There’s something special Conor McGregor brings to a fight card. The broad interest he draws has all eyes on MMA for a weekend. That means bigger contests, newer players, and hopefully smoother nights in the money. If you missed last week’s note, Draftkings has updated their MMA scoring. We want projectable wrestling more than ever. Good luck and may the sports be with you.
| Main Event | |||||
| Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Dustin Poirier vs Conor McGregor | 7100/9100 | - | Stackability: Safe | +245/ -290 | +455/-195 |
| We get a rematch with the same title implications as the first time these two fought. The winner is very likely to fight for the soon to be vacated lightweight belt. Conor is beefier than ever and will look to deploy his devastating counter striking game. Dustin’s path to victory is to weather the early storm and tire McGregor, then out pace or look to submit him. No one besides Nate Diaz has been able to eat Conor’s power, however. We need a KO to happen in the first two or last two rounds to hit value. | |||||
| Expensive | |||||
| Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Amanda Ribas | 9200 | Marina Rodriguez | Somewhat-Safe | -310 | +210 |
| After McGregor, Ribas will be the next highest owned top tier fighter. She has a good chance to mix in grappling with a solid striking volume. Rodriguez has gotten stuck on her back for entire rounds before. She also pushes the pace on the feet. | |||||
| Arman Tsarukyan | 8900 | Matt Frevola | Somewhat-Safe | -300 | +355 |
| Tsarukyan gets a slightly easier opponent in Matt Frevola after Haqparast dropped out Friday. His wrestle-control approach should be even easiest to deploy. Frevola tends to go all out so it makes Tsarukyan slightly more live to win ITD. | |||||
| Movsar Evloev | 9400 | Nik Lentz | Somewhat-Safe | -550 | +305 |
| Evloev is a bad matchup for Lentz, period. Barring a fluke submission he’s going to get out-struck, out-grappled, and controlled. It’s not going to come with a high pace, however. That makes Evloev by decision a good bet but mediocre DK play. | |||||
| Khalil Rountree Jr. | 9300 | Marcin Prachnio | Somewhat-Risky | -340 | -195 |
| Someone is getting KO'd in this fight. I'd slightly favor Rountree in that coin flip but the price and line don't accurately reflect how much of a chance Rountree has to be the one getting chin checked. His Muay Thai is sharp if his opponent allows him to strike from range. Prachnio tends to rush in and force the issue, though. Hence the coin flip nature. Be careful here as ownership will be high. | |||||
| Mid-Range | |||||
| Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Dan Hooker | 8500 | Michael Chandler | Moderate | -130 | +173 |
| I think Hooker embaresses Chandler in his UFC debut. Unless Chandler can hold the bigger man down for long periods he’s going to get teed off on by Hooker’s six inch reach advantage. Hooker also hits pretty darn hard. A decision could come with pace if the finish doesn't come. | |||||
| Makhmud Muradov | 8600 | Andrew Sanchez | Somewhat-Risky | -140 | +215 |
| Makh gets a real test finally in the UFC. It’s a very winnable fight but he’ll have to prove he can handle Sanchez’s strong grappling. He physically strong enough so we’ll see about his technique. He’s a very good kickboxer so it’s a likely decision win if his grappling checks out. There's some chance he lands a KO with his big power. | |||||
| Joanne Calderwood | 8400 | Jessica Eye | Somewhat-Risky | -120 | +640 |
| JoJo should be able to win a close fight here. Eye is good at winning close fights against people she’s better than. I don’t think she can match Calderwood in the range striking, though. JoJo’s kick volume pads her strike totals nicely, too. | |||||
| Brad Tavares | 8700 | Antonio Carlos Junior | Somewhat-Risky | -125 | +365 |
| Tavares star has fallen fairly far. The mileage of fighting could be catching up with him. If not, he was a top ten gatekeeper that was always a tough out. ACJ isn’t a top ten guy. | |||||
| Sara McMann | 8200 | Julianna Pena | Risky | -130 | +390 |
| For McMann to hit she’ll need more wrestling volume. She’s going to win the grappling but sometimes is too strong and doesn’t accumulate stats during heavy top control. I think Pena is strong enough and has the BJJ to make some back and forth happen. McMann has quit in the ring before and doesn’t like getting bullied, so there’s always risk with her. | |||||
| Julianna Pena | 8000 | Sara McMann | Risky | +110 | +350 |
| Pena never quite iced up to the hype she built as an attractive and aggressive female fighter. The upper levels have been too tall a task, whether it’s a question of skill or training as she’s had her share of bad luck outside the ring. Her physicality and mean streak are possible problems for McMann. | |||||
| Pay-Downs | |||||
| Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Amir Albazi | 7900 | Zhalgas Zhumagulov | Somewhat-Risky | -105 | +400 |
| For Albazi to be worth rostering he’ll need to show his wrestling is truly elite. We have reason to think it is but Zhalgas is a huge test for anyone. Dude is strong and stout and awkward to fight. He’s not elite, however, and could get finished by the better fighter in the UFC. | |||||
| Antonio Carlos Junior | 7500 | Brad Tavares | Somewhat-Risky | +105 | +275 |
| Shoeface is live for a first round submission. His BJJ is good and he can wrestle when he has the energy. If he doesn’t get it done early it’s probably going to turn into a grinding decision loss. He’s one of the better dogs for GPPs. | |||||
| Matt Frevola | 7400 | Ottman Azaitar | Somewhat-Risky | +135 | +305 |
| Frevola was an interesting dog against Azaitar. Now facing Tsarukyan it’s a much more daunting prospect of victory. Still, the guy is scrappy and has learned how to win a dog fight. | |||||
| Michael Chandler | 7700 | Dan Hooker | Risky | +110 | +360 |
| I’m worried that I’m counting Chandler out as a stronger wrestler than expected. If he gets Hooker stuck on his back that takes away so many of the taller man’s tools. Hooker did have struggles with that early in his UFC career. | |||||
| Andrew Sanchez | 7600 | Makhmud Muradov | Risky | +120 | +400 |
| Sanchez gets a bit of a bum wrap for being a quitter and gassing. He pushes a grappling pace that is exhausting for all parties. He’s fought the much better competition so he won’t feel the pressure Makh does. If he can land multiple takedowns there’s a path to value. | |||||
| Marina Rodriguez | 7000 | Amanda Ribas | Risky | +255 | +875 |
| If Marina is able to stuff the wrestling of Ribas I expect her to have the output and technical advantages on the feet. She’s been plagued by 10-8 rounds and draws after getting stuck on the mat, however. There are few dogs to like so she’s worthy of consideration at the price. | |||||
| Marcin Prachnio | 6900 | Khalil Rountree Jr. | Risky | +270 | +483 |
| As bad as his own chin and face-forward approach are, Prachnio is going to swing at Rountree until he’s out. That’s concerning for Rountree backers. We’ve seen him have durability concerns and get KO’d quickly. I’m not betting big that it will happen but Prachnio is live for a flash KO. | |||||
| Nik Lentz | 6800 | Movsar Evloev | Risky | +425 | +650 |
| Lentz can squeeze a guillotine pretty hard. He’d need to catch Evloev unaware, though. | |||||
| Draftkings Core Plays | ||
Top Tier | Conor McGregor | $9,100 |
| Amanda Ribas | $9,200 | |
Mid Tier | Dan Hooker | $8,500 |
| Sara McMann | $8,200 | |
| Value Tier | Antonio Carlos Junior | $7,500 |
| Fanduel Core Plays | ||
Top Tier | Conor McGregor | $21 |
| Amanda Ribas | $20 | |
Mid Tier | Makhmud Muradov | $17 |
| Joanne Calderwood | $15 | |
| Value Tier | Antonio Carlos Junior | $11 |
Favorite Bets: Hooker -130, McGregor ITD -195, McMann -130
Favorite Props: Evloev via DEC -145
Live Dogs: Prachnio ITD +485
Stats & Picks:
| Dustin Poirier | vs | Conor McGregor |
| $7,100 | DFS Salary | $9,100 |
| Record: 26-6-0 (1 NC) | Record | Record: 22-4-0 |
| 12 KO/TKO (46%) | Knockouts | 19 KO/TKO (86%) |
| 7 SUBMISSIONS (27%) | Subs | 1 SUBMISSIONS (5%) |
| +245 | Vegas Odds | -290 |
| 3/10 | Lineup Pool | 7/10 |
| Dan Hooker | vs | Michael Chandler |
| $8,500 | DFS Salary | $7,700 |
| Record: 20-9-0 | Record | Record: 21-5-0 |
| 12 KO/TKO (46%) | Knockouts | 19 KO/TKO (86%) |
| 7 SUBMISSIONS (27%) | Subs | 1 SUBMISSIONS (5%) |
| -130 | Vegas Odds | +110 |
| 6/10 | Lineup Pool | 3/10 |
| Jessica Eye | vs | Joanne Calderwood |
| $7,800 | DFS Salary | $8,400 |
| Record: 15-8-0 (1 NC) | Record | Record: 14-5-0 |
| 9 KO/TKO (43%) | Knockouts | 10 KO/TKO (50%) |
| 7 SUBMISSIONS (33%) | Subs | 7 SUBMISSIONS (35%) |
| +100 | Vegas Odds | -120 |
| 3/10 | Lineup Pool | 5/10 |
| Marina Rodriguez | vs | Amanda Ribas |
| $7,000 | DFS Salary | $9,200 |
| Record: 12-1-2 | Record | Record: 10-1-0 |
| 16 KO/TKO (67%) | Knockouts | 6 KO/TKO (50%) |
| 3 SUBMISSIONS (13%) | Subs | 2 SUBMISSIONS (17%) |
| +255 | Vegas Odds | -310 |
| 3/10 | Lineup Pool2 | 7/10 |
| 0 | ||
| Arman Tsarukyan | vs | Matt Frevola |
| $8,900 | DFS Salary | $7,400 |
| Record: 15-2-0 | Record | Record: 8-1-1 |
| 5 KO/TKO (42%) | Knockouts | 3 KO/TKO (30%) |
| 1 SUBMISSIONS (8%) | Subs | 4 SUBMISSIONS (40%) |
| -300 | Vegas Odds | +135 |
| 5/10 | Lineup Pool | 2/10 |
| Brad Tavares | vs | Antonio Carlos Junior |
| $8,700 | DFS Salary | $7,500 |
| Record: 17-7-0 | Record | Record: 11-4-0 (1 NC) |
| 5 KO/TKO (33%) | Knockouts | 1 KO/TKO (13%) |
| 5 SUBMISSIONS (33%) | Subs | 3 SUBMISSIONS (38%) |
| -125 | Vegas Odds | +105 |
| 4/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
| Julianna Pena | vs | Sara McMann |
| $8,000 | DFS Salary | $8,200 |
| Record: 10-4-0 | Record | Record: 12-5-0 |
| 5 KO/TKO (29%) | Knockouts | 0 KO/TKO (0%) |
| 2 SUBMISSIONS (12%) | Subs | 8 SUBMISSIONS (80%) |
| +110 | Vegas Odds | -130 |
| 4/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
| Khalil Rountree Jr. | vs | Marcin Prachnio |
| $9,300 | DFS Salary | $6,900 |
| Record: 9-4-0 (1 NC) | Record | Record: 13-5-0 |
| 3 KO/TKO (33%) | Knockouts | 1 KO/TKO (8%) |
| 3 SUBMISSIONS (33%) | Subs | 5 SUBMISSIONS (42%) |
| -340 | Vegas Odds | +270 |
| 5/10 | Lineup Pool | 5/10 |
| Andrew Sanchez | vs | Makhmud Muradov |
| $7,600 | DFS Salary | $8,600 |
| Record: 13-5-0 | Record | Record: 24-6-0 |
| 5 KO/TKO (63%) | Knockouts | 10 KO/TKO (77%) |
| 0 SUBMISSIONS (0%) | Subs | 1 SUBMISSIONS (8%) |
| +120 | Vegas Odds | -140 |
| 4/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
| Nik Lentz | vs | Movsar Evloev |
| $6,800 | DFS Salary | $9,400 |
| Record: 30-11-2 (1 NC) | Record | Record: 13-0-0 |
| 6 KO/TKO (50%) | Knockouts | 16 KO/TKO (67%) |
| 2 SUBMISSIONS (17%) | Subs | 3 SUBMISSIONS (13%) |
| +425 | Vegas Odds | -550 |
| 3/10 | Lineup Pool | 5/10 |
| Amir Albazi | vs | Zhalgas Zhumagulov |
| $7,900 | DFS Salary | $8,300 |
| Record: 13-1-0 | Record | Record: 13-4-0 |
| 11 KO/TKO (37%) | Knockouts | 3 KO/TKO (23%) |
| 8 SUBMISSIONS (27%) | Subs | 4 SUBMISSIONS (31%) |
| -105 | Vegas Odds | -115 |
| 5/10 | Lineup Pool | 3/10 |