The UFC is cramming a Wednesday card in since they've got all their people in Abu Dhabi. A card with a 9:00AM ET start, no less. Weird day and time aside it's actually a solid card. Keep in mind that we're looking for grappling points wherever possible with the new DraftKings scoring. 

 

Main Event
Fighter(s)PriceOpponentRiskOddsITD
Neil Magny vs. Michael Chiesa8300/7900-Stackability: Safe#VALUE!#VALUE!
This is a nice match up with division hierarchy at stake. Chiesa has improved his striking greatly but it's still not on the rangy Magny's level. If Chiesa hopes to avoid getting volumed to death he'll probably need a submission. He's deadly on the ground but Magny is a very solid wrestler. Stay away from the cash stack.
      
Expensive
Fighter(s)PriceOpponentRiskOddsITD
Umar Nurmagomedov9500Sergey MorozovSomewhat-Safe#N/A#N/A
An actual cousin to Khabub, Umar is supposed to be the next, next Dhagesthni. He's had a hard time getting into the octagon but this is a more than manageable debut. He's going to have to smash to be optimal at the price. He has the wrestling to do it.
Su Mudaerji9300Zarrukh AdashevSomewhat-Safe#N/A#N/A
Mudaerji is a one dimensional striker. He's an excellent striker, though. His team did a great job selecting this opponent. Adashev has little wrestling to speak of. He was also one-shot KO'd in his short notice debut.
Ricky Simon9400Gaetano PirrelloModerate#N/A#N/A
Let's hope Ricky don't lose that number and piles up the takedowns and control time. The new DK scoring makes projectable grapplers our hottest commodity.
Mounir Lazzez9000Warlley AlvesModerate#N/A#N/A
We have to be cautious not to buy into too much of Lazzez's hype but he's a truly dynamic striker. He's also big for the division with nice reach. Alves tends to gas toward the end of the first round. That's hopefully leading to a nice win bouns for Lazzez.
Lerone Murphy9200Douglas Silva de AndradeModerate#N/A#N/A
Andrade can be a tough stylistic matchup. Lerone has the athletecism to meet the challenge, though.
      
Mid-Range
Fighter(s)PriceOpponentRiskOddsITD
Tyson Nam8400Matt SchnellModerate#N/A#N/A
Nam may not showcase it but as a veteran fighter from a good camp his wrestling is sound. Schnell will have a hard time submitting him. Schnell also tends to press forward. That's great news for the patient counter striker, Nam.
Dalcha Lungiambula8600Markus PerezSomewhat-Risky#N/A#N/A
Dalcha champ has some rough edges but he's an absolute truck. He's tough to keep a hold of and swings with murderous power. Perez was KO'd by less than devastating shots in his last fight.
Mike Davis8800Mason JonesSomewhat-Risky#N/A#N/A
Davis will be the best fighter Jones has faced. The reverse isn't true. It's going to be a fun, action packed fight. The winner is likely a must own.
Francisco Figueiredo8500Jerome RiveraSomewhat-Risky#N/A#N/A
Franky Figs is Deiveson's brother. He's pretty similar stylistically as a tough ass Brazilian dude. That's been enough to get him to the UFC, training with his brother. We'll see how far he goes against real competition.
Ike Villanueva8200Vinicius MoreiraRisky#N/A#N/A
Usually it's an auto pick against Moreira, who has no chin, doesn't avoid exchanges, and brutal tall man defense. Villanueva has some similar issues, though.
Vinicius Moreira8000Ike VillanuevaRisky#N/A#N/A
Moreira has Glass Joe's chin but doesn't hesitate to brawl. His BJJ is strong if he managed to get the fight there. Villanueva is also 0-2 in the UFC, both losses by KO.
      
Pay-Downs
Fighter(s)PriceOpponentRiskOddsITD
Omari Akhmedov7500Tom BreeseSomewhat-Risky#N/A#N/A
This is an odd fight for Breese to take. Akhmedov is strong everywhere and only tends to lose after tiring in the later rounds. Breese will be in real trouble if the Russian ends up on top of him.
Mason Jones7400Mike DavisSomewhat-Risky#N/A#N/A
Coming out of Cage Warriors with a perfect record means more than most other promotions. Jones has made his way with heavy hands and early KOs. This is an excellent first test.
Victoria Leonardo7300Manon FiorotSomewhat-Risky#N/A#N/A
The UFC knows they have to take it slow with Leonardo, fresh off the contender series. Fiorot is a good striker but may be susceptible to Leonardo's spam grappling.
Roxanne Modafferi7100Viviane AraujoRisky#N/A#N/A
Roxi has shown us time and again that being a better fighter can be achieved mentally. The long odds upset her specialty.
Markus Perez7600Dalcha LungiambulaRisky#N/A#N/A
Perez main path to victory is tiring Dalcha and submitting him. He'll have to stay conscious to get it that far.
Gaetano Pirrello#N/A#N/ARisky#N/A#N/A
Pirrello is a striker facing a guy with a shaky chin. All you can ask for in a punchers chance.
Warlley Alves7200Mounir LazzezRisky#N/A#N/A
We have the punchers chance spot and the submission chance spot here. Alves would need an early takedown and to get straight to work on the sub. He's a veteran facing a green fighter, though.

 

Draftkings Core Plays
Top Tier
Su Mudaerji$9,300
Ricky Simon$9,400
Mid Tier
Tyson Nam$8,400
Dalcha Lungiambula$8,600
Value TierOmari Akhmedov$7,500
   
   
Fanduel Core Plays
Top Tier
Ricky Simon$21
Mounir Lazzez$20
Mid Tier
Neil Magny$18
Tyson Nam$17
Value TierRoxanne Modafferi$9


Favorite Bets: Magny -145, Nam -130, Akhmedov +140

Favorite Props: Villanueva/Moreira UNDER 2.5 rounds -270

Live Dogs: Akhmedov, Jones, Leonardo, Modefferi, Perez 

Stats & Picks: 

   
Michael ChiesavsNeil Magny
$7,900DFS Salary$8,300
Record: 17-4-0RecordRecord: 24-8-0
0 KO/TKO (0%)Knockouts7 KO/TKO (29%)
11 SUBMISSIONS (65%)Subs
3 SUBMISSIONS (13%
125Vegas Odds-145
4/10Lineup Pool6/10
   
Warlley AlvesvsMounir Lazzez
$7,200DFS Salary$9,000
Record: 14-4-0RecordRecord: 10-1-0
3 KO/TKO (23%)Knockouts8 KO/TKO (80%)
6 SUBMISSIONS (46%)Subs0 SUBMISSIONS (0%)
200Vegas Odds-240
3/10Lineup Pool7/10
   
Ike VillanuevavsVinicius Moreira
$8,200DFS Salary$8,000
Record: 16-11-0RecordRecord: 9-4-0
14 KO/TKO (82%)Knockouts1 KO/TKO (11%)
0 SUBMISSIONS (0%)Subs
8 SUBMISSIONS (89%
#N/AVegas Odds120
4/10Lineup Pool5/10
   
Roxanne ModafferivsViviane Araujo
$7,100DFS Salary$9,100
Record: 25-18-0RecordRecord: 9-2-0
4 KO/TKO (16%)Knockouts3 KO/TKO (33%)
5 SUBMISSIONS (20%)Subs
4 SUBMISSIONS (44%)
270Vegas Odds-330
4/10Lineup Pool4/10
   
Matt SchnellvsTyson Nam
$7,800DFS Salary$8,400
Record: 14-5-0RecordRecord: 20-11-1
2 KO/TKO (14%)Knockouts12 KO/TKO (60%)
8 SUBMISSIONS (57%)Subs1 SUBMISSIONS (5%)
110Vegas Odds-130
3/10Lineup Pool27/10
 0 
Lerone Murphyvs
Douglas Silva de Andrade
$9,200DFS Salary$7,000
Record: 9-0-1Record
Record: 26-3-0 (1 NC)
6 KO/TKO (67%)Knockouts19 KO/TKO (73%)
0 SUBMISSIONS (0%)Subs1 SUBMISSIONS (4%)
-310Vegas Odds255
6/10Lineup Pool2/10
   
Omari AkhmedovvsTom Breese
$7,500DFS Salary$8,700
Record: 20-5-1RecordRecord: 12-2-0
7 KO/TKO (35%)Knockouts5 KO/TKO (42%)
5 SUBMISSIONS (25%)Subs
6 SUBMISSIONS (50%)
140Vegas Odds-160
5/10Lineup Pool4/10
   
Ricky SimonvsGaetano Pirrello
$9,400DFS Salary$6,800
Record: 16-3-0RecordRecord: 15-5-1
5 KO/TKO (31%)Knockouts11 KO/TKO (73%)
2 SUBMISSIONS (13%)Subs
3 SUBMISSIONS (20%)
-450Vegas Odds360
7/10Lineup Pool2/10
   
Su MudaerjivsZarrukh Adashev
$9,300DFS Salary$6,900
Record: 13-4-0RecordRecord: 3-2-0
11 KO/TKO (85%)Knockouts2 KO/TKO (67%)
1 SUBMISSIONS (8%)Subs0 SUBMISSIONS (0%)
-470Vegas Odds375
7/10Lineup Pool2/10
   
Dalcha LungiambulavsMarkus Perez
$8,600DFS Salary$7,600
Record: 10-2-0RecordRecord: 12-4-0
5 KO/TKO (50%)Knockouts3 KO/TKO (25%)
1 SUBMISSIONS (10%)Subs
6 SUBMISSIONS (50%)
-135Vegas Odds115
6/10Lineup Pool4/10
   
Francisco FigueiredovsJerome Rivera
$8,500DFS Salary$7,700
Record: 11-3-1 (1 NC)RecordRecord: 10-3-0
3 KO/TKO (27%)Knockouts0 KO/TKO (0%)
7 SUBMISSIONS (64%)Subs
7 SUBMISSIONS (70%)
#N/AVegas Odds130
5/10Lineup Pool3/10
   
Mike DavisvsMason Jones
$8,800DFS Salary$7,400
Record: 8-2-0RecordRecord: 10-0-0
7 KO/TKO (88%)Knockouts4 KO/TKO (40%)
1 SUBMISSIONS (13%)Subs
3 SUBMISSIONS (30%)
-160Vegas Odds140
6/10Lineup Pool4/10
   
Umar NurmagomedovvsSergey Morozov
$9,500DFS Salary#N/A
Record: 12-0-0RecordRecord: 16-3-0
1 KO/TKO (8%)Knockouts8 KO/TKO (50%)
5 SUBMISSIONS (42%)Subs
3 SUBMISSIONS (19%)
-525Vegas Odds415
7/10Lineup Pool2/10