We’re finally getting some UFC title fights in 2021. Three of them in fact. That will make cash games very interesting strategy-wise. You’ll want to stack or use dogs from Adesanya-Blachowicz or Yan-Sterling to stay up with opponents. There aren’t as many dogs that scream value but PPV cards usually have their share of upsets. We likely see at least one belt change hands. Add in that 15 fights are currently scheduled and it’s a Wild West type night for DFS. 

 

Main Event
Fighter(s)PriceOpponentRiskOdds
Jan Blachowicz vs Israel Adesanya7000/9200-Stackability: Safe200/ -220
The Super Fight no one was clamoring for. It’s at least an interesting clash of sizes with about a 50 lb true weight difference. If Izzy’s wrestling holds up that’s the end of that conversation. Jan is also a tough striking matchup so it’s a better fight on paper than buzz-wise. In the end, Izzy’s too hard to track down and too hard to time. A less than electric decision is likely going his way. Pretty stackable for the chance it goes five.
     
Expensive
Fighter(s)PriceOpponentRiskOdds
Amanda Nunes9600Megan AndersonSomewhat-Safe-900
An all time great and one of WMMA’s best wrestlers gets a tall striker who has major grappling holes. Should be a slam dunk. Big favorites have been losing at a weird rate but this is as safe as MMA gets.
Sean Brady9300Jake MatthewsSomewhat-Safe-210
Brady has dusted the low level competition he’s faced. This is a slight step up as Matthews is at least a great athlete. He’s not great at winning close fight’s, however. A Brady decision is going to fall short without some unforeseen grappling.
Mario Bautista9100Trevin JonesSomewhat-Safe#N/A
Bautista is ranked after Brady here based on the higher ceiling lower floor nature he represents. Giles is a bit of a can but still dangerous at times. Good for GPPs, not as good for cash.
Islam Makhachev9400Drew DoberModerate-370
Makhachev is likely to coast through fifteen minutes of Russian style domination. That’s a weak return on salary. Dober can also be dangerous in both striking and BJJ departments. This one’s a pass for me.
     
Mid-Range
Fighter(s)PriceOpponentRiskOdds
Petr Yan8400Aljamain SterlingModerate-112
This should be a frenetic fight. Yan is a wrecking ball once he gets going. Aljo is super slick and may be one of the few in the division faster than Yan. It’s a solid stack in that neither guy is wilting easily, even by sub (which is Aljo’s main out). The wind seems to be blowing Aljo’s way on ownership, so I’m a little more interested in Yan than I would be.
Casey Kenney8100Dominick CruzSomewhat-Risky-130
Kenney gets his shot at beating a name brand. He should be fast enough and dynamic enough to coral Cruz in the striking. Dom just doesn’t move like he used to. We don’t need a finish here for value but it’s in play.
Aleksandar Rakic8600Thiago SantosSomewhat-Risky-157
Rakic is basically a terminator. If you get caught clean by him it’s lights out. He’s also a decent enough wrestler, something that is a problem for Santos usually. Santos is equally devastating on the other side so don’t feel over confident in either guy.
Song Yadong8800Kyler PhillipsSomewhat-Risky-155
Yadong has been moving his way up the ranks with signature wins like his war with Marlon Vera. Anyone that can come out of a dogfight with Vera is legit. Phillips is a better athlete than fighter and that makes him a wildcard, so I’m using a limited amount of Yadong.
Tim Elliott8200Jordan EspinosaRisky-105
You just never know what you’re going to get from Elliott in the Octagon. He can be a wrestling machine but also gas in the process and get merced. Training with James Krause helped last fight, though. Espinosa is a good wrestle and athlete himself so I don’t see this being one of Elliott’s huge nights on DK but it’s always possible.
Kai Kara-France8500Rogerio BontorinRisky-135
KKF is finally lined appropriately in a fight. That has my interest. He’s probably too slick for Bontorin to use his Taz routine on. KKF can pick away and even has a slight chance for a KO.
Askar Askarov8300Joseph BenavidezRisky-122
Unless Askarov hits a surprise sub he’s facing an uphill battle here. The problem is we don’t know what Joe B has left in the tank after Figgy murdered him twice over.
Dominick Cruz8100Dominick CruzRisky120
Cruz has shocked us before, pulling out a win when it seemed long odds. Kenney is a nice young fighter but not a world beater. If Cruz can find some of that old magic and get 90% of his movement back he has a shot. Tough to do after 21 years as a pro, though.
     
Pay-Downs
Fighter(s)PriceOpponentRiskOdds
Aljamain Sterling7800Petr YanSomewhat-Risky102
Aljo is being touted heavily here. He’s hard to hit, electric quick, and has BJJ skills for days. It’s kind of the worst matchup for Yan. The fight should be great. Expect to see Aljo in almost every cash lineup.
Joseph Benavidez7900Askar AskarovSomewhat-Risky112
We get to find out just how much life Figgy stamped out of Joe B. He should be able to walk all over Askarov based on ability. He may also not remember his middle name at this point. Likely a popular play in both cash and GPP.
Thiago Santos7600Aleksandar RakicSomewhat-Risky147
It’s the same most fights with Santos, kill or be killed. That makes for fabulous GPP targets however unpredictable. I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised if the vet had a lesson to teach Rakic.
Jordan Espinosa8000Tim ElliottRisky-105
If Elliott decides to pull his march forward at all costs routine anyone can have a huge score against him. Espinosa is a better athlete and solid wrestler. That could lead to a KO if it has to stay standing and Elliott runs out of ideas.
Aalon Cruz7300Uros MedicRisky152
Cruz came into his debut against Spike Carlyle with some hype. He got sparked in a minute. That’ll happen against Spike. We’ll see if Cruz can right the ship against a grizzly but unknown opponent from the Alaska fight scene.
Drew Dober6800Islam MakhachevRisky330
Dober can drop anyone on the right night. Makhachev wouldn’t be the first prospect to learn this.
Kyler Phillips7400Song YadongRisky145
Phillips is a raw product but has promise. It’s surprising to see him take this fight but it would propel him up the rankings. It should be a close, fun fight. He’s a live dog.

 

 

Draftkings Core Plays
Top Tier
Amanda Nunes$9,600
Mario Bautista$9,100
Mid Tier
Aleksandar Rakic$8,600
Petr Yan$8,400
Value TierJoseph Benavidez$7,900
   
   
Fanduel Core Plays
Top Tier
Amanda Nunes$23
Mario Bautista$20
Mid Tier
Aljamain Sterling$17
Joseph Benavidez$15
Value TierAalon Cruz$10


Vegas Plays:

Favorite Bets: Benavidez +110, Kenney -130, Kara-France -135

Favorite Props: Rakic/Santos won’t start round 3 -135

Long Shot: Souza via SUB +1000

Live Dogs: Sterling, Benavidez, Blachowicz, Cruz, Souza, Nzechukwu

 

Stats & Picks: 

 

Jan BlachowiczvsIsrael Adesanya
$7,000DFS Salary$9,200
Record: 27-8-0RecordRecord: 20-0-0
8 KO/TKO (30%)Knockouts15 KO/TKO (75%)
9 SUBMISSIONS (33%)Subs0 SUBMISSIONS (0%)
200Vegas Odds-220
4/10Lineup Pool6/10
   
Amanda NunesvsMegan Anderson
$9,600DFS Salary$6,600
Record: 20-4-0RecordRecord: 11-4-0
13 KO/TKO (65%)Knockouts6 KO/TKO (55%)
3 SUBMISSIONS (15%)Subs
3 SUBMISSIONS (27%)
-900Vegas Odds700
9/10Lineup Pool1/10
   
Petr YanvsAljamain Sterling
$8,400DFS Salary$7,800
Record: 15-1-0RecordRecord: 19-3-0
7 KO/TKO (47%)Knockouts2 KO/TKO (11%)
1 SUBMISSIONS (7%)Subs
8 SUBMISSIONS (42%)
-112Vegas Odds102
5/10Lineup Pool5/10
   
Islam MakhachevvsDrew Dober
$9,400DFS Salary$6,800
Record: 18-1-0Record
Record: 23-9-0 (1 NC)
3 KO/TKO (17%)Knockouts10 KO/TKO (43%)
7 SUBMISSIONS (39%)Subs
6 SUBMISSIONS (26%)
-370Vegas Odds330
5/10Lineup Pool3/10
   
Thiago SantosvsAleksandar Rakic
$7,600DFS Salary$8,600
Record: 21-8-0RecordRecord: 13-2-0
15 KO/TKO (71%)Knockouts9 KO/TKO (69%)
1 SUBMISSIONS (5%)Subs1 SUBMISSIONS (8%)
147Vegas Odds-157
4/10Lineup Pool26/10
 0 
Dominick CruzvsCasey Kenney
$8,100DFS Salary$8,100
Record: 22-3-0RecordRecord: 16-2-1
7 KO/TKO (32%)Knockouts2 KO/TKO (13%)
1 SUBMISSIONS (5%)Subs
5 SUBMISSIONS (31%)
120Vegas Odds-130
3/10Lineup Pool6/10
   
Song YadongvsKyler Phillips
$8,800DFS Salary$7,400
Record: 16-4-1 (1 NC)RecordRecord: 8-1-0
6 KO/TKO (38%)Knockouts5 KO/TKO (63%)
3 SUBMISSIONS (19%)Subs
1 SUBMISSIONS (13%)
-155Vegas Odds145
5/10Lineup Pool3/10
   
Joseph BenavidezvsAskar Askarov
$7,900DFS Salary$8,300
Record: 28-7-0RecordRecord: 12-0-1
8 KO/TKO (29%)Knockouts3 KO/TKO (25%)
9 SUBMISSIONS (32%)Subs
7 SUBMISSIONS (58%)
112Vegas Odds-122
6/10Lineup Pool3/10
   
Rogerio BontorinvsKai Kara-France
$7,700DFS Salary$8,500
Record: 16-2-0 (1 NC)Record
Record: 21-9-0 (1 NC)
3 KO/TKO (19%)Knockouts9 KO/TKO (43%)
11 SUBMISSIONS (69%)Subs
3 SUBMISSIONS (14%)
115Vegas Odds-135
3/10Lineup Pool5/10
   
Tim ElliottvsJordan Espinosa
$8,200DFS Salary$8,000
Record: 17-11-1Record
Record: 15-8-0 (1 NC)
3 KO/TKO (19%)Knockouts2 KO/TKO (13%)
6 SUBMISSIONS (38%)Subs
7 SUBMISSIONS (47%)
-105Vegas Odds-105
6/10Lineup Pool4/10
   
Kennedy NzechukwuvsCarlos Ulberg
$7,200DFS Salary$9,000
Record: 7-1-0RecordRecord: 5-0-0
4 KO/TKO (57%)Knockouts2 KO/TKO (67%)
0 SUBMISSIONS (0%)Subs0 SUBMISSIONS (0%)
225Vegas Odds-245
4/10Lineup Pool4/10
   
Sean BradyvsJake Matthews
$9,300DFS Salary$6,900
Record: 13-0-0RecordRecord: 17-4-0
3 KO/TKO (23%)Knockouts4 KO/TKO (24%)
3 SUBMISSIONS (23%)Subs
7 SUBMISSIONS (41%)
-210Vegas Odds190
5/10Lineup Pool3/10
   
Livinha SouzavsAmanda Lemos
$7,500DFS Salary$8,700
Record: 14-2-0RecordRecord: 8-1-1
2 KO/TKO (14%)Knockouts5 KO/TKO (63%)
8 SUBMISSIONS (57%)Subs
2 SUBMISSIONS (25%)
200Vegas Odds-240
4/10Lineup Pool4/10
   
Mario BautistavsTrevin Jones
$9,100DFS Salary$7,100
 Record 
 Knockouts 
 Subs 
 Vegas Odds 
7/10Lineup Pool2/10
   
Aalon CruzvsUros Medic
$7,300DFS Salary$8,900
 Record 
 Knockouts 
 Subs 
 Vegas Odds 
6/10Lineup Pool3/10