Welcome back fight fans and grinders. I hope this two-week layoff has left you as thirsty to watch someone get punched in the face as it has myself. UFC DC has more live dogs than we’re used to on a Fight Night card so that should be fun. There are heavyweights in action along with other hard hitters so some KOs are likely. Let’s dig in.
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD | BreakDown | |
Main Event | Alistair Overeem vs Jairzinho Rozenstruik | 8300/7900 | - | Stackability: Safe | -105/ -105 | +125/+110 | Old meets new in this heavyweight clash. Jair has that one punch sleeping power and we've seen Overeem take his share of canvas naps. It won't be as easy as his prior fights, however. Reem is one of the best at utilizing a gameplan based on keeping his chin unchecked. My take is that approach works for a round or two but eventually Jair gets something home and ends it spectacularly. There's also a good chance we find out if Rozenstruik has improved his ground game. That make Overeem live for a submission, too. |
Expensive | Makhmud Muradov | 9400 | Trevor Smith | Safe | -410 | +140 | A bit of a set up spot for the Mayweather client. Muradov's showed he's not taking things lightly in the past, though. Good output with plus power make him a justified favorite. |
Tim Means | 9000 | Thiago Alves | Somewhat-Safe | -255 | +140 | I'd feel better about Means if he weren't coming off of a broken leg suffered via KO. Still, the Dirtybird will get to do what he does best and throw with volume at a fairly stationary Alves. | |
Joe Solecki | 9300 | Matt Wiman | Somewhat-Safe | -330 | +175 | I can copy paste the breakdown for every Wiman opponent. He was good but an enigma in his best days. They are well past. I just can't see him finding any of that old magic. Solacki has the power to make him re-retire. | |
Billy Quarantillo | 9200 | Jacob Kilburn | Moderate | -310 | +115 | In a meeting of newcomers, it's not wise to spend up. It should be a fun fight with plenty of back and forth striking, though. You may need the winner to hit in GPPs. | |
Virna Jandiroba | 9100 | Mallory Martin | Moderate | -280 | +265 | Virna is a good wreslter without all that much explosiveness. She likely grinds out a win here. That's a tough sell at 9100. Her BJJ is plus so it's possible she ends things ITD. | |
Mid-Range | Song Yadong | 8900 | Cody Stamann | Somewhat-Safe | -200 | +155 | This is Song's toughest test to date. He has the tools, and the power, to get it done. I'd be more comfortable at a better price but he is a deserving favorite. Without the KO he may bust on DK, though. |
Marina Rodriguez | 8400 | Cynthia Calvillo | Somewhat-Safe | -125 | +375 | Length and high output are Marina's calling cards. Those can take you pretty far in women's MMA, as Joanna has shown. This line would be bigger if Rodriguez were a more well known name so it's a nice spot. She just needs to keep her butt off the mat. | |
Aspen Ladd | 8700 | Yana Kunitskaya | Moderate | -150 | +220 | Ladd generally prospers from being more physical than her opponent. She's hit the point where her competition won't be as far away from her athleticism, however. She'll need to have tightened up her striking game to trade with Yana. | |
Rob Font | 8500 | Ricky Simon | Moderate | -135 | +260 | Font's calling card is a big right hand. Simon ran into trouble when pressed in the Faber fight. This one comes down to who can be the more aggresive man. | |
Ben Rothwell | 8600 | Stefan Struve | Moderate | -140 | +195 | The other Big Ben is looking to right the ship after his most recent UFC return. He's older, slower, and in worse shape, so that's a challenge. He'll always have great power and Struve has one of the worst cases of tall-man defense we've ever seen. A KO at 8600 works even at low volume. | |
Bryce Mitchell | 8000 | Matt Sayles | Somewhat-Risky | +105 | +340 | Mitchell is gritty as hell and has some slick jiu-jitsu. If he can stay out of trouble on the feet he's the better bet for me. | |
Matt Sayles | 8200 | Bryce Mitchell | Somewhat-Risky | -115 | +325 | I was more interested in Sayles before missing weight. In what shapes up to be a dog fight you have to worry about his gas tank now. He does have the much crisper striking albeit with wholes in his defensive wrestling. | |
Matt Sayles | |||||||
Pay-Downs | Cody Stamann | 7300 | Song Yadong | Moderate | +170 | +620 | Stamann has that warrior spirit, outperforming his talents regularly. He'll need it against one of China's best prospects. If he leans on wrestling it's a potentially big score at the price. |
Ricky Simon | 7700 | Rob Font | Moderate | +125 | +575 | The shine is off of Ricky after dropping a fight to the older Urijiah Faber. His skill set is still the same and his tenacity is likely there as well. He'll always be a better underdog. | |
Stefan Struve | 7600 | Ben Rothwell | Somewhat-Risky | +120 | +250 | I've quit guessing at the outcome of Struve fights. This feels like a winnable fight for him which likely means he gets spectacularly knocked out. | |
Yana Kunitskaya | 7500 | Aspen Ladd | Somewhat-Risky | +140 | +600 | It's not a reach to say Yana could outstrike Ladd the way prior opponents have. Ladd's tough weight cut does not help her chin. | |
Cynthia Calvillo | 7800 | Marina Rodriguez | Somewhat-Risky | +115 | +325 | Calvillo has shown wrestling chops and Marina struggled to get off the mat big time in prior fights. She came back because she wasn't finished but that's never a given when another fighter is on top of you. | |
Jacob Kilburn | 7000 | Billy Quarantillo | Risky | +280 | +515 | When two unknown's get into a slugfest the outcome if far from predicatable. A win at $7K breaks the slate. |
Cash Plays:
(Sample lineup)
GPP Plays:
(Sample lineup)
Vegas Plays:
Favorite Bets: Rodriguez -125, Kunitskaya +140, Simon +130
Favorite Props: Mitchell ITD +340, Rozenstruik ITD +110, Jandiroba ITD +265
Live Dogs: Rozenstruik, Struve, Kumitskaya, Simon, Mitchell
Stats & Picks:
Alistair Overeem | vs | Jairzinho Rozenstruik |
$8,300 | DFS Salary | $7,900 |
Record: 45-17-0 (1 NC) | Record | Record: 9-0-0 |
23 KO/TKO (51%) | Knockouts | 8 KO/TKO (89%) |
17 SUBMISSIONS (38%) | Subs | 0 SUBMISSIONS (0%) |
-105 | Vegas Odds | -105 |
4/10 | Lineup Pool | 6/10 |
Marina Rodriguez | vs | Cynthia Calvillo |
$8,400 | DFS Salary | $7,800 |
Record: 12-0-1 | Record | Record: 8-1-0 |
5 KO/TKO (42%) | Knockouts | 2 KO/TKO (25%) |
1 SUBMISSIONS (8%) | Subs | 3 SUBMISSIONS (38%) |
-125 | Vegas Odds | +115 |
6/10 | Lineup Pool | 3/10 |
Stefan Struve | vs | Ben Rothwell |
$7,600 | DFS Salary | $8,600 |
Record: 33-11-0 | Record | Record: 36-12-0 |
8 KO/TKO (28%) | Knockouts | 27 KO/TKO (75%) |
18 SUBMISSIONS (62%) | Subs | 6 SUBMISSIONS (17%) |
+120 | Vegas Odds | -140 |
7/10 | Lineup Pool | 3/10 |
Aspen Ladd | vs | Yana Kunitskaya |
$8,700 | DFS Salary | $7,500 |
Record: 8-1-0 | Record | Record: 12-4-0 (1 NC) |
5 KO/TKO (63%) | Knockouts | 7 KO/TKO (58%) |
1 SUBMISSIONS (13%) | Subs | 1 SUBMISSIONS (8%) |
-150 | Vegas Odds | +140 |
4/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
Cody Stamann | vs | Song Yadong |
$7,300 | DFS Salary | $8,900 |
Record: 18-2-0 | Record | Record: 15-4-0 (1 NC) |
6 KO/TKO (33%) | Knockouts | 5 KO/TKO (36%) |
2 SUBMISSIONS (11%) | Subs | 3 SUBMISSIONS (21%) |
+170 | Vegas Odds | -200 |
3/10 | Lineup Pool | 6/10 |
Rob Font | vs | Ricky Simon |
$8,500 | DFS Salary | $7,700 |
Record: 16-4-0 | Record | Record: 15-2-0 |
7 KO/TKO (44%) | Knockouts | 5 KO/TKO (33%) |
4 SUBMISSIONS (25%) | Subs | 2 SUBMISSIONS (13%) |
-135 | Vegas Odds | +125 |
4/10 | Lineup Pool | 5/10 |
Thiago Alves | vs | Tim Means |
$7,200 | DFS Salary | $9,000 |
Record: 28-14-0 | Record | Record: 28-11-1 (1 NC) |
13 KO/TKO (57%) | Knockouts | 19 KO/TKO (68%) |
1 SUBMISSIONS (4%) | Subs | 4 SUBMISSIONS (14%) |
+235 | Vegas Odds | -255 |
2/10 | Lineup Pool | 7/10 |
Billy Quarantillo | vs | Jacob Kilburn |
$9,200 | DFS Salary | $7,000 |
Record: 12-2-0 | Record | Record: 8-2-0 |
5 KO/TKO (42%) | Knockouts | 4 KO/TKO (50%) |
4 SUBMISSIONS (33%) | Subs | 2 SUBMISSIONS (25%) |
-310 | Vegas Odds | +280 |
6/10 | Lineup Pool | 3/10 |
Bryce Mitchell | vs | Matt Sayles |
$8,000 | DFS Salary | $8,200 |
Record: 11-1-0 | Record | Record: 8-2-0 |
0 KO/TKO (0%) | Knockouts | 6 KO/TKO (75%) |
8 SUBMISSIONS (73%) | Subs | 1 SUBMISSIONS (13%) |
+105 | Vegas Odds | -115 |
6/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
Joe Solecki | vs | Matt Wiman |
$9,300 | DFS Salary | $6,900 |
Record: 8-2-0 | Record | Record: 16-8-0 |
1 KO/TKO (13%) | Knockouts | 4 KO/TKO (25%) |
6 SUBMISSIONS (75%) | Subs | 5 SUBMISSIONS (31%) |
-330 | Vegas Odds | +300 |
7/10 | Lineup Pool | 3/10 |
Virna Jandiroba | vs | Mallory Martin |
$9,100 | DFS Salary | $7,100 |
Record: 14-1-0 | Record | Record: 6-2-0 |
0 KO/TKO (0%) | Knockouts | 2 KO/TKO (33%) |
11 SUBMISSIONS (79%) | Subs | 1 SUBMISSIONS (17%) |
-280 | Vegas Odds | +240 |
6/10 | Lineup Pool | 2/10 |
Makhmud Muradov | vs | Trevor Smith |
$9,400 | DFS Salary | $6,800 |
Record: 23-6-0 | Record | Record: 15-9-0 |
15 KO/TKO (65%) | Knockouts | 1 KO/TKO (7%) |
3 SUBMISSIONS (13%) | Subs | 9 SUBMISSIONS (60%) |
-410 | Vegas Odds | +365 |
7/10 | Lineup Pool | 2/10 |