| Main Event |
| Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| This fight is the conclusion of the Trilogy for greatest HW champ of all time. Barring a quick KO on either side both men will rack up a boatload of stats. That makes the winner a must have. Even in a loss, DC was on GPP winners in the last fight. I'd be careful going to that well again as it's going to be a popular strategy. My pick is Stipe. He's younger and seemed to solve DC as the last fight went on. |
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| Expensive |
| Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Herbert Burns | 8900 | Daniel Pineda | Safe | -260 | -150 |
| The elder Burns brother is on a tear of his own. Not title shot territory like Gilbert but a an eye opening introduction to UFC fans with two quick finishes. There are holes in his game that will get exposed by better fighters but that’s not Pineda. He’s here as a warm body to keep a trending fighter busy. |
| | 9200 | Marlon Vera | Somewhat-Safe | -250 | +135 |
| The biggest issue with the Sugar Show is that he hasn’t had to face anyone near Vera’s level. O’Malley will outwork him without much challenge but is going to find much more fight in this opponent than any he’s faced. If he avoids getting sub’d he wins a high-scoring decision in all likelihood. |
| Virna Jandiroba | 9000 | Felice Herrig | Moderate | -290 | +210 |
| I’m taking a leap of faith that Virna is the better grappler and has smoother BJJ. Herrig’s calling card is that she’s stronger than most. I don’t think that’s enough against Virna, who is also on the bigger side for the division. A sub win is definitely a possibility here. |
| Kai Kamaka | 8900 | Tony Kelley | Somewhat-Risky | -215 | +290 |
| Kamaka can hurt opponents but isn’t enough of an aggressor at times. Kelley, on the other hand, is very much the aggressor. That will give openings to both men. A finish is well within reason on either side. Kamaka is the more rounded fighter, so he’s favored. |
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| Mid-Range |
| Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Jairzinho Rozenstruik | 8400 | Junior Dos Santos | Moderate | -120 | +115 |
| People seem to be forgetting the power Jair possesses. He will sleep you with any strike in his arsenal. JDS is probably the better boxer but at this point he rushes in and can’t quite eat shots the way he used to. One of these HWs is going night-night. I’m more interested in the one on the come up not sticking his head in lion’s mouths. |
| Merab Dvalishvili | 8700 | John Dodson | Somewhat-Risky | -245 | +700 |
| The general sentiment is that Dodson will do what he always does: use his speed, neutralize his opponents attacks, and point fight. He will try, and may succeed. Merab is a different beast, however. He pursues takedowns relentlessly. He’s not going to land the 8-10 he normally does. He may be able to get enough to hit value along with advances, though. |
| TJ Brown | 8800 | Danny Chavez | Somewhat-Risky | -150 | +150 |
| Brown only has one speed. That certainly makes his fights exciting. It leads to DK points on both sides. It also exposes him to major liabilities that he often pays for. It’s a big risk at this price, though possibly worth the reward. |
| Jim Miller | 8300 | Vinc Pichel | Risky | +110 | +240 |
| Jim Miller just keeps surprising fighters that weren’t ready for how slick his BJJ is. Pichel is a savvy vet and doesn’t see, likely to do that. I’ve said that about Miller opponents before, though. First round subs pay big. |
| Parker Porter | 8500 | Chris Daukaus | Risky | -110 | +160 |
| Porter goes forward in sloppy, full steam fashion. That’s a boom or bust style at HW. I’d back the younger fighter but Daukaus can make mistakes himself. |
| Livinha Souza | 8600 | Ashley Yoder | Risky | -150 | +325 |
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| Pay-Downs |
| Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Danny Chavez | 7400 | TJ Brown | Somewhat-Risky | +140 | +330 |
| Chavez is a very intriguing underdog. When he clips you, you feel it. Brown gets dropped his fair share. This should be an all action fight for as long as it lasts. Should the dog come through he’s a shoe in to be on the optimal lineup. |
| Vinc Pichel | 7900 | Jim Miller | Somewhat-Risky | -120 | +315 |
| Pichel is a solid grappler and the better striker. He probably wins a gritty decision if he isn’t subbed early. That doesn’t pay big on DK unless Miller gets tired and out-grappled. A ground and pound stoppage is also in the cards for Pichel if that happens. |
| Junior Dos Santos | 7800 | Jairzinho Rozenstruik | Somewhat-Risky | +110 | +205 |
| JDS doesn’t have the same chin he used to and isn’t quite as crafty as he was. He can still move extremely well for a HW and throws plenty heat. The real out for him is via a takedown and submission or GnP stoppage. Jair is still very raw in the grappling department. |
| Chris Daukaus | 7700 | Parker Porter | Risky | +100 | +160 |
| Daukaus is a definite GPP play. Lots of upside, and lots of risk. At least it’s at HW and a finish could come early. |
| Tony Kelley | 7300 | Herbert Burns | Risky | +195 | +427 |
| Kelley will put on a show, win or lose typically. He deserves inclusion in GPP pools for his chance to win ITD. |
| Marlon Vera | 7000 | | Risky | 235 | +460 |
| Vera should not be the cheapest fighter on the card. He may start slow but can hurt opponents when he gets going. His grappling is also underrated. It’s been a few years since O’Malley had issues with that due to his suspension but we can’t be sure he’s fixed it. Chito may expose a flaw in the favorite’s game via submission. |
| Ashley Yoder | 7600 | Livinha Souza | Risky | +140 | +900 |
| Yoder can duplicate most of what gave Souza trouble against Brianna Van Buren. Namely pressure grappling. While Yoder may not be the most skilled she goes harder than anyone. Her upside is capped without a finish but an intriguing cash play. |
| John Dodson | 7500 | Merab Dvalishvili | Risky | +225 | +365 |
| Dodson reminded us in his last fight that he still has blinding hand speed and enough power to hurt fighters even up at 135. Merab does tend to have a one-track focus on grappling. Dodson would need a finish to be a GPP value, though. |
