MMA DFS Playbook: UFC Fight Night - Fight Island 3
Published: Jul 25, 2020
We’re making our last night on Fight Island count with an enormous fight card. The pricing is whacky as ever with Khamzat Chimaev breaking the bank at $9800. There’s never been a better opportunity to have a unique lineup and take down a tourney solo.
Main Event | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
Robert Whittaker vs Darren Till | 8300/7900 | - | Stackability: Moderate | -128/ +118 | +185/+230 |
This is an enormous discount on Whitaker given that we can’t be sure his chin isn’t shot. If it is, Till will crack it at some point. If not, Bobby Knuckles with soundly outwork Till. I’m taking the discount. Till has come up short almost every time he steps up in competition. Till’s slow pace also makes this not of much interest for a stack. | |||||
Expensive | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
Khamzat Chimaev | 9800 | Rhys McKee | Safe | -120 | -450 |
Chimaev gets an unheard of price after ragdolling John Phillips ten days ago. The challenge at this price is the hit 12x value while also allowing room to get that across your other five spots. His ownership could pass 50% even at the price. | |||||
Movsar Evloev | 9100 | Mike Grundy | Somewhat-Safe | -185 | +347 |
Evloev is the better wrestler and the busier fighter here. Grundy is big for the weight and has some dangerous power but maybe not the technique to make that work against Evloev. I’m also interested to see what he does when Evloev puts him in trouble with some BJJ. | |||||
Nathaniel Wood | 9500 | John Castaneda | Moderate | -380 | -125 |
Wood is a much better fighter in all arenas the Casteneda with plenty of finishing ability. His only drawback is a propensity to stay on the centerline at times and get hit. His chin is showing the wear from it a bit. He’s a tough kid, though. | |||||
Alexander Gustafsson | 9300 | Fabricio Werdum | Somewhat-Risky | -300 | +130 |
We get the debut of HW Gus against fellow old man Werdum. If Gus can keep it standing he should toast Werdum. That’s no given, however. | |||||
Ramazan Emeev | 9400 | Niklas Stolze | Somewhat-Risky | -385 | +325 |
Emeev probably pushes Stolze against the fence for three rounds of clinch game dominance. Not an exciting style but effective. Also not enough for the DK price. | |||||
Mauricio Rua | 9000 | Rogerio Nogueira | Risky | -190 | +120 |
Shogun looks to go 3-0 against fellow Brazilian legend little Nog. That’s not a hard win to claim these days with how limited Nog is at 44. You just need to watch out for a heavy counter shot. | |||||
Mid-Range | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
Tom Aspinall | 8800 | Jake Collier | Somewhat-Safe | -280 | -125 |
Aspinall is a decent HW prospect with decent grappling and some heavy hands. Collier is coming in very heavy and out of shape. The fight probably doesn’t see a second round. | |||||
Francisco Trinaldo | 8500 | Jai Herbert | Somewhat-Risky | -125 | +225 |
I was higher on Trinaldo before he missed weight. He’s a legend and not someone to trifle with. I still feel like he gets his act together in the ring but it’s closer after the tough cut. | |||||
Alex Oliveira | 8700 | Peter Sobotta | Somewhat-Risky | -157 | +175 |
Cowboy comes in and does Cowboy things for better or worse. Sobotta is likely outgunned here if Oliveira can avoid the big mistake that has cost him prior fights. Still, $8700 is a big price tag. | |||||
Marina Rodriguez | 8600 | Carla Esparza | Somewhat-Risky | -172 | +317 |
Marina’s length is going to be a big challenge to solve for Esparza. On top of that, Marina pushes forwarded constantly. We’re still waiting for her to fix that takedown defense. Maybe it’ll click this fight. | |||||
Tanner Boser | 8900 | Raphael Pessoa | Somewhat-Risky | -275 | +210 |
I’m coming around on Boser. He’s gotten into better shape and coming out of his shell to take slightly more calculated risks. That resulted in a KO win his last fight out. Pessoa will give him plenty of openings. | |||||
Pannie Kianzad | 8400 | Bethe Correia | Risky | -150 | +455 |
Kianzad could show she’s taken a big step up here. Correia is a vet who doesn’t wilt easily. It’s a close fight. The younger lady could be the hungrier fighter here. | |||||
Gadzhimurad Antigulov | 8200 | Paul Craig | Risky | +122 | +178 |
There’s not much analysis needed in this one. Antigulov comes out with lots of pressure and either gets it done or goes belly up. Craig cannot handle pressure well. | |||||
Paul Craig | 8000 | Gadzhimurad Antigulov | Risky | -132 | +105 |
Craig is tough, however. If he can show the ref enough to stay in the fight Antigulov will be out of bullets. Craig can get to work with some long kicks. | |||||
Pay-Downs | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
Jai Herbert | 7700 | Francisco Trinaldo | Somewhat-Risky | +115 | +470 |
We finally get a look at British prospect Jai Herbert. He’s a dangerous striker. Trinaldo is a very stiff first test. He’ll need to avoid getting tied up and stay busy. | |||||
Fabricio Werdum | 6900 | Alexander Gustafsson | Somewhat-Risky | +270 | +480 |
Werdum will always be able to grapple. Gustafsson has shown some definite weakness when put on his back. It’s a worthwhile gamble in a lineup of two at the price. | |||||
Peter Sobotta | 7500 | Alex Oliveira | Somewhat-Risky | +147 | +290 |
Sobotta’s path to victory is fighting tight until Oliveira makes a mistake. That happens plenty of the time. Peter’s especially live for a submission. | |||||
Mike Grundy | 7100 | Movsar Evloev | Risky | +170 | +425 |
Grundy is very big for the weight and packs a punch. If he’s able to shutdown Evloev’s wrestling he could find a home for a heavy hook. It’ll probably take a finish to win, though. | |||||
Carla Esparza | 7600 | Marina Rodriguez | Risky | +162 | +140 |
Esparza’s MMA game is focused solely on out grappling opponents. That’s given Rodriguez a good amount of trouble in her two UFC losses. A boring, hold her opponent down fight could be incoming. | |||||
Rogerio Nogueira | 7200 | Mauricio Rua | Risky | 235 | +235 |
The only way little Nog wins this one is a KO. Rua is more hittable than ever and his brain is likely damaged from years of wars. | |||||
Raphael Pessoa | 7300 | Tanner Boser | Risky | +250 | +458 |
Pessoa’s size is his real advantage. If you get in his range for long enough he will wing bombs. There’s always a puncher’s chance. | |||||
Jesse Ronson | 7000 | Nicolas Dalby | Risky | +225 | +465 |
Ronson is live for a knockout here. Dalby has to fight at a heavy pace and that leads to him getting hit more than he’d like. It will be a close fight. Ronson tends to lose close decisions time and time again, though. | |||||
Bethe Correia | 7800 | Pannie Kianzad | Risky | +140 | +800 |
I’d like Correia more at a lower price tag. She can win a close fight. It will be hard to break 70 points. | |||||
John Castaneda | 6700 | Nathaniel Wood | Risky | +340 | +750 |
Castaneda could pull a huge upset if he’s able to turn this into a brawl. Wood certainly hasn’t been immune to that when his opponent takes the fight to him. |
Cash Plays
(Sample lineup)
GPP Plays
(Sample lineup)
Best Bets
Favorite Bets: Whittaker -132, Aspinall -240, Boser -270
Favorite Props: Antigulov ITD +178, Correia via DEC +177
Long Shot: Werdum ITD +480
Live Dogs: Werdum, Sobotta, Nogueira, Herbert, Grundy, Correia, Ronson, Castaneda
Stats & Picks
Robert Whittaker | vs | Darren Till |
$8,300 | DFS Salary | $7,900 |
Record: 21-5-0 | Record | Record: 18-2-1 |
9 KO/TKO (45%) | Knockouts | 10 KO/TKO (56%) |
5 SUBMISSIONS (25%) | Subs | 2 SUBMISSIONS (11%) |
-128 | Vegas Odds | +118 |
7/10 | Lineup Pool | 3/10 |
Mauricio Rua | vs | Rogerio Nogueira |
$9,000 | DFS Salary | $7,200 |
Record: 26-11-1 | Record | Record: 23-9-0 |
21 KO/TKO (81%) | Knockouts | 8 KO/TKO (35%) |
1 SUBMISSIONS (4%) | Subs | 6 SUBMISSIONS (26%) |
-190 | Vegas Odds | 235 |
4/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
Fabricio Werdum | vs | Alexander Gustafsson |
$6,900 | DFS Salary | $9,300 |
Record: 23-9-1 | Record | Record: 18-6-0 |
6 KO/TKO (26%) | Knockouts | |
11 SUBMISSIONS (48%) | Subs | |
+270 | Vegas Odds | -300 |
5/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
Carla Esparza | vs | Marina Rodriguez |
$7,600 | DFS Salary | $8,600 |
Record: 17-6-0 | Record | Record: 12-0-2 |
3 KO/TKO (19%) | Knockouts | 5 KO/TKO (42%) |
4 SUBMISSIONS (25%) | Subs | 1 SUBMISSIONS (8%) |
+162 | Vegas Odds | -172 |
4/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
Paul Craig | vs | Gadzhimurad Antigulov |
$8,000 | DFS Salary | $8,200 |
Record: 12-4-1 | Record | Record: 20-6-0 |
1 KO/TKO (8%) | Knockouts | 4 KO/TKO (20%) |
11 SUBMISSIONS (92%) | Subs | 15 SUBMISSIONS (75%) |
-132 | Vegas Odds | +122 |
3/10 | Lineup Pool | 7/10 |
Alex Oliveira | vs | Peter Sobotta |
$8,700 | DFS Salary | $7,500 |
Record: 20-8-1 (2 NC) | Record | Record: 17-6-1 |
12 KO/TKO (57%) | Knockouts | 5 KO/TKO (29%) |
5 SUBMISSIONS (24%) | Subs | 10 SUBMISSIONS (59%) |
-157 | Vegas Odds | +147 |
4/10 | Lineup Pool | 5/10 |
Khamzat Chimaev | vs | Rhys McKee |
$9,800 | DFS Salary | $6,400 |
Record: 7-0-0 | Record | Record: 10-2-1 |
Knockouts | 7 KO/TKO (70%) | |
Subs | 3 SUBMISSIONS (30%) | |
-120 | Vegas Odds | +850 |
8/10 | Lineup Pool | 0/10 |
Francisco Trinaldo | vs | Jai Herbert |
$8,500 | DFS Salary | $7,700 |
Record: 25-7-0 | Record | Record: 10-1-0 |
Knockouts | 8 KO/TKO (80%) | |
Subs | 1 SUBMISSIONS (10%) | |
-125 | Vegas Odds | +115 |
5/10 | Lineup Pool | 5/10 |
Nicolas Dalby | vs | Jesse Ronson |
$9,200 | DFS Salary | $7,000 |
Record: 18-3-1 (1 NC) | Record | Record: 21-10-0 |
6 KO/TKO (33%) | Knockouts | 10 KO/TKO (48%) |
4 SUBMISSIONS (22%) | Subs | 7 SUBMISSIONS (33%) |
-245 | Vegas Odds | +225 |
5/10 | Lineup Pool | 5/10 |
Tom Aspinall | vs | Jake Collier |
$8,800 | DFS Salary | $7,400 |
Record: 7-2-0 | Record | Record: 11-4-0 |
5 KO/TKO (71%) | Knockouts | 5 KO/TKO (45%) |
2 SUBMISSIONS (29%) | Subs | 3 SUBMISSIONS (27%) |
-280 | Vegas Odds | +255 |
8/10 | Lineup Pool | 1/10 |
Movsar Evloev | vs | Mike Grundy |
$9,100 | DFS Salary | $7,100 |
Record: 12-0-0 | Record | Record: 12-1-0 |
3 KO/TKO (25%) | Knockouts | 1 KO/TKO (8%) |
4 SUBMISSIONS (33%) | Subs | 8 SUBMISSIONS (67%) |
-185 | Vegas Odds | +170 |
6/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
Tanner Boser | vs | Raphael Pessoa |
$8,900 | DFS Salary | $7,300 |
Record: 18-6-1 | Record | Record: 10-1-0 |
9 KO/TKO (50%) | Knockouts | 6 KO/TKO (60%) |
2 SUBMISSIONS (11%) | Subs | 1 SUBMISSIONS (10%) |
-275 | Vegas Odds | +250 |
7/10 | Lineup Pool | 2/10 |
Bethe Correia | vs | Pannie Kianzad |
$7,800 | DFS Salary | $8,400 |
Record: 11-4-1 | Record | Record: 13-5-0 |
2 KO/TKO (18%) | Knockouts | 3 KO/TKO (25%) |
0 SUBMISSIONS (0%) | Subs | 0 SUBMISSIONS (0%) |
+140 | Vegas Odds | -150 |
4/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |