eSports DFS Playbook: CS:GO - April 29
Sean Mitchell breaks down Wednesday's six-match Counter Strike Global Offensive DFS slate and gives you his top plays and strategies for your lineup construction.
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The Road to Rio continues on for the Wednesday, and we have another 6-game main slate on tap for today! Hope you enjoy, and let’s get right down to it!
Dignitas (Ranked 47th in World) vs Vitality (Ranked 9th in World)
Dignitas will likely be riding quite the high as they throttle Fnatic on the third and final map of a best of three in yesterday’s Road to Rio slate but a 2-1 result. On the other hand, Vitality had a very tough match against a top five team in the world in Astralis, and they did not come out quite as happy as Dignitas. However, I gained a lot of respect for Dignitas, who is formed of by mainly “older” players still on the server, as their average age on their squad is 28 years of age, so it was kind of nice to see the old guys like myself take down a top five team. Not to say that Fnatic is a bunch of young guns, because that is far from the truth as well, but Fnatic are multi-championship winners. Nonetheless, Vitality is not a bad team either, they just got out-worked by Astralis, a team that was fresh off a loss of their own, so it was kind of the perfect storm. However, Vitality did beat a decent Complexity team before losing to Astralis, so no need to discount them very heavily, not to mention they are ranked 9th in the World currently as well. I believe on paper, throwing out World rankings, these two teams are quite evenly matched to be honest. Vitality relies heavily on mainly 2-3 players, being ZywOo, RpK, and apex. Dignitas have a more complete team in my eyes, and guys with tons of experience on the server as mentioned above, and are led by GeT_RigHt, hallzerk, and f0rest, but friberg has been good as well. Interestingly enough, per the betting odds, Vitality is quite the hefty favorite at a 3.6-to-1 clip as well. However, the “public” picking percentages are roughly even split with more picks coming in on Dignitas.
Let’s talk about some map analysis. For both of these teams, their first picks are map Nuke for both. However, both are on a four-map losing streak here, but DIG has won 6 of their last ten here, but have lost their last four consecutive tries. Vitality is only winning Nuke at a 38% clip in their last eight tries. The two being banned first for these squads is Mirage for DIG, and Train for VIT, and these two really don’t move the needle much for either as they have been meh at best on these. This leaves us with Dust2, Inferno, and Overpass as potential 2nd and 3rd map selections. Assuming one picks Nuke, upper-hand goes to DIG as mentioned above, Overpass is a map both have had decent success on, however DIG has won two of their last three there, while Dust2 could be the decider. Dust2 has not been great for either, as both are winning this map at less than 40% in 13 combined tries. I still give this match to DIG in my opinion. Let’s talk player options.
ANCHOR: Hallzerk – (1.16 Rating 2.0 for this event so far – 0.63 Deaths per Round, 68.1 Kill-Asst%, 1.15 IMPACT, 0.68 Kills per Round, 72. ADR)
Top Stacking Options: hallzerk, GeT_RiGhT, f0rest (friberg in there for value)
ANCHOR: ZywOo – (1.18 Rating 2.0, 0.60 Deaths per Round, 75.7 Kill-Asst%, 0.75 Kills per Round, 77.1 ADR)
Top Stacking Options: ZywOo, RpK, shox
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ENCE (Ranked 25th in World) vs Complexity (Ranked 26th in World)
Both of these teams fought pretty damn hard in their last matches, but both came up losers on the battles. Complexity showed a ton of compassion as they took Heretics down to the absolute wire, however in the end it was not enough as Heretics came back from a 0-7 round deficit in the third map to rally to beat Complexity in double-overtime in a 2-1 losing result. ENCE was able to steal a map from NiP on the second map, making this one go this distance as well, however NiP took care of business in map three and came away with the 2-1 victory as well. Have to wonder how much mental strain it puts on a team to go through a grueling three map battle with around 3-4 overtimes, trying to stay as focused as possible, and that is exactly what Complexity did. Gained some respect for them as they got torched quite badly on map one, came back and won map two quite easily, and fought down to wire on three. I have to side with Ence in this one, just because I think this was a heart-breaker for Complexity to be honest. Complexity still searching for their first victory in what will be their last four matches, while ENCE will also look to get back on track as they have dropped their last two matches, one being to Heretics also, but were swept 2-0 to those cats. The betting odds are favoring Complexity in this one however, as they come into this match as 1.5-to-1 favorite to win.
The map analysis for this match is pretty clear-cut, they are both banning Vertigo as often as possible lately, and they are both choosing Mirage with their first picks. Complexity has won Mirage 67% of the time over their last 12 tries, while ENCE has only played there twice lately, while also using Train as their first pick 33% of the time. Train has not exactly been a winning map for them either only winning on Train in three of their last six. Complexity however, has not been great on Train, only winning one of their last three. So, I could see the two map picks being Mirage and Train (or Nuke for Complexity), and the third map could land on Overpass or Dust2. I honestly don’t think the map analysis plays just a huge part here, but I still believe that I am siding with the dog in this fight with ENCE. Let’s talk players.
ANCHOR: Allu – (77 kills in yesterdays match with NiP, also died the least amount at 58 times on the team. Carried a hefty 1.28 Rating, 73.5 Kill-Asst%, and 87.5 (team-leading) ADR)
Top Stacking Options: Allu, Sergej, SuNny
ANCHOR: k0nfig – (going right back to the well here, as he had an off-day yesterday, and I’m expecting the bounce-back – 1.01 Rating for past month, 0.73 Kills per Round, 70.0 Kill-Asst%, 74.8 ADR)
Top Stacking options: k0nfig, poizon, blameF (can use oBo for value)
Fnatic (Ranked in 1st World) vs Heretics (Ranked 30th in World)
Welp, been riding the Heretics train for days now, and ill admit its been quite a nice ride. The ride could potentially end tomorrow as they face off against the number on team in the World in Fnatic. Fnatic more than likely have quite the sour taste in their mouths after getting dealt a 1-2 loss to the hands of Dignitas in yesterday’s slate. Heretics come in on a four-game winning streak, but only one of those four was due to a 2-0 sweep with the other three being taken the distance of three maps. We have to believe that this will be a major bounce-back spot for Fnatic. They are too good for it not to be, and likely, yesterday’s loss to DIG could potentially lower some of their ownership? We shall see. These teams have not played any at all recently, so don’t have any head-to-head info to provide, and as much as I love the Heretics, the maps do not favor them. Per the betting odds, Fnatic come in as one of the larger favorites on this slate at a 4.5-to-1 favorite. The Heretics will finally get a true test. Let’s talk player options.
ANCHOR: Krimz – (Leads team in Kill-Asst%, 1.12 Rating over last month, 0.72 Kills per Round, 78.3 ADR)
Top Stacking Options: Krimz, Flusha, Brollan (JW has been decent lately and has value)
ANCHOR: Maka – (Dude has just been stupid good lately. 1.25 Rating, 0.58 Deaths per Round, 72.2 Kill-Asst%, 1.40 IMPACT!!, 79.6 ADR, 0.77 Kills per Round over last month)
Top Stacking Options: Maka, Nivera, Lucky (KioShiMa for value again)
Liquid (Ranked 5th in World) vs Envy (Ranked 39th in World)
Envy had quite the easy opponent in their most recent match vs a Yeah team that is, well not very good. The good teams they have faced lately they have lost, swept 0-2 by a mediocre Bad News Bears team, and loss 1-2 results to FURIA and Cloud9. Liquid is good. They are very good. They have won all five of their last five, sweeping both MiBR and Evil Geniuses (twice) in their last five. This could be one of the major factors in why Liquid comes in to this match as an 8-to-1 favorite, but I honestly think that is free money. Envy just doesn’t have the chops as a team to play with Liquid, who are pretty elite. Liquid are backed by two hefty players in NAF (1.34 rating for event) and EliGe (1.26 Rating for event), while Twistzz and Stewie2k both sport over 1.01 ratings as well for the event. Not to take away from Envy, as four of their five have over 1.06 Ratings, led by Calyx with 1.18 and MICHU at 1.13. I’m not even going to go over map analysis, as Liquid can easily win any map. The kicker will be if Envy can steal one, and that’s the only way they will have a chance in this match. Let’s talk player options.
ANCHOR: EliGe – (no-brainer – 1.26 Rating last month online, 0.64 Deaths per Round, 69.9 Kill-Asst%, 1.40 IMPACT, 0.83 Kills per Round!!, 90.0 ADR)
Top Stacking Options: EliGe, NAF, Stewie2k (Twistzz for value)
ANCHOR: Calyx – (1.14 Rating, 0.77 Kills per Round, 71.8 Kill-Asst%, 1.15 IMPACT, 83.6 ADR)
Top Stacking Options: Calyx, MICHU, Nifty
Bad News Bears (Ranked 31st in World) vs MiBR (Ranked 15th in World)
These two teams have actually played in 2020, but it was not this same Bad News Bears name, they were the Riot Squad, and they were handed a 1-2 loss at the hands of this same MIBR team in this match. However, must mention that BNBs were able to win double-digit rounds in their losses. Honestly, I don’t like this BNBs team very much. I really think they are quite poopy garbage. If dapr isn’t hitting his shots, they are much like the build of Cloud9. Except their 2nd-3rd options like Mitch and jonji are not as good as oSee and motm flat out. Think this is quite an easy 2-0 sweep for MIBR, unless they come in piddling like they did last match, however that was a 0-2 sweep by Liquid, so I will highly be expecting a pretty pissed off MIBR team here. The betting odds are not exactly much in the favor of MIBR as I would have expected them to be, as they are only currently sitting as 2.5-to-1 favorite to win this match. The talent levels of the overall teams is a disparity here in my eyes. Going straight to player options.
BAD NEWS BEARS
ANCHOR: dapr – (1.24 Rating for event, 70.3 Kill-Asst%, 1.20 IMPACT, 82.7 ADR, 0.75 Kills per Round)
Top Stacking Options: dapr, jonji, ptr
ANCHOR: FalleN – (no-brainer, this guy is god-like on the CSGO server)
Top Stacking Options: FalleN, Fer, Taco/KnGv-
FURIA (Ranked 11th in World) vs Yeah (Ranked 60th in World)
I’ll be honest, I am not 100% sure how Yeah even got into the Road to Rio event. They could possibly be the worst team I have seen so far in this tournament. In their last two matches, against real competition, they have been swept 2-0 by both Envy and MIBR. Today they get a FURIA team that has won four of their last five matches, two of those five by the 2-0 sweep, and one of those sweeps was over MIBR. You be the judge. FURIA is THE largest favorite on this slate, and really for good reason, as they come in as a whopping -1350 favorite to win this match. I would not be shocked in the least bit to see them 2-0 sweep this match, with Yeah maybe winning a total of 13 rounds in both games. That’s just how bad I think Yeah is and compared to the level of competition that FURIA is. Don’t need map options, as this one doesn’t matter. Going straight to player options.
ANCHOR: KSCERATO – (1.23 Rating, 0.76 Kills per Round, 0.55 Deaths per Round, 76.0 Kill-Asst%, 1.14 IMPACT, 80.1 ADR)
Top Stacking Options: KSCERATO, HEN1, Yuurih
ANCHOR: Dumau – (FOR THE PAST MONTH – 0.93 Rating, 62.3 Kill-Asst%, 0.96 IMPACT, 71.1 ADR, 0.66 Kills per Round, and this is the best guy they have. Not. GOOD.)
Top Stacking Options: Just don’t.
***TOP PLAYS, STACKS, VALUES***
Top Plays: EliGE, FalleN, KSCERATO, Calyx, Allu, zywOo
Top Stacks: MiBR, FURIA, DIGNITAS, Liquid, ENCE, Fnatic
Top Values Under $7K Salary: k0nfig, hallzerk, sergej, nifty, MICHU, sunny, TACO
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**TOP MONKEY KNIFE FIGHT PROPS:
1.) More/Less - (Map one of ENCE vs Complexity)
-allu OVER 19.5 Kills
-k0nfig OVER 19.5 Kills
Pays 2.5 to 1
2.) More/Less - (Map one of Dignitas vs Vitality)
-f0rest UNDER 18.5 Kills
-shox UNDER 18.5 Kills
Pays 2.5 to 1
3.) PROMO PICK - (More/Less - UNI vs EUR)
-JDC UNDER 19.5 Kills
-MaRKy UNDER 18.5 Kills