We’re back with our second Fight Island card of the week. We’re blessed with a title fight on a non-PPV card. Like the last card, picking dogs is a challenge here. There will be underdog winners, though. Stick to your guns and search out the best opportunities. 

 

Main Event
Fighter(s)PriceOpponentRiskOddsITD
Deiveson Figueiredo vs Joseph Benavidez9000/7200-Stackability: Risky-215/ +195-130/+565
This rematch is necessary for two reasons. Figueiredo missed weight in the first fight and wasn’t eligible to win the belt and Fig’s KO win came after a clash of heads. It’s still a fun fight. I just worry about Joe-B’s mental state. He’s sounded far from composed. He’ll need to be to fight the right gameplan of extending out Figueiredo into the late rounds where he’s more controllable. If he doesn’t, another KO loss is coming for Joe. Figueiredo’s slower pace makes this unstackable.
      
Expensive
Fighter(s)PriceOpponentRiskOddsITD
Grant Dawson9200Nad NarimaniSomewhat-Safe-220+175
Dawson is a handful for most opponents. He hits hard despite raw striking and can obviously tap you on the mat. Nad was lost in his last fight without the grappling edge. That in addition to the size he’s giving up to Dawson is a bad recipe.
Montel Jackson9100Brett JohnsSomewhat-Safe-200+350
Montel has shot up the MMA ranks despite only being pro for a few years. He’s long, strong, and skilled all around. Johns is tough as nails and it should be a back and forth fight. Barring Jackson being held down on the mat, which doesn’t happen, it’s probably going his way in a very fast-paced fight.
Joe Duffy9300Joel AlvarezModerate-350+175
We don’t know what version of Duffy is coming to fight here. He’s been a capable finisher but he’s also no-showed plenty of fights recently. He’s probably better than Alvarez but it’s a shaky play.
Roman Dolidze8900Khadis IbragimovSomewhat-Risky-147+120
Dolidze is a pretty big unknown coming in 6-0 on the regional scene but also off of a USADA suspension. Ibragimov tends to beat himself if he doesn’t knock you out. He’s yet to KO a serious opponent. Dolidze should be able to do that.
      
Mid-Range
Fighter(s)PriceOpponentRiskOddsITD
Jack Hermansson8000Kelvin GastelumModerate-105+385
We’re starting off with the coin flip fight in this tier since it’s a good one. Both guys need to get back in the win column. Jack the Joker has a clear advantage to me. He has nasty GnP and Gastellum can be taken down. When Hermansson gets his game plan going he’s DK gold.
Kelvin Gastelum8200Jack HermanssonSomewhat-Risky-105+245
The case for Gastelum would be his toughness. That usually leads to him surviving hairy spots to get a chance to knock down his opponent. He does crack hard. Coming of a knee surgery and lackluster performance prior to that has me fading him.
Alexandre Pantoja8800Askar AskarovSomewhat-Safe-185+275
Pantoja is just too lethal. He swings to take your head off and also has one of the best backpacks to RNCs in MMA. Askarov is good at surviving which could pour some water on the finish bonus we’re hoping for from Pantoja. I don’t expect him to see the final bel, though.
Amir Albazi8600Malcolm GordonSomewhat-Risky-165+175
Albazi is making his UFC debut on short notice. That’s not always great but his wrestling heavy style is probably the best one to have in such a case. He’s been tagged on the feet before, so there’s some risk with the always game Gordon. A dominant performance could be incoming, though.
Arman Tsarukyan8700Davi RamosModerate-195+475
Tsarukyan is molded in the efficient Russian style. A sharp but cautious striker who has grappling chops. Ramos lost to the prototype of that in his last fight with Islam Makachev. The outcome is unlikely to change here.
Serghei Spivac8400Carlos FelipeRisky-175 
If Spivac gets the fight to the mat at any point Felipe is in big trouble. We saw what Spivac can do to a low-level grappler against Tuivasa. The most predictable outcome is Spivac rag-dolling Felipe for a couple of rounds, followed by a sub.
Marc Diakiese8500Rafael FizievSomewhat-Risky-147+300
Diakiese managed to get back in the win column recently. He’s a good, not great fighter. Fiziev mainly wants to fight standing so getting his grappling going could be big here.
Ariane Lipski8300Luana CarolinaRisky-120+390
The only path to victory I see to clearly favor Lipski is grappling. They’re both long fighters but Carolina is a bit more wiry. That may allow Lipski to get a hold of her on the mat.
      
Pay-Downs
Fighter(s)PriceOpponentRiskOddsITD
Brett Johns7100Montel JacksonModerate+185+435
Relentless is the best way to describe Johns. He has to be. If he’s not putting you on your back he’s likely eating return fire. That’s trouble against Jackson. However, Ricky Simon was able to beat Jackson with a volume approach that Johns can mimic.
Malcolm Gordon7600Amir AlbaziSomewhat-Risky+155+220
Gordon is going to be behind the eightball in this fight. He’s scrappy, though. His record is dotted with wins he managed to steal from an opponent close to victory. Albazi should be better. We just don’t know how much better.
Carlos Felipe7800Serghei SpivacRisky+155+265
We don’t know much about Felipe outside of he’s thick and wants to knock you out. He’ll have to show he’s trained grappling despite a USADA suspension and only 8 pro fights. Spivac can be starched if he has to stand with you, though.
Luana Carolina7900Ariane LipskiRisky+100+675
Carolina went to war with Priscila Cachoeira and won. That measures toughness and output if nothing else. More than Lipski has been able to show in the UFC. Another fight at that pace puts the winner on the optimal.
Khadis Ibragimov7300Roman DolidzeRisky+137+265
Ibragimov has thrown caution to the wind and swung for the fences early in both of his UFC losses. That probably costs him yet again but it’s the kind of strategy you can’t ignore for DFS.
Rafael Fiziev7700Marc DiakieseRisky+137+340
Fiziev has good Muay Thai and that’s about it. He’ll have to answer the grappling Diakiese can utilize. If he does, a decision win could be in the cards.
Askar Askarov7400Alexandre PantojaRisky+170+535
Askarov is always live for a late submission. He’ll have to survive long enough to get there.
Davi Ramos7500Arman TsarukyanRisky+180+300
Ramos has world-class BJJ. He’s not likely to get to utilize much of it. If Tsarukyan makes a mistake it could be a window to Ramos by sub.
Nad Narimani7000Grant DawsonRisky+200+575
Narimani world need to fight a pretty perfect fight. Much of that would hinge on being able to out-grapple the bigger man.
Joel Alvarez6900Joe DuffyRisky+290+510
Any win for Alvarez at this price would be a value. There’s a chance Duffy is washed.

 

Cash Plays

(Sample lineup)

GPP Plays

(Sample lineup)

Best Bets

Favorite Bets: Pantoja -195, Hermansson +100

Favorite Props: Dawson ITD +175

Long Shot: Johns +350

Live Dogs: Benavidez, Johns, Gordon, Felipe, Carolina, Ibragimov, Fiziev

 

Stats & Picks

 

   
Deiveson FigueiredovsJoseph Benavidez
$9,000DFS Salary$7,200
Record: 18-1-0RecordRecord: 28-6-0
9 KO/TKO (50%)Knockouts 
6 SUBMISSIONS (33%)Subs 
-215Vegas Odds+195
5/10Lineup Pool5/10
   
Jack HermanssonvsKelvin Gastelum
$8,000DFS Salary$8,200
Record: 20-5-0RecordRecord: 16-5-0 (1 NC)
 Knockouts 
 Subs 
-105Vegas Odds-105
7/10Lineup Pool3/10
   
Marc DiakiesevsRafael Fiziev
$8,500DFS Salary$7,700
Record: 14-3-0RecordRecord: 7-1-0
 Knockouts 
 Subs 
-147Vegas Odds+137
5/10Lineup Pool4/10
   
Ariane LipskivsLuana Carolina
$8,300DFS Salary$7,900
Record: 12-5-0RecordRecord: 6-1-0
 Knockouts 
 Subs 
-120Vegas Odds+100
4/10Lineup Pool5/10
   
Alexandre PantojavsAskar Askarov
$8,800DFS Salary$7,400
Record: 22-4-0RecordRecord: 11-0-1
 Knockouts 
 Subs 
-185Vegas Odds+170
8/10Lineup Pool2/10
   
Roman DolidzevsKhadis Ibragimov
$8,900DFS Salary$7,300
Record: 6-0-0RecordRecord: 8-2-0
 Knockouts 
 Subs 
-147Vegas Odds+137
6/10Lineup Pool4/10
   
Grant DawsonvsNad Narimani
$9,200DFS Salary$7,000
Record: 15-1-0RecordRecord: 12-3-0
 Knockouts 
 Subs 
-220Vegas Odds+200
7/10Lineup Pool2/10
   
Joe DuffyvsJoel Alvarez
$9,300DFS Salary$6,900
Record: 16-4-0RecordRecord: 16-2-0
 Knockouts 
 Subs 
-350Vegas Odds+290
5/10Lineup Pool3/10
   
Brett JohnsvsMontel Jackson
$7,100DFS Salary$9,100
Record: 16-2-0RecordRecord: 9-1-0
 Knockouts 
 Subs 
+185Vegas Odds-200
5/10Lineup Pool6/10
   
Malcolm GordonvsAmir Albazi
$7,600DFS Salary$8,600
Record: 12-3-0RecordRecord: 12-1-0
 Knockouts4 KO/TKO (33%)
 Subs6 SUBMISSIONS (50%)
+155Vegas Odds-165
4/10Lineup Pool5/10
   
Davi RamosvsArman Tsarukyan
$7,500DFS Salary$8,700
Record: 10-3-0RecordRecord: 14-2-0
 Knockouts 
 Subs 
+180Vegas Odds-195
3/10Lineup Pool6/10
   
Carlos FelipevsSerghei Spivac
$7,800DFS Salary$8,400
Record: 8-0-0RecordRecord: 10-2-0
 Knockouts5 KO/TKO (36%)
 Subs5 SUBMISSIONS (36%)
+155Vegas Odds-175
4/10Lineup Pool4/10