Esports DFS Playbook: CS:GO - May 15
Sean Mitchell breaks down Friday's two-match slate and brings you his top plays for your DFS lineups.
As we inch closer to the playoffs, we get another really good day of CS:GO matches! Again, I will be covering the two-game slate that begins at 10:30 AM ET. Super pumped for these matches, so let’s jump right in.
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**TOP MONKEY KNIFE PLAYS**
Check back in morning!
Vitality (Ranked in World) vs G2 (Ranked in World)
This match will present the winner of the lower-bracket and who will also be moving into the playoffs of the Road to Rio event. Vitality won a wild one yesterday against NiP that saw multiple Over-times and also saw all three maps total. It took OT on every map, but Vitality showed a ton of resiliency and have to give the credit where the credit it due. Shox stepped up bigly along side the stud of the team in zyw0o, who had multiple clutch kills when it came to crunch time. These two combined for literally 3/4s of the teams kills it felt like, and shox has really been good lately. G2 got the job done as well, but it was a close one as it also went the full distance with an OT before G2 secured the win over Heretics. Heretics looked very strong on map three of inferno, however, after half-time G2 turned on the jets and brought the score knotted and eventually won 16-14. This match should be a really good one, as both have been playing at really high levels lately. They don’t have much of a history, played one match in the start of 2019 with Vitality taking the match 2-1, but it did go the full distance, with an OT on map 2. I expect nothing less than a very close match here, as I think both squads will go back-and-forth here. Let’s see if there are any map edges.
Looks like both are pretty dead set on G2 banning Overpass (no harm for VIT), and Vitality banning Train (no harm to G2). The first picks for each have been Dust2 for G2 roughly 60% of the time, and their map pick today against Heretics. I think however that G2 could likely go with Vertigo, as this is a map they have won 6 of their last seven, it has also been their first map choice around 22% of the time lately as well. VIT has also had a nice small-sample track record lately on Vertigo, winning their last three of four there, but VIT has also won 60% on Dust two in their last ten tries, as well as a four-map winning streak there. I believe IF G2 goes Vertigo, VIT will likely go with Dust2. IF they don’t, it could likely be Inferno, but this is a map that G2 has won 5 of their last 6 on, so pretty confident we get Vertigo and Dust 2 as the map choices if my logic is rationale. Just some quick notes for each map I feel is selected, on Dust2, VIT is led by Zyw0o obviously with a 1.23 rating, 0.76 KPR, 76.2 Kill-Asst%, with shox coming in nicely in second and by a decent margin from the 3rd ranked (RpK 0.94 Rating) with a 1.18 Rating, 0.73 KPR, 82.3 ADR). That sample is over last ten times played at Dust 2. For just four small map tries on Vertigo for VIT, RpK actually leads with a 1.19 Rating, 0.81 KPR, 73.6 Kill-Asst%, 80.1 ADR, followed by Misutaaa at 1.18 Rating, 0.80 KPR, 70.0 Kill-Asst%, and 82.9 ADR. Interestingly enough, Zywh0o only has a 0.86 Rating over his last four at Vertgio. Now, for G2 on Dust2, over their last 10 map tries, huNter- leads all with a 1.10 Rating, 0.72 KPR, 82.0 ADR, followed by Nexa at 1.10 Rating, 76.2 Kill-Asst%, 0.66 KPR, 72 ADR). KennyS has a 1.08 Rating, and Jackz and amanek both a 1.01 on the map. For Vertigo, over their last six tries there, KennyS has a 1.60 Rating, 1.00 KPR, 0.47 DPR, 79.5 Kill-Asst%, 97.1 ADR, followed by Nexa at 1.29 Rating, 0.73 KPR, 0.53 DPR, 76.7 Kill-Asst%, 79.5 ADR, with BOTH huNter- and AmaNEk both sitting at 1.23. It would be very smart of G2 to go with Vertigo as their map choice. Let’s talk options.
ANCHOR: zyw0o – (Just a no brainer, clearly one of the top players on the server right now, had 120+ DK points in the CPT spot yesterday)
Top Stacking Options: zyw0o, shox, apEX
ANCHOR: huNter- - (Just think huNter- is the most consistent player on this team, led them to a win yesterday on map three, and he has clutch and 4k-5k potential on every round. Major upside player)
Top Stacking Options: huNter-, Nexa, KennyS
Astralis (Ranked 1st in World) vs FaZe (Ranked 7th in World)
Both top teams here sit atop of their Group play and I could not be more excited for this match. Both of these teams have been extremely good for this event and FaZe has yet to lose even though they were literally taken the distance in their most recent match against NiP. Astralis has not exactly had much struggle so far in this event, they have lost one match out of the total events played but that was to Fnatic, the 2nd ranked team in the World. Per the betting odds, Astralis is the favorite to win this match and are currently listed at -230 on the money line. These two teams are very familiar with each other and have only played just one time so far in 2020 being a 2-0 sweep for Astralis. Astralis has also just about doubled their games won total compared to FaZe in their prior head-to-head matches at a 23 to 12 clip. Out of their last five matches, Astralis has swept three of the five. Let’s look at some plausible map picks.
FaZe has wanted nothing to do with Vertigo, and same with Astralis on Mirage, which hurts the chances for FaZe as it has been one of their better maps overall, as they have won their last nine straight there. This could leave FaZe choosing Nuke most likely, and if they do not, Astralis will as it has been their first pick roughly 44% of the time lately. IF they elect to go differently, which may very well be the case, Dust2 has been a top three map for them lately, and it has been picked by FaZe first close to 30% of the time. I could see Astralis going with Nuke, or Inferno. Both of which they have been good on, however they have won six straight on Inferno. I could also see Astralis doing what NiP did and going with Overpass, as FaZe has only won 38% of their last eight tries there, with Astralis winning seven of their last 10. I hate to say it, but Astralis has really owned them in previous matches, and the last few games have been complete beat downs by Astralis. Hoping FaZe comes ready to play. Let’s talk player options.
ANCHOR: Magisk – (Has been top 1-2 fragger in past 6 matches played. 1.16 Rating, 0.71 KPR, 74.7 Kill-Asst%, 1.09 IMPACT, 80.7 ADR)
Top Stacking Options: Magisk, Device, Xyp9x
ANCHOR: NiKo – (Over last month online – 1.19 Rating, 0.76 KPR, 72.5 Kill-Asst%, 1.20 IMPACT, 84.3 ADR)
Top Stacking Options: NiKo, Coldzera, Rain (broky value)
***TOP PLAYS, STACKS, VALUES***
Top Plays: huNter-, zywh0o, Magisk/Device, NiKo (ranked in order)
Top Stacks: Astralis, G2, Vitality, FaZe (ranked in order)
Top Values: Gla1ve, mistuhaaa, JacKz, apEx, Rain, dupreeh