The good times on Yas Island roll on with yet another solid fight card supplemented by the UFC’s excellent international talent pool. This is a great spot to build up some bankroll for the big contests we’ll see next week for UFC 254.
| Main Event | |||||
| Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Brian Ortega vs Chan Sung Jung | 7600/8600 | - | Stackability: Moderate | +175/ -190 | +250/+100 |
| This is a fun fight with titile implications but in my eyes it's all Korean Zombie. Ortega has worked some magic agasint lessor opponents and is always dangerous. I just don't see his striking anywhere near Jung's level. Especially off of a two year layoff. Ortega has shown some crazy durability so there's a chance he hangs in and makes a cash stack a win. I worry that Zombie has a different kind of power than he's faced. | |||||
| Expensive | |||||
| Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Jimmy Crute | 9000 | Modestas Bukauskas | Safe | -310 | -160 |
| Crute is a savage. What he lacks in refinement he makes up for with brute stregth and a mean streak. That's a bad matchup for Bukaukas, who's toughness some people question. Crute doesn't save much gas for later rounds as he usually doesn't need it. That's the risk with him. | |||||
| Maxim Grishin | 9100 | Gadzhimurad Antigulov | Somewhat-Safe | -345 | -165 |
| It tells you how compromised Antigulov is that Grishin is this big of a favorite after his dismall debut. Rumors of Antigulov's bum leg match up with his fight strategy of immidiate takedown attempts at any cost. It worked in his first two UFC wins but has led to an early stoppage against him the last three fights. Grishin should have enough takedown defense at his proper weightclass to stuff the first attempt and unload on Antigulov. | |||||
| Mateusz Gamrot | 8900 | Guram Kutateladze | Somewhat-Safe | -320 | +340 |
| Gamrot is better grappler than striker but could get into danger if he's out to prove something on the feet in this one. If he takes Guram down his ground and pound should get the job done. If he stands and trades it's a wide-open fight. | |||||
| Said Nurmagomedov | 9200 | Mark Striegl | Moderate | -400 | +275 |
| The price and line are much too biased toward Said's last name here. He's a solid fighter with flashy kicks but not a 4 to 1 favorite. Striegl has fought weak competition but has shown wreslting and striking in those wins. To hit value, Said will need a big KO. He's capable but it's not the likeliest scenario. | |||||
| Mid-Range | |||||
| Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| James Krause | 8500 | Claudio Silva | Moderate | -135 | +275 |
| Krause has a reputation for out-matching black belts. He's a savvy striker and has his own BJJ credentials. He'll also typically fight with plus pace. Barring an early suprise submission this fight is his to lose. | |||||
| Junyong Park | 8800 | John Phillips | Somewhat-Risky | -275 | +105 |
| The path to beat Phillips is the most obvious in all MMA. Take him down and submit him and he won't bother to defend much. Park isn't a strong wrestler but he has shown the ability. | |||||
| Jessica Andrade | 8400 | Katlyn Chookagian | Somewhat-Risky | -145 | +260 |
| Andrade is coming up a weight to 125 but she has fought at 135 before the division existed. Chook's length and stick and move style make it a good test. I still think her power wrestling plays well if she goes to it early enough. Look out ofr the big small of the taller woman. | |||||
| Gillian Robertson | 8700 | Poliana Botelho | Somewhat-Risky | -210 | -125 |
| This is possibily the toughest fight to cap. Robertson is the better mixed-martial-artist. She's the smaller woman and has quit in spots before. We saw Botelho submitted easily by Cynthia Cavillo's slick BJJ. It's in the cards but I'm not in love with the price. | |||||
| Jamie Mullarkey | 8300 | Fares Ziam | Somewhat-Risky | -145 | +300 |
| Mullarkey is the favorite because of his experience and the chance that he wrestles. He had a good showing in a loss to Brad Ridell, a more decorated kickboxer than Ziam. He'll need to stick to the wrestling to stay saf against the rangy striker. | |||||
| Jonathan Martinez | 8000 | Thomas Almeida | Risky | +115 | +240 |
| We get a good kicker vs boxer match up in this one. Martinez is the kicker and man what kicks. He pieced up Frankie Saenz last fight. We've seen growth from him every fight and I expect that to continue this time out, as well. | |||||
| Thomas Almeida | 8200 | Jonathan Martinez | Risky | -135 | +160 |
| Almeida has taken two years off to clean up some medical issues and let his brain heal after a brutal KO from Rob Font. His forward pressing style will not play with a bad chin. We'll find out a lot here. If it holds up his boxing makes him dangerous. | |||||
| Pay-Downs | |||||
| Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Mark Striegl | 7000 | Said Nurmagomedov | Somewhat-Risky | +325 | +515 |
| Striegl has an uphill battle to win this decision but he's the best value on the card. He probably sees the scorecards and could win two rounds on grappling. | |||||
| Modestas Bukauskas | 7200 | Jimmy Crute | Somewhat-Risky | +255 | +355 |
| If Bukauskas can weather Crute's first round storm his length and conditioning will turn things in his favor. | |||||
| Guram Kutateladze | 7300 | Mateusz Gamrot | Somewhat-Risky | +260 | +405 |
| Should Gamrot get pulled into a fire fight Kutateladze doesn't mess around. It's all big power shots to the dome. | |||||
| Fares Ziam | 7900 | Jamie Mullarkey | Risky | +135 | +290 |
| I'm one of the only people around interested in Ziam it seems. He's a solid kickboxer and showed decent takedown defense in his debut loss to Don Madge. Mullarkey tends to get into brawls. That's where Ziam could shine if he stays off the mat. | |||||
| Poliana Botelho | 7500 | Gillian Robertson | Risky | +175 | +465 |
| Poliana has two things going for her: size and a will to fight. She's a raw mixed-martial-artist but shows an aggression that plays well in women's mma. If she uses that size and stregth to stiffle Robertson's grappling she could tee off. We've seen Robertson become a fish out of water before if the wrestling isn't there. | |||||
| John Phillips | 7400 | Junyong Park | Risky | +250 | +310 |
| Phillips is a long shot. He has less than zero takedown defense. He does hit harder than anyone around, though. If Park decides to test his striking it only takes one shot. Phillips looked to be in better shape this week than previous fights. | |||||
| Claudio Silva | 7700 | James Krause | Risky | +125 | +230 |
| Silva is a BJJ master. If he gets a hold of anyone they're in trouble. This is a puncher's chance, submission version. | |||||
Cash Plays:
(Sample lineup, these aren’t intended as examples of an optimal)
| DK Example Cash | Pivot | DK Example Cash Pivot | ||||
| Fighter | Opp | Salary | Fighter | Opp | Salary | |
| Grishin | Antigulov | $9,100 | ||||
| Park | Phillips | $8,800 | ||||
| Jung | Ortega | $8,600 | ||||
| Krause | Silva | $8,500 | to | Ortega | Jung | $7,600 |
| Martinez | Almeida | $8,000 | ||||
| Striegl | Nurmagomedov | $7,000 | to | Botelho | Robertson | $7,500 |
| Total Salary | $50,000 | Pivot Salary | $50,000 | |||
GPP Plays:
(Sample lineup, these aren’t intended as examples of an optimal)
| DK Example GPP | Pivot | DK Example GPP Pivot | ||||
| Fighter | Opp | Salary | Fighter | Opp | Salary | |
| Crute | Bukauskas | $9,000 | to | Gamrot | Kutateladze | $8,900 |
| Park | Phillips | $8,800 | to | Robertson | Botelho | $8,700 |
| Jung | Ortega | $8,600 | to | Ortega | Jung | $7,600 |
| Krause | Silva | $8,500 | to | Mullarkey | Ziam | $8,300 |
| Martinez | Almeida | $8,000 | to | Kutateladze | Gamrot | $7,300 |
| Striegl | Nurmagomedov | $7,000 | to | Bukauskas | Crute | $7,200 |
| Total Salary | $49,900 | Pivot Salary | $50,000 | |||
Vegas Plays:
Favorite Bets: Jung -190, Krause -140, Martinez +115
Favorite Props: Grishin/Antigulov UNDER 1.5 rounds -140, Andrade ITD +260
Long Shot: Bohtelo ITD +465
Live Dogs: Martinez, Botelho, Ortega, Striegl, Bukauskas, Kutateledze, Ziam, Phillips
Stats & Picks:
| Brian Ortega | vs | Chan Sung Jung |
| $7,600 | DFS Salary | $8,600 |
| Record: 14-1-0 (1 NC) | Record | Record: 16-5-0 |
| 3 KO/TKO (21%) | Knockouts | 6 KO/TKO (38%) |
| 7 SUBMISSIONS (50%) | Subs | 8 SUBMISSIONS (50%) |
| +175 | Vegas Odds | -190 |
| 4/10 | Lineup Pool | 7/10 |
| Katlyn Chookagian | vs | Jessica Andrade |
| $7,800 | DFS Salary | $8,400 |
| Record: 14-3-0 | Record | Record: 20-8-0 |
| 2 KO/TKO (14%) | Knockouts | 7 KO/TKO (35%) |
| 1 SUBMISSIONS (7%) | Subs | 7 SUBMISSIONS (35%) |
| +135 | Vegas Odds | -145 |
| 3/10 | Lineup Pool | 6/10 |
| Jimmy Crute | vs | Modestas Bukauskas |
| $9,000 | DFS Salary | $7,200 |
| Record: 11-1-0 | Record | Record: 11-2-0 |
| 4 KO/TKO (36%) | Knockouts | 8 KO/TKO (73%) |
| 4 SUBMISSIONS (36%) | Subs | 2 SUBMISSIONS (18%) |
| -310 | Vegas Odds | +255 |
| 6/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
| Claudio Silva | vs | James Krause |
| $7,700 | DFS Salary | $8,500 |
| Record: 14-1-0 | Record | Record: 27-9-0 |
| 2 KO/TKO (14%) | Knockouts | 8 KO/TKO (30%) |
| 9 SUBMISSIONS (64%) | Subs | 14 SUBMISSIONS (52%) |
| +125 | Vegas Odds | -135 |
| 3/10 | Lineup Pool | 6/10 |
| Thomas Almeida | vs | Jonathan Martinez |
| $8,200 | DFS Salary | $8,000 |
| Record: 22-3-0 | Record | Record: 12-3-0 |
| 17 KO/TKO (81%) | Knockouts | 7 KO/TKO (58%) |
| 3 SUBMISSIONS (14%) | Subs | 2 SUBMISSIONS (17%) |
| -135 | Vegas Odds | +115 |
| 3/10 | Lineup Pool | 6/10 |
| Mateusz Gamrot | vs | Guram Kutateladze |
| $8,900 | DFS Salary | $7,300 |
| Record: 17-0-0 (1 NC) | Record | Record: 11-2-0 |
| 5 KO/TKO (29%) | Knockouts | 7 KO/TKO (64%) |
| 4 SUBMISSIONS (24%) | Subs | 1 SUBMISSIONS (9%) |
| -320 | Vegas Odds | +260 |
| 5/10 | Lineup Pool | 5/10 |
| Gillian Robertson | vs | Poliana Botelho |
| $8,700 | DFS Salary | $7,500 |
| Record: 8-4-0 | Record | Record: 8-2-0 |
| 1 KO/TKO (13%) | Knockouts | 6 KO/TKO (75%) |
| 6 SUBMISSIONS (75%) | Subs | 0 SUBMISSIONS (0%) |
| -210 | Vegas Odds | +175 |
| 5/10 | Lineup Pool | 5/10 |
| Junyong Park | vs | John Phillips |
| $8,800 | DFS Salary | $7,400 |
| Record: 11-4-0 | Record | Record: 22-10-0 (1 NC) |
| 5 KO/TKO (45%) | Knockouts | 20 KO/TKO (91%) |
| 3 SUBMISSIONS (27%) | Subs | 2 SUBMISSIONS (9%) |
| -275 | Vegas Odds | +250 |
| 7/10 | Lineup Pool | 3/10 |
| Jamie Mullarkey | vs | Fares Ziam |
| $8,300 | DFS Salary | $7,900 |
| Record: 12-3-0 | Record | Record: 10-3-0 |
| 8 KO/TKO (67%) | Knockouts | 5 KO/TKO (50%) |
| 3 SUBMISSIONS (25%) | Subs | 4 SUBMISSIONS (40%) |
| -145 | Vegas Odds | +135 |
| 5/10 | Lineup Pool | 5/10 |
| Gadzhimurad Antigulov | vs | Maxim Grishin |
| $7,100 | DFS Salary | $9,100 |
| Record: 20-7-0 | Record | Record: 30-8-2 |
| 4 KO/TKO (20%) | Knockouts | 15 KO/TKO (50%) |
| 15 SUBMISSIONS (75%) | Subs | 6 SUBMISSIONS (20%) |
| +285 | Vegas Odds | -345 |
| 3/10 | Lineup Pool | 7/10 |
| Said Nurmagomedov | vs | Mark Striegl |
| $9,200 | DFS Salary | $7,000 |
| Record: 13-2-0 | Record | Record: 18-2-0 (1 NC) |
| 3 KO/TKO (23%) | Knockouts | |
| 3 SUBMISSIONS (23%) | Subs | |
| -400 | Vegas Odds | +325 |
| 4/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |