The UFC is cramming a Wednesday card in since they've got all their people in Abu Dhabi. A card with a 9:00AM ET start, no less. Weird day and time aside it's actually a solid card. Keep in mind that we're looking for grappling points wherever possible with the new DraftKings scoring.
Main Event | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
Neil Magny vs. Michael Chiesa | 8300/7900 | - | Stackability: Safe | #VALUE! | #VALUE! |
This is a nice match up with division hierarchy at stake. Chiesa has improved his striking greatly but it's still not on the rangy Magny's level. If Chiesa hopes to avoid getting volumed to death he'll probably need a submission. He's deadly on the ground but Magny is a very solid wrestler. Stay away from the cash stack. | |||||
Expensive | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
Umar Nurmagomedov | 9500 | Sergey Morozov | Somewhat-Safe | #N/A | #N/A |
An actual cousin to Khabub, Umar is supposed to be the next, next Dhagesthni. He's had a hard time getting into the octagon but this is a more than manageable debut. He's going to have to smash to be optimal at the price. He has the wrestling to do it. | |||||
Su Mudaerji | 9300 | Zarrukh Adashev | Somewhat-Safe | #N/A | #N/A |
Mudaerji is a one dimensional striker. He's an excellent striker, though. His team did a great job selecting this opponent. Adashev has little wrestling to speak of. He was also one-shot KO'd in his short notice debut. | |||||
Ricky Simon | 9400 | Gaetano Pirrello | Moderate | #N/A | #N/A |
Let's hope Ricky don't lose that number and piles up the takedowns and control time. The new DK scoring makes projectable grapplers our hottest commodity. | |||||
Mounir Lazzez | 9000 | Warlley Alves | Moderate | #N/A | #N/A |
We have to be cautious not to buy into too much of Lazzez's hype but he's a truly dynamic striker. He's also big for the division with nice reach. Alves tends to gas toward the end of the first round. That's hopefully leading to a nice win bouns for Lazzez. | |||||
Lerone Murphy | 9200 | Douglas Silva de Andrade | Moderate | #N/A | #N/A |
Andrade can be a tough stylistic matchup. Lerone has the athletecism to meet the challenge, though. | |||||
Mid-Range | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
Tyson Nam | 8400 | Matt Schnell | Moderate | #N/A | #N/A |
Nam may not showcase it but as a veteran fighter from a good camp his wrestling is sound. Schnell will have a hard time submitting him. Schnell also tends to press forward. That's great news for the patient counter striker, Nam. | |||||
Dalcha Lungiambula | 8600 | Markus Perez | Somewhat-Risky | #N/A | #N/A |
Dalcha champ has some rough edges but he's an absolute truck. He's tough to keep a hold of and swings with murderous power. Perez was KO'd by less than devastating shots in his last fight. | |||||
Mike Davis | 8800 | Mason Jones | Somewhat-Risky | #N/A | #N/A |
Davis will be the best fighter Jones has faced. The reverse isn't true. It's going to be a fun, action packed fight. The winner is likely a must own. | |||||
Francisco Figueiredo | 8500 | Jerome Rivera | Somewhat-Risky | #N/A | #N/A |
Franky Figs is Deiveson's brother. He's pretty similar stylistically as a tough ass Brazilian dude. That's been enough to get him to the UFC, training with his brother. We'll see how far he goes against real competition. | |||||
Ike Villanueva | 8200 | Vinicius Moreira | Risky | #N/A | #N/A |
Usually it's an auto pick against Moreira, who has no chin, doesn't avoid exchanges, and brutal tall man defense. Villanueva has some similar issues, though. | |||||
Vinicius Moreira | 8000 | Ike Villanueva | Risky | #N/A | #N/A |
Moreira has Glass Joe's chin but doesn't hesitate to brawl. His BJJ is strong if he managed to get the fight there. Villanueva is also 0-2 in the UFC, both losses by KO. | |||||
Pay-Downs | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
Omari Akhmedov | 7500 | Tom Breese | Somewhat-Risky | #N/A | #N/A |
This is an odd fight for Breese to take. Akhmedov is strong everywhere and only tends to lose after tiring in the later rounds. Breese will be in real trouble if the Russian ends up on top of him. | |||||
Mason Jones | 7400 | Mike Davis | Somewhat-Risky | #N/A | #N/A |
Coming out of Cage Warriors with a perfect record means more than most other promotions. Jones has made his way with heavy hands and early KOs. This is an excellent first test. | |||||
Victoria Leonardo | 7300 | Manon Fiorot | Somewhat-Risky | #N/A | #N/A |
The UFC knows they have to take it slow with Leonardo, fresh off the contender series. Fiorot is a good striker but may be susceptible to Leonardo's spam grappling. | |||||
Roxanne Modafferi | 7100 | Viviane Araujo | Risky | #N/A | #N/A |
Roxi has shown us time and again that being a better fighter can be achieved mentally. The long odds upset her specialty. | |||||
Markus Perez | 7600 | Dalcha Lungiambula | Risky | #N/A | #N/A |
Perez main path to victory is tiring Dalcha and submitting him. He'll have to stay conscious to get it that far. | |||||
Gaetano Pirrello | #N/A | #N/A | Risky | #N/A | #N/A |
Pirrello is a striker facing a guy with a shaky chin. All you can ask for in a punchers chance. | |||||
Warlley Alves | 7200 | Mounir Lazzez | Risky | #N/A | #N/A |
We have the punchers chance spot and the submission chance spot here. Alves would need an early takedown and to get straight to work on the sub. He's a veteran facing a green fighter, though. |
Draftkings Core Plays | ||
Top Tier | Su Mudaerji | $9,300 |
Ricky Simon | $9,400 | |
Mid Tier | Tyson Nam | $8,400 |
Dalcha Lungiambula | $8,600 | |
Value Tier | Omari Akhmedov | $7,500 |
Fanduel Core Plays | ||
Top Tier | Ricky Simon | $21 |
Mounir Lazzez | $20 | |
Mid Tier | Neil Magny | $18 |
Tyson Nam | $17 | |
Value Tier | Roxanne Modafferi | $9 |
Favorite Bets: Magny -145, Nam -130, Akhmedov +140
Favorite Props: Villanueva/Moreira UNDER 2.5 rounds -270
Live Dogs: Akhmedov, Jones, Leonardo, Modefferi, Perez
Stats & Picks:
Michael Chiesa | vs | Neil Magny |
$7,900 | DFS Salary | $8,300 |
Record: 17-4-0 | Record | Record: 24-8-0 |
0 KO/TKO (0%) | Knockouts | 7 KO/TKO (29%) |
11 SUBMISSIONS (65%) | Subs | 3 SUBMISSIONS (13% |
125 | Vegas Odds | -145 |
4/10 | Lineup Pool | 6/10 |
Warlley Alves | vs | Mounir Lazzez |
$7,200 | DFS Salary | $9,000 |
Record: 14-4-0 | Record | Record: 10-1-0 |
3 KO/TKO (23%) | Knockouts | 8 KO/TKO (80%) |
6 SUBMISSIONS (46%) | Subs | 0 SUBMISSIONS (0%) |
200 | Vegas Odds | -240 |
3/10 | Lineup Pool | 7/10 |
Ike Villanueva | vs | Vinicius Moreira |
$8,200 | DFS Salary | $8,000 |
Record: 16-11-0 | Record | Record: 9-4-0 |
14 KO/TKO (82%) | Knockouts | 1 KO/TKO (11%) |
0 SUBMISSIONS (0%) | Subs | 8 SUBMISSIONS (89% |
#N/A | Vegas Odds | 120 |
4/10 | Lineup Pool | 5/10 |
Roxanne Modafferi | vs | Viviane Araujo |
$7,100 | DFS Salary | $9,100 |
Record: 25-18-0 | Record | Record: 9-2-0 |
4 KO/TKO (16%) | Knockouts | 3 KO/TKO (33%) |
5 SUBMISSIONS (20%) | Subs | 4 SUBMISSIONS (44%) |
270 | Vegas Odds | -330 |
4/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
Matt Schnell | vs | Tyson Nam |
$7,800 | DFS Salary | $8,400 |
Record: 14-5-0 | Record | Record: 20-11-1 |
2 KO/TKO (14%) | Knockouts | 12 KO/TKO (60%) |
8 SUBMISSIONS (57%) | Subs | 1 SUBMISSIONS (5%) |
110 | Vegas Odds | -130 |
3/10 | Lineup Pool2 | 7/10 |
0 | ||
Lerone Murphy | vs | Douglas Silva de Andrade |
$9,200 | DFS Salary | $7,000 |
Record: 9-0-1 | Record | Record: 26-3-0 (1 NC) |
6 KO/TKO (67%) | Knockouts | 19 KO/TKO (73%) |
0 SUBMISSIONS (0%) | Subs | 1 SUBMISSIONS (4%) |
-310 | Vegas Odds | 255 |
6/10 | Lineup Pool | 2/10 |
Omari Akhmedov | vs | Tom Breese |
$7,500 | DFS Salary | $8,700 |
Record: 20-5-1 | Record | Record: 12-2-0 |
7 KO/TKO (35%) | Knockouts | 5 KO/TKO (42%) |
5 SUBMISSIONS (25%) | Subs | 6 SUBMISSIONS (50%) |
140 | Vegas Odds | -160 |
5/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
Ricky Simon | vs | Gaetano Pirrello |
$9,400 | DFS Salary | $6,800 |
Record: 16-3-0 | Record | Record: 15-5-1 |
5 KO/TKO (31%) | Knockouts | 11 KO/TKO (73%) |
2 SUBMISSIONS (13%) | Subs | 3 SUBMISSIONS (20%) |
-450 | Vegas Odds | 360 |
7/10 | Lineup Pool | 2/10 |
Su Mudaerji | vs | Zarrukh Adashev |
$9,300 | DFS Salary | $6,900 |
Record: 13-4-0 | Record | Record: 3-2-0 |
11 KO/TKO (85%) | Knockouts | 2 KO/TKO (67%) |
1 SUBMISSIONS (8%) | Subs | 0 SUBMISSIONS (0%) |
-470 | Vegas Odds | 375 |
7/10 | Lineup Pool | 2/10 |
Dalcha Lungiambula | vs | Markus Perez |
$8,600 | DFS Salary | $7,600 |
Record: 10-2-0 | Record | Record: 12-4-0 |
5 KO/TKO (50%) | Knockouts | 3 KO/TKO (25%) |
1 SUBMISSIONS (10%) | Subs | 6 SUBMISSIONS (50%) |
-135 | Vegas Odds | 115 |
6/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
Francisco Figueiredo | vs | Jerome Rivera |
$8,500 | DFS Salary | $7,700 |
Record: 11-3-1 (1 NC) | Record | Record: 10-3-0 |
3 KO/TKO (27%) | Knockouts | 0 KO/TKO (0%) |
7 SUBMISSIONS (64%) | Subs | 7 SUBMISSIONS (70%) |
#N/A | Vegas Odds | 130 |
5/10 | Lineup Pool | 3/10 |
Mike Davis | vs | Mason Jones |
$8,800 | DFS Salary | $7,400 |
Record: 8-2-0 | Record | Record: 10-0-0 |
7 KO/TKO (88%) | Knockouts | 4 KO/TKO (40%) |
1 SUBMISSIONS (13%) | Subs | 3 SUBMISSIONS (30%) |
-160 | Vegas Odds | 140 |
6/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
Umar Nurmagomedov | vs | Sergey Morozov |
$9,500 | DFS Salary | #N/A |
Record: 12-0-0 | Record | Record: 16-3-0 |
1 KO/TKO (8%) | Knockouts | 8 KO/TKO (50%) |
5 SUBMISSIONS (42%) | Subs | 3 SUBMISSIONS (19%) |
-525 | Vegas Odds | 415 |
7/10 | Lineup Pool | 2/10 |