Welcome back to technically day two of the Road to Rio Event! Today’s playbook will once again cover the main 6-game slate, and will cover recent form, map analysis (if any), and player analysis, along with my (@smitchell17) favorite plays, stacks, and values! Hope you guys have been enjoying the FREE articles! Let’s get to it!
GODSENT (Ranked 18th in World) vs G2 (Ranked 5th in World)
This best of three series kicks off the Europe region for the day, part of Group B. Per the betting odds, G2 comes in as a pretty hefty favorite to win the match, being a 3.8-to-1 favorite. Even though they are a pretty big favorite, they come in tied for the 3rd highest favorite on the day behind Team Liquid, and MiBR. Both of these teams come into today’s match in good form, as GODSENT have been victorious in all five of their five prior matches, however only one of those came by the 2-0 sweep. G2 have won three of their last five, however the losses came to Mousesports (Ranked 2nd in world) and OG (Ranked 14th in World). Looking at some map picks recently, we can see that G2 have picked Dust2 at a 65% clip, however in their last 12 tries there, they have only won 42% of the time, while GODSENT has played there a total of six time there recently, winning four of the six tries. It looks as if GODSENT were picking Inferno mainly as their first pick, and since then have been switching over to Overpass, in which they have flipped their win-rate from a putrid 29% in seven tries on Inferno, to 60%-win clip at Overpass in their last five tries there. However, Overpass has been the first ban pick for G2 at a 60% clip. The first ban for GODSENT has been Mirage at a 94% clip. So, this looks like it could go to a couple different maps here. I could see this going to Vertigo, in which G2 has won all three of their last tries there, Train, where G2 hold a small edge winning their last two of three here, Nuke, which is split dead even, and finally Dust1, which would favor GODSENT. I could easily see this game going to three maps.
For the player analysis lately, All of G2’s starting five come in with Rating 2.0s above a 1.02, lead by -huNter at a hefty 1.23, and KennyS at 1.19. GODSENT has three of their four starters sitting at 1.07 and higher and will likely be riding the coat-tails of these guys – Maden (1.12 team-leading), zehN (1.07), and STYKO (1.07). So, lets talk about some player options for this match.
ANCHOR: Maden – (1.12 Rating 2.0, 0.75 Kills per Round, 69.0% Kill-Asst%, 1.25 IMPACT)
Top Stacking Options: Maden, STYKO, zehN
ANCHOR: huNter- (Massive 1.23 Rating 2.0, 0.79 Kills per Round, 73.1 Kill-Asst%, 1.27 IMPACT, 86.2 ADR)
Top Stacking Options: huNter-, KennyS, nexa
RED Canids (Ranked 74th in World) vs Isurus (Ranked 114th in World)
This best of three is from the South American region, and is a part of Group A. Both of these teams played on yesterday’s slate. RED Canids played a barn-burner with BOOM, and that match went the full distance with RED losing their first map, getting a great start in map two leading to a win on map two, and then falling to BOOM in map three after taking it to OT by a 19-16 final result. Was a highly entertaining game and saw lots of things to like about RED. Isurus gained a win in their match against Imperial after losing map one, the next two maps were handled fairly easily. Per the betting odds at the current moment, RED is a small favorite here at a 1.8-to-1 clip. Looking at some map history here, I really do like RED here and give them the edge. The only map that Isurus has banned lately has been Vertigo, a map RED is worse than any other map on. The only other map that may give RED some trouble via Isurus looks like could be Nuke. The best map for Isurus is Inferno, and that just so happens to be RED first banned map lately. Just going to go directly to player options, as we just saw these two squads yesterday.
ANCHOR: Latto – (Was my anchor yesterday, and he was the top fragger against yesterday)
Top Stacking Options: Latto, DeStiNY, fnx (I also think Nython will bounce back from his 50-66 Kill/Death performance from yesterday, so don’t mind him either)
ANCHOR: Noktse – (I think this is a value captain to be honest, as he is very tactically clean, doesn’t die a whole lot, and led his team in frags yesterday and in the teams last 2 of 5 played.
Top Stacking Options: Noktse, Reversive, Decov9jse (I think L1nKz has decent value also)
BOOM (Ranked 62nd in World) vs Imperial (Ranked 82nd in World)
This best of three series showcases two teams that also played yesterday, and is a part of the South America region – Group A. As mentioned above, BOOM came out with the OT victory against RED Canids yesterday on third map of the match, and Imperial, although winning their first map 16-14, fell in the next two maps quite handedly. Per the betting odds at the current time, the oddsmakers like BOOM here at a 2.5-to-1 clip, and for good reason, as Imperial just literally looked pretty bad on the final two maps and ultimately just fell apart. These two teams have faced off recently, just 18 days ago, where BOOM won the match with a final result of 2-1, with map scores being Nuke 16-7, Mirage 16-9, and falling on Dust2 13-16. So, lost a close one on Dust2, and then handled their business on the final two maps Nuke and Mirage. Let’s talk about some player options.
ANCHOR: Felps – (Top fragger yesterday after a decently slow start, however deaths were an issue. Think he will have a field day against this Imperial team)
Top Stack Options: Felps, yeL, Boltz (shz had a nice game yesterday as well, coming 3rd in frags and 2nd in Kill-Asst%)
ANCHOR: zqkS – (Was my anchor pick yesterday and even though his squad lost, he came through as a captain, being the top fragger with a 64-51 Kill/Death, the 51 deaths was the lowest for both squads in play)
Top Stacking Options: zqkS, KHTEX, SHOOWTIME (dzt really had an off day yesterday, and don’t mind him as value as he should be very low-owned and has the upside)
Team Liquid (Ranked 6th in World) vs Bad News Bears (Ranked 31st in World)
This best of three is part of the North America region, and in Group B. We have one of the best teams in the world here in Team Liquid hosting a top 50 team in Bad News Bears. Per the betting odds out of Vegas, we can see that Liquid is the biggest favorite on the slate as they are a -1100 favorite to win this match. These two teams have faced a night and day type of schedule lately, as Team Liquid has had the displeasure of facing the Evil Geniuses for their prior three matches, however they were the winners in all three, and have won four of their last five, only dropping a 1-2 result to team FURIA. Three of their five matches were a sweep as well. The Bad News Bears were just a play-in team we need to mention, but don’t need to be exactly slept on, as they have won four of their last five matches, their last three by a 2-0 sweep, however, they were 0-2 swept by Cloud9, and this is the type of talent that Team Liquid possesses. Bad News will HAVE to bring their A-Game if they want to have a shot at keeping this game competitive, and they will likely have to start by just trying to get this match to three maps. Ill be honest, I really don’t have to go over the map history here, as Team Liquid is very good at banning the map they don’t like – Train – and they are essentially 60%-win rates on all other maps here.
The Bad News Bears will be relying heavily on their star-player, dapr, and his massive 1.24 Rating 2.0 over the last three months. They also have three other players sitting with Rating 2.0s over 1.05, with one sitting at 1.09 (jonji). For Liquid, have to remember the level of competition they have faced lately, but they sit with three of their five over 1.08, led by EliGe with a 1.19 Rating 2.0 Let’s look at the options for this match.
ANCHOR: EliGe – (1.19 Rating 2.0, 0.77 Kills per Round, 1.30 IMPACT, 88.0 ADR)
Top Stacking Options: EliGe, NAF, Twistzz
BAD NEWS BEARS
ANCHOR: dapr – (1.24 Rating 2.0, 0.80 Kills per Round, 73.3 Kill-Asst%, 1.34 IMPACT, 87.4 ADR)
Top Stacking Options: dapr, Jonji, ptr
FURIA (Ranked 12th in World) vs Envy (Ranked 40th in World)
We get another play-in team here facing off in their first round in a best of three for the North America region, Group B in Envy, facing off one of the top teams in FURIA. Per the betting odds, FURIA is also a large favorite, coming in as a 3.8-to-1 favorite to take this match. Envy was a play-in winner for this event as well. FURIA is clearly a top team, and have played most of the top talent lately, winning 2 of their last 3, beating a Flashpoint grand finalist MiBR, and 100 Thieves, losing to only Evil Geniuses. Envy has lost three of their last five, two of those losses being a 1-2 result to Cloud9. I do think Envy have their work cut out for them here against FURIA, and the betting odds tell the story. These two teams also faced off just about a month ago, with FURIA getting a 2-0 sweep with a 16-7 final on Nuke, and a 16-11 final on Mirage. Let’s talk about some player options for these two squads.
ANCHOR: KSCERATO – (1.19 Rating 2.0, 0.56 Deaths per Round, 74.8 Kill-Asst%, 1.12 IMPACT, 0.73 Kills per Round)
Top Stacking Options: KSCERATO, HEN1, Yuurih (if you want to look at arT, I am fine)
ANCHOR: Calyx – (1.16 Rating 2.0, 71.8 Kill-Asst%, 1.18 IMPACT, 0.78 Kills per Round, 83.2 ADR)
Top Stacking Options: Calyx, MICHU, Nifty
Yeah (Ranked 58th in World) vs MiBR (Ranked 15th in World)
Once again, another best of three here that showcases a bit of a talent-gap between these two squads. MiBR come in as the second largest favorite on the slate today, and for damn good reason. They were just in the FlashPoint 1 grand finale against MAD Lions, and allowed the Lions to go on a massive run in the last map to lose the finals. Some might say that MIBR could come out flat after essentially allowing their sails to be shipped in that final? We shall see. Nonetheless, this is a match-up that highly favors MIBR if they are back into play-mode mentally. To be technical, these two teams aren’t exactly miles apart, however, the edge is pretty big for MiBR considering the level of competition they have faced lately. If they come out with a chip on their shoulder, I would be scared for Team Yeah. Let’s just get to the player options.
ANCHOR: dumau – (1.20 Rating 2.0, 0.76 Kills per Round, 71.9 Kill-Asst%, 1.25 IMPACT, 80.2 ADR)
Top Stacking Options: Dumau, RCF, IdK
ANCHOR: Fallen – (Don’t mind Fer here as a captain as well, as these two lead the team in just about everything)
Top Stacking Options: Fallen, Fer, KNGV
***TOP PLAYS, STACKS, VALUES***
Top Plays: huNter-, zqkS, EliGe, dapr, KSCERATO, Fallen, Fer, Dumau
Top Stacks Ranked: FURIA, MIBR, G2, BOOM
Top Values Under $7K: dapr, dumau, zqkS MICHU, KHTEX, ZehN, Jonji, SHOOWTIME