Dana White wasn’t kidding when he told us he’s burned through his stateside talent. Outside of an entertaining main event it will be tough sledding to make good picks. That’s actually a good thing since we’re down to 10 fights. Be cautious of chlaky fighters in GPPs.

 

Main Event
Fighter(s)PriceOpponentRiskOddsITD
Dustin Poirier vs Dan Hooker8700/7500-Stackability: Safe-215/ +195+100/+400
The main question here is what version of Poirier shows up? Does he have any lingering issue from surgery or feel sorry for himself after his title loss to Khabib? I doubt it. He’s a killer. At 31, he’s not young for the sport but he has some mileage left. Hooker has length and power but plenty of holes in his striking defense. Poirier pours it on until he very durable Hooker folds. It should go into the championship rounds with volume on both sides so it’s a safer cash stack. It could even enter the realm of usable GPP stack.
      
Expensive
Fighter(s)PriceOpponentRiskOddsITD
Brendan Allen9200Kyle DaukausSafe-290-125
At some point Allen will have some deficiencies exposed. This probably isn’t it. Daukaus has padded a nice record by fighting much smaller foes. Allen is within an inch in height and reach. Without that advantage the aggression of Allen should fold him up on the mat.
Luis Pena8900Khama WorthySomewhat-Safe-245+110
I’d love to feel more confident in Pena here. He’s the much better fighter, bigger, and has a solid chin. His decision making is what’s held him back so far. Moving camps to ATT should pay dividends there. Worthy isn’t hard to KO or sub if Pena can unlock some killer instinct from sparring with his new gym-mates.
Sean Woodson8800Kyle NelsonSomewhat-Safe-495#N/A
Woodsen is likely to have a much easier time with Erosa than his original opponent. Erosa has a shaky chin that is likely to give out at some point. There’s some risk that Woodsen can’t defend grappling, as we saw on his contender series comeback. Erosa isn’t the most effective grappler, however.
Mike Perry9000Mickey GallSomewhat-Risky-310-165
The erratic behavior Perry is exhibiting is major cause for concern. Gall is not a can, despite what everyone thinks of him. He can sub you and he has a little power in his wooden striking. Perry would need him to make repeated mistakes to find the early KO. Certainly possible but I’m fading at the price and likely ownership.
      
Mid-Range
Fighter(s)PriceOpponentRiskOddsITD
Youssef Zalal8000Jordan GriffinSomewhat-Safe-120+305
Zalal will be much faster then Griffin and likely hold a grappling edge. That has been a pretty big issue for Griffin to date. Without a finish Zalal could struggle to hit value but I have some interest in cash games.
Takashi Sato8400Jason WittSomewhat-Safe-255-125
I don’t expect Sato’s ownership to be quite as high given Woodsen will garner much of the late replacement ownership at just $400 dollars more. He’s a power puncher and not much else. That keeps him in play in GPPs. It’s KO or bust.
Kay Hansen8500Jinh Yu FreyModerate-175+300
Hansen will have her hands full with the veteran Frey but her grappling makes her one of the few in the mid-range with much upside. She’s young but both women are debuting in the UFC.
Jordan Griffin8200Youssef ZalalSomewhat-Risky+110+270
Griffin has snatched victory from the jaws of defeat plenty in his career. He’ll need that kind of comeback in this fight if it goes the way I expect. Without volume or grappling behind it that’s a hard path to value.
Maurice Greene8600Gian VillanteRisky-235-120
Greene is big and an ok athlete. That’s about it. He doesn’t have huge power and doesn’t wrestle very much. He could jab and kick his way to a decision. Villante would have to abandon his striking defense for enough strikes to land and hit value at $8600. *Seeing how out of shape Villante was at weigh-ins merits some more interest in Greene.
Philipe Lins8300Tanner BoserRisky-115+305
Lins was a finisher in the PFL. The competition there is a step down. Boser may not be much better than that level, however. Boser looks to avoid exchanges. If Lins somehow finds a way to land some power shots the fight could end soon after. There will be a ton of leverage available for a heavyweight puncher here.
      
Pay-Downs
Fighter(s)PriceOpponentRiskOddsITD
Mickey Gall7200Mike PerryModerate+280+530
I’m backing Gall in this one. That is a pretty contrarian pick. I laid out my doubts on Perry. Gall is also getting better each fight, even if he has a long way to go. There’s one way he loses and that’s to stand right in front of Perry. Gall has the length to avoid doing that enough of the fight. If it hits the mat Perry will be immediately at risk of being choked out.
Gian Villante7600Maurice GreeneSomewhat-Risky+215+470
Villante is a short heavyweight that was forced to fight at light heavyweight for a while. At 34 he’s going back up. That could improve his gas tank and give him a speed advantage over the plodding big men of the division. Greene is a decent athlete but I’m not certain he’s a better one than Villante. If Villante can avoid sitting at the edge of Greene’s range he can win this fight. *After weigh-ins it's clear Vilante is embracing heavyweight. He looks in terrible shape and I'd consider him a bigger risk now.
Khama Worthy7300Luis PenaRisky+225+300
Worthy will either KO Pena early or go down hard. My read ownership is that he’ll be the chalky dog play. I’ll roster a couple shares but it’s not worth the risk with no leverage in my eyes.
Julian Erosa6800Sean WoodsonRisky+430+995
Erosa would need to find some takedowns and work for a submission to win this fight. Those are Woodsen’s main liabilities as a long former boxer. Easier said than done against the speedy Woodeson who also showed good survival skills with Terrance McKinney on his back for 6 minutes of their fight.
Jinh Yu Frey7700Kay HansenRisky+165+975
Frey is a well-rounded striker and plus athlete. That’s enough to win against most in women’s MMA. Hansen will match her strength and could be trouble in the grappling department. She’s much greener than Frey, however. Vets tend to teach young fighter’s a lesson more than occasionally.
Tanner Boser7900Philipe LinsRisky+105+499
Boser would need Lins to chase him around the ring like a mad dog for 15 minutes to land enough volume to be worthwhile on DK. Outside of that he has the slight edge in winning a cautious decision as a known point-fighter.
Kyle Daukaus7000Brendan AllenRisky+260+450
I don’t think Daukaus will be the one to expose Allen but it’s not impossible. He throws decent hooks and can possibly cancel out Allen’s grappling with his own. The odds are stacked against it, though.
Jason Witt7800Takashi SatoRisky+235+529
Witt is your typical midwestern wrestler boxer. His striking sets up his takedowns or cage control. I’m picking Sato but I’m very nervous this could hit the mat and end in a Witt win via submission. Witt may not have the cardio on short notice to get it there late in the fight.

 

Cash Plays

(Sample lineup)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

GPP Plays

(Sample lineup)

Best Bets

Favorite Bets: Pena -230 (2 units), Allen -310 (units 2), Villante +185 (0.5 units)

Favorite Props: Poirier via T/KO +145 (1.5 units), Hansen via ITD +317 (0.5 units)

Long Shot: Gall +255 (1 unit)

Live Dogs: Hooker, Gall, Villante, Boser, Erosa, Worthy, Frey, Witt

Stats & Picks

 

   
Dustin PoiriervsDan Hooker
$8,700DFS Salary$7,500
Record: 25-6-0 (1 NC)RecordRecord: 20-8-0
12 KO/TKO (48%)Knockouts 
7 SUBMISSIONS (28%)Subs 
-225Vegas Odds+205
8/10Lineup Pool3/10
   
Mike PerryvsMickey Gall
$9,000DFS Salary$7,200
Record: 13-6-0RecordRecord: 6-2-0
 Knockouts 
 Subs 
-320Vegas Odds+290
3/10Lineup Pool5/10
   
Gian VillantevsMaurice Greene
$7,600DFS Salary$8,600
Record: 17-11-0RecordRecord: 8-5-0
10 KO/TKO (59%)Knockouts2 KO/TKO (25%)
2 SUBMISSIONS (12%)Subs4 SUBMISSIONS (50%)
+220Vegas Odds-240
2/10Lineup Pool6/10
   
Brendan AllenvsKyle Daukaus
$9,200DFS Salary$7,000
Record: 14-3-0RecordRecord: 9-0-0
 Knockouts5 KO/TKO (36%)
 Subs8 SUBMISSIONS (57%)
-275Vegas Odds+250
4/10Lineup Pool3/10
   
Philipe LinsvsTanner Boser
$8,300DFS Salary$7,900
Record: 14-4-0RecordRecord: 17-6-1
 Knockouts 
 Subs 
-110Vegas Odds+100
6/10Lineup Pool3/10
   
Sean WoodsonvsJulian Erosa
$8,800DFS Salary$6,800
Record: 7-0-0RecordRecord: 23-9-0
2 KO/TKO (29%)Knockouts 
1 SUBMISSIONS (14%)Subs 
-500Vegas Odds+435
8/10Lineup Pool2/10
   
Luis PenavsKhama Worthy
$8,900DFS Salary$7,300
Record: 8-2-0RecordRecord: 15-6-0
 Knockouts 
 Subs 
-235Vegas Odds+215
7/10Lineup Pool3/10
   
Takashi SatovsJason Witt
$8,400DFS Salary$7,800
Record: 15-3-0RecordRecord: 17-5-0
10 KO/TKO (67%)Knockouts 
2 SUBMISSIONS (13%)Subs 
-240Vegas Odds+220
4/10Lineup Pool4/10
   
Kay HansenvsJinh Yu Frey
$8,500DFS Salary$7,700
Record: 6-3-0RecordRecord: 9-4-0
 Knockouts 
 Subs 
-185Vegas Odds+170
6/10Lineup Pool2/10
   
Jordan GriffinvsYoussef Zalal
$8,200DFS Salary$8,000
Record: 18-7-0RecordRecord: 8-2-0
 Knockouts 
 Subs 
+120Vegas Odds-130
4/10Lineup Pool4/10