Game 1

MIAMI HEAT @ ATLANTA HAWKS

(MIA -6.5, TOTAL: 217)

There is no doubt about it, the Hawks losing Trae Young  for a few weeks is going to be very costly for their production. However, I still feel there will be some decent fantasy value in this game. This is a rematch for these two teams, as they just played in Miami two days ago. So, not much has changed, except Trae, and we have a little bit of box score data to work with.

First, we shall begin with the obvious, this spread is decently high, and will likely be higher by game time, however, instead of it being in Miami, it is in Atlanta. The total is one of moderate fashion at 217, as these two teams combined for 209 points. Trae Young  was one of the bigger reasons that ATL ran with any pace, but it helps that the Heat still rank 3rd in the league in terms of PACE at 108.30. So, this total seems like it could either mean that ATL keeps this thing closer than we think, or the Heat wallop them and this score is lop-sided in my opinion. The big performers for Tuesday’s clash were John Collins  and Jabari Parker  for the Hawks, and Tyler Herro  , Jimmy Butler  , Bam Adebayo  , and Goran Dragic  all had nice games for the Heat.

I wanted to take a bigger look into how the Hawk’s usage would look without Trae, and here is what I found: The biggest boost in terms of usage gained were: Jabari Parker  (26.6%), DeAndre Hunter (26.0%), Vince Carter  (24.9%), Cam Reddish (23.4%), and John Collins  (22.7%). These are usage rates WITHOUT Trae on the floor. Now, to dig a bit deeper. It was quite interesting to see that the FP/P differentials were somewhat different in terms of what the usage was showing. So, in terms of actual real points being scored without him on the floor, Kevin Huerter  topped out with an average differential of +5.42 real points added without. Second to Huerter, was Vince Carter  at +4.17 additional without. The next thing I looked at was the differential in fantasy points scored, and that was led by DeAndre Bembry with an addition of +6.82 fantasy points without Trae. Next closest was Vince Carter  at +6.22. Lastly, I wanted to see which of these correlated with the addition of a differential in usage bump. The biggest differential in usage bump was to Kevin Huerter  at an additional +7.5% usage added without Trae on the floor. Next to Huerter was Vince Carter  at +6.9% usage bump. It was also very interesting to note that John Collins  still saw a slight usage bump in an addition of 2.0%, however his real point differential was also -3.41.

Now, just want to throw out a few stats before we get to the player options. In Tuesday’s game it was highly notable that the Hawks didn’t rebound well. The heat were +12 in Defensive Reb, +4 in Offensive Reb, and a massive +16 in Overall Reb. If you remember, Bam was my favorite play of that slate, and he went off for 44.5 fantasy points. The Heat rank 6th in the league in REB%, while the Hawks poorly rank 24th, again big factor for tonight. It was also worth noting that the Hawks rank 9th in the league in ASST%, and they also were +9 in assists for Tuesdays game, out-assisting the Heat 28-19. The assist leaders? Bembry (5) and Cam Reddish (4) (Trae only had two before leaving). So, just a few tidbits to help when deciding on some value, now the players!

Top Tier: John Collins  , Jimmy Butler  , Bam Adebayo

Middle Tier: Goran Dragic  , Tyler Herro  , Kendrick Nunn

Value Tier: DeAndre' Bembry , Cameron Reddish , Kevin Huerter  (min bump to 25 tonight btw), Vince Carter  , Tyrone Wallace  (played 14 mins in last game after Trae left, could get run in case of a blow-out)

 

Game 2

DENVER NUGGETS @ NEW ORLEANS PELICANS

(DEN -4, TOTAL: 225)

Here we have another clash like the Grizz/Lakers game from a night ago where you have one of the fastest teams in the league in the Pelicans (5th highest PACE), and the SLOWEST team in the Denver Nuggets. With this game being in New Orleans, I believe the Pelicans will try to play to their style more in front of the home fans, making this a decently fast-paced game with nice tempo. I would look for Denver to be out for a win, as they lost a heart-breaker at home on Tuesday to the Dallas Mavericks. It seems that Jrue Holiday  is good to go, and this is a boost for the Pelicans of course. This game should be a fun one to stack, as it has two teams that have many options, and well quite frankly, the Pelicans tend to not play much defense.

A few stats to mention, the Pelicans rank 1st in the NBA in Assists, they are passing the ball around, and Lonzo is a big part of that. Brandon Ingram  has been playing out of his mind, carrying a 28.4 usage rate, 22.6 asst%, and a 12.1 REB%. He is getting it done all over the floor, except for defense, as he hosts a 120.4 DRTG. It seems as if Derrick Favors  may not play once again, and in his absence, it was worth noting that Jaxson Hayes  saw 24 minutes, put up 28.3 fantasy points on a 19 point, 3 rebounds, 1 assist, 1 block and 1 steal line. With that said, it has also been no secret that the Nuggets have been allowing some pretty big games to opposing big men, as they allowed Richaun Holmes  to put up over 40 fantasy points two games ago, and also allowed a 30-fantasy point game to Maxi Kleber  , and allowed a double-double of 10/14 to starting PF Kristaps Porzingis  . Another status to monitor that I just noticed is that Will Barton  is now questionable to play with toe inflammation. If he happens to not play, this could open up a large number of minutes for Torrey Craig  . Also, wanted to see who benefited the most without Barton on the floor this season so far, and it was Jokic who saw 38.4%, with Jamal Murray  , and Monte Morris  seeing a smidge over 25%. As far as usage differential, Jokic sees a +12.7% bump without Barton. The player who has scored the most fantasy points happens to be Jamal Murray  at an additional bump of +11.99 fantasy points without, AS WELL AS, a +13.14 real point bump! So, this is something to obviously watch for. Now to the plays!

Top Tier: Nikola Jokic  , Brandon Ingram  ,

Middle Tier: Lonzo Ball  , Jamal Murray  , Josh Hart

Value Tier: Jaxson Hayes  , Torrey Craig  (if no Barton), Mason Plumlee  , Kenrich Williams

 

Game 3

SAN ANTONIO SPURS @ LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS

(LAC -4.5, TOTAL: 228)

This game has a lot of appeal, and it’s for one major reason. It is Kawhi Leonard  revenge night. The Clippers are hosting the Spurs at home tonight, and it just so happens that Mr. Leonard decided to take last night’s game off, being the 1st set of the back-to-back. Typically, players tend to take the 2nd night, off but then that wouldn’t make this game very much fun, now would it? Kawhi is absolutely going to drop the hammer on the Spurs tonight, with his 37% usage rate, and with his mates all playing last night, look for it to be closer to 40% in my opinion. This game has a surprisingly big total at 228, and I believe it has risen by almost three points since I began writing this article. Which is somewhat odd, as the Spurs rank 11th in terms of PACE on the season, whereas the Clippers rank 20th. So, this doesn’t “look” to be such a high-scoring game.

 A few stats to note. The Spurs come into tonight’s game ranked 3rd in the league in total REB%, where the Clippers rank middle of the pack at 16th. One of the big factors in the Spurs REB% being so high is starting PG Dejounte Murray  housing an admirable 16.0% REB% with 26.5% DREB%. In that regard, he leads the team by quite a decent margin. The three big usage guys for the Spurs include DeMar DeRozan  at 27.3%, Murray at 25.9%, and LaMarcus Aldridge  at 25.2% going into tonight’s game. The big usage guys for the Clippers after Kawhi is Lou Williams  at 29.6%, and Montrezl Harrell  at 26.3%. One defensive spot versus position I thought was interesting is that the Spurs are allowing the 8th most fantasy points to opposing SGs, so that bumps Lou up obviously. The Spurs are also allowing the 2nd most fantasy points to the PF spot! HELLO KAWHI. Lastly, the Clippers are allowing the 9th most fantasy points to opposing Centers, so that makes LMA a great play also. Now to the plays!

Top Tier: Kawhi Leonard

Middle Tier: LaMarcus Aldridge , Lou Williams  , Montrezl Harrell , Dejounte Murray

Value Tier: Landry Shamet  , Bryn Forbes , JaMychal Green