CS:GO DFS Playbook: ESL Pro League Season 13 – 4.8.2021 (2-Match)

Heroic (Ranked 12th in World) @ NiP (Ranked 13th in World)

Betting Odds: Heroic -185/NiP +140

Map Odds: 2.5 Over -115/Under -115

*This is a best of three play-in match with the winner advancing to the semi-finals and the loser heading to the quarter-finals for the ESL Pro League Season 13 playoffs. (*Note – Heroic does come in with a seven-match win streak on the line)

*Heroic For Event (13 Maps): cadiaN 1.20 Rating, TeSeS 1.15, refrezh 1.09, stavn 1.09, sjuush 1.07.

*Heroic For the Last Three Months of Play (35 Maps): cadiaN 1.15 Rating, sjuush 1.10, stavn 1.09, TeSeS 1.09, refrezh 1.02.

*NiP For Event (13 Maps): nawwk 1.16 Rating, REZ 1.14, hampus 1.12, Plopski 1.12, ztr 0.88.

*NiP For the Last Three Months of Play (41 Maps): REZ 1.08 Rating, Plopski 1.07, hampus 1.04, nawwk 0.99, ztr 0.84.

H2H DATA:

*These two teams have faced-off three times over the last calendar year with Heroic winning the last two and two of the three matches played. All THREE matches went the full three-map distance to boot.

*Heroic vs NiP (9 Maps): stavn +58 K-D Diff, 1.44 K-D, 1.31 Rating. TeSeS +14 K-D Diff, 1.09 K-D, 1.0 8 Rating. cadiaN +4 K-D Diff, 1.03 K-D, 1.06 Rating.

*NiP vs Heroic (9 Maps): nawwk +5 K-D Diff, 1.03 K-D, 0.96 Rating.

MAPS:

*The first likely two banned maps for this match should include Dust2 for Heroic and Nuke for NiP. I believe we see Overpass for NiP and Vertigo for Heroic.

*NiP on Overpass (10 Maps): Plopski 1.14 Rating, 0.76 KPR, 1.13 IMP, 85.2 ADR. REZ 1.02, hampus 0.97, nawwk 0.90, ztr 0.86. On Vertigo (2 Maps): Plopski 1.03 Rating, 0.65 KPR, 0.92 IMP, 81.1 ADR. hampus 0.90, REZ 0.80, nawwk 0.70, ztr 0.22.

*Heroic on Vertigo (6 Maps): cadiaN 1.30 Rating, 0.85 KPR, 1.43 IMP, 85.3 ADR. stavn 1.27, sjuush 1.24, TeSeS 1.17, refrezh 1.01. On Overpass (4 Maps): TeSeS 1.26 Rating, 0.83 KPR, 1.31 IMP, 89.8 ADR. sjuush 1.19, stavn 1.01, cadiaN 1.00, refrezh 0.90.

Analysis: The books are taking a pretty hard stance here on Heroic, and looking back over the numbers it does seem like they “should” be the winning side, however, I have seen NiP win lots of matches they have no business winning in. Going by sheer numbers and projected maps to be played here, I do side with Heroic, as well. I believe their roster has just a bit higher of a talent gap compared to NiP’s roster.

 

Gambit (Ranked 3rd in World) @ Astralis (Ranked 2nd in World)

Betting Odds: Astralis -125/Gambit -105

Map Odds: 2.5 Over -120/Under -110

*This is a best of three match with the winner advancing to the semi-finals and the loser heading to the quarter-final bracket for the ESL Pro League Season 13 Event. (*NOTE – both teams are on winning streaks here, Gambit at eight-straight and Astralis at four in a row)

*Gambit For Event (14 Maps): Ax1Le 1.30 Rating, sh1ro 1.27, Hobbit 1.22, Nafany 1.12, interz 1.00.

*Gambit For the Last Three Months of Play (68 Maps): sh1ro 1.25 Rating, Hobbit 1.19, Ax1Le 1.19, Nafany 1.05, interz 0.99.

*Astralis For Event (12 Maps): device 1.29 Rating, dupreeh 1.16, Magisk 1.10, gla1ve 1.00, Xyp9x 0.98.

*Astralis For the Last Three Months of Play (39 Maps): device 1.20 Rating, dupreeh 1.14, Magisk 1.03, gla1ve 1.02, Xyp9x 1.00.

H2H DATA:

*These two teams have played just once back at the DreamHack Masters Winter 2020 Event with Astralis sweeping the match 2-0 with wins of 16-12 on Inferno and 16-9 on Vertigo.

*Top Performers for Astralis (2 Maps): dupreeh +19 K-D Diff, 1.47 Rating, 92.2 ADR. Magisk +17 K-D Diff, 1.26 Rating, 84.1 ADR. device +12 K-D Diff, 1.34 Rating, 86.3 ADR.

*Top Performers for Gambit (2 Maps): sh1ro recorded the best stat-line at -2 K-D Diff, 0.97 Rating, 71.9 ADR.

MAPS:

*The first likely two banned maps for this match should include Mirage for Astralis and Nuke for Gambit. I believe we see Overpass for Gambit and Dust2 for Astralis.

*Gambit on Overpass (14 Maps): Hobbit 1.25 Rating, 0.78 KPR, 1.30 IMP, 85.1 ADR. sh1ro 1.18, Nafany 1.10, Ax1Le 1.09, interz 1.00. On Dust2 (11 Maps): sh1ro 1.21 Rating, 0.72 KPR, 1.12 IMP, 78.2 ADR. Hobbit 1.12, Ax1Le 1.10, Nafany 0.98, interz 0.92.

*Astralis on Dust2 (8 Maps): Device 1.18 Rating, 0.69 KPR, 1.29 IMP, 75.8 ADR. Xyp9x 1.13, dupreeh 1.11, Magisk 1.04, gla1ve 0.99. On Overpass (5 Maps): device 1.27 Rating, 0.74 KPR, 1.27 IMP, 80.7 ADR. dupreeh 1.14, Xyp9x 0.97, Magisk 0.95, gla1ve 0.88.

Analysis: This match is so evenly close it’s not even funny. I could have sworn that Gambit had beaten Astralis in a prior Event, but the H2H only showing DH Masters Winter match with Astralis sweeping. I think we see three maps for this match, and I think the decider is likely inferno where both teams have been really good at. I think Gambit may easily be looking for a little revenge here, but I honestly think this match will be up to individual performances. In that regard, I feel Gambit has a bit more talent. (I know that is weird to say about Astralis)

 

*TOP STACKS: Heroic, Astralis

*TOP GPP STACKS: NiP, Gambit

*TOP CPT PLAYS: device, cadiaN, sh1ro, Hobbit, Plopski, dupreeh, stavn

*TOP FLEX PLAYS: REZ, TeSeS, Ax1Le, hampus, Xyp9x, nawwk