Let’s all say a prayer that this week is problem free after the sacrificial lamb that last week’s debacle of a card was. The fights are typical Fight Night quality without a ton of live dogs. Take a chance on one or two dogs and concentrate on a core.

 

Main Event
Fighter(s)PriceOpponentRiskOddsITD
Derrick Lewis vs Aleksei Oleinik8700/7500-Stackability: Moderate-178/ +167-140/+190
 
      
Expensive
Fighter(s)PriceOpponentRiskOddsITD
Nasrat Haqparast9000Alexander MunozSafe-235+155
People seem on the fence about Haqparast after Drew Dober KO'd him. I'm not. He made a mistake that Dober punished. We're on to this fight. Haq is the far better striker. Munoz won't really have an answer for it and his wrestling is probably ineffective. I like Haq for the floor and the ceiling.
Kevin Holland9400Joaquin BuckleySomewhat-Safe-420-145
I'm a little worried about Holland at this price. He's dynamic, when he wants to be. Buckley is generally tough and can threaten some power back. I can easily see Holland not hitting value as the most expensive fighter.
Beneil Dariush9100Scott HoltzmanModerate-380-125
Dariush would win this if it were purely a contest of skill. Holtzman's strength solid wrestling make it much closer. This fight has a wide range of outcomes. Beni's BJJ has always been good but it's become downright lethal. A sub is in play if Holtzman gets careless.
Youssef Zalal9300Peter BarrettModerate-450+130
Zalal is overpriced on DK based on the his odds. He's very likely to win but doesn't fight a style that racks up points. He does have a shot at a submission win but it would need to be in round 1 at this price.
      
Mid-Range
Fighter(s)PriceOpponentRiskOddsITD
Darren Stewart8600Maki PitoloModerate-142+166
I'm doing my best not to underestimate Pitolo again. I still see the flaws even in a win over Byrd. Against Stewart, those mistakes are even more likely to be punished. Stewart has his own flaws, namely defensive grappling, I just don't see Pitolo having a plan to exploit it.
Irwin Rivera8900Ali AlQaisiModerate-172+246
Rivera is slightly overpriced. That may not matter if he scores a finish. He has the aggression to do it.
Gavin Tucker8400Justin JaynesModerate-117+315
Tucker's ownership will always be tempered by people's memory of the beat down Rick Glenn gave him. It's best to consider that result but also view the fight in a vacuum. Tucker is the better fighter. A haymaker KO is Jaynes only real out.
Laureano Staropoli8300Tim MeansSomewhat-Risky-137+205
Staropoli is tough and willing to brawl. That's a decent recipe to beat Means these days. Staropoli is outclassed without a KO finish, though.
Derrick Lewis8700Aleksei OleinikSomewhat-Risky-178-140
Even when Lewis bails himself out of a fight he's losing with a surprise KO it comes late behind no volume. He'd have to do it in the first round for a change. Not impossible but not his style at this point.
Yana Kunitskaya8800Julija StoliarenkoRisky-178+420
Yana is the more well-rounded and more experienced fighter. If she can weather the early storm she should dominate the rest of the fight.
Omari Akhmedov8200Chris WeidmanRisky+127+200
Akhmedov has the same shot to beat Weidman that the last six people have. Crunch his chin and he won't know what state he's in.
Chris Weidman8000Omari AkhmedovRisky235+270
If his chin doesn't get checked Weidman is the better wrestler, better distance striker, and busier fighter.
      
Pay-Downs
Fighter(s)PriceOpponentRiskOddsITD
Aleksei Oleinik7500Derrick LewisSomewhat-Risky+167+190
Oleinik is game to engage anyone. That's his path to victory and his flaw. His chin still can eat one big shot. Not numerous shots. It will be interesting to see if he can control the freakishly strong Lewis if he gets him tied up.
Justin Jaynes7800Gavin TuckerSomewhat-Risky+107+250
Jaynes is KO or bust, and he knows it.
Scott Holtzman7100Beneil DariushSomewhat-Risky+170+400
Holtzman could be the stronger grappler and work behind it to a decision win. Dariush also has major chin issues.
Julija Stoliarenko7400Yana KunitskayaRisky+167+280
Stoliarenko goes for broke. That could lead to a fluke win but it's likely her undoing.
Ali AlQaisi7300Irwin RiveraRisky#N/A#N/A
The newcomer is a pretty big unknown. That's been hit and miss during the pandemic.
Maki Pitolo7600Darren StewartRisky+132+285
Pitolo throwing bombs and wrestling like a bull rider could be trouble for the measured Stewart.
Joaquin Buckley6800Kevin HollandRisky+375+424
Buckley would need to stand up to some incoming fire and deliver a counter shot knockdown.

 

DK Example GPPPivotDK Example GPP Pivot
FighterOppSalary FighterOppSalary
HollandBuckley$9,400    
RiveraAlQaisi$8,900    
TuckerJaynes$8,400    
MeansStaropoli$7,900toStaropoliMeans$8,300
StoliarenkoKunitskaya$7,400    
PitoloStewart$7,600toStewartPitolo$8,600
 Total Salary$49,600  Pivot Salary$50,000
       
DK Example CashPivotDK Example Cash Pivot
FighterOppSalary FighterOppSalary
HaqparastMunoz$9,000toZalalBarrett$9,300
KunitskayaStoliarenko$8,800    
SanchezTurman$7,700    
OleinikLewis$7,500    
StewartPitolo$8,600    
WeidmanAkhmedov$8,000toAkhmedovWeidman$8,200
 Total Salary$49,600  Pivot Salary$50,000

Example Lineups:

 

Vegas Plays:

Favorite Bets: Oleinik +170, Haqparast -240, Tucker -125

Favorite Props: Sanchez via DEC +190, Stewart ITD +166

Long Shot: Kunitskaya ITD +420

Live Dogs: Oleinik, Akhmedov, Holtzman, Means, Jaynes

 

Stats & Picks: 

Derrick LewisvsAleksei Oleinik
$8,700DFS Salary$7,500
Record: 23-7-0 (1 NC)RecordRecord: 59-13-1
18 KO/TKO (78%)Knockouts8 KO/TKO (14%)
1 SUBMISSIONS (4%)Subs46 SUBMISSIONS (78%)
-178Vegas Odds+167
3/10Lineup Pool5/10
   
Omari AkhmedovvsChris Weidman
$8,200DFS Salary$8,000
Record: 20-4-1RecordRecord: 14-5-0
0 KO/TKO (0%)Knockouts7 KO/TKO (35%)
0 SUBMISSIONS (0%)Subs5 SUBMISSIONS (25%)
+127Vegas Odds235
5/10Lineup Pool5/10
   
Maki PitolovsDarren Stewart
$7,600DFS Salary$8,600
Record: 13-5-0RecordRecord: 11-5-0 (1 NC)
7 KO/TKO (64%)Knockouts6 KO/TKO (43%)
0 SUBMISSIONS (0%)Subs4 SUBMISSIONS (29%)
+132Vegas Odds-142
3/10Lineup Pool7/10
   
Yana KunitskayavsJulija Stoliarenko
$8,800DFS Salary$7,400
Record: 12-5-0 (1 NC)RecordRecord: 9-4-1
0 KO/TKO (0%)Knockouts7 KO/TKO (54%)
8 SUBMISSIONS (89%)Subs3 SUBMISSIONS (23%)
-178Vegas Odds+167
7/10Lineup Pool3/10
   
Beneil DariushvsScott Holtzman
$9,100DFS Salary$7,100
Record: 18-4-1RecordRecord: 14-3-0
7 KO/TKO (58%)Knockouts4 KO/TKO (22%)
1 SUBMISSIONS (8%)Subs8 SUBMISSIONS (44%)
-185Vegas Odds+170
5/10Lineup Pool5/10
   
Tim MeansvsLaureano Staropoli
$7,900DFS Salary$8,300
Record: 29-12-1 (1 NC)RecordRecord: 9-2-0
5 KO/TKO (36%)Knockouts19 KO/TKO (66%)
2 SUBMISSIONS (14%)Subs5 SUBMISSIONS (17%)
+127Vegas Odds-137
5/10Lineup Pool4/10
   
Kevin HollandvsJoaquin Buckley
$9,400DFS Salary$6,800
Record: 17-5-0RecordRecord: 10-2-0
5 KO/TKO (56%)Knockouts8 KO/TKO (47%)
2 SUBMISSIONS (22%)Subs6 SUBMISSIONS (35%)
-420Vegas Odds+375
7/10Lineup Pool2/10
   
Nasrat HaqparastvsAlexander Munoz
$9,000DFS Salary$7,200
Record: 11-3-0RecordRecord: 6-0-0
7 KO/TKO (70%)Knockouts9 KO/TKO (82%)
0 SUBMISSIONS (0%)Subs0 SUBMISSIONS (0%)
-235Vegas Odds+215
8/10Lineup Pool1/10
   
Andrew SanchezvsWellington Turman
$7,700DFS Salary$8,500
Record: 12-5-0RecordRecord: 16-3-0
2 KO/TKO (33%)Knockouts5 KO/TKO (45%)
1 SUBMISSIONS (17%)Subs2 SUBMISSIONS (18%)
+130Vegas Odds-140
4/10Lineup Pool4/10
   
Gavin TuckervsJustin Jaynes
$8,400DFS Salary$7,800
Record: 11-1-0RecordRecord: 16-4-0
8 KO/TKO (50%)Knockouts4 KO/TKO (25%)
5 SUBMISSIONS (31%)Subs7 SUBMISSIONS (44%)
-117Vegas Odds+107
6/10Lineup Pool3/10
   
Youssef ZalalvsPeter Barrett
$9,300DFS Salary$6,900
Record: 9-2-0RecordRecord: 11-3-0
7 KO/TKO (64%)Knockouts4 KO/TKO (36%)
2 SUBMISSIONS (18%)Subs5 SUBMISSIONS (45%)
-450Vegas Odds+400
6/10Lineup Pool2/10
   
Irwin RiveravsAli AlQaisi
$8,900DFS Salary$7,300
Record: 9-5-0RecordRecord: 8-3-0
2 KO/TKO (22%)Knockouts5 KO/TKO (56%)
5 SUBMISSIONS (56%)Subs1 SUBMISSIONS (11%)
-172Vegas Odds#N/A
6/10Lineup Pool2/10