Got a weird set-up of games, and we will likely start to see this more as the slates begin to shrink with these teams getting closer to the playoffs from the upper and lower brackets of the final Road to Rio teams. However, this slate starts early once again, and yes it does suck, but guess what? You damn well better still play it, as well am I. Let’s get to it! This is ONLY for the 10:30 AM start 2-game slate.
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1.) Rapid Fire - (First map of FaZe vs NiP)
-Plopski +1.5 Kills over Niko
-Coldzera -1.5 Kills over Rain
2.) More/Less - (First map of Astralis vs G2)
-Magisk Over 18.5 Kills
-KennyS Over 18.5 Kills
3.) Promo Pick - More/Less (first map of FaZe vs NiP):
-Coldzera Over 19.5 Kills
-REZ Under 17.5 Kills
Game 1
FaZe (Ranked 7th in World) vs NiP (Ranked 11th in World)
We get a match from the upper-bracket in a best of three here with Faze (1st seed in Group B) vs NiP (2nd seed in Group A). This should be a really fun match to be quite honest. FaZe has yet to lose the whole Road to Rio event, while NiP has only lost once so far, and that was to Astralis, who sits in first for Group A. Both of these teams come in with great form obviously and FaZe sits with a +76 insane round differential for the event, while NiP sits with a +69. This match should be very close, I would expect it to go back in forth quite a bit and could easily see three maps. Per the betting odds currently, it is FaZe that is a -150 favorite to win this match, and I feel that line is correct, Faze has been playing at such a high level this whole event. FaZe has literally hid the monster in their closet that was finishing games off when they had nice leads, and they literally have done nothing but that the whole event. NiP has played very well also, winning four of their last five, with not a sweep in sight, but only losing to Astralis, and took it to three maps as well. FaZe has three sweeps to their name out of their last five matches, and one of those was Mousesports, the fourth ranked team in the World. I hate to say it, but FaZe has been unbeatable this event, and if they can continue to play as a full, overall unit, they won’t be beaten at all. NiP has the make-up to do so, as they have beat them before. These two faced off once so far this year, and twice in 2020 in the BLAST Series where both teams swapped a 2-0 sweep in their last two matches, with claiming both of the prior matches by a 3-0 game clip. However, all of these matches have been relatively close, well, except for the most recent where FaZe took it to them with game wins of 16-8, and 16-7. I expect this match to be close, but the history shows that a 2-0 sweep could easily be in the books. I still like FaZe, they have been my boys all event long and going to ride that wagon until the wheels fall off. I just feel their team has been so rock solid lately, and they seemed to be dialed-in. Let’s talk player options. Need I remind you that FaZe has every single player option at a 1.02 Rating or higher so far for this event? That includes Coldzera and Broky leading with a 1.22 a piece and Niko sitting at 1.19! NiP doesn’t have a player option above 1.14 (Plopski), and I don’t feel they have the same star-power in multiple players as FaZe does in Broky, Coldzera, and Niko. Even Rain had a ballin’ match last time out. This team is just too good when they are all clicking at once, or at least when the 3-5th options are picking up slack as well.
FAZE:
ANCHOR: coldzera – (Event – 1.22 Rating, 0.78 Kills per Round, 76.9 Kill-Asst%, 1.15 IMPACT, 79.3 ADR)
Top Stacking Options: coldzera, Broky, Niko (rain for value again)
NiP:
ANCHOR: Plopski – (Event – 1.14 Rating, 0.73 Kills per Round, 73.9 Kill-Asst%, 1.14 IMPACT, 80.7 ADR)
Top Stacking Options: Plopski, Nawwk, Lekr0 (REZ for value)
Game 2
Astralis (Ranked 1st in World) vs G2 (Ranked 6th in World)
These are such good matches for this two-game best of three upper-bracket semis slate! We get not only the first top seed in Group A in Astralis here, but the number one team in the World facing off G2 who was the second seed in Group B, and the sixth best team in the World currently. What a match this should be. Astralis comes in as quite the hefty favorite here for this semi-final match at a -260 clip to win it. It makes sense, as Astralis has had G2’s number in the past as well. They played three separate times in 2019, with Astralis only losing one of the six games played. The most recent was in the ESL Pro League, where G2 was able to steal the first map in Dust2, eventually allowing for a third map. Astralis won the 2nd map of Inferno in OT at 19-15 result. Third map was a barn-burner also with Astralis prevailing the winner with a 16-14 final. So, to say that these matches were close, is quite the contrary. G2 has been really good this whole event as well, winning four of the seven matches so far played and carrying a +30-round differential. Astralis has only one loss this event and sits with a hefty +57-round differential. I have to side with the favorite here, as Astralis is just so damn good as a team. G2 should make this interesting, but my money would be going on Astralis, and I honestly think that number is a bit short. I would have Astralis around -350 in my honest opinion. Let’s talk player options.
ASTRALIS:
ANCHOR: Device – (Last month online – 1.17 Rating, 0.78 Kills per Round, 70.8 Kill-Asst%, 1.27 IMPACT, 79.2 ADR)
Top Stacking Options: Device, Magisk, Xyp9x (Dupreeh is due for a bounce-back also)
G2:
ANCHOR: KennyS – (Last month online – 1.23 Rating, 0.58 Deaths per Round, 73.8 Kill-Asst%, 0.76 Kills per Round, 1.22 IMPACT, 77.8 ADR)
Top Stacking Options: KennyS, huNter-, nexa
***TOP PLAYS, STACKS, VALUES***
Top Plays: coldzera, Niko, Device, KennyS, Broky, Plopski
Top Stacks: FaZe, Astralis, NiP, G2
Top Values Under $7k Salary: huNter-, Rain, nawwk, nexa, lekr0