The UFC is burning through it’s available talent after an initial boon of fighters raring to get in the cage in May. This card is the result of that. Still, DFS doesn’t care about fighter quality and there’s money on the line. We have three late replacements (Cifers, Adashev, Lopez). That only adds to a dearth of desirable underdogs. It’s just a hard week to build lineups. Come off the top range and get as many mid-priced fighters in as you can. Update: Jordan Griffin vs. Darrick Minner has been pulled off the card. Minner pulled out due to health concerns over cutting weight.

 

 

Main Event
Fighter(s)PriceOpponentRiskOddsITD
Jessica Eye vs Cynthia Calvillo8300/7900-Stackability: Moderate+120/ -130+665/+260
The narrative around this fight is that Eye struggles against wrestlers and Cavillo is one. That ignores a few important factors. First, Eye is strong for 125 as someone who’s fought at 135 (where most of that wrestling dominance happened) and Cavillo is coming up from 115. Second, Cavillo is a better grappler than wrestler. It’s not like she’s firing blast doubles all round. Lastly, Cavillo has a shoddy gas tank that will be put to the test against a bigger fighter. I don’t see that all working out well for her. Cavillo is always live for a submission but that’s the hardest way to win a fight. If she doesn’t get one early she’ll likely get outworked by Eye the rest of the way.
      
Expensive
Fighter(s)PriceOpponentRiskOddsITD
Merab Dvalishvili9200Gustavo LopezSafe-800+415
His opponent has changed but the plan is the same for Merad. Wrestle them up and hit them when they’re stuck in between. He puts up takedown numbers few can. A must play in cash for that.
Julia Avila9300Gina MazanySomewhat-Safe-575-130
Avila is a great athlete and very aggressive in the cage. Mazany won’t be able to withstand that pressure for long. The question becomes, can she outscore Merab with the wrestling volume he brings. Avila needs a late first or late second round finish to pack in enough stats.
Anthony Ivy9000Christian AguileraSomewhat-Safe-185-135
We never love to play a fighter in the $9K range that’s making their UFC debut. Ivy’s unproven at this level but not untested. He’s got a quality body of work on the regional scene. He also packs a walloping right hand. This is a gift matchup for signing to fight Meerschaert late last week but then getting pulled when not needed.
Jordan Griffin8900Darrick MinnerRisky#N/A#N/A
Griffin has looked good in his two UFC losses and looked awful in his UFC win. That makes him a fade for me at $8900. He also fought Minner in the LFA and lost the first round before being handed an armbar by a gassed Minner. That said, Minner always gasses and gets caught against fighters able to survive his early flurry.
      
Mid-Range
Fighter(s)PriceOpponentRiskOddsITD
Marvin Vettori8800Karl RobersonSomewhat-Safe-220+285
I love Vettori as a bet, but less so as a DK play. His pace can be methodical at times. He has some wrestling but would need an early submission to exceed value. Otherwise he just needs to fight his fight and stay away from Roberson’s dangerous short power shots.
Andre Fili8600Charles JourdainSomewhat-Safe-220+315
Fili is too good of a veteran fighter to have much trouble with the flashy Jourdain. If he’s smart he’ll mix in some takedowns and that would boost his DK potential. Another guy that’s a better bet than DFS play, however.
Mariya Agapova8700Hannah CifersModerate-335+195
This really boils down to Agapova having a 7” height and 8” reach advantage over a late replacement coming up from a division she was already on the small side for without any wrestling to speak of. I like Cifers and her spirit but she’s getting chewed up here unless she finds a way inside, which is unlikely.
Tyson Nam8000Ryan BenoitSomewhat-Risky-130+290
Nam gets a wildcard with Adashev here. With only 4 MMA fights (3-1) we don’t know much about him. He was also 13-3 as a kickboxer so he’s no greenhorn. He lost his debut via choke but clearly worked his BJJ showing some grappling in his next fights. That’s enough for me to question if Nam will use much wrestling. Adashev’s also aggressive on the feet. That’s exactly what Nam needs from an opponent.
Kevin Aguilar8400Charles RosaSomewhat-Risky-185#N/A
It felt like Aguilar was about to make some waves in the UFC before running into Dan Ige and Zubaira Tukhugov for his second and third career losses. Those are fine names to lose to. Rosa would not be. Bryce Mitchell just showed exactly what you do with Rosa’s spastic style. Dump him and beat him up. Aguilar can do that if he’s focussed.
Jordan Espinosa8500Mark De La RosaRisky-167+375
Espinosa is levels better than De La Rosa as an athlete. That won’t matter if he leaves his neck out to get subbed for the third time in the UFC. Given that Espinosa can win the fight everywhere but the mat you would think he’ll be extra careful. That leads to a low volume decision however. Definitely not worth the juice.
      
Pay-Downs
Fighter(s)PriceOpponentRiskOddsITD
Darrick Minner7300Jordan GriffinSomewhat-Risky#N/A#N/A
Minner goes all out at the start of the fight, often to his own detriment. He doesn’t have the endurance to survive the second round most of the time. He’s also a bit sloppy so he needs to finish opponents early before getting into trouble. That’s not a great cash play but it’s all you can ask for in a GPP. He gave Griffin plenty of trouble in their first fight. An early finish is not outside of the possible outcomes.
Mark De La Rosa7700Jordan EspinosaSomewhat-Risky+157+415
De La Rosa needs a mistake from Espinosa to win this one via submission. Espinosa has made that mistake in two of three UFC bouts. It’s going to be chalky so I don’t love the play. Without an early finish there won’t be enough stats to hit value.
Karl Roberson7400Marvin VettoriSomewhat-Risky+200+520
Roberson almost took out Glover Texiera with short elbows and did take out Ryan Spann with them, so I may be underrating him here. Plus athleticism and good reaction speed have taken him this far. Those should start to fall apart against the solid technique and bullish attack of Vettori. He could always land another flush elbow, though.
Charles Rosa7800Kevin AguilarSomewhat-Risky+170+158
The volume of strikes is Rosa’s main draw. He can grapple some, too. I’m just so sour on a guy that can be dominated for 15 minutes the way Bryce Mitchell shellacked him. That said, Aguillar isn’t a grappler by trade. If Rosa can dance his way to some points it may be a worthwhile cash play.
Hannah Cifers7500Mariya AgapovaRisky+305+520
Cifers would need to find a way to get inside the much longer fighter and hurt Agapova. And she’d need to do it for most of two rounds. That’s a tall order. I don’t love her in cash games either. She could get stopped via ground and pound if it hits the mat.
Charles Jourdain7600Andre FiliRisky+200+305
Jourdain will lose most of this fight. He’ll needs KO to take home the win. He has the slick striking to do it if an opportunity presents itself. Fili is a tough draw, though.
Zarrukh Adashev7700Jordan EspinosaRisky+120+280
Being oddly priced at $7700 as a late replacement takes some of the wind out of the sails as a DK play. I could live with Adashev’s KO or bust chances sub $7000. This makes him purely a MME inclusion for the larger number of lineup players.
Christian Aguilera7200Anthony IvyRisky+170+316
Aguilera is mostly a can. He’s here to lose. If you get sloppy he can hurt you. You have to get real sloppy, though.

 

 

 


GPP Plays

(Sample lineup)

 

Cash Plays

(Sample lineup)

 

Favorite Bets: Vettori -235, Fili -235, Ivy -185

Favorite Props: Eye via DEC +165, Avila/Mazany UNDER 2.5 rounds -140

Long Shot: Minner ITD +265

Live Dogs: Calvillo, Minner, De La Rosa, Rosa, Cifers, Adashev

Stats & Picks:

 

   
Jessica EyevsCynthia Calvillo
$8,300DFS Salary$7,900
Record: 15-7-0 (1 NC)RecordRecord: 8-1-1
 Knockouts2 KO/TKO (25%)
 Subs3 SUBMISSIONS (38%)
+120Vegas Odds-130
5/10Lineup Pool4/10
   
Karl RobersonvsMarvin Vettori
$7,400DFS Salary$8,800
Record: 9-2-0RecordRecord: 14-4-1
2 KO/TKO (22%)Knockouts0 KO/TKO (0%)
4 SUBMISSIONS (44%)Subs0 SUBMISSIONS (0%)
+200Vegas Odds-220
2/10Lineup Pool8/10
   
Charles RosavsKevin Aguilar
$7,800DFS Salary$8,400
Record: 12-4-0RecordRecord: 17-3-0
3 KO/TKO (25%)Knockouts2 KO/TKO (14%)
8 SUBMISSIONS (67%)Subs8 SUBMISSIONS (57%)
+170Vegas Odds-185
9/10Lineup Pool1/10
   
Andre FilivsCharles Jourdain
$8,600DFS Salary$7,600
Record: 20-7-0RecordRecord: 10-2-0
10 KO/TKO (59%)Knockouts9 KO/TKO (45%)
1 SUBMISSIONS (6%)Subs3 SUBMISSIONS (15%)
-220Vegas Odds+200
6/10Lineup Pool3/10
   
Jordan EspinosavsMark De La Rosa
$8,500DFS Salary$7,700
Record: 14-7-0 (1 NC)RecordRecord: 11-4-0
7 KO/TKO (70%)Knockouts2 KO/TKO (14%)
3 SUBMISSIONS (30%)Subs7 SUBMISSIONS (50%)
-167Vegas Odds+157
4/10Lineup Pool4/10
   
Mariya AgapovavsHannah Cifers
$8,700DFS Salary$7,500
Record: 8-1-0RecordRecord: 10-5-0
 Knockouts3 KO/TKO (38%)
 Subs3 SUBMISSIONS (38%)
-335Vegas Odds+305
6/10Lineup Pool3/10
   
Merab DvalishvilivsGustavo Lopez
$9,200DFS Salary#N/A
Record: 10-4-0RecordRecord: 11-4-0
5 KO/TKO (50%)Knockouts 
0 SUBMISSIONS (0%)Subs 
-800Vegas Odds+635
4/10Lineup Pool5/10
   
Julia AvilavsGina Mazany
$9,300DFS Salary$6,900
Record: 7-1-0RecordRecord: 6-3-0
5 KO/TKO (45%)Knockouts3 KO/TKO (43%)
5 SUBMISSIONS (45%)Subs1 SUBMISSIONS (14%)
-575Vegas Odds+485
8/10Lineup Pool1/10
   
Tyson Nam*vsZarrukh Adashev
$8,000DFS Salary$7,700
Record: 18-11-1RecordRecord: 3-1-0
2 KO/TKO (33%)Knockouts10 KO/TKO (56%)
2 SUBMISSIONS (33%)Subs1 SUBMISSIONS (6%)
-130Vegas Odds+120
4/10Lineup Pool4/10
   
Anthony IvyvsChristian Aguilera
$9,000DFS Salary$7,200
Record: 8-2-0RecordRecord: 13-6-0
2 KO/TKO (67%)Knockouts10 KO/TKO (77%)
0 SUBMISSIONS (0%)Subs0 SUBMISSIONS (0%)
-185Vegas Odds+170
5/10Lineup Pool5/10
  
 

*Tyson Nam/Zarrukh Adashev pick has been updated as of Saturday at 12:00pm ET*