The UFC is in the Fight Night product glut but there are a few bangers on this card. Especially the main event between Glover Teixeira and Thiago Santos. We've been lucky to keep eleven fights on the card so fingers crossed they all go off despite being in Vegas. Update: Tonight's fight between Ian Heinisch and Brendan Allen has been cancelled after Heinisch tested positive for COVID-19

 

Main Event
Fighter(s)PriceOpponentRiskOddsITD
This fight hinges largely on where Santos is in his recovery from major knee surgery following his title bid that fell just short. He's combined devestating power with continually refined striking technique. Teixeira is always game and very tough. Santos power isn't the kind you absorb and live to tell the tale, however. If Glover can survive on the feet long enough to secure a takedown that is his best path. It's a modest cash stack.
      
Expensive
Fighter(s)PriceOpponentRiskOddsITD
Alexandr Romanov9000Marcos Rogerio de LimaSafe#N/A#N/A
 
Tanner Boser8900Andrei ArlovskiSomewhat-Safe#N/A#N/A
The big question here is whether Boser can continue his fight ending ways. That wasn't something we expected from his regional fights. Arlovski is also one of the best HW point fighters. Scoring big could be a challenge. That said, Arlovski has gotten dusted by the legit fighters he's faced recently.
Giga Chikadze9300Jamey SimmonsSomewhat-Safe#N/A#N/A
An odd bit of matchmaking to place the surging Chikadze against a newcomer. Maybe the UFC is throwing him a bone for willing to be active. There's some risk for Giga against an unorthodox fighter with some power. Apparently not enough to make the line stay respectable, however. Giga could get his first UFC finish. He'll need it at 9300.
Raoni Barcelos9100Khalid TahaModerate#N/A#N/A
 
      
Mid-Range
Fighter(s)PriceOpponentRiskOddsITD
Xiaonan Yan8300Claudia GadelhaModerate#N/A#N/A
 
Brendan Allen8400Ian HeinischSomewhat-Risky#N/A#N/A
I'll say this for Allen, he does not have boring fights. He presses the action and looks for finishes. That makes him dangerous but is also a liability. If he can't keep Heinisch on the mat his striking holes will show.
Darren Elkins8700Eduardo GaragorriSomewhat-Risky#N/A#N/A
Elkins time as a fighter is coming to an end. At least at this level. He absorbs far too much damage while trying to impose less than effective wrestling. At some point the wheels are going to fall completely off. That could be this fight. If not, his grappling probably carries him to a decision.
Trevin Giles8000Bevon LewisSomewhat-Risky#N/A#N/A
This fight is priced as a pick em because neither fighter is very consistent. Lewis tends to point-fight so I'm really only interested in Giles, who's capable of earning a finish.
Gustavo Lopez8000Bevon LewisRisky#N/A#N/A
 
Anthony Birchak8200Trevin GilesRisky#N/A#N/A
Birchak gets another go in the UFC. He tends to rely on his wrestling. We'll see if he's improved during his time on the regionals.
      
Pay-Downs
Fighter(s)PriceOpponentRiskOddsITD
Ian Heinisch7800Brendan AllenSomewhat-Risky#N/A#N/A
Outside of a few pretty high level grapplers Heinisch has been a tough takedown. If he keeps it standing he has an edge over the dangerous but leaky striking of Allen.
Claudia Gadelha7900Xiaonan YanSomewhat-Risky#N/A#N/A
The key to Gadelha winning is clearly her wrestling. It's very good but drains her gas tank. She's hesitated to grapple because of that.
Eduardo Garagorri7500Darren ElkinsSomewhat-Risky#N/A#N/A
 
Khalid Taha7100Raoni BarcelosRisky#N/A#N/A
Taha has one elite skill and that's his punching power. Raoni will get into exchanges so he's not drawing dead to land a big punch.
Ramiz Brahimaj7700Max GriffinRisky#N/A#N/A
 
Marcos Rogerio de Lima7200Alexandr RomanovRisky#N/A#N/A
de Lima has a punchers chance for half a round. It is a heavyweight fight.
Jamey Simmons6900Giga ChikadzeRisky#N/A#N/A
Simmons is a bit of a wildcard. That doesn't worry me as much against someone with Giga's striking defense.

 

Example Lineups

 

DK Example GPPPivotDK Example GPP Pivot
FighterOppSalary FighterOppSalary
RomanovRogerio de Lima$9,000to   
ElkinsGaragorri$8,700toGaragorriElkins$7,500
GilesLewis$8,000to   
TeixeiraSantos$7,400toSantosTeixeira$8,800
LopezBirchak$8,000to   
BrahimajM. Griffin$7,700toTahaBarcelos$7,100
 Total Salary$48,800  Pivot Salary$47,000
       
DK Example CashPivotDK Example Cash Pivot
FighterOppSalary FighterOppSalary
ChikadzeSimmons$9,300    
SantosTeixeira$8,800    
TeixeiraSantos$7,400to   
BoserArlovski$8,900 BarcelosTaha$9,100
YanGadelha$8,300to   
TahaBarcelos$7,100 GadelhaYan$7,900
 Total Salary$49,800  Pivot Salary$48,600

 


Vegas Plays

Favorite Bets: Heinisch -105, Yan Xionan -155

Favorite Props: Brahimaj ITD +295

Long Shot: Garagorri ITD +375

Live Dogs: Heinisch, Brahimaj, Teixeira, Garagorri, Taha

Stats & Picks: 

 

   
Thiago SantosvsGlover Teixeira
$8,800DFS Salary$7,400
Record: 21-7-0RecordRecord: 31-7-0
15 KO/TKO (71%)Knockouts18 KO/TKO (58%)
1 SUBMISSIONS (5%)Subs
8 SUBMISSIONS (26%)
-225Vegas Odds+205
6/10Lineup Pool5/10
   
Andrei ArlovskivsTanner Boser
$7,300DFS Salary$8,900
Record: 29-19-0 (2 NC)RecordRecord: 19-6-1
17 KO/TKO (59%)Knockouts10 KO/TKO (53%)
3 SUBMISSIONS (10%)Subs
2 SUBMISSIONS (11%)
+275Vegas Odds-305
2/10Lineup Pool7/10
   
Raoni BarcelosvsKhalid Taha
$9,100DFS Salary$7,100
Record: 15-1-0Record
Record: 13-2-0 (1 NC)
6 KO/TKO (55%)Knockouts4 KO/TKO (57%)
1 SUBMISSIONS (9%)Subs
1 SUBMISSIONS (14%)
-355Vegas Odds+320
5/10Lineup Pool4/10
   
Ian HeinischvsBrendan Allen
$7,800DFS Salary$8,400
Record: 14-3-0RecordRecord: 15-3-0
8 KO/TKO (53%)Knockouts9 KO/TKO (69%)
2 SUBMISSIONS (13%)Subs
2 SUBMISSIONS (15%)
+100Vegas Odds-110
5/10Lineup Pool4/10
   
Claudia GadelhavsYan Xiaonan
$7,900DFS Salary#N/A
Record: 18-4-0Record
Record: 12-1-0 (1 NC)
5 KO/TKO (36%)Knockouts5 KO/TKO (33%)
2 SUBMISSIONS (14%)Subs
8 SUBMISSIONS (53%)
+145Vegas Odds-155
4/10Lineup Pool5/10
   
Trevin GilesvsBevon Lewis
$8,000DFS Salary$8,200
Record: 12-2-0RecordRecord: 7-2-0
2 KO/TKO (11%)Knockouts5 KO/TKO (42%)
7 SUBMISSIONS (39%)Subs0 SUBMISSIONS (0%)
+105Vegas Odds-115
4/10Lineup Pool4/10
   
Giga ChikadzevsJamey Simmons
$9,300DFS Salary$6,900
Record: 11-2-0RecordRecord: 7-2-0
2 KO/TKO (11%)Knockouts5 KO/TKO (42%)
7 SUBMISSIONS (39%)Subs0 SUBMISSIONS (0%)
-750Vegas Odds+600
7/10Lineup Pool1/10
   
Alexandr RomanovvsMarcos Rogerio de Lima
$9,000DFS Salary$7,200
Record: 12-0-0RecordRecord: 17-7-1
0 KO/TKO (0%)Knockouts7 KO/TKO (47%)
8 SUBMISSIONS (100%)Subs
2 SUBMISSIONS (13%)
-450Vegas Odds#N/A
8/10Lineup Pool2/10
   
Darren ElkinsvsEduardo Garagorri
$8,700DFS Salary$7,500
Record: 25-9-0RecordRecord: 13-1-0
8 KO/TKO (33%)Knockouts4 KO/TKO (31%)
4 SUBMISSIONS (17%)Subs
6 SUBMISSIONS (46%)
-245Vegas Odds+205
5/10Lineup Pool3/10
   
Max GriffinvsRamiz Brahimaj
$8,600DFS Salary$7,700
Record: 15-8-0RecordRecord: 8-2-0
12 KO/TKO (71%)Knockouts5 KO/TKO (42%)
3 SUBMISSIONS (18%)Subs
7 SUBMISSIONS (58%)
-140Vegas Odds+120
4/10Lineup Pool5/10
   
Gustavo LopezvsAnthony Birchak
$8,000DFS Salary$8,200
Record: 11-5-0RecordRecord: 16-6-0
5 KO/TKO (45%)Knockouts5 KO/TKO (31%)
5 SUBMISSIONS (45%)Subs
8 SUBMISSIONS (50%)
-120Vegas Odds+100
4/10Lineup Pool4/10