eSports DFS Playbook: CS:GO - April 25
Sean Mitchell gives you the best plays and top strategies for Saturday's three-game CS:GO slate.
Welcome back, FANation! We have yet another CSGO Road to Rio slate for Saturday, April 25th. It seems that DraftKings split the slate up, as they have a 2-game slate beginning at 9 AM ET, and then a 3-game slate starting at 12:30 PM ET also. I will be covering both slates here, so will be a total of five match-ups. Without further ado, let’s get to it!
Astralis (Ranked 2nd in World) vs Fnatic (Ranked 3rd in World)
Here we get two top five teams in the world facing off in a best of three series, and this one should absolutely be a beauty of a game of CSGO! Astralis has been near un-beatable lately, and Fnatic just dropped their last match to ENCE by a 0-2 sweep. If Fnatic brings the same game that they brought last match, they will be in for a very quick 0-2 sweep once again. Astralis is not a team that you can make mistakes against, as they are flawlessly tactical, and cover all their bases very well. Astralis has won four of their last five games, three of those by a 2-0 sweep, and their only loss came to the 4th world-ranked team in Mousesports. Fnatic have won three of their last five, all three by either 3-0 or 2-0 results, and their two losses were to ENCE last match, and OG, a team that Astralis 2-0 swept just four matches ago. Again, I have to five the edge here to Astralis, as they have just been absolutely stellar lately, however, Fnatic were the victors in these two squad’s last match, with a 2-1 result in the ESL Pro League Season 11 Europe, as they were crowned champions as well. So, these two squads know each other very well, as they have played over 120 games with Astralis taking 67 of the games in those matches, and Fnatic winning 62. Astralis has won 3 of their last five matches to date. Also, per the betting odds, Astralis is favored in this match-up by 1.75-to-1 over Fnatic. For the map analysis, I believe this one will come down to whatever map Fnatic decides to ban. Fnatic has banned Vertigo 36% of their most recent matches, while also banning Train and Nuke at just a smidge over 21% of the time as well. Astralis has won 67% of their recent matches on Vertigo, have won 75% on Train, and just 50% on Nuke. So, I feel each team could likely win their first map pick, bringing this match to three maps, where it would likely be decided by Dust2 or Overpass, and these two teams are split down the middle with Astralis winning 75% of their recent matches at Overpass, while Fnatic have won over 60% of their recent matches at Dust2. So, I think this will be the biggest factor – what map will be the third pick. Let’s talk about the player options for these two teams.
ANCHOR: Device – (1.18 Rating 2.0, 0.76 Kills per Round, 0.62 Deaths per Round, 71.8 Kill-Asst%, 1.24 IMPACT, 79.1 ADR)
Top Stacking Options: Device, Dupree, Magisk (xyp9x is great value as well)
ANCHOR: KRIMZ – (1.13 Rating 2.0, 0.72 Kills per Round, 73.9 Kill/Asst%, 1.03 IMPACT, 77.8 ADR)
Top Stacking Options: Krimz, Flusha, Brollan
Heretics (Ranked 36th in World) vs ENCE (Ranked 24th in World)
As mentioned above, this ENCE team just 2-0 swept the 3rd ranked team in the world in Fnatic in their most recent match. Heretics recently faced off against a decent Digintas team, where they went the distance in three maps before coming out the victors. ENCE comes in as a 2.25-to-1 favorite per the betting odds to win this match against Heretics. I do have to give the slight edge to ENCE myself, as the level of competition they have faced lately (Fnatic, Astralis, NiP, Vitality, etc.) is on quite the different talent-level that Heretics has been facing lately. ENCE comes in having won just 2 of their last three, but we need to not discount the fact that they took Astralis, GODSENT, and Vitality to three maps losing 2-1 as a result. So, they were on the cusp of being 5-0 in their last five, however, the cards did not fall that way. They are still a very good squad, not just going off their top 25 world rank. Heretics have won three of their last five games, however the competition was a bit softer as mentioned, and only one of those matches was a 2-0 sweep against the Movistar Riders, who actually just beat Mousesports be a 2-0 sweep as a huge under-dog on yesterday’s morning slate. Nonetheless, it has taken them three maps to win the other two matches 2-1, and lost by a result of 1-2 to Sprout, and 14-16 in a best of one to AGF. I hate that I discounted Heretics so much, as they do have a few studs on their team in Nivera, Lucky, and Maka, as well as Kioshima who is an excellent flanker, and to be quite honest, the map analysis favors Heretics. So, we could easily see this match being closer than we expect. On paper, it would see that Heretics would be a bit of a bigger under-dog in this match, but they are just slight 2-to-1 dog so, im not sold on ENCE. Let’s talk about some player options we like here.
ANCHOR: Nivera – (1.22 Rating 2.0, 0.79 Kills per Round, 0.58 Deaths per Round!!, 76.3 Kill-Asst%, 1.14 IMPACT, 78.5 ADR)
Top Stacking Options: Nivera, Maka, Lucky (can use Kioshima for value and salary relief)
ANCHOR: Allu – (1.08 Rating 2.0 (1.40 in this event so far), 0.72 Kills per Round, 1.11 IMPACT, 75 ADR)
Top Stacking Options: Allu, xseven, Aerial
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Team Liquid (Ranked 6th in World) vs MiBR (Ranked 15th in World)
Both of these squads were held in quite the check yesterday by some inferior squads, taking them all three maps to get the wins, however they did both come out victorious. Liquid faced off against the Bad News Bears, while MiBR faced off against a Yeah team that one of their players (Taco) has ownership stake in as well. Nonetheless, both likely wiped the sweat off their brows and were looking ahead to this match-up today where they face off against each other. These are two very good teams playing in this match-up and should have the same feeling as the Astralis/Fnatic match in terms of how good it should be. Per the betting odds, Liquid comes in as a decently hefty 3.6-to-1 favorite to take this match against MiBR. According to their history of matches, we can see why, as Liquid has pretty much had their number in the past winning 25 of the games to MiBR’s 12-game wins in those matches. Liquid has won all three of their last three matches, not dropping a single game in a couple best of threes, and one best of five match. In their most recent match, MiBR only won a total of 9 rounds in the two games played for that match. Yikes. Obvouisly, going to have to side with Team Liquid here, as I just feel they have a more complete team, and the map history, and head-to-head history all lines up for another Liquid win. Let’s chat about some player options to target.
ANCHOR: EliGe – (Easily their best player, 1.19 Rating 2.0, 0.77 Kills per Round, 0.66 Deaths per Round, 1.32 IMPACT!, 87.5 ADR)
Top Stacking Options: EliGE, NAF, Twistzz (if need a value pick- I’d look at Stewie2K)
ANCHOR: FalleN – (Believe he had 45 frags in a single game yesterday? FalleN is a stud, and sharp, and is very damn good at CSGO – 1.14 Rating 2.0, 0.71 Kills per Round, 0.51 Deaths per Round, 71.9 Kill-Asst%, 1.12 IMPACT, 74.9 ADR)
Top Stacking Options: FalleN, Fer, kNgV-
Envy (Ranked 40th in World) vs Yeah (Ranked 58th in World)
Both of these teams come out losers on Thursday’s slate. Again, they did take both of those opposing teams into three maps, so that does speak quite the volume. Envy came out really strong, netting the win on their first map against Furia, and looked very good in doing so, before falling in the following 2 maps to lose 1-2. Yeah didn’t win a map against MiBR, but fought very diligently, taking the second map to OT before falling 0-2 on the match. Per the betting odds, Envy comes into this match a decent favorite of 3.8-to-1 to get the win. These two have faced off once roughly a little over a month ago, where Envy came out with the 2-0 sweep. However, they did allow Yeah to win double-digit rounds in both games. I do like Envy again here, and think they are the stronger team. Yeah is a thrown-together squad and are relying on a couple of their key players in Dumau, RCF, and iDK. If these guys don’t have pretty strong games, I could easily see this match going 2-0 for Envy once again. The map analysis favors Envy as well, so all the factors line-up here for Envy. Let’s talk about the players to target here.
ANCHOR: Calyx – (1.13 Rating 2.0, 0.76 Kills per Round, 1.18 IMPACT, 82.2 ADR)
Top Stacking Options: Calyx, MICHU, Nifty
ANCHOR: Dumau – (1.18 Rating 2.0, 0.75 Kills per Round, 0.62 Deaths per Round, 71.2 Kill-Asst%, 1.24 IMPACT, 79.5 ADR)
Top Stacking Options: Dumau, RCF, iDk (tatazin can be value also if deciding to play Yeah)
Bad News Bears (Ranked 31st) vs FURIA (Ranked 12th)
As mentioned above, Bad News Bears had Liquid on the ropes yesterday after Liquid dominated map one, then BNB’s hit them in the mouth in map two on a quick start, taking them to Overpass for map three where Liquid won by a decent margin for the 2-1 victory. FURIA had their work cut out for them as well as Envy took them the distance as well going all three maps before FURIA came out victorious on the third and final map as well. Both of these teams have their stars, and I must say that BNB’s are at a small disadvantage here, as I think FURIA has the stronger team. Let us not fail to menion that FURIA has been playing against teams of the like such as MiBR, Evil Geniuses, 100 Thieves. Bears have won three of their last five matches however, and in those three wins they won by the 2-0 sweep, but the competition wasn’t near as good as FURIA will be here today. FURIA won Thursday as mentioned, and have won three of their last five, sweeping MiBR by the 2-0 result, while also securing a win over 100 Thieves, but dropped their match against Evil Geniuses by a 1-2 result. Per the betting odds, FURIA comes in as a 3.8-to-1 favorite to win this match, and I think that number is pretty solid as I have them winning as well, and maybe even 2-0 sweep to be quite honest. Bears will need huge games out of a few of their players, and I just don’t see that happening. Edge here is FURIA. Let’s talk player options.
BAD NEWS BEARS
ANCHOR: dapr – (There is no question he is the star of this team and he will have to literally ball out if they want a chance at three maps – 1.25 Rating 2.0, 0.82 Kills per Round, 73.7 Kill-Asst%, 1.35 IMPACT, 88.1 ADR)
Top Stacking Options: dapr, mitch, jonji
ANCHOR: KSCERATO – (1.21 Rating 2.0, 0.75 Kills per Round, 0.56 Deaths per Round, 75.3 Kill-Asst%, 1.12 IMPACT, 80.0 ADR)
Top Stacking Options: KSCERATO, yuurih, Hen1 (arT is a value play)
***TOP PLAYS, STACKS, VALUES***
Top Plays: Device, KRIMZ, Nivera, Allu, EliGe, KSCERATO, Calyx (not in rank or order)
Top Stacks: FURIA, Astralis, Envy, Liquid, Heretics (ranked in order)
Top Values: xseven, maka, flusha, kioshima, iDk, kNgV-, dapr, RCF, Twistzz, dumau (not in any rank or order)