We head south of the border for this UFC card in Mexico City. It’s at a higher elevation than Denver by 1,000 feet so we may see some fighters gas. On the whole, people are aware of it and train accordingly, however. The fights themselves are close tilts with little safety for your salary. The best play in these spots is to employ leverage plays and hope they hit.
| Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD | BreakDown | |
Main Event | Yair Rodriguez vs Jeremy Stephens | 8200/8000 | - | Stackability: Safe | -105/ -115 | +240/+145 | This is lined as a coin flip because it absolutely is. Stephens puts people to sleep when he can catch them. The other half of the time he's a mad dog chasing his tail and at risk of being KO'd himself. Rodriguez is fast and flashy but entirely hittable. All in all, it's a fun fight and likely to put up stats for the winner. An early KO adds some stacking risk but it's a decent play in cash to secure the winner. |
Expensive | Irene Aldana | 9400 | Vanessa Melo | Safe | -570 | +170 | Aldana is in her home country against a late replacement. The odds reflect it. Her length is a challenge for most fighters and could be here. If she can't get off clean she'll have a hard time hitting value on DK. There's a case to fade her as the place people look to start a lineup this week. |
| Sergio Pettis | 9300 | Tyson Nam | Somewhat-Safe | -320 | +605 | Pettis comes from a fighting family and a good camp. He was rocketing up the division before a recent skid against some of the top contenders. This is a winnable fight. He tends to win decisions, which isn't great at this price. | |
| Sijara Eubanks | 9100 | Bethe Correia | Somewhat-Safe | -120 | +185 | Eubanks is a better fighter than her record indicates. She's well-rounded and powerful. This smells like a set up fight against a name in Correia who's on the way out. | |
| Claudio Puelles | 9000 | Marcos Mariano | Somewhat-Safe | -300 | -155 | Fire takedowns and grind. That's the way to win against Mariano. It shouldn't be a challenge for Puelles. | |
Mid-Range | Askar Askarov | 8800 | Brandon Moreno | Somewhat-Safe | -155 | +170 | The Russian makes his UFC debut in Mexico, which is odd considering the UFC was just in Russia and Abu Dhabi. Still, Askarov is as seasoned as a debutant can be and a good submission artist. Moreno will struggle to match his grappling. |
| Jose Quinonez | 8700 | Carlos Huachin | Somewhat-Safe | -135 | +330 | Quinonez is a smart fighter and outperforms his opponent when the skill gap isn't wide. That's likely to be the case here. For his DK score to be usable he needs to up the aggression some. Huachin comes to bang so it's possible the pressure coming back Jose's way. | |
| Kyle Nelson | 8600 | Polo Reyes | Moderate | -122 | +145 | The blueprint to beating Reyes is clear: wreslte him and avoid exchanges. Nelson is capable of that. Will he be able to execute it? Maybe. He likes to come out of the gate fast and that could be trouble. | |
| Alexa Grasso | 8400 | Carla Esparza | Moderate | -125 | +500 | Grasso's got good boxing and is a good enough athlete to give Esparza trouble taking her down. It's a big step up, though. Esparza isn't easy to finish either, so Grasso's upside is capped. | |
| Martin Bravo | 8100 | Steven Peterson | Moderate | -105 | +335 | Bravo is the better boxer and Peterson's striking defense is his face. There's a chance the durable Peterson also has issues absorbing his usual amount of punishment at the elevation. A KO is in play. | |
| Steven Peterson | 8100 | Martin Bravo | Somewhat-Risky | -105 | +455 | Peterson is a maniac, though. He will walk through any punishment to try and land his own strikes. Bravo can be KO'd. The better angle is probably to mix in his solid wrestling, though we haven't seen Peterson emphasize it enough. | |
| Vinicius Moreira | 8300 | Paul Craig | Risky | -115 | +180 | If Moreira can get on top of Craig it's probably a matter of time before he subs him. He also throws heavy punches (often leaving himself open) which can connect with the hittable Craig. | |
Pay-Downs | Carla Esparza | 7800 | Alexa Grasso | Moderate | +115 | +575 | Esparza goes as far as her grappling takes her in a fight. Grasso has been improved lately but Carla's takedowns are something she hasn't faced before. This is the Carla Esparza life cycle: beat modest competition, lose to better fighters, move down and repeat. |
| Paul Craig | 7900 | Vinicius Moreira | Moderate | +105 | +160 | If Craig can find his range, even the lowest level striking can KO Moreira and his atrocious tall man defense. Craig tends to make poor decisions in fights, though. | |
| Polo Reyes | 7600 | Kyle Nelson | Somewhat-Risky | +112 | +190 | If you stand toe to toe with Reyes you might get knocked out. Reyes hasn't looked as strong since getting popped for PEDs, though. He has a fighter's mentality and always has a punchers chance. | |
| Ariane Carnelossi | 7700 | Angela Hill | Somewhat-Risky | +130 | +620 | The Brazilian is going to be stronger the Angie Hill and Hill struggles when people grind on her. Not that it's a slam dunk but she's one of the few appealing dogs. | |
| Carlos Huachin | 7500 | Jose Quinonez | Risky | +125 | +320 | The breakdown for this one goes the same as Nelson-Reyes. Huachin can scrap, like most Peruvian fighters we see. He's likely to slow down and get out grappled in the later rounds. In the first round his power makes him a live dog, though. | |
| Brandon Moreno | 7400 | Askar Askarov | Risky | +145 | +350 | This breakdown is also pretty much identical to Nelson-Reyes. Moreno is probably going to get out grappled and may not survive the final bell. He's still an exciting fighter at times and has some notable finishes. | |
| Bethe Correia | 7100 | Sijara Eubanks | Risky | +110 | +700 | Correia is aggressive and pretty strong. Her technique is crap but sometimes aggression can carry a fight. | |
| Marcos Mariano | 7200 | Marcos Mariano | Risky | +270 | +575 | His only real shot is probably a head kick KO. | |
| Tyson Nam | 6900 | Sergio Pettis | Risky | +290 | +425 | Nam is a gamer and has had some pretty exciting fights in his non-UFC career. Pettis is on a 1-3 run, so it could be closer than the odds indicate. |
| GPP Example Lineup | ||
| Fighter | Opponent | Salary |
| Rodriguez | Stephens | $8,200 |
| Bravo | Peterson | $8,100 |
| Craig | Moreira | $7,900 |
| Puelles | Mariano | $9,000 |
| Quinonez | Huachin | $8,700 |
| Carnelossi | Hill | $7,700 |
| Cash Example Lineup | ||
| Fighter | Opponent | Salary |
| Rodriguez | Stephens | $8,200 |
| Stephens | Rodriguez | $8,000 |
| Askarov | Moreno | $8,800 |
| Esparza | Grasso | $7,800 |
| Peterson | Bravo | $8,100 |
| Eubanks | Correia | $9,100 |
Vegas Plays
Favorite Bets: Esparza +105, Eubanks -290
Favorite Props: Askarov ITD +170, Craig ITD +160
Live Dogs: Esparza, Craig, Reyes, Huachin, Carnelossi
Stats & Picks
| Yair Rodriguez | vs | Jeremy Stephens |
| $8,200 | DFS Salary | $8,000 |
| Record: 12-2-0 | Record | Record: 28-16-0 |
| 4 KO/TKO (36%) | Knockouts | 19 KO/TKO (68%) |
| 2 SUBMISSIONS (18%) | Subs | 2 SUBMISSIONS (7%) |
| -105 | Vegas Odds | -115 |
| 5/10 | Lineup Pool | 5/10 |
| Carla Esparza | vs | Alexa Grasso |
| $7,800 | DFS Salary | $8,400 |
| Record: 15-6-0 | Record | Record: 11-2-0 |
| 3 KO/TKO (21%) | Knockouts | 4 KO/TKO (36%) |
| 4 SUBMISSIONS (29%) | Subs | 0 SUBMISSIONS (0%) |
| +115 | Vegas Odds | -125 |
| 5/10 | Lineup Pool | 3/10 |
| Brandon Moreno | vs | Askar Askarov |
| $7,400 | DFS Salary | $8,800 |
| Record: 15-5-0 | Record | Record: 10-0-0 |
| 2 KO/TKO (13%) | Knockouts | 3 KO/TKO (30%) |
| 10 SUBMISSIONS (67%) | Subs | 7 SUBMISSIONS (70%) |
| +145 | Vegas Odds | -155 |
| 2/10 | Lineup Pool | 7/10 |
| Irene Aldana | vs | Vanessa Melo |
| $9,400 | DFS Salary | $6,800 |
| Record: 10-5-0 | Record | Record: 9-5-0 |
| 5 KO/TKO (50%) | Knockouts | 0 KO/TKO (0%) |
| 3 SUBMISSIONS (30%) | Subs | 2 SUBMISSIONS (20%) |
| -570 | Vegas Odds | +480 |
| 7/10 | Lineup Pool | 2/10 |
| Martin Bravo | vs | Steven Peterson |
| $8,100 | DFS Salary | $8,100 |
| Record: 12-2-0 | Record | Record: 17-9-0 |
| 4 KO/TKO (36%) | Knockouts | 4 KO/TKO (24%) |
| 5 SUBMISSIONS (45%) | Subs | 8 SUBMISSIONS (47%) |
| -105 | Vegas Odds | -105 |
| 5/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
| Jose Quinonez | vs | Carlos Huachin |
| $8,700 | DFS Salary | $7,500 |
| Record: 8-3-0 | Record | Record: 10-4-1 |
| 2 KO/TKO (29%) | Knockouts | 8 KO/TKO (80%) |
| 1 SUBMISSIONS (14%) | Subs | 2 SUBMISSIONS (20%) |
| -135 | Vegas Odds | +125 |
| 4/10 | Lineup Pool | 6/10 |
| Polo Reyes | vs | Kyle Nelson |
| $7,600 | DFS Salary | $8,600 |
| Record: 8-7-0 | Record | Record: 12-3-0 |
| 6 KO/TKO (75%) | Knockouts | 4 KO/TKO (33%) |
| 1 SUBMISSIONS (13%) | Subs | 4 SUBMISSIONS (33%) |
| +112 | Vegas Odds | -122 |
| 3/10 | Lineup Pool | 6/10 |
| Ariane Carnelossi | vs | Angela Hill |
| $7,700 | DFS Salary | $8,500 |
| Record: 12-1-0 | Record | Record: 9-7-0 |
| 8 KO/TKO (67%) | Knockouts | 3 KO/TKO (33%) |
| 1 SUBMISSIONS (8%) | Subs | 0 SUBMISSIONS (0%) |
| +130 | Vegas Odds | -140 |
| 4/10 | Lineup Pool | 3/10 |
| Sergio Pettis | vs | Tyson Nam |
| $9,300 | DFS Salary | $6,900 |
| Record: 17-5-0 | Record | Record: 18-9-1 |
| 3 KO/TKO (18%) | Knockouts | 10 KO/TKO (56%) |
| 3 SUBMISSIONS (18%) | Subs | 1 SUBMISSIONS (6%) |
| -320 | Vegas Odds | +290 |
| 6/10 | Lineup Pool | 2/10 |
| Vinicius Moreira | vs | Paul Craig |
| $8,300 | DFS Salary | $7,900 |
| Record: 9-3-0 | Record | Record: 11-4-0 |
| 1 KO/TKO (11%) | Knockouts | 1 KO/TKO (9%) |
| 8 SUBMISSIONS (89%) | Subs | 10 SUBMISSIONS (91%) |
| -115 | Vegas Odds | +105 |
| 4/10 | Lineup Pool | 5/10 |
| Sijara Eubanks | vs | Bethe Correia |
| $9,100 | DFS Salary | $7,100 |
| Record: 5-3-0 | Record | Record: 10-4-1 |
| 2 KO/TKO (50%) | Knockouts | 2 KO/TKO (20%) |
| 0 SUBMISSIONS (0%) | Subs | 0 SUBMISSIONS (0%) |
| -120 | Vegas Odds | +110 |
| 7/10 | Lineup Pool | 3/10 |
| Claudio Puelles | vs | Marcos Mariano |
| $9,000 | DFS Salary | $7,200 |
| Record: 9-2-0 | Record | Record: 6-5-0 |
| 2 KO/TKO (25%) | Knockouts | 2 KO/TKO (33%) |
| 5 SUBMISSIONS (63%) | Subs | 1 SUBMISSIONS (17%) |
| -300 | Vegas Odds | +270 |
| 6/10 | Lineup Pool | 2/10 |