The UFC is heading to Korea this week. That means a start time in the middle of the night Friday/Saturday morning, travel blues for many fighters, and possible hometown judging. Some fighters are also likely to gas with the tough fight week abroad. Be cautious with your bankroll on the year’s final card but don’t be afraid to take some chances in the lineups you do play.

 Fighter(s)PriceOpponentRiskOddsITDBreakDown
Main Event
Frankie Edgar vs Chan Sung Jung
7200/9000
-
Stackability: Safe
+145/ -165
+520/+165
Edgar seems to have figured out how to keep father time at arms reach. That may only be in appearance, however. He was smoked by a jiu-jitsu guy on the feet and chased Max Holloway around the ring for 5 rounds looking more competitive than it was. Jung has real power and is likely to find the KO if he can solve Edgar's wrestle-boxing.
        
Expensive
Ciryl Gane9600Tanner BoserSafe-640-135The risk on Gane is that Boser is skilled at slowing fights and making things ugly. My gut says Gane's athleticism is enough to blast through Boser's shenanigans and still find a finish in the first two rounds.
Alexandre Pantoja9100Matt SchnellSomewhat-Safe-220+185Pantoja is levels above Schnell. He can take a punch and answer. Plus his grappling is excellent. Look out for his backpack RNC fo a win via SUB.
SeungWoo Choi9300Suman MokhtarianSomewhat-Safe-280+115Choi had some promise entering the UFC but has gone 0-2. The bet here is against Mokhtarian, who padded his record with cans and doesn't belong anywhere near a UFC octagon.
Kyung Ho Kang9200Liu PingyuanSomewhat-Safe-250+175Kang's wrestling should carry the day against a subpar Chinese product in Pingyuan. A finish may be tough to find but he can hit value with volume wrestling.
Dooho Choi9400Charles JourdainModerate-295+115I'm fading Choi. His last two losses look worse after a two-year layoff. Jourdain isn't going to lay down, either.
        
Mid-Range
Aleksandar Rakic8600Volkan OezdemirSomewhat-Safe-200+155Many believe Rakic is the future at 205. This is a fight that puts him in the title picture. He's better then Oezdemir everywhere. It's a good bet to finish ITD, as well.
Omar Morales8800Dong Hyun MaSomewhat-Safe-200-105Another power striker gets to feed on Ma's carcass. It's hard to see a different result than the last two beatings Ma took. Morales is a 34-year-old debutant, so it's not without risk.
Marc-Andre Barriault8500Junyong ParkModerate-125+360Barriault relies on grit and has some thump in his strikes. He probably needs a finish to win, however.
Raoni Barcelos8400Said NurmagomedovModerate+100+245It's shame Barcelos didn't make it to the UFC earlier in his career. He would have had a title shot in his future. Here he's facing a tough young fighter. He could have a thing or two to teach the younger man, though.
Mike Rodriguez8300Da-Un JungModerate-120+185Rodriguez would be priced higher on neutral ground. Jung showed nothing besides durability in his UFC debut. Rodriguez's length should lead to a win if he can keep a safe lead.
Heili Alateng8000Ryan BenoitSomewhat-Risky+100+435Alateng relies on wrestling. That's a tough path to victory against Benoit. Benoit has been inconsistent, though.
Ryan Benoit8200Heili AlatengSomewhat-Risky-120+280Benoit is another Westerner that would be a favorite outside of Asia. He's probably more than Alateng can handle even in hostile ground.
        
Pay-Downs
Said Nurmagomedov7800Raoni BarcelosModerate-110+525Despite the last name, he's a much different fighter than Khabib. Wicked kicks are his signature. He also grapples well and has that Russian toughness. There's some odds value here, as well.
Volkan Oezdemir7600Aleksandar RakicModerate+125+240Oezdemir is always live for a flash knockout. Rakic has had his chin checked previously.
Da-Un Jung7900Da-Un JungModerate+110+165Jung might sneak a hometown decision through if he can land enough answers to Rodriguez offense.
Charles Jourdain6800Dooho ChoiModerate+265+418Jourdain could be live if he can survive the early going. He's got the better gas tank, provided the travel didn't drain it.
Matt Schnell7100Alexandre PantojaSomewhat-Risky+200+650There is a chance Schnell has found the next level and just hasn't had the chance to show it. It's a dirt cheap price for a guy that could be in a slugfest. Pantoja is willing to engage if nothing else.
Amanda Lemos7300Miranda GrangerRisky+160+550Lemos is making a return from a two-year USADA suspension. I assume that's why it's lined so wide because the fighters are close in skill. That definitely calls for mixing her in to GPP lineups.
Dong Hyun Ma7400Omar MoralesRisky+170+400Should Ma decide to focus on the grappling he could stay in the fight and not flat on the mat.
Junyong Park7700Marc-Andre BarriaultRisky+115+520Someone's getting shafted by decision on this card. Park could be the one to benefit.

Cash Plays: 

(Sample lineup)

GPP Plays: 

(Sample lineup)

Vegas Plays:

Favorite Bets: Pantoja -210, Jung -165, Kang -250

Favorite Props: Rakic ITD +175

Live Dogs: Oezdemir, Lemos, Jourdain, Park, Jung

Stats & Picks:

Frankie EdgarvsChan Sung Jung
$7,200DFS Salary$9,000
Record: 22-7-1RecordRecord: 15-5-0
7 KO/TKO (30%)Knockouts5 KO/TKO (33%)
4 SUBMISSIONS (17%)Subs8 SUBMISSIONS (53%)
+145Vegas Odds-165
3/10Lineup Pool7/10
   
Volkan OezdemirvsAleksandar Rakic
$7,600DFS Salary$8,600
Record: 16-4-0RecordRecord: 12-1-0
12 KO/TKO (75%)Knockouts9 KO/TKO (75%)
1 SUBMISSIONS (6%)Subs1 SUBMISSIONS (8%)
+125Vegas Odds-145
4/10Lineup Pool6/10
   
Dooho ChoivsCharles Jourdain
$9,400DFS Salary$6,800
Record: 14-3-0RecordRecord: 9-2-0
11 KO/TKO (79%)Knockouts6 KO/TKO (67%)
1 SUBMISSIONS (7%)Subs3 SUBMISSIONS (33%)
-295Vegas Odds+265
4/10Lineup Pool3/10
   
Da-Un JungvsMike Rodriguez
$7,900DFS Salary$8,300
Record: 12-2-0RecordRecord: 10-3-0 (1 NC)
9 KO/TKO (75%)Knockouts8 KO/TKO (80%)
2 SUBMISSIONS (17%)Subs2 SUBMISSIONS (20%)
+110Vegas Odds-120
3/10Lineup Pool6/10
   
Junyong ParkvsMarc-Andre Barriault
$7,700DFS Salary$8,500
Record: 10-4-0RecordRecord: 11-3-0
5 KO/TKO (50%)Knockouts8 KO/TKO (73%)
3 SUBMISSIONS (30%)Subs0 SUBMISSIONS (0%)
+115Vegas Odds-125
4/10Lineup Pool4/10
   
Kyung Ho KangvsLiu Pingyuan
$9,200DFS Salary$7,000
Record: 16-8-0 (1 NC)RecordRecord: 13-6-0
2 KO/TKO (13%)Knockouts4 KO/TKO (27%)
11 SUBMISSIONS (69%)Subs6 SUBMISSIONS (40%)
-250Vegas Odds+210
7/10Lineup Pool2/10
   
Ciryl GanevsTanner Boser
$9,600DFS Salary$6,600
Record: 5-0-0RecordRecord: 17-5-1
2 KO/TKO (40%)Knockouts8 KO/TKO (47%)
3 SUBMISSIONS (60%)Subs2 SUBMISSIONS (12%)
-640Vegas Odds+470
8/10Lineup Pool2/10
   
SeungWoo ChoivsSuman Mokhtarian
$9,300DFS Salary$6,900
Record: 7-3-0RecordRecord: 8-1-0
5 KO/TKO (71%)Knockouts1 KO/TKO (13%)
0 SUBMISSIONS (0%)Subs6 SUBMISSIONS (75%)
-280Vegas Odds+240
6/10Lineup Pool2/10
   
Dong Hyun MavsOmar Morales
$7,400DFS Salary$8,800
Record: 16-10-3RecordRecord: 8-0-0
6 KO/TKO (38%)Knockouts2 KO/TKO (25%)
6 SUBMISSIONS (38%)Subs4 SUBMISSIONS (50%)
+170Vegas Odds-200
3/10Lineup Pool6/10
   
Alexandre PantojavsMatt Schnell
$9,100DFS Salary$7,100
Record: 21-4-0RecordRecord: 14-4-0
7 KO/TKO (33%)Knockouts2 KO/TKO (14%)
8 SUBMISSIONS (38%)Subs8 SUBMISSIONS (57%)
-220Vegas Odds+200
7/10Lineup Pool3/10
   
Raoni BarcelosvsSaid Nurmagomedov
$8,400DFS Salary$7,800
Record: 14-1-0RecordRecord: 13-1-0
8 KO/TKO (57%)Knockouts3 KO/TKO (23%)
2 SUBMISSIONS (14%)Subs3 SUBMISSIONS (23%)
+100Vegas Odds-110
5/10Lineup Pool5/10
   
Miranda GrangervsAmanda Lemos
$8,900DFS Salary$7,300
Record: 7-0-0RecordRecord: 6-1-1
1 KO/TKO (14%)Knockouts5 KO/TKO (83%)
5 SUBMISSIONS (71%)Subs1 SUBMISSIONS (17%)
-185Vegas Odds+160
3/10Lineup Pool6/10
   
Heili AlatengvsRyan Benoit
$8,000DFS Salary$8,200
Record: 13-7-1RecordRecord: 10-5-0
4 KO/TKO (31%)Knockouts8 KO/TKO (80%)
3 SUBMISSIONS (23%)Subs1 SUBMISSIONS (10%)
+100Vegas Odds-120
3/10Lineup Pool5/10