The UFC is giving us another fight card filled with tough calls. That’s great from an entertainment standpoint but frustrating for projecting DFS. It also levels the playing field for folks with less entries. Take an extra chance or two on this slate.
Angela Hill vs. Ashley Yoder has been CANCELLED.
| Main Event | |||||
| Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Jairzinho Rozenstruik vs Ciryl Gane | 7200/9000 | - | Stackability: Safe | +225/ -265 | +295/+100 |
| This was a fairly unavoidable matchup but it’s still fun to see the UFC make a clash of up and coming HW killers. Gane is the rare elite athlete at this weight and uses that to push a pace. Jair is the opposite: sound technically but looking to wait and murder you with is power. The wildcard is Gane’s willingness to implement some grappling and BJJ. It’s not his bread and butter but he’s shown it when given the chance. Jair has little to no ground game. It’s as stackable as a HW bout gets, which is moderately, since Gane fights fast but safe. I’d lean Gane’s way but you’ll be wondering if that Jair killshot is coming for 25 minutes. | |||||
| Expensive | |||||
| Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Magomed Ankalaev | 9300 | Nikita Krylov | Somewhat-Safe | -370 | -115 |
| Ankalaev is turning the corner from prospect to contender. This is a nice test for him against a dangerous but beatable opponent. Ankalaev has a lower finish rate but Krylov tends to push his fights to a critical mass. | |||||
| Angela Hill | 9200 | Ashley Yoder | Somewhat-Safe | -370 | +445 |
| Hill takes two steps forward and one step back. She’s a great athlete with solid striking an pace. She’s closed the hole in her defensive wrestling for the most part, as well. She’s a good bet to win but might not exceed value. | |||||
| Sabina Mazo | 8900 | Alexis Davis | Somewhat-Safe | -210 | +410 |
| Volume is the name of the game with Mazo. She gets hit a bunch in return but has showed the grit to push harder than most of her opponents. It’s not without risk but her fights are all action and good to target. | |||||
| Alex Caceres | 8800 | Kevin Croom | Moderate | -210 | +400 |
| Caceras is a headache to handicap. He’s a balanced fighter with tons of UFC fights. His interest in DFS is for a possible submission finish. He’s not the most aggressive grappler but has plenty of tricks if things hit the mat. | |||||
| Mid-Range | |||||
| Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Alexander Hernandez | 8700 | Thiago Moises | Moderate | -225 | +295 |
| The UFC decided to match two of the fighter fades I’ve been most wrong on recently. My concern on Hernandez was his will to fight. He seems to have gotten over whatever was bothering him there. Moises can’t afford to strike with him and Hernandez strength edge probably forces him to. At the price he’ll be a top owned play. | |||||
| Ronnie Lawrence | 8600 | Vince Cachero | Somewhat-Risky | -160 | +385 |
| Lawrence is of particular interest as a projectable wrestler. He’s going to spend much of his attention working for takedowns. That’s what we love for DFS. There’s risk, just as every UFC debutant is a risk. Another highly owned fighter here. | |||||
| Dustin Jacoby | 8500 | Maxim Grishin | Somewhat-Risky | -172 | +180 |
| The reinvented Jacoby could be trouble for these lower tier LWHs. His achilles heel is grappling and Grishin has some skill there but not enough to make me pick against the favorite. Jacoby comes to bang and Grishin will be hard pressed to match that. | |||||
| Mayra Bueno Silva | 8400 | Montana De La Rosa | Somewhat-Risky | -140 | +230 |
| We can a face off of grappler with developing striking here. I still give the edge on the feet to Bueno Silva. She should be the busier woman with the inside track to a decision win. | |||||
| Jimmie Rivera | 8300 | Pedro Munhoz | Risky | -150 | +585 |
| Rivera’s style just doesn’t lend itself to DFS scoring. He’s a very good fighter. A win over Munoz solidifies him as a top 5 guy in the division. It’s not likely a measured decision pays your DK bills, though. | |||||
| Pay-Downs | |||||
| Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Pedro Munhoz | 7900 | Jimmie Rivera | Somewhat-Risky | +130 | +355 |
| Munhoz could be one of the few fighters able to draw Rivera into a fire fight. We’ve also seen Rivera dropped before. Then there’s Munhoz’ tighter than tight guillotine. He’s the better DFS play in this fight even if the underdog. | |||||
| Maxim Grishin | 7700 | Dustin Jacoby | Somewhat-Risky | +152 | +360 |
| The overly cautious Grishin isn’t a great bet to win this fight. His main out is getting it to the mat early and submitting the kickboxer Jacoby. That isn’t likely but bears inclusion as it’s his best path to victory. | |||||
| Montana De La Rosa | 7800 | Mayra Bueno Silva | Risky | +120 | +705 |
| I suppose De La Rosa could win a grappling exchange and submit MBS. She’s another likely loser that would score well in a win. | |||||
| Nikita Krylov | 6900 | Magomed Ankalaev | Risky | +310 | +540 |
| All but 2 of Krylov’s 34 fights have finished inside the distance one way or the other (though those 2 are his most recent fights). He’s a capable finisher but someone who also makes his share of mistakes. Ankalaev has one loss but it was a fluke triangle when he got careless. | |||||
| Vince Cachero | 7600 | Ronnie Lawrence | Risky | +140 | +485 |
| There could be value on Cachero given his last fight was a one sided loss and Lawrence has some hype behind him. It’s not a spot I see being an upset but it is the context that has been profitable lately. | |||||
| Alexis Davis | 7300 | Sabina Mazo | Risky | +175 | +785 |
| Davis isn’t great technically speaking but wants to wrestle. Mazo has no showed in a couple spots in the UFC. Maybe she gets the wet blanket treatment. I don’t expect it but we have to remember fighter progression isn’t linear. Mazo could be due for an L. | |||||
Core Plays:
| Draftkings Core Plays | ||
Top Tier | Magomed Ankalaev | $9,300 |
| Sabina Mazo | $8,900 | |
Mid Tier | Alexander Hernandez | $8,700 |
| Ronnie Lawrence | $8,600 | |
| Value Tier | Pedro Munhoz | $7,900 |
| Fanduel Core Plays | ||
Top Tier | Magomed Ankalaev | $23 |
| Alexander Hernandez | $20 | |
Mid Tier | Sabina Mazo | $19 |
| Ronnie Lawrence | $18 | |
| Value Tier | Mayra Bueno Silva | $16 |
Vegas Bets:
Favorite Bets: Jacoby -172, Lawrence -160
Favorite Props: Hernandez ITD +295
Live Dogs: Rozenstruik, Munhoz, Krylov, Grishin, Cachero
Stats & Picks:
| Jairzinho Rozenstruik | vs | Ciryl Gane |
| $7,200 | DFS Salary | $9,000 |
| Record: 11-1-0 | Record | Record: 7-0-0 |
| 10 KO/TKO (91%) | Knockouts | 3 KO/TKO (43%) |
| 0 SUBMISSIONS (0%) | Subs | 3 SUBMISSIONS (43%) |
| +225 | Vegas Odds | -265 |
| 4/10 | Lineup Pool | 6/10 |
| Nikita Krylov | vs | Magomed Ankalaev |
| $6,900 | DFS Salary | $9,300 |
| Record: 27-7-0 | Record | Record: 14-1-0 |
| 11 KO/TKO (41%) | Knockouts | 9 KO/TKO (64%) |
| 15 SUBMISSIONS (56%) | Subs | 0 SUBMISSIONS (0%) |
| +310 | Vegas Odds | -370 |
| 3/10 | Lineup Pool | 6/10 |
| Montana De La Rosa | vs | Mayra Bueno Silva |
| $7,800 | DFS Salary | $8,400 |
| Record: 11-6-0 | Record | Record: 7-1-0 |
| 0 KO/TKO (0%) | Knockouts | 1 KO/TKO (14%) |
| 8 SUBMISSIONS (73%) | Subs | 5 SUBMISSIONS (71%) |
| +120 | Vegas Odds | -140 |
| 2/10 | Lineup Pool | 6/10 |
| Pedro Munhoz | vs | Jimmie Rivera |
| $7,900 | DFS Salary | $8,300 |
| Record: 18-5-0 (1 NC) | Record | Record: 23-4-0 |
| 5 KO/TKO (28%) | Knockouts | 4 KO/TKO (17%) |
| 8 SUBMISSIONS (44%) | Subs | 2 SUBMISSIONS (9%) |
| +130 | Vegas Odds | -150 |
| 4/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
| Alex Caceres | vs | Kevin Croom |
| $8,800 | DFS Salary | $7,400 |
| Record: 17-12-0 (1 NC) | Record | Record: 21-12-0 (1 NC) |
| 3 KO/TKO (18%) | Knockouts | 6 KO/TKO (29%) |
| 6 SUBMISSIONS (35%) | Subs | 10 SUBMISSIONS (48%) |
| -210 | Vegas Odds | +175 |
| 4/10 | Lineup Pool2 | 4/10 |
| 0 | ||
| Alexander Hernandez | vs | Thiago Moises |
| $8,700 | DFS Salary | $7,500 |
| Record: 12-3-0 | Record | Record: 14-4-0 |
| 5 KO/TKO (42%) | Knockouts | 3 KO/TKO (21%) |
| 2 SUBMISSIONS (17%) | Subs | 6 SUBMISSIONS (43%) |
| -225 | Vegas Odds | +185 |
| 7/10 | Lineup Pool | 3/10 |
| Alex Oliveira | vs | Ramazan Kuramagomedov |
| $7,900 | DFS Salary | $8,300 |
| Record: 22-9-1 (2 NC) | Record | Record: 8-0-0 |
| 12 KO/TKO (55%) | Knockouts | |
| 5 SUBMISSIONS (23%) | Subs | |
| -110 | Vegas Odds | -110 |
| 4/10 | Lineup Pool | 5/10 |
| Alexis Davis | vs | Sabina Mazo |
| $7,300 | DFS Salary | $8,900 |
| Record: 19-10-0 | Record | Record: 9-1-0 |
| 2 KO/TKO (11%) | Knockouts | 2 KO/TKO (22%) |
| 8 SUBMISSIONS (42%) | Subs | 1 SUBMISSIONS (11%) |
| +175 | Vegas Odds | -210 |
| 3/10 | Lineup Pool | 6/10 |
| Vince Cachero | vs | Ronnie Lawrence |
| $7,600 | DFS Salary | $8,600 |
| Record: 7-3-0 | Record | Record: 6-1-0 |
| 2 KO/TKO (29%) | Knockouts | 3 KO/TKO (50%) |
| 2 SUBMISSIONS (29%) | Subs | 0 SUBMISSIONS (0%) |
| +140 | Vegas Odds | -160 |
| 3/10 | Lineup Pool | 6/10 |
| Dustin Jacoby | vs | Maxim Grishin |
| $8,500 | DFS Salary | $7,700 |
| Record: 13-5-0 | Record | Record: 31-8-2 |
| 9 KO/TKO (69%) | Knockouts | 16 KO/TKO (52%) |
| 1 SUBMISSIONS (8%) | Subs | 6 SUBMISSIONS (19%) |
| -172 | Vegas Odds | +152 |
| 5/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |