The UFC is in the Fight Night product glut but there are a few bangers on this card. Especially the main event between Glover Teixeira and Thiago Santos. We've been lucky to keep eleven fights on the card so fingers crossed they all go off despite being in Vegas. Update: Tonight's fight between Ian Heinisch and Brendan Allen has been cancelled after Heinisch tested positive for COVID-19
Main Event |
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
This fight hinges largely on where Santos is in his recovery from major knee surgery following his title bid that fell just short. He's combined devestating power with continually refined striking technique. Teixeira is always game and very tough. Santos power isn't the kind you absorb and live to tell the tale, however. If Glover can survive on the feet long enough to secure a takedown that is his best path. It's a modest cash stack. |
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Expensive |
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
Alexandr Romanov | 9000 | Marcos Rogerio de Lima | Safe | #N/A | #N/A |
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Tanner Boser | 8900 | Andrei Arlovski | Somewhat-Safe | #N/A | #N/A |
The big question here is whether Boser can continue his fight ending ways. That wasn't something we expected from his regional fights. Arlovski is also one of the best HW point fighters. Scoring big could be a challenge. That said, Arlovski has gotten dusted by the legit fighters he's faced recently. |
Giga Chikadze | 9300 | Jamey Simmons | Somewhat-Safe | #N/A | #N/A |
An odd bit of matchmaking to place the surging Chikadze against a newcomer. Maybe the UFC is throwing him a bone for willing to be active. There's some risk for Giga against an unorthodox fighter with some power. Apparently not enough to make the line stay respectable, however. Giga could get his first UFC finish. He'll need it at 9300. |
Raoni Barcelos | 9100 | Khalid Taha | Moderate | #N/A | #N/A |
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Mid-Range |
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
Xiaonan Yan | 8300 | Claudia Gadelha | Moderate | #N/A | #N/A |
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Brendan Allen | 8400 | Ian Heinisch | Somewhat-Risky | #N/A | #N/A |
I'll say this for Allen, he does not have boring fights. He presses the action and looks for finishes. That makes him dangerous but is also a liability. If he can't keep Heinisch on the mat his striking holes will show. |
Darren Elkins | 8700 | Eduardo Garagorri | Somewhat-Risky | #N/A | #N/A |
Elkins time as a fighter is coming to an end. At least at this level. He absorbs far too much damage while trying to impose less than effective wrestling. At some point the wheels are going to fall completely off. That could be this fight. If not, his grappling probably carries him to a decision. |
Trevin Giles | 8000 | Bevon Lewis | Somewhat-Risky | #N/A | #N/A |
This fight is priced as a pick em because neither fighter is very consistent. Lewis tends to point-fight so I'm really only interested in Giles, who's capable of earning a finish. |
Gustavo Lopez | 8000 | Bevon Lewis | Risky | #N/A | #N/A |
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Anthony Birchak | 8200 | Trevin Giles | Risky | #N/A | #N/A |
Birchak gets another go in the UFC. He tends to rely on his wrestling. We'll see if he's improved during his time on the regionals. |
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Pay-Downs |
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
Ian Heinisch | 7800 | Brendan Allen | Somewhat-Risky | #N/A | #N/A |
Outside of a few pretty high level grapplers Heinisch has been a tough takedown. If he keeps it standing he has an edge over the dangerous but leaky striking of Allen. |
Claudia Gadelha | 7900 | Xiaonan Yan | Somewhat-Risky | #N/A | #N/A |
The key to Gadelha winning is clearly her wrestling. It's very good but drains her gas tank. She's hesitated to grapple because of that. |
Eduardo Garagorri | 7500 | Darren Elkins | Somewhat-Risky | #N/A | #N/A |
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Khalid Taha | 7100 | Raoni Barcelos | Risky | #N/A | #N/A |
Taha has one elite skill and that's his punching power. Raoni will get into exchanges so he's not drawing dead to land a big punch. |
Ramiz Brahimaj | 7700 | Max Griffin | Risky | #N/A | #N/A |
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Marcos Rogerio de Lima | 7200 | Alexandr Romanov | Risky | #N/A | #N/A |
de Lima has a punchers chance for half a round. It is a heavyweight fight. |
Jamey Simmons | 6900 | Giga Chikadze | Risky | #N/A | #N/A |
Simmons is a bit of a wildcard. That doesn't worry me as much against someone with Giga's striking defense. |
Example Lineups
DK Example GPP | Pivot | DK Example GPP Pivot |
Fighter | Opp | Salary | | Fighter | Opp | Salary |
Romanov | Rogerio de Lima | $9,000 | to | | | |
Elkins | Garagorri | $8,700 | to | Garagorri | Elkins | $7,500 |
Giles | Lewis | $8,000 | to | | | |
Teixeira | Santos | $7,400 | to | Santos | Teixeira | $8,800 |
Lopez | Birchak | $8,000 | to | | | |
Brahimaj | M. Griffin | $7,700 | to | Taha | Barcelos | $7,100 |
| Total Salary | $48,800 | | | Pivot Salary | $47,000 |
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DK Example Cash | Pivot | DK Example Cash Pivot |
Fighter | Opp | Salary | | Fighter | Opp | Salary |
Chikadze | Simmons | $9,300 | | | | |
Santos | Teixeira | $8,800 | | | | |
Teixeira | Santos | $7,400 | to | | | |
Boser | Arlovski | $8,900 | | Barcelos | Taha | $9,100 |
Yan | Gadelha | $8,300 | to | | | |
Taha | Barcelos | $7,100 | | Gadelha | Yan | $7,900 |
| Total Salary | $49,800 | | | Pivot Salary | $48,600 |
Vegas Plays
Favorite Bets: Heinisch -105, Yan Xionan -155
Favorite Props: Brahimaj ITD +295
Long Shot: Garagorri ITD +375
Live Dogs: Heinisch, Brahimaj, Teixeira, Garagorri, Taha
Stats & Picks:
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Thiago Santos | vs | Glover Teixeira |
$8,800 | DFS Salary | $7,400 |
Record: 21-7-0 | Record | Record: 31-7-0 |
15 KO/TKO (71%) | Knockouts | 18 KO/TKO (58%) |
1 SUBMISSIONS (5%) | Subs | |
-225 | Vegas Odds | +205 |
6/10 | Lineup Pool | 5/10 |
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Andrei Arlovski | vs | Tanner Boser |
$7,300 | DFS Salary | $8,900 |
Record: 29-19-0 (2 NC) | Record | Record: 19-6-1 |
17 KO/TKO (59%) | Knockouts | 10 KO/TKO (53%) |
3 SUBMISSIONS (10%) | Subs | |
+275 | Vegas Odds | -305 |
2/10 | Lineup Pool | 7/10 |
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Raoni Barcelos | vs | Khalid Taha |
$9,100 | DFS Salary | $7,100 |
Record: 15-1-0 | Record | |
6 KO/TKO (55%) | Knockouts | 4 KO/TKO (57%) |
1 SUBMISSIONS (9%) | Subs | |
-355 | Vegas Odds | +320 |
5/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
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Ian Heinisch | vs | Brendan Allen |
$7,800 | DFS Salary | $8,400 |
Record: 14-3-0 | Record | Record: 15-3-0 |
8 KO/TKO (53%) | Knockouts | 9 KO/TKO (69%) |
2 SUBMISSIONS (13%) | Subs | |
+100 | Vegas Odds | -110 |
5/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
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Claudia Gadelha | vs | Yan Xiaonan |
$7,900 | DFS Salary | #N/A |
Record: 18-4-0 | Record | |
5 KO/TKO (36%) | Knockouts | 5 KO/TKO (33%) |
2 SUBMISSIONS (14%) | Subs | |
+145 | Vegas Odds | -155 |
4/10 | Lineup Pool | 5/10 |
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Trevin Giles | vs | Bevon Lewis |
$8,000 | DFS Salary | $8,200 |
Record: 12-2-0 | Record | Record: 7-2-0 |
2 KO/TKO (11%) | Knockouts | 5 KO/TKO (42%) |
7 SUBMISSIONS (39%) | Subs | 0 SUBMISSIONS (0%) |
+105 | Vegas Odds | -115 |
4/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
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Giga Chikadze | vs | Jamey Simmons |
$9,300 | DFS Salary | $6,900 |
Record: 11-2-0 | Record | Record: 7-2-0 |
2 KO/TKO (11%) | Knockouts | 5 KO/TKO (42%) |
7 SUBMISSIONS (39%) | Subs | 0 SUBMISSIONS (0%) |
-750 | Vegas Odds | +600 |
7/10 | Lineup Pool | 1/10 |
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Alexandr Romanov | vs | Marcos Rogerio de Lima |
$9,000 | DFS Salary | $7,200 |
Record: 12-0-0 | Record | Record: 17-7-1 |
0 KO/TKO (0%) | Knockouts | 7 KO/TKO (47%) |
8 SUBMISSIONS (100%) | Subs | |
-450 | Vegas Odds | #N/A |
8/10 | Lineup Pool | 2/10 |
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Darren Elkins | vs | Eduardo Garagorri |
$8,700 | DFS Salary | $7,500 |
Record: 25-9-0 | Record | Record: 13-1-0 |
8 KO/TKO (33%) | Knockouts | 4 KO/TKO (31%) |
4 SUBMISSIONS (17%) | Subs | |
-245 | Vegas Odds | +205 |
5/10 | Lineup Pool | 3/10 |
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Max Griffin | vs | Ramiz Brahimaj |
$8,600 | DFS Salary | $7,700 |
Record: 15-8-0 | Record | Record: 8-2-0 |
12 KO/TKO (71%) | Knockouts | 5 KO/TKO (42%) |
3 SUBMISSIONS (18%) | Subs | |
-140 | Vegas Odds | +120 |
4/10 | Lineup Pool | 5/10 |
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Gustavo Lopez | vs | Anthony Birchak |
$8,000 | DFS Salary | $8,200 |
Record: 11-5-0 | Record | Record: 16-6-0 |
5 KO/TKO (45%) | Knockouts | 5 KO/TKO (31%) |
5 SUBMISSIONS (45%) | Subs | |
-120 | Vegas Odds | +100 |
4/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |