We’re back overseas for this Fight Night card taking place in Stockholm, Sweden. It’s an odd card with some local fighters mixed with some other lesser known Euro fighters. Mind your P’s and Q’s and don’t take on unnecessary risk. The Main Event is a good one, though. Alexander Gustafsson gets a chance to right the ship against human punching bag Anthony Smith. Remember, lineups lock Saturday morning.
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD | BreakDown | |
Main Event | Alexander Gustafsson vs Anthony Smith | 9300/6900 | - | Stackability: Safe | -335/ 275 | 127/315 | Gus is just too good. He's a devastating striker and a capable wrestler. Plus this is a home game for him. Smith does have pretty incredible durability, so he could hang around and make a decent stack in cash. I'm not overly worried about Gus being finished by other opponents lately. They were elite 205ers. Smith always has a punchers chance, I just can't see him getting the better of any exchange. |
Expensive | Leonardo Santos | 9200 | Stevie Ray | Safe | -200 | +165 | The man can grapple. He's been out of the Octagon for a few years and is now 39, however. Still, his elite skill is Ray's biggest weakness. It's hard not seeing Santos locking in a sub at some point. |
Aleksandar Rakic | 8900 | Jimi Manuwa | Somewhat-Safe | -190 | +109 | It's hard to know how good Rakic is with a limited sample of quality competition. He's an excellent athlete and has good pace stats. The concern that he's cihiny after his last fight is somewhat overblown but still a concern against someone who hits like Manuwa. Rakic's style is just an awful match-up for Manuwa, however. | |
Tonya Evinger | 9000 | Lina Lansberg | Moderate | -275 | +195 | Evinger should be able to bully Lansberg, who's struggled to defend wrestling. It's not a gimme with Evinger being 37 and in her opponents home country, though. She'll need to clearly win to avoid any scorecard confusion. That makes her a tough play at $9K. | |
Damir Hadzovic | 9100 | Christos Giagos | Somewhat-Risky | -175 | +165 | There's a bit too much momentum on Hadzovic after beating a non-juiced Polo Reyes on home turf last fight. Still, he's a heavy hitter with some wrestling in the bag, too. Giagos hasn't been great in the UFC and that's where the big line is coming from. If you aren't careful you don't last long in the ring with Damir. | |
Mid-Range | Chris Fishgold | 8300 | Makwan Amirkhani | Moderate | -110 | +212 | The best thing about Fishgold is his pace. He's a tornado of strikes and takedowns. That's an awful fit for Amirkhani and his subdued grappling. There's a chance the aggression gets Fishgold in trouble but at $8300 it's too good to resist. He could easily break 100 DK points in a win. |
Sung Bin Jo | 8800 | Daniel Teymur | Moderate | -145 | +110 | Jo doesn't have outstanding wrestling, but it might be good enough. Teymur can't grapple and it shows in every fight. The newcomer Jo has his fair share of question marks, however. | |
Darko Stosic | 8700 | Devin Clark | Moderate | +100 | +155 | The Cro Cop protege brings much of his mentor's game to bear. He's a bit stiff but hits like a truck. That's trouble for Clark, who almost certainly has concussion issue after some heavy knockdowns. Stosic also has the strength to take away that advantage which Clark usually enjoys. I'm betting on a highlight reel KO for Stosic. | |
Sergey Khandozhko | 8800 | Rostem Akman | Moderate | -155 | +150 | A solid wrestler with some power who's getting a late replacement. It's always scary when you don't know what kind of opponent a fighter's getting. Still, Sergey can finish and might be on the optimal lineup. | |
Makwan Amirkhani | 7900 | Chris Fishgold | Somewhat-Risky | -110 | +309 | Amirikhani can control fights with his wrestling. If Fishgold's aggression isn't enough to overwhelm Mr. Finland he could cruise to a top heavy decision. | |
Pay-Downs | Christos Giagos | 7100 | Damir Hadzovic | Moderate | +155 | +685 | Giagos successes in the UFC have all come behind his wrestling. That's been an issue for Hadzovic in prior fights. Giagos does need to avoid the heavy hands of Damir but makes a nice dog play on a card without many. |
Jimi Manuwa | 7300 | Aleksandar Rakic | Somewhat-Risky | +165 | +237 | Manuwa will always have a punchers chance. He's coming off of a savage war with Thiago Santos and may not be able to take much more punishment from a crisp striker in Rakic. He could also be over-owned with the "Rakic is chniny" narrative. | |
Daniel Teymur | 7400 | Sung Bin Jo | Somewhat-Risky | +125 | +225 | Will we finally see this Teymur get a win in the UFC. He can strike but hasn't been able to stay off his back long enough to showcase it. It's an interesting gamble, given that Jo is an unknown and Teymur might be able to stuff his wrestling. | |
Stevie Ray | 7000 | Leonardo Santos | Somewhat-Risky | +170 | +689 | Ray is a gamer. If he can keep Santos off his back he could win a striking decision. It's not the worst play at $7K against a 39-year-old coming off a long layoff. | |
Devin Clark | 7500 | Darko Stosic | Risky | -120 | +290 | Clark comes at you shot out of a canon. He has to. His defense is bad. Like, really bad. Plus he likely has a good amount of CTE and could be dropped by any clean shot. If he gets on Stosic early and wears the thick fighter down it could go his way, though. The line has flipped in Clark's favor. | |
Rostem Akman | 7400 | Sergey Khandozhko | High Risk | +135 | +274 | Akman has more experience than his 5-0 record indicates, with a 13-2 amateur career. He wings shots and that's always a threat. Khandozko is making his own UFC debut, so there's a chance he's just as raw. | |
Toss Up | Nick Hein vs Frank Camacho | 8200/8000 | - | Stackability: Risky | -105/ -115 | 555/330 | I'd like Camacho better with a full camp. He's still a warrior and will make it a tough fight for Hein. The best days are in the rearview for "Sargent" Hein, but he's still a capable boxer. His low pace makes it tough to win decisions these days. That makes it not stackable for me, despite Camacho willingness to go to war. |
Cash Plays: Gustafsson/Smith stack, Santos, Camacho, Khandozko
(Sample lineup)
GPP Plays: Rakic, Stosic, Fishgold, Jo or Teymur, Hadzovic or Giagos
(Sample lineup)
Favorite Bets: Giagos +150, Rakic -190, Santos -200
Favorite Props: Gustafsson ITD +127, Fishgold ITD +212, Stosic ITD +155
Live Dogs: Giagos, Amirkhani, Teymur, Belluardo, Akman, Clark
Alexander Gustafsson | vs | Anthony Smith |
$9,300 | DFS Salary | $6,900 |
Record: 18-5-0 | Record | Record: 31-14-0 |
11 KO/TKO (61%) | Knockouts | 17 KO/TKO (55%) |
3 SUBMISSIONS (17%) | Subs | 11 SUBMISSIONS (35%) |
-335 | Vegas Odds | +275 |
8/10 | Lineup Pool | 2/10 |
Volkan Oezdemir | vs | Ilir Latifi |
$8,400 | DFS Salary | $7,800 |
Record: 15-4-0 | Record | Record: 15-6-0 (1 NC) |
11 KO/TKO (73%) | Knockouts | 6 KO/TKO (43%) |
1 SUBMISSIONS (7%) | Subs | 4 SUBMISSIONS (29%) |
-120 | Vegas Odds | +100 |
6/10 | Lineup Pool | 3/10 |
Jimi Manuwa | vs | Aleksandar Rakic |
$7,300 | DFS Salary | $8,900 |
Record: 17-5-0 | Record | Record: 11-1-0 |
15 KO/TKO (88%) | Knockouts | 8 KO/TKO (73%) |
1 SUBMISSIONS (6%) | Subs | 1 SUBMISSIONS (9%) |
+165 | Vegas Odds | -190 |
3/10 | Lineup Pool | 6/10 |
Makwan Amirkhani | vs | Chris Fishgold |
$7,900 | DFS Salary | $8,300 |
Record: 14-3-0 | Record | Record: 18-2-1 |
1 KO/TKO (7%) | Knockouts | 2 KO/TKO (11%) |
9 SUBMISSIONS (64%) | Subs | 13 SUBMISSIONS (72%) |
-110 | Vegas Odds | -110 |
4/10 | Lineup Pool | 5/10 |
Damir Hadzovic | vs | Christos Giagos |
$9,100 | DFS Salary | $7,100 |
Record: 13-4-0 | Record | Record: 16-7-0 |
7 KO/TKO (54%) | Knockouts | 7 KO/TKO (44%) |
3 SUBMISSIONS (23%) | Subs | 3 SUBMISSIONS (19%) |
-175 | Vegas Odds | +155 |
3/10 | Lineup Pool | 5/10 |
Daniel Teymur | vs | Sung Bin Jo |
$7,400 | DFS Salary | $8,800 |
Record: 6-3-0 | Record | Record: 9-0-0 |
3 KO/TKO (50%) | Knockouts | 5 KO/TKO (56%) |
3 SUBMISSIONS (50%) | Subs | 4 SUBMISSIONS (44%) |
+125 | Vegas Odds | -145 |
3/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
Tonya Evinger | vs | Lina Lansberg |
$9,000 | DFS Salary | $7,200 |
Record: 19-7-0 (1 NC) | Record | Record: 8-4-0 |
8 KO/TKO (42%) | Knockouts | 4 KO/TKO (50%) |
7 SUBMISSIONS (37%) | Subs | 0 SUBMISSIONS (0%) |
-275 | Vegas Odds | +235 |
5/10 | Lineup Pool | 3/10 |
Stevie Ray | vs | Leonardo Santos |
$7,000 | DFS Salary | $9,200 |
Record: 22-8-0 | Record | Record: 16-4-1 |
6 KO/TKO (27%) | Knockouts | 2 KO/TKO (13%) |
8 SUBMISSIONS (36%) | Subs | 9 SUBMISSIONS (56%) |
+170 | Vegas Odds | -200 |
3/10 | Lineup Pool | 6/10 |
Nick Hein | vs | Frank Camacho |
$8,200 | DFS Salary | $8,000 |
Record: 14-4-0 (1 NC) | Record | Record: 21-7-0 |
1 KO/TKO (7%) | Knockouts | 16 KO/TKO (76%) |
4 SUBMISSIONS (29%) | Subs | 2 SUBMISSIONS (10%) |
-105 | Vegas Odds | -115 |
2/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
Bea Malecki | vs | Duda Santana |
$7,600 | DFS Salary | $8,600 |
Record: 2-0-0 | Record | Record: 3-0-0 |
1 KO/TKO (50%) | Knockouts | 1 KO/TKO (33%) |
1 SUBMISSIONS (50%) | Subs | 0 SUBMISSIONS (0%) |
-125 | Vegas Odds | +105 |
2/10 | Lineup Pool | 3/10 |
Darko Stosic | vs | Devin Clark |
$8,700 | DFS Salary | $7,500 |
Record: 13-1-0 | Record | Record: 9-3-0 |
8 KO/TKO (62%) | Knockouts | 3 KO/TKO (33%) |
1 SUBMISSIONS (8%) | Subs | 1 SUBMISSIONS (11%) |
+100 | Vegas Odds | -120 |
6/10 | Lineup Pool | 3/10 |
Joel Alvarez | vs | Danilo Belluardo |
$8,500 | DFS Salary | $7,700 |
Record: 15-2-0 | Record | Record: 12-3-0 |
1 KO/TKO (7%) | Knockouts | 6 KO/TKO (50%) |
14 SUBMISSIONS (93%) | Subs | 3 SUBMISSIONS (25%) |
-110 | Vegas Odds | -110 |
1/10 | Lineup Pool | 3/10 |
Rostem Akman | vs | Sergey Khandozhko |
$7,400 | DFS Salary | $8,800 |
Record: 6-0-0 | Record | Record: 26-5-1 |
4 KO/TKO (80%) | Knockouts | 10 KO/TKO (40%) |
1 SUBMISSIONS (20%) | Subs | 7 SUBMISSIONS (28%) |
+135 | Vegas Odds | -155 |
2/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |