For the final Vegas event before heading back to Abu Dhabi the UFC is emptying the clip with fourteen fights. That’s double what we got just two events ago. There’s a few chalk plays like Chimaev and Covington but I wouldn’t focus on ownership very much with how spread out I expect it to be.
| Main Event | |||||
| Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Colby Covington vs Tyron Woodley | 9300/6900 | - | Stackability: Safe | -310/ +280 | +315/+430 |
| The last of the title contenders Woodley dodged finally gets his shot. T-Wood has lost ten straight rounds against the other division elites. He would need to land that chopping overhand that has been behind most of his UFC success. Covington is a very slight cut below Usman and Burns for me but will try to use the same pressure style. There will be openings for Woodley if he chooses to engage. If he doesn't, expect him to lose five more straight rounds in ugly fashion. I'd say it's stackable for cash saving due to savings and lesser odds it's ending ITD. | |||||
| Expensive | |||||
| Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Khamzat Chimaev | 9400 | Gerald Meerschaert | Safe | -370 | -200 |
| We get another piece of critical info on how high Chimaev's ceiling is here. GM3 is a solid fighter with some tricks. Should Chiimaev walk through him the division is fully on notice. I do worry that Meerschaert can make him work enough that it's not the easy 100+ DK score we've become accustomed to. | |||||
| Kevin Holland | 9100 | Darren Stewart | Somewhat-Safe | -250 | +210 |
| Holland has found another gear lately. He's always had talent but looks lethal in there right now. Stewart is a game opponent with heavy hands of his own. I just don't see Stewart being able to lead much of the dance. | |||||
| TJ Laramie | 9200 | Darrick Minner | Somewhat-Safe | -305 | -125 |
| Laramie is a strong wrestler and it showed on his Contender Series win in August. Minner only knows how to fight for first round finishes. He's generally looking for a submission which should be a challenge against Laramie. Wacth out for the early GnP stoppage. | |||||
| Mirsad Bektic | 9500 | #N/A | Somewhat-Safe | #N/A | #N/A |
| In a sea of qualtiy pay-ups, Nektic gets lost. He hasn't had the results we want of late but it wasn't that long ago that Bektic was a DK money train. He's a very strong wrestler and backs that up with quality boxing and plus power. He doesn't eat a great shot, though. That shouldn't be a big issue here against late replacement Damon Jackson. | |||||
| Mayra Bueno Silva | 9000 | Mara Romero Borella | Moderate | -250 | +145 |
| Silva should look better in her second fight back from time off. Borella is a very beatable opponent with a bit of a chin issue. I doubt Silva is highly owned but warrants a look. | |||||
| Mid-Range | |||||
| Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Niko Price | 8500 | Donald Cerrone | Moderate | -150 | +110 |
| All The Hybrid does is get in the cage and go to war. All of his fight's are fun. He has some liabilities defensively that give me some pause. It's a great price on a guy that could win by early stoppage, though. Cowboy is trading on name value alone at this point. | |||||
| Tyson Nam | 8600 | Jerome Rivera | Moderate | -170 | +125 |
| We saw what Nam did with a late-replacement in his last fight. I don't think it happens as fast but a KO is certainly in the cards for the heavy-handed veteran. | |||||
| Johnny Walker | 8300 | Ryan Spann | Somewhat-Risky | -120 | +110 |
| If you like playing KO or bust dudes Walker is the poster boy and only $8300. He's got very little striking defense and a bum chin if it doesn't happen fast. | |||||
| Mackenzie Dern | 8700 | Randa Markos | Somewhat-Risky | -160 | +125 |
| Dern's world-class BJJ gives her an out in every fight. She lacks the wrestling to always impliment it, however. Markos is a solid wrestler and an OK boxer. I don't see Dern hitting value without finding a flash submission. | |||||
| Andre Ewell | 8800 | Irwin Rivera | Risky | -220 | +375 |
| Ewell is the much longer man. Rivera hand no answer for that in his fight with Giga Chikadze. At $8800 Ewell will need a very high pace with little wrestling expected. | |||||
| Journey Newson | 8400 | Randy Costa | Risky | -125 | +110 |
| Newson's best weapon was on display in his KO of Domingo Pilarte: his power. Costa spends most of the fight plowing forward so Newson will have his opportunity for hard counters. | |||||
| Jordan Espinosa | 8000 | David Dvorak | Risky | -105 | +485 |
| Espinosa is the better athlete. He's had some mental lapses losing by early submission, though. This is a real coin flip. | |||||
| David Dvorak | 8200 | Jordan Espinosa | Risky | -105 | +365 |
| Dvorak was fine in his debut win. This is a bigger challenge. He likely won't be very higly owned. That's his biggest selling point. | |||||
| Pay-Downs | |||||
| Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Ryan Spann | 7900 | Johnny Walker | Somewhat-Risky | +110 | +200 |
| Spann has all the tools to take out Walker. The concern I have is that he puts a plan into action prior to Walker getting into his wildman routine and hurting Spann. | |||||
| Randy Costa | 7800 | Journey Newson | Somewhat-Risky | +115 | +225 |
| Costa is wrecklessly aggressive. That's given him two polar opposite results in his UFC career. Newson probably can't match that pace but also has very strong punches. | |||||
| Donald Cerrone | 7700 | Niko Price | Somewhat-Risky | +140 | +190 |
| Cowboy's main path to victory aside from a cut stoppage is a submission win. He has the BJJ but maybe not the desire to wrestle enough. | |||||
| Randa Markos | 7500 | Mackenzie Dern | Risky | +150 | +500 |
| Markos would need to carefully out grapple Dern. Winning the wrestling is easier. Keeping your neck safe is harder. Still, Dern is over-priced in my opinion and there aren't many dogs to get after. | |||||
| Darrick Minner | 7000 | TJ Laramie | Risky | +275 | +355 |
| Playing Minner is a mass entry thought. He's going to look for subs like guillotine's. Maybe he pulls a rabbit out of his hat early when they're dry. | |||||
| Sarah Alpar | 7300 | Jessica-Rose Clark | Risky | +195 | +650 |
| Alpar is a cash play for me. She's not likely to get finished and has half-decent win odds in the range. | |||||
| Irwin Rivera | 7400 | Andre Ewell | Risky | +200 | +440 |
| Rivera would need to win by KO. That makes him a bit more dangerous and a possible slate breaker, albeit at long odds. | |||||
| Darren Stewart | 7100 | Kevin Holland | Risky | +230 | +435 |
| Stewart hits very hard if given the chnace. Holland does get flashy/careless at times. | |||||
| Gerald Meerschaert | 6800 | Khamzat Chimaev | Risky | +330 | +415 |
| Chimaev would hardley be the first Russian prospect to lose by triangle. GM3 can be pretty slippery in the grappling. | |||||
Cash Plays:
(Sample lineup, these aren’t intended as examples of an optimal)
| DK Example Cash | Pivot | DK Example Cash Pivot | ||||
| Fighter | Opp | Salary | Fighter | Opp | Salary | |
| Chimaev | Meerschaert | $9,400 | to | Bektic | $9,500 | |
| Covington | Woodley | $9,300 | ||||
| Woodley | Covington | $6,900 | ||||
| Nam | Rivera | $8,600 | to | Espinosa | Dvorak | $8,000 |
| Price | Cerrone | $8,500 | ||||
| Alpar | Clark | $7,300 | to | Markos | Dern | $7,500 |
| Total Salary | $50,000 | Pivot Salary | $50,000 | |||
| FD Example Cash | Pivot | FD Example Cash Pivot | ||||
| Fighter | Opp | Salary | Fighter | Opp | Salary | |
| Chimaev | Meerschaert | $21 | to | Covington | Woodley | $23 |
| Bueno Silva | Borella | $17 | to | Laramie | Minner | $19 |
| Dern | Markos | $16 | ||||
| Nam | Rivera | $17 | ||||
| Price | Cerrone | $17 | ||||
| Alpar | Clark | $12 | to | Markos | Dern | $11 |
| Total Salary | $100 | Pivot Salary | $100 | |||
GPP Plays:
(Sample lineup, these aren’t intended as examples of an optimal)
| DK Example GPP | Pivot | DK Example GPP Pivot | ||||
| Fighter | Opp | Salary | Fighter | Opp | Salary | |
| Bektic | $9,500 | to | Covington | Woodley | $9,300 | |
| Laramie | Minner | $9,200 | to | Holland | Stewart | $9,100 |
| Dvorak | Espinosa | $8,200 | ||||
| Spann | Walker | $7,900 | to | Walker | Spann | $8,300 |
| Costa | Newson | $7,800 | to | Newson | Costa | $8,400 |
| Alpar | Clark | $7,300 | to | Meerschaert | Chimaev | $6,800 |
| Total Salary | $49,900 | Pivot Salary | $50,000 | |||
| FD Example GPP | Pivot | FD Example GPP Pivot | ||||
| Fighter | Opp | Salary | Fighter | Opp | Salary | |
| Bektic | Jackson | $22 | to | Chimaev | Meerschaert | $21 |
| Laramie | Minner | $19 | to | Holland | Stewart | $20 |
| Spann | Walker | $16 | to | Walker | Spann | $18 |
| Costa | Newson | $16 | to | Newson | Costa | $17 |
| Espinosa | Dvorak | $15 | to | Bueno Silva | Borella | $17 |
| Markos | Dern | $11 | to | Alpar | Clark | $12 |
| Total Salary | $99 | Pivot Salary | $100 | |||
Vegas Odds:
Favorite Bets: Covington -310, Holland -250, Nam -170
Favorite Props: Spann ITD +200, Costa ITD +225
Long Shot: Price wins in round 2 +410
Live Dogs: Costa, Spann, Alpar, Stewart, Woodley, Markos, Meerschaert
Stats & Picks:
| Colby Covington | vs | Tyron Woodley |
| $9,300 | DFS Salary | $6,900 |
| Record: 15-2-0 | Record | Record: 19-5-1 |
| 3 KO/TKO (20%) | Knockouts | 7 KO/TKO (37%) |
| 4 SUBMISSIONS (27%) | Subs | 5 SUBMISSIONS (26%) |
| -310 | Vegas Odds | +280 |
| 8/10 | Lineup Pool | 3/10 |
| Donald Cerrone | vs | Niko Price |
| $7,700 | DFS Salary | $8,500 |
| Record: 36-15-0 (1 NC) | Record | Record: 14-4-0 (1 NC) |
| 10 KO/TKO (28%) | Knockouts | 10 KO/TKO (71%) |
| 17 SUBMISSIONS (47%) | Subs | 3 SUBMISSIONS (21%) |
| +140 | Vegas Odds | -150 |
| 3/10 | Lineup Pool | 7/10 |
| Khamzat Chimaev | vs | Gerald Meerschaert |
| $9,400 | DFS Salary | $6,800 |
| Record: 8-0-0 | Record | Record: 31-13-0 |
| 5 KO/TKO (63%) | Knockouts | 6 KO/TKO (19%) |
| 3 SUBMISSIONS (38%) | Subs | 23 SUBMISSIONS (74%) |
| -370 | Vegas Odds | +330 |
| 8/10 | Lineup Pool | 2/10 |
| Johnny Walker | vs | Ryan Spann |
| $8,300 | DFS Salary | $7,900 |
| Record: 17-5-0 | Record | Record: 18-5-0 |
| 14 KO/TKO (82%) | Knockouts | 4 KO/TKO (22%) |
| 2 SUBMISSIONS (12%) | Subs | 11 SUBMISSIONS (61%) |
| -120 | Vegas Odds | +110 |
| 4/10 | Lineup Pool | 6/10 |
| Mackenzie Dern | vs | Randa Markos |
| $8,700 | DFS Salary | $7,500 |
| Record: 8-1-0 | Record | Record: 10-9-1 |
| 0 KO/TKO (0%) | Knockouts | 0 KO/TKO (0%) |
| 5 SUBMISSIONS (63%) | Subs | 4 SUBMISSIONS (40%) |
| -160 | Vegas Odds | +150 |
| 4/10 | Lineup Pool | 3/10 |
| Kevin Holland | vs | Darren Stewart |
| $9,100 | DFS Salary | $7,100 |
| Record: 18-5-0 | Record | Record: 12-5-0 (1 NC) |
| 9 KO/TKO (50%) | Knockouts | 7 KO/TKO (58%) |
| 6 SUBMISSIONS (33%) | Subs | 1 SUBMISSIONS (8%) |
| -250 | Vegas Odds | +230 |
| 6/10 | Lineup Pool | 3/10 |
| Jordan Espinosa | vs | David Dvorak |
| $8,000 | DFS Salary | $8,200 |
| Record: 15-7-0 (1 NC) | Record | Record: 18-3-0 |
| 2 KO/TKO (13%) | Knockouts | 8 KO/TKO (44%) |
| 7 SUBMISSIONS (47%) | Subs | 7 SUBMISSIONS (39%) |
| -105 | Vegas Odds | -105 |
| 4/10 | Lineup Pool | 3/10 |
| Mirsad Bektic | vs | Damon Jackson |
| $9,500 | DFS Salary | #N/A |
| Record: 13-3-0 | Record | Record: 17-3-1 (1 NC) |
| 6 KO/TKO (46%) | Knockouts | 3 KO/TKO (18%) |
| 3 SUBMISSIONS (23%) | Subs | 13 SUBMISSIONS (76%) |
| #N/A | Vegas Odds | #N/A |
| 8/10 | Lineup Pool | 1/10 |
| Mayra Bueno Silva | vs | Mara Romero Borella |
| $9,000 | DFS Salary | $7,200 |
| Record: 6-1-0 | Record | Record: 12-8-0 (2 NC) |
| 1 KO/TKO (20%) | Knockouts | 3 KO/TKO (27%) |
| 3 SUBMISSIONS (60%) | Subs | 4 SUBMISSIONS (36%) |
| -250 | Vegas Odds | +230 |
| 6/10 | Lineup Pool | 2/10 |
| Jessica-Rose Clark | vs | Sarah Alpar |
| $8,900 | DFS Salary | $7,300 |
| Record: 9-6-0 (1 NC) | Record | Record: 9-4-0 |
| 2 KO/TKO (22%) | Knockouts | 2 KO/TKO (22%) |
| 2 SUBMISSIONS (22%) | Subs | 2 SUBMISSIONS (22%) |
| -215 | Vegas Odds | +195 |
| 4/10 | Lineup Pool | 3/10 |
| Darrick Minner | vs | TJ Laramie |
| $7,000 | DFS Salary | $9,200 |
| Record: 24-11-0 | Record | Record: 12-3-0 |
| 5 KO/TKO (100%) | Knockouts | 1 KO/TKO (4%) |
| 0 SUBMISSIONS (0%) | Subs | 21 SUBMISSIONS (88%) |
| +275 | Vegas Odds | -305 |
| 3/10 | Lineup Pool | 7/10 |
| Journey Newson | vs | Randy Costa |
| $8,400 | DFS Salary | $7,800 |
| Record: 9-2-0 (1 NC) | Record | Record: 5-1-0 |
| 11 KO/TKO (58%) | Knockouts | 3 KO/TKO (33%) |
| 1 SUBMISSIONS (5%) | Subs | 3 SUBMISSIONS (33%) |
| -125 | Vegas Odds | +115 |
| 5/10 | Lineup Pool | 5/10 |
| Andre Ewell | vs | Irwin Rivera |
| $8,800 | DFS Salary | $7,400 |
| Record: 16-6-0 | Record | Record: 10-5-0 |
| 7 KO/TKO (44%) | Knockouts | 5 KO/TKO (50%) |
| 4 SUBMISSIONS (25%) | Subs | 1 SUBMISSIONS (10%) |
| -220 | Vegas Odds | +200 |
| 5/10 | Lineup Pool | 3/10 |