eSports DFS Playbook: CS:GO - April 18
Sean Mitchell breaks down the four-game Counter Strike Global Offensive slate and gives you his best advice on strategy and lineup construction.
Welcome back, FANation! Today we are lucky enough to have two slates for Counter-Strike: Global Offensive! The first slate is just a showdown between Team HAVU and Team MAD Lions in the semi-finals of the Flashpoint 1 series. The second slate, and the slate that today’s playbook will be covering is the 4-game DreamHack Masters Spring 2020 – North American Closed Qualifiers. Two of these four teams will go on to enter the DreamHack Masters Spring 2020-North America Event! The four games we have on tap include Cloud9 vs New England Whalers, in game two we have Bad News Bears vs Triumph, in game three we have Envy vs Recon 5, and the nightcap will feature Swole Patrol vs Monstars. With that said, let’s get down to business!
Cloud9 (Ranked 28th in World) vs New England Whalers (Ranked 97th in World)
Even if you are fairly new to the eSports world, there is a chance you have already seen, heard of, or watched Team Cloud9 play in League of Legends, or CS:GO. They are one of the more prominently known teams in the eSports Gaming world, and are definitely a talented bunch, as they have one and placed top-three or better in multiple events in the eSports scene, not to mention their 28th world ranks also. Let us also not fail to mention that the level of competition that Cloud9 has been facing here recently is pretty stout in terms of HAVU, MAD Lions, Gen G., and others. Interestingly enough, the odds-on today’s match for Cloud9 with New England Whalers is not what you would think it is when you first see this match. Cloud9 is just a 3-to-1 favorite today. I know that does seem like quite a bit, but on paper, this seems…short? This is a best of three match however, so could we see three maps? Maybe.
Now, lets breakdown this match up. Cloud9 comes in with four of their five players supporting a 1.03 Rating 2.0 or better over their last three months, and as mentioned above, they have played some pretty good competition. The Whalers have three solid players supporting Ratings at 1.04 or better, with their other two options sitting at 0.94 and 0.98. The lone under 1.0 player for Cloud9 is JT, and well, JT is nothing more than an ancillary option on this team, as his three-month average Rating 2.0 is a putrid 0.86. Over the past three months, Team Cloud9 has played 17 total matches, for a total of a whopping 39 maps. They have swept teams for a 2-0 result in almost 36% of those matches, have secured at least the win going 2-1 in another 23% of those matches, while also getting swept themselves by a 2-0 clip by a higher 35%, however keep in mind the competition. For the Whalers, they have been featured in 6 matches, playing a total of just 13 maps over their prior three months, (doesn’t seem like a lot of play lately?), while securing 2-0 victories in 33.3% of those matches, securing a big fat zero percentage of 2-1 wins, while being swept 0-2 in 50% of those matches. Not the best resume coming into today’s match. HOWEVER, coming into today’s match, the Whalers have 2-0 swept their last two matches, so let us not fully discount that fact, but it is also noteworthy that their core lineup has only played a total of FOUR maps in their last 30 days together.
Looking at the map data for these two teams and their prior pickings of the maps over the past 3 months, we can almost guarantee that Cloud9 will be looking to play a map that the Whalers haven’t played much of recently, and there are a few that fit this bill – they have yet to play Train, a map that Cloud9 has won 75% of the time in 8 maps, there is Dust2, where the Whalers have played just twice, losing both maps, and this is Cloud9’s second best map of those months sitting at a 67%-win clip in 6 maps as well. I would think that likely, Cloud9 will ban map Nuke, seeing as how this is the map usually picked first by the Whalers, and it is their best map recently, playing it 12 times for a 50%-win clip. Best case is that the two maps picked for Whalers include Inferno (43%-win clip for them in 7 maps), and then I believe the 2nd map chosen will likely leave Cloud9 at an advantage, as they have over 50%-win rates on each of the final maps. So, with that said, let’s get to some top plays and top builds, shall we?
ANCHOR: Floppy – (this is an easy one, as Floppy has been their star, and most consistent player as of late. 1.10 Rating 2.0, 0.71 Kills per Round, 71.2 Kill-Asst%, and 80.5 ADR)
Top Builds: Floppy, oSee (0.61 Deaths per Round- doesn’t die as often, 74.1 Kill-Asst% - assists a ton in kills), motm.
NEW ENGLAND WHALERS
ANCHOR: BOOBIE – (1.05 Rating 2.0, 0.68 Kills Per Round, 69.9% Kill-Asst%, 47.5% Headshot, 6.5 Gren Damage/Round, 77.9 ADR)
Top Builds: BOOBIE, PwnAlone, roca
Bad News Bears (Ranked 31st in World) vs Triumph (Ranked 44th in World)
For this match-up we have the Bad News Bears coming in as a 2.5-to-1 favorite over Team Triumph in a best of three series. Both of these teams come into today’s match in good form, as both have won four of their last five contests, and seemingly both have swept two of their last three as well. However, when looking at the average rounds lost in wins, there is quite the gap for Bad News Bears, as they have lost only an average of 7.7 maps in wins, whereas, Triumph have lost an average of 11.43 rounds in their wins, so kind of shows a little bit of dominance in the numbers there.
Breaking down the teams, it is important to note that Team Triumph has only played 2 total maps over the last 30 days with the core lineup, which didn’t include Junior and Curry, who have played less than 5 overall matches with the core, which doesn’t seem like a whole lot of time to gain team chemistry, build the awareness of each other on the team, etc., so keep that in mind. These two teams have faced off for a total of three times over the last three months as well, with the Bad News Bears beating them all three times with scores of (best of ones) – 16-10 on Inferno, 16-6 on Dust2, and 16-9 on Nuke. SO, you can see obviously we like Bad News Bears here quite a bit. If you want to go contrarian however, I believe that Triumph will end up pretty low-owned, and they have star-upside with their new players, as they are supporting some very good individual numbers lately. It is a best of three series, so I could see Triumph stealing a map. Let’s look at player options…
BAD NEWS BEARS
ANCHOR: dapr – (dapr has been the carrier of this team, supporting a ridiculous 1.26 Rating 2.0, 73.9% Kill-Asst%, 1.36 IMPACT!!, 90.1 ADR, and 0.81 Kills per round)
Top Builds: dapr, jonji, mitch
ANCHOR: Grim – (1.29 Rating 2.0, 74.9 Kill-Asst%, 1.38 IMPACT, 90.7 ADR, 0.85 Kills per Round)
Top Builds: Grim, Curry, Junior
Envy (Ranked 51st in World) vs Recon 5 (Ranked 59th in World)
The betting odds have Team Envy listed here as a 2.8-to-1 favorite over Recon 5 here today for this best of three series. On paper, this seems like Envy will be the “chalk” and likely should be, as their last five matches have come against some top-tier talent in Cloud9 (Lost 1-2), HAVU (Lost 0-2), Cloud9 again (Won 2-1), MiBR (Lost 0-2), and finally Gen.G (Lost 1-2). For Team Recon 5, they are having a couple play-ins, or spot-start players for two of their usual core players in AAustin, replacing with Neptune and -jet, in which Recon 5 have only played a total of 2 maps with their core lineup in the past 30 days, also meaning that Neptune, and -jet have played less than a total of 5 matches with the core they are playing with today. One thing that Recon 5 do have going for them, is they are fresh off a 2-0 sweep in their most recent match, so confidence may be at a high for now, and this match did involve the two spot-starters as well, with Neptune leading the force for Recon 5.
To be flat out honest, it seems that Envy will be chalky, I can easily see that today, as the “public” seems to be picking them to take the win here at over an 80% clip, and people tend to get worried when hearing “play-in” players, but let’s be real here, we are talking about guys who play CS:GO every day together practicing, so even though it doesn’t “look good” on paper, this Recon 5 team still has some pretty good talent, so let’s don’t write them off just like that. Not to mention, Envy only has two players with a Rating 2.0 above 1.0 over their last 3 months. Let’s get to some player picks, shall we?
ANCHOR: Calyx - (1.15 Rating 2.0, 69.0 Kill-Asst%, 1.22 IMPACT, 83.0 ADR, 0.76 Kills per Round)
Top Builds: Calyx, MICHU, moose
ANCHOR: Neptune – (1.13 Rating 2.0, 0.77 Kills per Round, 72.1 Kill-Asst%, 1.12 IMPACT, 79.8 ADR)
Top Builds: Neptune, NosraC, JazzPimp
Swole Patrol (Ranked 29th in World) vs Monstars (Ranked 85th in World)
Looking at the betting odds for this best of three match, Swole Patrol comes in as a hefty 3-to-1 favorite, topping todays game for the biggest favorite on the slate, and it seems that it is for a good reason. One thing that stands out quite a bit about Monstars is one, they lost in a best of one to Team Chaos, and I have watched Chaos play, and they are not good, and two, they are having to play with a stand-in, or spot-starter as well in Oderus instead of their usual core player RZU. This core has only played 3 maps total in the last 30 days, and Oderus has played less than 5 total matches with the core. Also, it is very noteworthy to point out that Swole Patrol has played stiff competition as of late, playing MiBR, FURIA, Evil Geniuses, Team Liquid, and 100 Thieves, all big, and well-known talented teams. I think that Swole Patrol has the easiest road to a 2-0 victory on today’s slate and should be likely viewed as a top stack. Swole Patrol comes in with every player on their core roster supporting a Rating 2.0 of 1.03 or higher, and well, Monstars have two players only with a rating above 1.03 over their past three months. Not good. These two teams have also faced off in two best of one series lately, with Swole Patrol routing Monstars in both matches by scores of 16-6 on map Overpass, and 16-3 on map Nuke. So, you see who we are going to be playing here, and likely the easiest fade of the day as well. So, let’s get to some player options.
ANCHOR: Cooper – (1.16 Rating 2.0, 0.77 Kills per Round, 73.2 Kill-Asst%, 1.16 IMPACT, 76.5 ADR)
Top Builds: Cooper, Zellsis, food
MONSTARS (if decide to be contrarian)
ANCHOR: RIKO – (1.10 Rating 2.0, 0.72 Kills per Round, 70.6 Kill-Asst%, 1.01 IMPACT, 80.8 ADR)
Top Builds: RIKO, Swisher, tex
***TOP PLAYS, STACKS, VALUE***
TOP CPTS: dapr, Floppy, Cooper, Grim
Top Stacks: Swole Patrol, Bad News Bears, Cloud9,
Top Contrarian Stacks: Triumph, Recon 5
Top Values: Moose, Junior, JazzPimp, MICHU, nostraC
Thanks for reading, and hope you enjoyed the CS:GO Playbook! Follow me on Twitter @smitchell17!