MMA DFS Playbook: UFC Fight Night - Fight Island 2
Published: Jul 18, 2020
We’re back with our second Fight Island card of the week. We’re blessed with a title fight on a non-PPV card. Like the last card, picking dogs is a challenge here. There will be underdog winners, though. Stick to your guns and search out the best opportunities.
Main Event | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
Deiveson Figueiredo vs Joseph Benavidez | 9000/7200 | - | Stackability: Risky | -215/ +195 | -130/+565 |
This rematch is necessary for two reasons. Figueiredo missed weight in the first fight and wasn’t eligible to win the belt and Fig’s KO win came after a clash of heads. It’s still a fun fight. I just worry about Joe-B’s mental state. He’s sounded far from composed. He’ll need to be to fight the right gameplan of extending out Figueiredo into the late rounds where he’s more controllable. If he doesn’t, another KO loss is coming for Joe. Figueiredo’s slower pace makes this unstackable. | |||||
Expensive | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
Grant Dawson | 9200 | Nad Narimani | Somewhat-Safe | -220 | +175 |
Dawson is a handful for most opponents. He hits hard despite raw striking and can obviously tap you on the mat. Nad was lost in his last fight without the grappling edge. That in addition to the size he’s giving up to Dawson is a bad recipe. | |||||
Montel Jackson | 9100 | Brett Johns | Somewhat-Safe | -200 | +350 |
Montel has shot up the MMA ranks despite only being pro for a few years. He’s long, strong, and skilled all around. Johns is tough as nails and it should be a back and forth fight. Barring Jackson being held down on the mat, which doesn’t happen, it’s probably going his way in a very fast-paced fight. | |||||
Joe Duffy | 9300 | Joel Alvarez | Moderate | -350 | +175 |
We don’t know what version of Duffy is coming to fight here. He’s been a capable finisher but he’s also no-showed plenty of fights recently. He’s probably better than Alvarez but it’s a shaky play. | |||||
Roman Dolidze | 8900 | Khadis Ibragimov | Somewhat-Risky | -147 | +120 |
Dolidze is a pretty big unknown coming in 6-0 on the regional scene but also off of a USADA suspension. Ibragimov tends to beat himself if he doesn’t knock you out. He’s yet to KO a serious opponent. Dolidze should be able to do that. | |||||
Mid-Range | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
Jack Hermansson | 8000 | Kelvin Gastelum | Moderate | -105 | +385 |
We’re starting off with the coin flip fight in this tier since it’s a good one. Both guys need to get back in the win column. Jack the Joker has a clear advantage to me. He has nasty GnP and Gastellum can be taken down. When Hermansson gets his game plan going he’s DK gold. | |||||
Kelvin Gastelum | 8200 | Jack Hermansson | Somewhat-Risky | -105 | +245 |
The case for Gastelum would be his toughness. That usually leads to him surviving hairy spots to get a chance to knock down his opponent. He does crack hard. Coming of a knee surgery and lackluster performance prior to that has me fading him. | |||||
Alexandre Pantoja | 8800 | Askar Askarov | Somewhat-Safe | -185 | +275 |
Pantoja is just too lethal. He swings to take your head off and also has one of the best backpacks to RNCs in MMA. Askarov is good at surviving which could pour some water on the finish bonus we’re hoping for from Pantoja. I don’t expect him to see the final bel, though. | |||||
Amir Albazi | 8600 | Malcolm Gordon | Somewhat-Risky | -165 | +175 |
Albazi is making his UFC debut on short notice. That’s not always great but his wrestling heavy style is probably the best one to have in such a case. He’s been tagged on the feet before, so there’s some risk with the always game Gordon. A dominant performance could be incoming, though. | |||||
Arman Tsarukyan | 8700 | Davi Ramos | Moderate | -195 | +475 |
Tsarukyan is molded in the efficient Russian style. A sharp but cautious striker who has grappling chops. Ramos lost to the prototype of that in his last fight with Islam Makachev. The outcome is unlikely to change here. | |||||
Serghei Spivac | 8400 | Carlos Felipe | Risky | -175 | |
If Spivac gets the fight to the mat at any point Felipe is in big trouble. We saw what Spivac can do to a low-level grappler against Tuivasa. The most predictable outcome is Spivac rag-dolling Felipe for a couple of rounds, followed by a sub. | |||||
Marc Diakiese | 8500 | Rafael Fiziev | Somewhat-Risky | -147 | +300 |
Diakiese managed to get back in the win column recently. He’s a good, not great fighter. Fiziev mainly wants to fight standing so getting his grappling going could be big here. | |||||
Ariane Lipski | 8300 | Luana Carolina | Risky | -120 | +390 |
The only path to victory I see to clearly favor Lipski is grappling. They’re both long fighters but Carolina is a bit more wiry. That may allow Lipski to get a hold of her on the mat. | |||||
Pay-Downs | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
Brett Johns | 7100 | Montel Jackson | Moderate | +185 | +435 |
Relentless is the best way to describe Johns. He has to be. If he’s not putting you on your back he’s likely eating return fire. That’s trouble against Jackson. However, Ricky Simon was able to beat Jackson with a volume approach that Johns can mimic. | |||||
Malcolm Gordon | 7600 | Amir Albazi | Somewhat-Risky | +155 | +220 |
Gordon is going to be behind the eightball in this fight. He’s scrappy, though. His record is dotted with wins he managed to steal from an opponent close to victory. Albazi should be better. We just don’t know how much better. | |||||
Carlos Felipe | 7800 | Serghei Spivac | Risky | +155 | +265 |
We don’t know much about Felipe outside of he’s thick and wants to knock you out. He’ll have to show he’s trained grappling despite a USADA suspension and only 8 pro fights. Spivac can be starched if he has to stand with you, though. | |||||
Luana Carolina | 7900 | Ariane Lipski | Risky | +100 | +675 |
Carolina went to war with Priscila Cachoeira and won. That measures toughness and output if nothing else. More than Lipski has been able to show in the UFC. Another fight at that pace puts the winner on the optimal. | |||||
Khadis Ibragimov | 7300 | Roman Dolidze | Risky | +137 | +265 |
Ibragimov has thrown caution to the wind and swung for the fences early in both of his UFC losses. That probably costs him yet again but it’s the kind of strategy you can’t ignore for DFS. | |||||
Rafael Fiziev | 7700 | Marc Diakiese | Risky | +137 | +340 |
Fiziev has good Muay Thai and that’s about it. He’ll have to answer the grappling Diakiese can utilize. If he does, a decision win could be in the cards. | |||||
Askar Askarov | 7400 | Alexandre Pantoja | Risky | +170 | +535 |
Askarov is always live for a late submission. He’ll have to survive long enough to get there. | |||||
Davi Ramos | 7500 | Arman Tsarukyan | Risky | +180 | +300 |
Ramos has world-class BJJ. He’s not likely to get to utilize much of it. If Tsarukyan makes a mistake it could be a window to Ramos by sub. | |||||
Nad Narimani | 7000 | Grant Dawson | Risky | +200 | +575 |
Narimani world need to fight a pretty perfect fight. Much of that would hinge on being able to out-grapple the bigger man. | |||||
Joel Alvarez | 6900 | Joe Duffy | Risky | +290 | +510 |
Any win for Alvarez at this price would be a value. There’s a chance Duffy is washed. |
Cash Plays
(Sample lineup)
GPP Plays
(Sample lineup)
Best Bets
Favorite Bets: Pantoja -195, Hermansson +100
Favorite Props: Dawson ITD +175
Long Shot: Johns +350
Live Dogs: Benavidez, Johns, Gordon, Felipe, Carolina, Ibragimov, Fiziev
Stats & Picks
Deiveson Figueiredo | vs | Joseph Benavidez |
$9,000 | DFS Salary | $7,200 |
Record: 18-1-0 | Record | Record: 28-6-0 |
9 KO/TKO (50%) | Knockouts | |
6 SUBMISSIONS (33%) | Subs | |
-215 | Vegas Odds | +195 |
5/10 | Lineup Pool | 5/10 |
Jack Hermansson | vs | Kelvin Gastelum |
$8,000 | DFS Salary | $8,200 |
Record: 20-5-0 | Record | Record: 16-5-0 (1 NC) |
Knockouts | ||
Subs | ||
-105 | Vegas Odds | -105 |
7/10 | Lineup Pool | 3/10 |
Marc Diakiese | vs | Rafael Fiziev |
$8,500 | DFS Salary | $7,700 |
Record: 14-3-0 | Record | Record: 7-1-0 |
Knockouts | ||
Subs | ||
-147 | Vegas Odds | +137 |
5/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
Ariane Lipski | vs | Luana Carolina |
$8,300 | DFS Salary | $7,900 |
Record: 12-5-0 | Record | Record: 6-1-0 |
Knockouts | ||
Subs | ||
-120 | Vegas Odds | +100 |
4/10 | Lineup Pool | 5/10 |
Alexandre Pantoja | vs | Askar Askarov |
$8,800 | DFS Salary | $7,400 |
Record: 22-4-0 | Record | Record: 11-0-1 |
Knockouts | ||
Subs | ||
-185 | Vegas Odds | +170 |
8/10 | Lineup Pool | 2/10 |
Roman Dolidze | vs | Khadis Ibragimov |
$8,900 | DFS Salary | $7,300 |
Record: 6-0-0 | Record | Record: 8-2-0 |
Knockouts | ||
Subs | ||
-147 | Vegas Odds | +137 |
6/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
Grant Dawson | vs | Nad Narimani |
$9,200 | DFS Salary | $7,000 |
Record: 15-1-0 | Record | Record: 12-3-0 |
Knockouts | ||
Subs | ||
-220 | Vegas Odds | +200 |
7/10 | Lineup Pool | 2/10 |
Joe Duffy | vs | Joel Alvarez |
$9,300 | DFS Salary | $6,900 |
Record: 16-4-0 | Record | Record: 16-2-0 |
Knockouts | ||
Subs | ||
-350 | Vegas Odds | +290 |
5/10 | Lineup Pool | 3/10 |
Brett Johns | vs | Montel Jackson |
$7,100 | DFS Salary | $9,100 |
Record: 16-2-0 | Record | Record: 9-1-0 |
Knockouts | ||
Subs | ||
+185 | Vegas Odds | -200 |
5/10 | Lineup Pool | 6/10 |
Malcolm Gordon | vs | Amir Albazi |
$7,600 | DFS Salary | $8,600 |
Record: 12-3-0 | Record | Record: 12-1-0 |
Knockouts | 4 KO/TKO (33%) | |
Subs | 6 SUBMISSIONS (50%) | |
+155 | Vegas Odds | -165 |
4/10 | Lineup Pool | 5/10 |
Davi Ramos | vs | Arman Tsarukyan |
$7,500 | DFS Salary | $8,700 |
Record: 10-3-0 | Record | Record: 14-2-0 |
Knockouts | ||
Subs | ||
+180 | Vegas Odds | -195 |
3/10 | Lineup Pool | 6/10 |
Carlos Felipe | vs | Serghei Spivac |
$7,800 | DFS Salary | $8,400 |
Record: 8-0-0 | Record | Record: 10-2-0 |
Knockouts | 5 KO/TKO (36%) | |
Subs | 5 SUBMISSIONS (36%) | |
+155 | Vegas Odds | -175 |
4/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |