Esports DFS Playbook: CS:GO - May 16
Sean Mitchell breaks down Saturday's four-match slate and brings you his top plays for your DFS lineups.
Happy Saturday all! Hopefully, you guys have been cashing in on some CS:GO! Today we have a four-game slate beginning at 10:30 AM ET as we continue to wind down the Road to Rio event. Let’s hop right in!
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**TOP MONKEY KNIFE PLAYS:
1.) Rapid Fire - (First map of SYM vs NEM)
-KEOZ +0.5 Kills over Jyo
-lollipop21k +0.5 Kills over mds
2.) Rapid Fire - (First map of WIN vs HLE)
-El1an -0.5 Kills over Forester
-Krad +1.5 Kills over KrizzeN
Hard Legion (Ranked 35th in World) vs Winstrike (Ranked 39th in World)
The winner of this best of three semi-finals match will go on to the grand final and face Spirit. Hard Legion had a quarter-final bye round and is now meeting Winstrike after they swept Syman 2-0 in the quarters. Hard Legion was the number one seed for Group B, while Winstrike was the number two seed in Group A for the region. Hard Legion has had quite the run recently, beating a typically good team in NaVi with a 2-0 sweep, and winning four of their last five matches. Winstrike comes in with a huge confidence-boost after sweeping Syman as mentioned above but had previously dropped three of their last five, with all three losses being a sweep, and the two wins also via the sweep. These two have not faced off lately, but per the current betting odds, Winstrike is a -176 favorite to win this match. Winstrike is led by El1an, who has a 1.22 rating for the event so far, followed by Hobbit (1.07) and Bondik 1.04. Hard Legion has one top stud on the squad in Forester, who is carrying a team-high 1.09 Rating for the Road to Rio event, while no one else on his squad is eclipsing the 1.0 plateau. rAge is the closest at 0.99. Let’s see if we can find any map trends for an edge.
For the first ban picks, HL is choosing to ban Nuke over 80% of the time recently, while WIN is choosing Inferno over 80% as well. The first map choices have been Overpass for HL (won 53% on last 15 tries), and Vertigo for WIN (71% win rate over the last seven tries). Vertigo is a def edge for WIN, as Legion has only won one of their last three map plays there. Overpass has been decent to WIN, as they have won two of there last three tries there, but it is a map they have not played much as well compared to others. I wouldn’t be surprised to see HL go with Mirage instead over Overpass, as it has been a map they have won four of their last six on while Winstrike has only won four of their last nine tries there. Let’s see how some players are doing on these map choices. For Overpass, Legion has a couple of guys that have played well there over their last 15 tries there, led by Krad with a 1.17 Rating, 0.81 KPR, 1.31 IMP, 85.4 ADR, and Forester with a 1.13 Rating, 0.76 KPR, 1.15 IMP, 80.0 ADR. rAge is playing above-average there as well with a 1.07 Rating. For Vertigo for Legion, need I remind that Legion has only played this map three times in the last three months, does not look great. Have rAge (1.03), svyat (1.01), and Krad (1.0) all sitting about average or a smidge above. Now, let’s see how WIN is doing on these two maps. For Overpass, they have been quite good, with four of their five over 1.02 rating, led by El1an with a hefty 1.26 rating, 0.77 KPR, 0.51 DPR, 1.33 IMP, 74.1 ADR, and Hobbit with a 1.08 Rating, 0.68 KPR, 1.17 IMP, 73 ADR. On Vertigo, which could likely be their map pick, four-of-the-five player options have a 1.09 Rating of higher. El1an sits with a 1.22 rating, bondik with a 1.17 rating, Hobbit with 1.12 and Lack1 with a 1.09. After viewing the potential player stats on what I feel could be the map choices, I am going to be siding with the chalk here and Winstrike.
ANCHOR: Forester – (Easily been their top guy, 0.75 KPR is very solid, 71.2 Kill-Asst%, 1.15 IMP, 80.9 ADR)
Top Stacking Options: Forester, Krad, rAge
ANCHOR: El1an – (rating is hefty, he is a complete stud and I really like him in this match. 0.75 KPR is solid as well, 0.56 DPR is very impressive also)
Top Stacking Options: El1an, hobbit, bondik (Lack1 is nice value)
Nemiga (Ranked 41st in World) vs Syman (Ranked 43rd in World)
This best of three match will decide the 5th and 6th place for this region. The difference in prize money and points between the two places is $1,000 and an extra 100 RMR points. Not just a big pay-jump, but when you are playing these events for sponsorship and such, every match and every prize dollar likely counts pretty bigly. This match seems to be pretty split by the current betting odds as the book has Nemiga as a small -120 favorite to win. Syman had been on a decent little run as they beat NaVi 2-1, along with Espada as well, and had won three of their last five before dropping the match to Winstrike in their most recent match. Nemiga has been a bit of a mixed bag, as they have won three of their last four, but against some weaker competition. They did beat Gambit Youngsters but lost to both Spirit and Virtus.pro. These two teams have squared off once in recent memory, a best of three for SECTOR:MOSTBET back in 2019, where Nemiga won with a 2-1 result. First to maps were very close as map one (Inferno) went into OT before Nemiga closed it out 19-15, and map two (Mirage) was a 16-14 decider by Syman. Nemiga rolled on map three (Dust2) 16-4. Nemiga carries in four of their five player options with a 1.02 rating or higher for the event so far, with lollipop21k sitting atop with a 1.13 followed by jyo with a 1.07, and speed4k with a 1.06. Syman has only two players over a 1.0 for the event with Keoz sitting at 1.08 and mou sitting at 1.04. Let’s see if the maps give an edge.
The first ban map picks are Nuke for Syman and Train for Nemiga. Train is one of the better maps for Syman lately, so this hurts a bit. While Nuke has also not been a great map for Nemiga either as they have only won 33% of their last 12 tries there. Interestingly, both squads have been choosing Inferno quite a bit lately with their first picks. Another map that Syman has chosen roughly 30% of the time is Overpass, however this map is quite in favor of Nemiga as they have won 6 of their last 8 tries there, while Syman has only won four of their last 12 there. I believe Syman will get the first choice of map and likely go with Inferno, which these two are virtually split on lately, and I believe Nemiga will choose Mirage, as they have won six straight there and six of their last seven tries. Let’s see who is performing well on these two maps. For Inferno, four of Nemiga’s player options sit with a 1.04 or better. Led by lollipop2k with a 1.11 rating, 0.70 KPR, 74.6 Kill-Asst%, next is Jyo with a 1.10 rating, followed by speed4k with 1.07 and boX with the 1.04. On Mirage, similar story, except ALL player options for Nemiga sit atop a 1.02 or better rating. Led by lolli with 1.15, Jyo with 1.09, Speed4k with 1.08, boX with 1.05, and mds lastly with 1.02. For Syman on Inferno – only three stand out here with n0rb3r7 leading with a 1.12 rating, 0.74 KPR, 1.25 IMP, neaLan is next with a 1.01 rating, followed by Keoz with a 1.00. On Mirage, Keoz is the lead with 1.11 rating, hefty 0.80 KPR, and 80.8 ADR, followed by neaLan sitting with 1.02 and that rounds out any above 1.0 for Mirage. I really have to side with Nemiga here, as I feel they are the slightly better overall team, and the map picks do favor them quite well also. Let’s talk about options.
ANCHOR: lollipop2k – (Easily their strongest player lately, sits with the highest rating on a team for the event, 0.73 KPR is solid, asst% of 73.3% is above average, and his 80.1 ADR is solid as well)
Top Stacking Options: lollipop2k, Jyo, Speed4k
ANCHOR: Keoz – (looks to be one of the stronger players for projected map picks, 1.03 rating, 75.9 ADR, 0.68 KPR all decent numbers)
Top Stacking Options: Keoz, n0rb3r7, neaLaN
G2 (Ranked 6th in World) vs FaZe (Ranked 7th in World)
The first big match of the day comes with a best of three series in the consolidation final and a chance to play Astralis in the Grand final on Sunday. G2 was beaten in a full three-map affair by Vitality who took home 4th place and a swift $10k prize. FaZe lost a pretty bad match to Astralis, but no fears, Astralis is really just that good. FaZe has been incredible all event long, and much credit to them. Today, they get a match with a familiar foe in G2, and G2 stands in the way of a potential rematch for FaZe with Astralis with a chance for first place and $33k in prize money. These two have faced off twice in 2020 so far, and once in this same event, with FaZe winning their most recent match in a 2-0 sweep. The match before, G2 won a 2-1 series result. Dust 2 is a pretty replicated map for these two squads, and it has been very favorable to FaZe as they have played it in every match and G2 won it a total of one time. Train only showed up twice in these matches as well and was won both times by G2 to boot. Faze is the current favorite to win according to the book as a -146 favorite. Gotta believe FaZe badly want the rematch with Astralis after getting swept by them a day ago. Both teams have been playing amazing, and I expect a pretty good match here, as this is a revenge spot for G2 also who was swept by FaZe as mentioned above. Let’s see what maps are looking like for these two.
Already knew FaZe was a big banner of Vertigo, and G2 typically bans Overpass. FaZe has executed Mirage well lately and have picked Mirage first almost 40% of the time lately, not to mention their nine-map win streak there as well. Dust2 has been a familiar map pick for G2 roughly 60% of the time lately, but as mentioned above, it has not been good to G2 in their prior matches. I think we see Mirage and Dust2 as the map choices, in which you can see favor FaZe with recent play and recent head-to-head matches. Let’s see who is performing the best on these two maps. For FaZe on Dust2, Niko leads the way with a hefty 1.34 rating, 0.80 KPR, 76.7 Kill-Asst%, 1.33 IMP, 88.6 ADR, followed by Colzera with a 1.21 Rating, and rain sits with a 1.18 rating. For Mirage, NiKo sits atop again with a 1.24 rating, next is coldzera with 1.22, broky with 1.18, rain with 1.15, and even Olof has a 1.07. Been a very good map for them. Now, let’s see what G2 has looked like. On Dust2, they are led by nexa with a 1.14 rating, then KennyS with a 1.09 and huNter- with a 1.08. On Mirage, huNter- sticks out big-time with a 1.33 rating, 0.87 KPR, 1.53 IMP, 97.2 ADR. Followed up by JaCkZ with a 1.13 and KennyS with a 1.09.
ANCHOR: huNter- (highest upside guy they have)
Top Stacking Options: huNter- , nexa, KennyS (JaCkZ for value)
ANCHOR: Niko – (no brainer, map choices are in his favor and he is an absolute stud)
Top Stacking Options: Niko, Coldzera, Rain/Broky
GODSENT (Ranked 20th in World) vs North (Ranked 22nd in World)
This best of three series is a decider match for the 7th and 8th place in the respective region. Per the betting odds, GODSENT comes in as the favorite here as a -180 favorite to grab the 7th place slot and a smooth $6k in prize money. It is a $1k prize jump from 8th to 7th, so loser of this will still go home with $5k in prize money. It seems that North is still without the services of one of their core members in Kjaerbye, as Jumpy who has been a stand-in player for essentially North’s last 3-4 matches is still slotted to play this one as well. These two teams faced off in this event once already, as it went the full distance with three maps and GODSENT pulled out a 2-1 victory. North has been basically carried by Aizy, who sits with a 1.16 Rating for the event so far, with only MSL sitting above a 1.0 at 1.07 as the only other teammate above that threshold. GODSENT is backed by three solid players so far in this event in zehN (1.14 rating), Maden (1.09 Rating) and STYKO (1.08 Rating). Let’s see if the maps have justice.
Seems that the first typical bans for these two is the same map in Mirage, however Train has been banned also by North around 35% of the time, so we can likely exclude these two. Vertigo has been a popular pick for North as they have chosen to play there as their pick 42% lately, and GODSENT has been going with Overpass, a may that they have won roughly 60% lately, while North has only won two of their last five on. Vertigo favors North by a good margin, with Overpass favoring GODSENT by a decent margin as well. I could easily see this match going three full maps once again. Let’s talk options.
ANCHOR: zehN – (head and shoulders above the team for the event so far with 1.14 rating, 0.72 KPR, 71.9 Kill-Asst%, 1.06 IMP, 79.8 ADR)
Top Stacking Options: zehN, Maden, STYKO
ANCHOR: AIzy – (Likely a top three selection here for me on this slate – 1.14 rating, 0.76 KPR, 1.21 IMP, 82.5 ADR)
Top Stacking Options: aizy, MSL, gade (cajunb for value)
***TOP PLAYS, STACKS, VALUES***
Top Plays: Niko, Aizy, huNter-, El1an, lollipop21k (ranked in order)
Top Stacks: Nemiga, Winstrike, FaZe, GODSENT, G2, North, Hard Legion, Syman (ranked in order)
Top Values Under $7k Salary: nexa, speed4k, Lack1, boX, rain, gade, JacKz