The UFC is heading to Korea this week. That means a start time in the middle of the night Friday/Saturday morning, travel blues for many fighters, and possible hometown judging. Some fighters are also likely to gas with the tough fight week abroad. Be cautious with your bankroll on the year’s final card but don’t be afraid to take some chances in the lineups you do play.
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD | BreakDown | |
Main Event | Frankie Edgar vs Chan Sung Jung | 7200/9000 | - | Stackability: Safe | +145/ -165 | +520/+165 | Edgar seems to have figured out how to keep father time at arms reach. That may only be in appearance, however. He was smoked by a jiu-jitsu guy on the feet and chased Max Holloway around the ring for 5 rounds looking more competitive than it was. Jung has real power and is likely to find the KO if he can solve Edgar's wrestle-boxing. |
Expensive | Ciryl Gane | 9600 | Tanner Boser | Safe | -640 | -135 | The risk on Gane is that Boser is skilled at slowing fights and making things ugly. My gut says Gane's athleticism is enough to blast through Boser's shenanigans and still find a finish in the first two rounds. |
Alexandre Pantoja | 9100 | Matt Schnell | Somewhat-Safe | -220 | +185 | Pantoja is levels above Schnell. He can take a punch and answer. Plus his grappling is excellent. Look out for his backpack RNC fo a win via SUB. | |
SeungWoo Choi | 9300 | Suman Mokhtarian | Somewhat-Safe | -280 | +115 | Choi had some promise entering the UFC but has gone 0-2. The bet here is against Mokhtarian, who padded his record with cans and doesn't belong anywhere near a UFC octagon. | |
Kyung Ho Kang | 9200 | Liu Pingyuan | Somewhat-Safe | -250 | +175 | Kang's wrestling should carry the day against a subpar Chinese product in Pingyuan. A finish may be tough to find but he can hit value with volume wrestling. | |
Dooho Choi | 9400 | Charles Jourdain | Moderate | -295 | +115 | I'm fading Choi. His last two losses look worse after a two-year layoff. Jourdain isn't going to lay down, either. | |
Mid-Range | Aleksandar Rakic | 8600 | Volkan Oezdemir | Somewhat-Safe | -200 | +155 | Many believe Rakic is the future at 205. This is a fight that puts him in the title picture. He's better then Oezdemir everywhere. It's a good bet to finish ITD, as well. |
Omar Morales | 8800 | Dong Hyun Ma | Somewhat-Safe | -200 | -105 | Another power striker gets to feed on Ma's carcass. It's hard to see a different result than the last two beatings Ma took. Morales is a 34-year-old debutant, so it's not without risk. | |
Marc-Andre Barriault | 8500 | Junyong Park | Moderate | -125 | +360 | Barriault relies on grit and has some thump in his strikes. He probably needs a finish to win, however. | |
Raoni Barcelos | 8400 | Said Nurmagomedov | Moderate | +100 | +245 | It's shame Barcelos didn't make it to the UFC earlier in his career. He would have had a title shot in his future. Here he's facing a tough young fighter. He could have a thing or two to teach the younger man, though. | |
Mike Rodriguez | 8300 | Da-Un Jung | Moderate | -120 | +185 | Rodriguez would be priced higher on neutral ground. Jung showed nothing besides durability in his UFC debut. Rodriguez's length should lead to a win if he can keep a safe lead. | |
Heili Alateng | 8000 | Ryan Benoit | Somewhat-Risky | +100 | +435 | Alateng relies on wrestling. That's a tough path to victory against Benoit. Benoit has been inconsistent, though. | |
Ryan Benoit | 8200 | Heili Alateng | Somewhat-Risky | -120 | +280 | Benoit is another Westerner that would be a favorite outside of Asia. He's probably more than Alateng can handle even in hostile ground. | |
Pay-Downs | Said Nurmagomedov | 7800 | Raoni Barcelos | Moderate | -110 | +525 | Despite the last name, he's a much different fighter than Khabib. Wicked kicks are his signature. He also grapples well and has that Russian toughness. There's some odds value here, as well. |
Volkan Oezdemir | 7600 | Aleksandar Rakic | Moderate | +125 | +240 | Oezdemir is always live for a flash knockout. Rakic has had his chin checked previously. | |
Da-Un Jung | 7900 | Da-Un Jung | Moderate | +110 | +165 | Jung might sneak a hometown decision through if he can land enough answers to Rodriguez offense. | |
Charles Jourdain | 6800 | Dooho Choi | Moderate | +265 | +418 | Jourdain could be live if he can survive the early going. He's got the better gas tank, provided the travel didn't drain it. | |
Matt Schnell | 7100 | Alexandre Pantoja | Somewhat-Risky | +200 | +650 | There is a chance Schnell has found the next level and just hasn't had the chance to show it. It's a dirt cheap price for a guy that could be in a slugfest. Pantoja is willing to engage if nothing else. | |
Amanda Lemos | 7300 | Miranda Granger | Risky | +160 | +550 | Lemos is making a return from a two-year USADA suspension. I assume that's why it's lined so wide because the fighters are close in skill. That definitely calls for mixing her in to GPP lineups. | |
Dong Hyun Ma | 7400 | Omar Morales | Risky | +170 | +400 | Should Ma decide to focus on the grappling he could stay in the fight and not flat on the mat. | |
Junyong Park | 7700 | Marc-Andre Barriault | Risky | +115 | +520 | Someone's getting shafted by decision on this card. Park could be the one to benefit. |
Cash Plays:
(Sample lineup)
GPP Plays:
(Sample lineup)
Vegas Plays:
Favorite Bets: Pantoja -210, Jung -165, Kang -250
Favorite Props: Rakic ITD +175
Live Dogs: Oezdemir, Lemos, Jourdain, Park, Jung
Stats & Picks:
Frankie Edgar | vs | Chan Sung Jung |
$7,200 | DFS Salary | $9,000 |
Record: 22-7-1 | Record | Record: 15-5-0 |
7 KO/TKO (30%) | Knockouts | 5 KO/TKO (33%) |
4 SUBMISSIONS (17%) | Subs | 8 SUBMISSIONS (53%) |
+145 | Vegas Odds | -165 |
3/10 | Lineup Pool | 7/10 |
Volkan Oezdemir | vs | Aleksandar Rakic |
$7,600 | DFS Salary | $8,600 |
Record: 16-4-0 | Record | Record: 12-1-0 |
12 KO/TKO (75%) | Knockouts | 9 KO/TKO (75%) |
1 SUBMISSIONS (6%) | Subs | 1 SUBMISSIONS (8%) |
+125 | Vegas Odds | -145 |
4/10 | Lineup Pool | 6/10 |
Dooho Choi | vs | Charles Jourdain |
$9,400 | DFS Salary | $6,800 |
Record: 14-3-0 | Record | Record: 9-2-0 |
11 KO/TKO (79%) | Knockouts | 6 KO/TKO (67%) |
1 SUBMISSIONS (7%) | Subs | 3 SUBMISSIONS (33%) |
-295 | Vegas Odds | +265 |
4/10 | Lineup Pool | 3/10 |
Da-Un Jung | vs | Mike Rodriguez |
$7,900 | DFS Salary | $8,300 |
Record: 12-2-0 | Record | Record: 10-3-0 (1 NC) |
9 KO/TKO (75%) | Knockouts | 8 KO/TKO (80%) |
2 SUBMISSIONS (17%) | Subs | 2 SUBMISSIONS (20%) |
+110 | Vegas Odds | -120 |
3/10 | Lineup Pool | 6/10 |
Junyong Park | vs | Marc-Andre Barriault |
$7,700 | DFS Salary | $8,500 |
Record: 10-4-0 | Record | Record: 11-3-0 |
5 KO/TKO (50%) | Knockouts | 8 KO/TKO (73%) |
3 SUBMISSIONS (30%) | Subs | 0 SUBMISSIONS (0%) |
+115 | Vegas Odds | -125 |
4/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
Kyung Ho Kang | vs | Liu Pingyuan |
$9,200 | DFS Salary | $7,000 |
Record: 16-8-0 (1 NC) | Record | Record: 13-6-0 |
2 KO/TKO (13%) | Knockouts | 4 KO/TKO (27%) |
11 SUBMISSIONS (69%) | Subs | 6 SUBMISSIONS (40%) |
-250 | Vegas Odds | +210 |
7/10 | Lineup Pool | 2/10 |
Ciryl Gane | vs | Tanner Boser |
$9,600 | DFS Salary | $6,600 |
Record: 5-0-0 | Record | Record: 17-5-1 |
2 KO/TKO (40%) | Knockouts | 8 KO/TKO (47%) |
3 SUBMISSIONS (60%) | Subs | 2 SUBMISSIONS (12%) |
-640 | Vegas Odds | +470 |
8/10 | Lineup Pool | 2/10 |
SeungWoo Choi | vs | Suman Mokhtarian |
$9,300 | DFS Salary | $6,900 |
Record: 7-3-0 | Record | Record: 8-1-0 |
5 KO/TKO (71%) | Knockouts | 1 KO/TKO (13%) |
0 SUBMISSIONS (0%) | Subs | 6 SUBMISSIONS (75%) |
-280 | Vegas Odds | +240 |
6/10 | Lineup Pool | 2/10 |
Dong Hyun Ma | vs | Omar Morales |
$7,400 | DFS Salary | $8,800 |
Record: 16-10-3 | Record | Record: 8-0-0 |
6 KO/TKO (38%) | Knockouts | 2 KO/TKO (25%) |
6 SUBMISSIONS (38%) | Subs | 4 SUBMISSIONS (50%) |
+170 | Vegas Odds | -200 |
3/10 | Lineup Pool | 6/10 |
Alexandre Pantoja | vs | Matt Schnell |
$9,100 | DFS Salary | $7,100 |
Record: 21-4-0 | Record | Record: 14-4-0 |
7 KO/TKO (33%) | Knockouts | 2 KO/TKO (14%) |
8 SUBMISSIONS (38%) | Subs | 8 SUBMISSIONS (57%) |
-220 | Vegas Odds | +200 |
7/10 | Lineup Pool | 3/10 |
Raoni Barcelos | vs | Said Nurmagomedov |
$8,400 | DFS Salary | $7,800 |
Record: 14-1-0 | Record | Record: 13-1-0 |
8 KO/TKO (57%) | Knockouts | 3 KO/TKO (23%) |
2 SUBMISSIONS (14%) | Subs | 3 SUBMISSIONS (23%) |
+100 | Vegas Odds | -110 |
5/10 | Lineup Pool | 5/10 |
Miranda Granger | vs | Amanda Lemos |
$8,900 | DFS Salary | $7,300 |
Record: 7-0-0 | Record | Record: 6-1-1 |
1 KO/TKO (14%) | Knockouts | 5 KO/TKO (83%) |
5 SUBMISSIONS (71%) | Subs | 1 SUBMISSIONS (17%) |
-185 | Vegas Odds | +160 |
3/10 | Lineup Pool | 6/10 |
Heili Alateng | vs | Ryan Benoit |
$8,000 | DFS Salary | $8,200 |
Record: 13-7-1 | Record | Record: 10-5-0 |
4 KO/TKO (31%) | Knockouts | 8 KO/TKO (80%) |
3 SUBMISSIONS (23%) | Subs | 1 SUBMISSIONS (10%) |
+100 | Vegas Odds | -120 |
3/10 | Lineup Pool | 5/10 |