It seems the good linemakers were assigned to the NFL this week. A few spots come out as complete head-scratchers and got steamed. That’s left us with a couple of hilarious DK prices. Tyson Nam was one but we lost his fight on the card. The replacements are priced way down as we’ve seen previously. Remember that fighters aren’t able to train the way they would like to and we’re seeing the results with beaucoup submissions.
Main Event | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
Michelle Waterson vs Angela Hill | 8000/8200 | - | Stackability: Moderate | +110/ -120 | +350/+615 |
I want to make sure I give both of these women props for headlining here but Especially Angie Hill as the first black woman to do it in UFC history. It will be a good fight. It may not be the highest scoring fight, though. Waterson's karate style saps both her and her opponents volume. She's also a scrappy grappler, which does the same. I think Hill can out-volume Waterson and win a decision. Waterson has some small chance of hitting the judo throws she loves and submitting Hill if Angie can't get up quick enough. You don't want to leave it off too many lineups. You can fade it much more than most five-rounders, however. | |||||
Expensive | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
Julia Avila | 9400 | Sijara Eubanks | Safe | -280 | +235 |
My main concern here is that Avila's finishing abilities are going to have a harder time translating as her competition improves. Eubanks is the best she's fought despite her own flaws. Mainly Sijara doesn't have good cardio. If a finish comes it's probably in the third. That could come with a modest DK score. | |||||
Jalin Turner | 9000 | Brok Weaver | Safe | -320 | -155 |
The UFC is trying to make some lemonade out of all these cancelations and putting these two into the ring. Weaver is a tough dude but is absolutely a lamb to the slaughter here. Turner has a shot to be the top score of the night. | |||||
Bryan Barberena | 9000 | Anthony Ivy | Somewhat-Safe | -250 | -130 |
We haven't seen Bam Bam in over a year after two straight savage KOs. He's always leaned on a cast iron chin to make his style work. If that chin is back his breakneck pace makes him an extremely attractive play. Add in that Ivy was hurt by a jab in his last fight and we could be cooking. | |||||
Billy Quarantillo | 9300 | Kyle Nelson | Moderate | -245 | +105 |
Billy Q needs to get through Nelson's early pressure and find a way to get him to the mat. Nelson's game starts to fall apart as the fight's extended. Billy has been improving and probably gets it done in a fun fight. | |||||
Sabina Mazo | 9200 | Justine Kish | Somewhat-Risky | -235 | +450 |
Mazo is the 9K dark horse. She's got great pace and uses here reach well. She gets beat up on the come back some but has showed some real toughness through a 2-1 UFC record. Kish is a test but one I think she passes. | |||||
Mid-Range | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
Roosevelt Roberts | 8400 | Kevin Croom | Moderate | n/a | n/a |
Roberts will be a pretty safe bet to win. The question is how fast does he get it done? Hopefully, he feels some urgency after an ugly loss to Jim Miller last time out. | |||||
Alexandr Romanov | 8700 | Roque Martinez | Somewhat-Risky | -320 | -210 |
The UFC is determined to make Romanov debut come hell or high water. He has a substantial size advantage over Roque here. He should be able to wrestle at will given that and be the harder hitter. | |||||
Mike Rodriguez | 8800 | Ed Herman | Somewhat-Risky | -235 | -120 |
Slow Mike needs to continue being sharp to come away with a win over gritty Ed Herman. Herman can get his but is a very savvy vet. | |||||
Khama Worthy | 8500 | Ottman Azaitar | Risky | -127 | +150 |
Somebody is getting KTFO in this one. Worthy has been eating my lunch each time I pick against him. I'm doing it again here but I'm giving Worthy his due this time around. | |||||
Andrea Lee | 8900 | Roxanne Modafferi | Risky | -295 | +460 |
On occasion Roxi is blown out of the water by a good striker. We don't know if Lee is very good. It's a possibilty here, though. | |||||
Pay-Downs | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
Ottman Azaitar | 7700 | Khama Worthy | Somewhat-Risky | +117 | +190 |
Azaitar is going to come right out and put Worthy to the test. He wings big shots but can get clipped by return fire. Both guys hit hard. Both guys should move forward. | |||||
Ed Herman | 7400 | Mike Rodriguez | Somewhat-Risky | +195 | +420 |
Herman knows what he's about at this point. Strike effectively, grapple your opponent to get them tired, make it to the scorecards. Rodriguez has some power but not the best ring IQ. | |||||
Roxanne Modafferi | 7300 | Andrea Lee | Somewhat-Risky | +265 | +915 |
The time to back Roxi is when she's a big dog. Her intellegence allows her to vastly outperform her lack of physical tools. | |||||
Kyle Nelson | 6900 | Billy Quarantillo | Risky | +225 | +435 |
Nelson could land an early fluke win with his likelihood to come out hot and Billy's tendency to start slow. | |||||
Justine Kish | 7000 | Sabina Mazo | Risky | +195 | +605 |
Kish's raw strength could be trouble for Mazo if she consistently gets inside. Her price is a bit of a value. | |||||
Sijara Eubanks | 6800 | Julia Avila | Risky | +255 | +625 |
There's a ceiling for Avila out there somewhere. We aren't likely to see it coming with how thoroughly she's trouncing her opponents. | |||||
Alan Patrick | 7100 | Bobby Green | Risky | +240 | +640 |
If Patrick can manage to get his wrestling going against the semi-retired Green it could be a huge value in a win. Green is very good defensively in the grappling but also has one foot out the door. |
Cash Plays
DK Example Cash | Pivot | DK Example Cash Pivot | ||||
Fighter | Opp | Salary | Fighter | Opp | Salary | |
Barberena | Ivy | $9,000 | ||||
Turner | Weaver | $9,000 | ||||
Roberts | Croom | $8,400 | ||||
Herman | Rodriguez | $7,400 | to | Modafferi | Lee | $7,300 |
Romanov | Weaver | $8,700 | ||||
Waterson | Hill | $8,000 | to | Hill | Waterson | $8,200 |
Total Salary | $50,500 | Pivot Salary | $50,000 |
FD Example Cash | Pivot | FD Example Cash Pivot | ||||
Fighter | Opp | Salary | Fighter | Opp | Salary | |
Barberena | Ivy | $21 | ||||
Turner | Weaver | $19 | to | Romanov | Weaver | $19 |
Roberts | Croom | $17 | ||||
Herman | Rodriguez | $12 | ||||
Nelson | Quarantillo | $13 | ||||
Waterson | Hill | $17 | to | Mazo | Kish | $18 |
Total Salary | $99 | Pivot Salary | $100 |
GPP Plays
DK Example GPP | Pivot | DK Example GPP Pivot | ||||
Fighter | Opp | Salary | Fighter | Opp | Salary | |
Avila | Eubanks | $9,400 | to | Quarantillo | Nelson | $9,300 |
Mazo | Kish | $9,200 | to | Rodriguez | Herman | $8,800 |
Azaitar | Worthy | $7,700 | to | Worthy | Azaitar | $8,500 |
Herman | Rodriguez | $7,400 | to | Modafferi | Lee | $7,300 |
Nelson | Quarantillo | $6,900 | to | Eubanks | Avila | $6,800 |
Romanov | Weaver | $8,700 | ||||
Total Salary | $49,300 | Pivot Salary | $50,000 |
FD Example GPP | Pivot | FD Example GPP Pivot | ||||
Fighter | Opp | Salary | Fighter | Opp | Salary | |
Avila | Eubanks | $19 | to | Barberena | Ivy | $21 |
Mazo | Kish | $18 | ||||
Azaitar | Worthy | $17 | to | Worthy | Azaitar | $15 |
Herman | Rodriguez | $12 | ||||
Nelson | Quarantillo | $13 | to | Modafferi | Lee | $9 |
Turner | Weaver | $19 | to | Romanov | Weaver | $19 |
Total Salary | $98 | Pivot Salary | $100 |
Favorite Bets: Herman +205, Turner -320
Favorite Props: Worthy/Azaitar UNDER 1.5 rounds -122
Long Shot: Waterson via SUB +450
Live Dogs: Waterson, Azaitar, Modafferi, Herman, Nelson
Stats & Picks
Michelle Waterson | vs | Angela Hill |
$8,000 | DFS Salary | $8,200 |
Record: 17-8-0 | Record | Record: 12-8-0 |
3 KO/TKO (18%) | Knockouts | 5 KO/TKO (42%) |
9 SUBMISSIONS (53%) | Subs | 0 SUBMISSIONS (0%) |
+110 | Vegas Odds | -120 |
4/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
Ottman Azaitar | vs | Khama Worthy |
$7,700 | DFS Salary | $8,500 |
Record: 12-0-0 | Record | Record: 16-6-0 |
9 KO/TKO (75%) | Knockouts | 9 KO/TKO (56%) |
2 SUBMISSIONS (17%) | Subs | 3 SUBMISSIONS (19%) |
+117 | Vegas Odds | -127 |
5/10 | Lineup Pool | 5/10 |
Roxanne Modafferi | vs | Andrea Lee |
$7,300 | DFS Salary | $8,900 |
Record: 24-18-0 | Record | Record: 11-4-0 |
4 KO/TKO (17%) | Knockouts | |
5 SUBMISSIONS (21%) | Subs | |
+265 | Vegas Odds | -295 |
3/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
Ed Herman | vs | Mike Rodriguez |
$7,400 | DFS Salary | $8,800 |
Record: 26-14-0 (1 NC) | Record | Record: 11-4-0 (1 NC) |
7 KO/TKO (28%) | Knockouts | 9 KO/TKO (82%) |
13 SUBMISSIONS (52%) | Subs | 2 SUBMISSIONS (18%) |
+195 | Vegas Odds | -235 |
5/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
Bobby Green | vs | Alan Patrick |
$9,100 | DFS Salary | $7,100 |
Record: 26-10-1 | Record | Record: 15-2-0 |
8 KO/TKO (31%) | Knockouts | 4 KO/TKO (27%) |
9 SUBMISSIONS (35%) | Subs | 2 SUBMISSIONS (13%) |
-260 | Vegas Odds | +240 |
4/10 | Lineup Pool | 3/10 |
Billy Quarantillo | vs | Kyle Nelson |
$9,300 | DFS Salary | $6,900 |
Record: 14-2-0 | Record | Record: 13-3-0 |
5 KO/TKO (36%) | Knockouts | 5 KO/TKO (38%) |
5 SUBMISSIONS (36%) | Subs | 4 SUBMISSIONS (31%) |
-245 | Vegas Odds | +225 |
5/10 | Lineup Pool | 5/10 |
Julia Avila | vs | Sijara Eubanks |
$9,400 | DFS Salary | $6,800 |
Record: 8-1-0 | Record | Record: 6-4-0 |
4 KO/TKO (50%) | Knockouts | 2 KO/TKO (40%) |
1 SUBMISSIONS (13%) | Subs | 0 SUBMISSIONS (0%) |
-280 | Vegas Odds | +255 |
3/10 | Lineup Pool | 7/10 |
Roosevelt Roberts | vs | Kevin Croom |
$8,400 | DFS Salary | $6,700 |
Record: 10-2-0 | Record | Record: 21-12-0 |
3 KO/TKO (30%) | Knockouts | 6 KO/TKO (29%) |
5 SUBMISSIONS (50%) | Subs | 10 SUBMISSIONS (48%) |
-115 | Vegas Odds | #N/A |
5/10 | Lineup Pool | 5/10 |
Alexandr Romanov | vs | Roque Martinez |
$8,700 | DFS Salary | $7,500 |
Record: 11-0-0 | Record | Record: 15-5-2 |
Knockouts | ||
Subs | ||
-320 | Vegas Odds | +290 |
5/10 | Lineup Pool | 5/10 |
Brok Weaver | vs | Jalin Turner |
$7,500 | DFS Salary | $9,000 |
Record: 15-5-0 | Record | Record: 9-5-0 |
2 KO/TKO (13%) | Knockouts | 8 KO/TKO (89%) |
3 SUBMISSIONS (20%) | Subs | 1 SUBMISSIONS (11%) |
+290 | Vegas Odds | -320 |
8/10 | Lineup Pool | 2/10 |
Bryan Barberena | vs | Anthony Ivy |
$9,000 | DFS Salary | $7,200 |
Record: 14-7-0 | Record | Record: 8-3-0 |
10 KO/TKO (71%) | Knockouts | 5 KO/TKO (63%) |
2 SUBMISSIONS (14%) | Subs | 3 SUBMISSIONS (38%) |
-250 | Vegas Odds | +210 |
2/10 | Lineup Pool | 8/10 |
Sabina Mazo | vs | Justine Kish |
$9,200 | DFS Salary | $7,000 |
Record: 8-1-0 | Record | Record: 7-2-0 |
2 KO/TKO (25%) | Knockouts | 0 KO/TKO (0%) |
0 SUBMISSIONS (0%) | Subs | 2 SUBMISSIONS (29%) |
-235 | Vegas Odds | +195 |
6/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |