (Last 3 months online – 1.10 rating, 0.71 KPR, 70.9 Kill-Asst%, 1.09 IMP, 79.4 ADR)
Top Stacking Options: mar, Duplicate, niki1
***TOP PLAYS, STACKS, VALUES***
Top Plays: CRUC1AL, hAdiji, TENZKI, mar (ranked in order)
Top Stacks: Endpoint, LDLC, NORD, FATE, SYMAN, AVEZ (ranked in order)
Top Values Under $7K Salary: Marko?, NaToSaphiX, cromen, H4RR3, niki1, MIGHTYMAX, Surreal, Gringo (not ranked in order)