It seems the good linemakers were assigned to the NFL this week. A few spots come out as complete head-scratchers and got steamed. That’s left us with a couple of hilarious DK prices. Tyson Nam was one but we lost his fight on the card. The replacements are priced way down as we’ve seen previously. Remember that fighters aren’t able to train the way they would like to and we’re seeing the results with beaucoup submissions.

 

Main Event
Fighter(s)PriceOpponentRiskOddsITD
Michelle Waterson vs Angela Hill8000/8200-Stackability: Moderate+110/ -120+350/+615
I want to make sure I give both of these women props for headlining here but Especially Angie Hill as the first black woman to do it in UFC history. It will be a good fight. It may not be the highest scoring fight, though. Waterson's karate style saps both her and her opponents volume. She's also a scrappy grappler, which does the same. I think Hill can out-volume Waterson and win a decision. Waterson has some small chance of hitting the judo throws she loves and submitting Hill if Angie can't get up quick enough. You don't want to leave it off too many lineups. You can fade it much more than most five-rounders, however.
      
Expensive
Fighter(s)PriceOpponentRiskOddsITD
Julia Avila9400Sijara EubanksSafe-280+235
My main concern here is that Avila's finishing abilities are going to have a harder time translating as her competition improves. Eubanks is the best she's fought despite her own flaws. Mainly Sijara doesn't have good cardio. If a finish comes it's probably in the third. That could come with a modest DK score.
Jalin Turner9000Brok WeaverSafe-320-155
The UFC is trying to make some lemonade out of all these cancelations and putting these two into the ring. Weaver is a tough dude but is absolutely a lamb to the slaughter here. Turner has a shot to be the top score of the night.
Bryan Barberena9000Anthony IvySomewhat-Safe-250-130
We haven't seen Bam Bam in over a year after two straight savage KOs. He's always leaned on a cast iron chin to make his style work. If that chin is back his breakneck pace makes him an extremely attractive play. Add in that Ivy was hurt by a jab in his last fight and we could be cooking.
Billy Quarantillo9300Kyle NelsonModerate-245+105
Billy Q needs to get through Nelson's early pressure and find a way to get him to the mat. Nelson's game starts to fall apart as the fight's extended. Billy has been improving and probably gets it done in a fun fight.
Sabina Mazo9200Justine KishSomewhat-Risky-235+450
Mazo is the 9K dark horse. She's got great pace and uses here reach well. She gets beat up on the come back some but has showed some real toughness through a 2-1 UFC record. Kish is a test but one I think she passes.
      
Mid-Range
Fighter(s)PriceOpponentRiskOddsITD
Roosevelt Roberts8400Kevin CroomModeraten/an/a
Roberts will be a pretty safe bet to win. The question is how fast does he get it done? Hopefully, he feels some urgency after an ugly loss to Jim Miller last time out.
Alexandr Romanov8700Roque MartinezSomewhat-Risky-320-210
The UFC is determined to make Romanov debut come hell or high water. He has a substantial size advantage over Roque here. He should be able to wrestle at will given that and be the harder hitter.
Mike Rodriguez8800Ed HermanSomewhat-Risky-235-120
Slow Mike needs to continue being sharp to come away with a win over gritty Ed Herman. Herman can get his but is a very savvy vet.
Khama Worthy8500Ottman AzaitarRisky-127+150
Somebody is getting KTFO in this one. Worthy has been eating my lunch each time I pick against him. I'm doing it again here but I'm giving Worthy his due this time around.
Andrea Lee8900Roxanne ModafferiRisky-295+460
On occasion Roxi is blown out of the water by a good striker. We don't know if Lee is very good. It's a possibilty here, though.
      
Pay-Downs
Fighter(s)PriceOpponentRiskOddsITD
Ottman Azaitar7700Khama WorthySomewhat-Risky+117+190
Azaitar is going to come right out and put Worthy to the test. He wings big shots but can get clipped by return fire. Both guys hit hard. Both guys should move forward.
Ed Herman7400Mike RodriguezSomewhat-Risky+195+420
Herman knows what he's about at this point. Strike effectively, grapple your opponent to get them tired, make it to the scorecards. Rodriguez has some power but not the best ring IQ.
Roxanne Modafferi7300Andrea LeeSomewhat-Risky+265+915
The time to back Roxi is when she's a big dog. Her intellegence allows her to vastly outperform her lack of physical tools.
Kyle Nelson6900Billy QuarantilloRisky+225+435
Nelson could land an early fluke win with his likelihood to come out hot and Billy's tendency to start slow.
Justine Kish7000Sabina MazoRisky+195+605
Kish's raw strength could be trouble for Mazo if she consistently gets inside. Her price is a bit of a value.
Sijara Eubanks6800Julia AvilaRisky+255+625
There's a ceiling for Avila out there somewhere. We aren't likely to see it coming with how thoroughly she's trouncing her opponents.
Alan Patrick7100Bobby GreenRisky+240+640
If Patrick can manage to get his wrestling going against the semi-retired Green it could be a huge value in a win. Green is very good defensively in the grappling but also has one foot out the door.

 

Cash Plays

 

DK Example CashPivotDK Example Cash Pivot
FighterOppSalary FighterOppSalary
BarberenaIvy$9,000    
TurnerWeaver$9,000    
RobertsCroom$8,400    
HermanRodriguez$7,400toModafferiLee$7,300
RomanovWeaver$8,700    
WatersonHill$8,000toHillWaterson$8,200
 Total Salary$50,500  Pivot Salary$50,000

 

FD Example CashPivotFD Example Cash Pivot
FighterOppSalary FighterOppSalary
BarberenaIvy$21    
TurnerWeaver$19toRomanovWeaver$19
RobertsCroom$17    
HermanRodriguez$12    
NelsonQuarantillo$13    
WatersonHill$17toMazoKish$18
 Total Salary$99  Pivot Salary$100


GPP Plays

 

DK Example GPPPivotDK Example GPP Pivot
FighterOppSalary FighterOppSalary
AvilaEubanks$9,400toQuarantilloNelson$9,300
MazoKish$9,200toRodriguezHerman$8,800
AzaitarWorthy$7,700toWorthyAzaitar$8,500
HermanRodriguez$7,400toModafferiLee$7,300
NelsonQuarantillo$6,900toEubanksAvila$6,800
RomanovWeaver$8,700    
 Total Salary$49,300  Pivot Salary$50,000
FD Example GPPPivotFD Example GPP Pivot
FighterOppSalary FighterOppSalary
AvilaEubanks$19toBarberenaIvy$21
MazoKish$18    
AzaitarWorthy$17toWorthyAzaitar$15
HermanRodriguez$12    
NelsonQuarantillo$13toModafferiLee$9
TurnerWeaver$19toRomanovWeaver$19
 Total Salary$98  Pivot Salary$100

 

 

Favorite Bets: Herman +205, Turner -320

Favorite Props: Worthy/Azaitar UNDER 1.5 rounds -122

Long Shot: Waterson via SUB +450

Live Dogs: Waterson, Azaitar, Modafferi, Herman, Nelson

Stats & Picks

 

   
Michelle WatersonvsAngela Hill
$8,000DFS Salary$8,200
Record: 17-8-0RecordRecord: 12-8-0
3 KO/TKO (18%)Knockouts5 KO/TKO (42%)
9 SUBMISSIONS (53%)Subs0 SUBMISSIONS (0%)
+110Vegas Odds-120
4/10Lineup Pool4/10
   
Ottman AzaitarvsKhama Worthy
$7,700DFS Salary$8,500
Record: 12-0-0RecordRecord: 16-6-0
9 KO/TKO (75%)Knockouts9 KO/TKO (56%)
2 SUBMISSIONS (17%)Subs3 SUBMISSIONS (19%)
+117Vegas Odds-127
5/10Lineup Pool5/10
   
Roxanne ModafferivsAndrea Lee
$7,300DFS Salary$8,900
Record: 24-18-0RecordRecord: 11-4-0
4 KO/TKO (17%)Knockouts 
5 SUBMISSIONS (21%)Subs 
+265Vegas Odds-295
3/10Lineup Pool4/10
   
Ed HermanvsMike Rodriguez
$7,400DFS Salary$8,800
Record: 26-14-0 (1 NC)RecordRecord: 11-4-0 (1 NC)
7 KO/TKO (28%)Knockouts9 KO/TKO (82%)
13 SUBMISSIONS (52%)Subs2 SUBMISSIONS (18%)
+195Vegas Odds-235
5/10Lineup Pool4/10
   
Bobby GreenvsAlan Patrick
$9,100DFS Salary$7,100
Record: 26-10-1RecordRecord: 15-2-0
8 KO/TKO (31%)Knockouts4 KO/TKO (27%)
9 SUBMISSIONS (35%)Subs2 SUBMISSIONS (13%)
-260Vegas Odds+240
4/10Lineup Pool3/10
   
Billy QuarantillovsKyle Nelson
$9,300DFS Salary$6,900
Record: 14-2-0RecordRecord: 13-3-0
5 KO/TKO (36%)Knockouts5 KO/TKO (38%)
5 SUBMISSIONS (36%)Subs4 SUBMISSIONS (31%)
-245Vegas Odds+225
5/10Lineup Pool5/10
   
Julia AvilavsSijara Eubanks
$9,400DFS Salary$6,800
Record: 8-1-0RecordRecord: 6-4-0
4 KO/TKO (50%)Knockouts2 KO/TKO (40%)
1 SUBMISSIONS (13%)Subs0 SUBMISSIONS (0%)
-280Vegas Odds+255
3/10Lineup Pool7/10
   
Roosevelt RobertsvsKevin Croom
$8,400DFS Salary$6,700
Record: 10-2-0RecordRecord: 21-12-0
3 KO/TKO (30%)Knockouts6 KO/TKO (29%)
5 SUBMISSIONS (50%)Subs10 SUBMISSIONS (48%)
-115Vegas Odds#N/A
5/10Lineup Pool5/10
   
Alexandr RomanovvsRoque Martinez
$8,700DFS Salary$7,500
Record: 11-0-0RecordRecord: 15-5-2
 Knockouts 
 Subs 
-320Vegas Odds+290
5/10Lineup Pool5/10
   
Brok WeavervsJalin Turner
$7,500DFS Salary$9,000
Record: 15-5-0RecordRecord: 9-5-0
2 KO/TKO (13%)Knockouts8 KO/TKO (89%)
3 SUBMISSIONS (20%)Subs1 SUBMISSIONS (11%)
+290Vegas Odds-320
8/10Lineup Pool2/10
   
Bryan BarberenavsAnthony Ivy
$9,000DFS Salary$7,200
Record: 14-7-0RecordRecord: 8-3-0
10 KO/TKO (71%)Knockouts5 KO/TKO (63%)
2 SUBMISSIONS (14%)Subs3 SUBMISSIONS (38%)
-250Vegas Odds+210
2/10Lineup Pool8/10
   
Sabina MazovsJustine Kish
$9,200DFS Salary$7,000
Record: 8-1-0RecordRecord: 7-2-0
2 KO/TKO (25%)Knockouts0 KO/TKO (0%)
0 SUBMISSIONS (0%)Subs2 SUBMISSIONS (29%)
-235Vegas Odds+195
6/10Lineup Pool4/10