eSports DFS Playbook: CS:GO - April 22
Sean Mitchell breaks down the six-game Counter Strike Global Offensive slate and gives you his best advice on strategy and lineup construction.
Welcome back, FANation! Today starts off the Road to Rio series, where a good number of the upper-echelon teams will be showcased. This is going to be a huge event, and it should be a ton of fun to watch as well! So, strap in and let’s kick off this series right! Today DraftKings decided to chop the eight games slated for today into a two-gamer and a six-gamer. I will be focusing solely on the SIX game slate that begins at 12:30 PM ET! If you are new to CSGO, check out my very first article, as I did a small introduction into how the game is played, and scored. Now, let’s get down to business!
Vitality (Ranked 10th in World) vs NiP (Ranked 13th in World)
All of these matches will be best of three series. This match is part of the Europe region, and as you can see we have to very good squads facing off here in Group A. Per the betting odds, Vitality comes in as a 1.4-to-1 favorite to win this match, however, I believe that this line should be a little closer. Let’s talk about why. These two teams are very evenly matched and have faced out in two matches already in 2020, with Vitality winning all four games in those matches. All but one of one of the games saw NiP win double-digit rounds in the losses, and both matches the two maps played were both Nuke and Vertigo. Talking about most recent matches for these two, Vitality has dropped three of their last four, but the two wins (one being against NiP) both were 2-0 Sweeps. NiP literally has the same outcome as Vitality over their past five matches, losing their last three, winning two of the five by a 2-0 sweep. If we are going off the most recent two matches, it seems like NiP will need to switch up their map picks, as they do not have very good win-rates on both Nuke (33%) and they surpisingly have a decent win-rate on Vertigo (67% over 9 maps played there). I think NiP will needs to find a way to get Inferno or Overpass in their map picks, as they have over 70%-win clips on both of these maps, and even though they have had success on Vertigo, they have not been able to do so against Vitality there. Looks like NiP has a 75% ban rate on picking Dust2, which seems counter-productive as this is one of Vitality’s worst win-rate maps at just 33% over six maps played.
For the player analysis, over the last three months NiP has all of their five player options sporting a 1.03 Rating 2.0 or better, and Plopski is featuring with a nice 1.15 as well to top the team. For Vitality, ZyWOo tops the team by quite the margin with a hefty 1.18 Rating 2.0 over the past three months, and the only other player option for their team that has a 1.0 Rating 2.0 or better is RpK sitting at directly 1.00. So, lets get to some player options to choose from.
ANCHOR: ZyWOo – (Mentioned his hefty margin of Rating 2.0 above, not to mention 0.62 Deaths per Round, 71.6 Kill-Asst%, 1.18 IMPACT, and 0.74 Kills per Round)
Top Stacking Options: ZyWOo, RpK, Shox
ANCHOR: Plopski – (1.15 Rating 2.0, 0.72 Kills per Round, 72.9 Kill-Asst%, 1.13 IMPACT)
Top Stacking Options: Plopski, Lekr0, Twist
BOOM (Ranked 62nd in World) vs RED Canids (Ranked 74th in World)
The first match of the South America region for Group A is, of course, a best of three between two Brazilian squads. Looking at the betting odds at the current moment, BOOM is a decent sized favorite to win the match, sitting as a 2.15-to-1 favorite. RED played on yesterday’s slate and split the match 1-1, and essentially failed as the slate chalk. If they play anything similar to how they played yesterday, this could turn out to be a disaster for them. However, both of these teams come into today’s match in pretty good form, as BOOM has won four of their last five matches, three of the four by a 2-0 sweep. RED comes in splitting their most recent two matches at 1-1, but 2-0 swept their three prior matches before that as well. One thing I thought was highly interesting is that both teams over their past seven matches – BOOM has lost an average of 8.92 rounds in wins, and have averaged 14.33 rounds won in their losses, while RED has averaged 9.17 rounds lost in their wins, while also averaging 7.20 rounds won in their losses. Not a good look for Red when they lose, they lose decently bad. So, just some food for thought.
Let’s talk about some map analysis for these two squads. BOOM is banning Overpass at a 47% clip, while RED is banning Mirage every single time they play, and this is fine for both squads, as Overpass is only being won around 40% of the time for RED, while Inferno is a map that BOOM has only played twice lately. I highly believe that RED will choose Train, as they have won all eight of their last eight matches there, and obviously if BOOM looks, they may ban Train over Overpass, as Train has also been RED’s first map pick 47% of the time recently. The three maps I could see these two settling on would be Dust2, Mirage, or Nuke. Both teams have been stellar lately on Mirage, both winning all their matches there recently, Dust2 has been a map that RED has played six times lately, only winning half the matches there. Nuke favors RED a bit as they have won 80% of matches there over five tries. So, with that said, I feel like the maps could potentially favor RED here if given an edge to either squad in terms of map picks.
So, let’s talk player analysis for these two now. Both of these teams come into todays match with most, if not all players in good form over last three months. BOOM has every single player option sitting at a 1.13 Rating 2.0 or better, with Felps topping the charts by a big margin at a might 1.41! RED has four of their five players over 1.15 Rating 2.0 over past three months, with the only lone one under being Nak at 0.96. So, player options we feel the strongest about.
ANCHOR: felps – (This guy has been insane lately, 1.41 Rating 2.0 as mentioned above, 0.92 Kills per Round!!, 74.4% Kill-Asst%, 1.73 IMPACT, 94.7 ADR)
Top Stacking Options: felps, chelo, boltz
ANCHOR: latto – (going back to the well here after a pretty lackluster performance yesterday – nonetheless, 1.26 Rating 2.0, 0.78 Kills per Round, 77.8 Kill-Asst%, 1.25 IMPACT, and 83.7 ADR)
Top Stacking Options: Latto, Fnx, DeStiNy (Nython is a alternate)
Isurus (Ranked 114th in World) vs Imperial (Ranked 82nd in World)
This best of three match-up is the second match in the South America Group A bracket. According to the current betting odds, Isurus comes in as a slight 1.4-to-1 favorite to win this match. To be honest, I believe the wrong team is favored as well in this match-up. Imperial comes into this match winning all five of their recent five matches, three of these matches by a 2-0 sweep as well. Isurus has split their last three matches 1-1, being a best of two format, and before that were 0-2 swept by both BOOM and RED Canids. Looking at map analysis, I want to give the edge here also to Imperial. It shows that Isurus has been banning map Vertigo at a 92% clip, and I believe that will be fine with Imperial, as they have not played this map recently either. Imperial is banning Nuke at a 33% clip, in which will be good as Isurus is a winning team on Nuke lately at a 67% clip. Both teams have done well on Dust2, both winning 67% of their most recent matches there, and the decider will be between Inferno, Train, and Overpass I believe. Train has been 46% of Imperial’s first picks lately, and they have won 71% in seven maps played there, while Overpass has been 50% of Isurus’s first map picks, however only winning 50% of their seven maps played there recently, while Imperial has won three of their last four there.
The player analysis also favors Imperial in my opinion as well, as every one of Imperial’s starting five is featuring a Rating 2.0 above 1.01, while three sits at 1.14 or better. Isurus comes in with their highest rated play in decov9jse sitting at 1.08, with reversive the only other one close to him at 1.06. However, four of their starting five do all sit at 1.0 or better. I still favor Imperial pretty strongly here in this match. Let’s get to the player options to look at.
ANCHOR: decov9jse – (For one reason listed above, highest rated player on his squad lately, 72.6 Kill-Assist%, and a manageable 0.66 deaths per round.
Top Stacking Options: decov9jse, reversive, L!nKz (can also alternated Noktse as value)
ANCHOR: zqkS – (1.15 Rating 2.0, 0.70 Kills per Round, very good 0.57 Deaths per Round, 74.7 Kill-Asst%, 1.11 IMPACT)
Top Stacking Options: zqkS, dzt, delboNi
Triumph (Ranked 42nd in World) vs Cloud9 (Ranked 25th in World)
This is the first match in the best of three for Group A of the North America region. Both of these teams won qualifiers to get into the Road to Rio, and now face off in the first match. Both teams come into this match in decent form, as Cloud9 has won four of their last five matches, with three of those wins coming via the 2-0 sweep. Triumph have dropped two of their last three and saw one of their three wins by the 2-0 sweep. Cloud9 comes in as a hefty 3.4-to-1 favorite per the betting odds, and I believe I must agree with this line, as I feel Cloud9 are just the better squad here, and by a decent margin. Looking at a little bit of map analysis, Cloud9 is banning Mirage at a 76% clip, and this is fine with Triumph as they have only won at a 33% clip there lately. Cloud9’s first map pick lately has been Inferno, but they have not exactly fared well their recently, only winning 43% on seven tries. I could see Cloud9 going with Train, where they have won five in a row, or Overpass, where they have also won five in a row. However, Train has been a thorn for Triumph (25% in four tries recently) and have been really good on Overpass, winning their last six straight. I believe this match comes down to three-four maps. Dust2, Nuke, Train, Overpass. Nuke and Overpass favor Triumph, where as Train and Dust2 both favor Cloud9. Nuke has been Triumph’s first pick 27% of the time lately and have won 50% of the ten map tries there recently, and Cloud9 has won less than 30% in seven recent tries there. I think this could be the pivotal factor for Triumph. If they get Nuke, and win, they could make this very interesting. So, I am kind of split on the map edge, but if goes that scenario, I could see Triumph making this a three-map affair easily. Then it will come down to either Train, or Dust2.
For the player analysis, Cloud9 has a reputable 1.04 Rating 2.0 or above for four of their five players in the past three months, where Triumph has all five of their options sporting a 1.01 Rating or better for that span. Grim has been the sole source lately for Triumph and he sits with a massive 1.31 Rating 2.0 over the past three months. Floppy and oSee have been the driving forces for Cloud9 lately, both sitting with a 1.12 and 1.13 Rating 2.0s in that span. Now to the player options we like the most.
ANCHOR: Grim – (1.31 Rating 2.0, 0.86 Kills per Round, 75.6 Kill-Asst%, 1.39 IMPACT, 92.1 ADR)
Top Stacking Options: Grim, Junior, Curry
ANCHOR: Floppy – (1.13 Rating 2.0, 0.73 Kills per Round, 72.1 Kill-Asst%, 1.13 IMPACT, 81.7 ADR)
Top Stacking Options: Floppy, oSee, Sonic (Can mix in some motm in stacks)
Gen.G (Ranked 22nd in World) vs 100 Thieves (Ranked 9th in World)
We get our first real slobber-knocker here with two top 25 teams facing off in the first found of Group A of the North America region in a best of three match. Per the betting odds, Vegas likes 100 Thieves to take down this match, as they are a 1.9-to-1 favorite. On paper, these two teams come in very evenly matched, and for the recent form, both have have been losers in three of their last five matches. We must mention that the squads they have been facing are world-class teams such as HAVU, FPX, MiBR, and FURIA just to name a few. However, worth noting that in Gen.G’s prior 14 matches, 50% of those came by the 2-0 sweep, where as 100 Thieves have only 2-0 swept 8.3% of their last 12 matches. For some map analysis, looks like both teams have banned Overpass at 57 and 100% clip, so we can throw that map out. They both have taken a liking to Inferno, and this map favors Gen.G as they have won 62% there recently in their last 8 tries, whereas 100T have won less than 30% in seven recent tries. To be honest, I have to give the map edge to Gen.G, as I feel the remaining maps favor them, as they have won over 65% of their recent matches on all of Dust2, Mirage, Nuke, and Train.
For some player analysis – another edge I give to the dog here in Gen.G, as they have four of their five player options sporting a 1.07 or higher Rating 2.0 for the prior three months, whereas 100T only have two over 1.0 for that span – Jks (1.10) and jkaem (1.06). So, let’s see who we like for this match up.
ANCHOR: koosta – (Team-leading 1.14 Rating 2.0, 0.72 Kills per Round, 70.8 Kill-Asst%, 1.18 IMPACT, 82.3 ADR)
Top Stacking Options: koosta, autimatic, s0m (don’t mind mixing in some BnTeT)
ANCHOR: jks – (1.10 Rating 2.0, 0.67 Kills per Round, 72.8 Kill-Asst%, 1.04 IMPACT, 76.9 ADR)
Top Stacking Options: jks, jkaem, AZR
Evil Geniuses (Ranked 7th in World) vs Orgless (Ranked 34th in World)
The third and final match for the North American region Group A features another top ten squad vs another top 40 squad in a best of three. Evil Geniuses come in as the largest favorite on the slate per betting odds, as they are a massive 6.5-to-1 favorite to win this match. However, EG has only won two of their last five matches but can’t say much more for Orgless as they have dropped four of their last five. For some map analysis, we can see that EG are banning Overpass at a 50% clip, while Orgless are banning Vertigo at almost 90% clip. The first picks for both are Train for Orgless (winning 64% over 11 last tries here), and Inferno for EG (winning also 67% in last nine tries here). So for the map edge, I really think if anything it favors Orgless here. Train is EG favorite pick, and Org have won four of their last five maps tries there. If it comes down to Dust2, Mirage, or Nuke, then I give the edge to Orgless, as they have over 60% win rates on both Mirage and Nuke, and a 50% win on Dust2.
For some player analysis, all but one of Orgless come in sporting a 1.04 Rating 2.0 or higher, with three of those being 1.12 or higher as well. For EG, they have only three of their four eclipsing a 1.02 rating, being led by Brehze with a 1.13. So, lets see what options we like for this match.
ANCHOR: Brehze – (1.13 Rating 2.0, 0.76 Kills per Roud, 71.6 Kill-Asst%, 1.15 IMPACT, 78.2 ADR)
Top Stacking Options: Brehze, CeRq, Ethan
ANCHOR: Infinite – (1.15 Rating 2.0, 0.75 Kills per Round, 71.8 Kill-Asst%, 1.14 IMPACT, 81.7 ADR)
Top Stacking Options: Infinite, WARDELL, Subroza
***TOP PLAYS, STACKS, VALUES***
Top Plays: felps, latto, Infinite, zyWhO0, Grim, Koosta,
Top Stacks Ranked: BOOM, Imperial, Vitality, Gen.G, Orgless
Top Values Plays: delboNi, fnx, S0M, Subroza, Ethan, Infinite, autimatic, DeStINY, Junior