The fantasy football draft season is coming to a rapid close, and hopefully the Fantasy Alarm family has helped you make the best decisions possible. However, the last weekend of trades and cuts have made drafting even more complicated than before. There have been big shifts in some player’s values and this will certainly play itself out in the last few days before kickoff on Thursday. Below are three guys who saw their ADP rise, three guys who took a hit in value, and one more to keep a watch on in the first few weeks of the NFL regular season.
Risers
Devin Singletary , RB BUF - With the release of LeSean McCoy , that means that there’s only one geriatric, over the hill running back in front of Singletary on the depth chart now. And while Frank Gore is still a more than capable runner, Singletary is the future, and the future should be now. Clearly Singletary impressed the coaching staff enough for the team to feel comfortable letting go of McCoy, although his six-million-dollar contract and plummeting production didn’t hurt either. Singletary was going in double digit rounds a week ago, but you have to start considering him in the seventh round or perhaps a little higher.
Kenny Stills , WR HOU - The Dolphins have completed purged their roster of most of the talent, and among those moves Stills was liberated and traded to Houston. With Keke Coutee injured, and Will Fuller always one play away from missing time, Stills has a chance to have a meaningful role on this offense. Deshaun Watson will be by far the best quarterback that has thrown Stills the ball in the last four years and he has some big play ability. He still isn’t among the top 40 receivers come draft day, but this change of scenery certainly has his chances of having a big year as a distinct possibility.
Chris Carson , RB SEA - All preseason Carson has badly outplayed Rashaad Penny , and this has continued as we approach Week 1. There is little to no doubt that Carson will be the lead back and receive 80-to-90% of the carries. He still won’t catch a ton of passes, but Carson was once a low end RB2 or a flex option, but now he is clearly entrenched among the top 20 backs in football, and the way the Seahawks want to run the ball he could easily finish the season as the RB15.
Fallers
Damien Williams , RB KC - Williams was a player that folks on Twitter argued more than most any other player. The Chiefs didn’t have any better guy to run the ball 20 times a game, but Williams didn’t have a long track record of being an every down back in the NFL. The coast looked clear until the Chiefs signed LeSean McCoy over the weekend. While McCoy’s talents have cleared took a step back, Kansas City did sign him to a contract that guarantees him three-million-dollars. The guaranteed money and the reuniting with former coach Andy Reid does make me think that McCoy might get meaningful carries. It wouldn’t be surprising if he flounders the opportunity, but there is a real good chance that McCoy gets more carries than he should, hurting Williams value.
Tony Pollard, RB DAL - You were warned that Zeke would be signed before the season started. You were warned that Pollard’s value would go into the toilet if Elliott was signed. You were warned that Jerry Jones wasn’t going to let a few million dollars come between him and a chance to win a Super Bowl. While the fourth-round pick has looked more than capable this preseason he isn’t going to have standalone value when Elliott signs his contract. Elliott is the Cowboys offense, even with the improved passing game after Amari Cooper came over. Pollard goes from a potential seventh or eighth round pick to a player who is barely rosterable anymore.
Kalen Ballage /Kenyan Drake , RB MIA - As mentioned above, the Dolphins made several moves over the weekend, and none made an immediately positive impact on their roster. Most may have been good for the team long term, clearly cap space and gaining draft picks, but all made 2019 more of an uphill climb. The largest may have been trading away starting tackle Laremy Tunsil . The Miami offensive line was already looking like it was going to be in the bottom half of the league, but this move ultimately made it bad. Ballage has played very well in substitution for a banged-up Drake, but with this offensive line, both players take a hit in value. Whoever ends up being the bell cow back for Miami, their chances of success just got longer. Either player is now a flex option at best, and perhaps a fourth running back on your team.
Stock Watch
Devine Ozigbo, RB JAX - Leonard Fournette is often injured, Alfred Blue is on injured reserve, and that doesn’t leave many options in the Jacksonville backfield. Ozigbo had a great preseason for the Saints before being cut with 153 total yards and a touchdown. He showed great metrics in his Pro Day, and while not a big guy, he appears to be a strong runner. The Jaguars offense is a huge question mark coming into the season, but there are also signs that there could be success. If Fournette is unable to stay healthy again in 2019, Ozigbo could end up being the beneficiary of the added playing time.