We’re back overseas for this Fight Night card taking place in Stockholm, Sweden. It’s an odd card with some local fighters mixed with some other lesser known Euro fighters. Mind your P’s and Q’s and don’t take on unnecessary risk. The Main Event is a good one, though. Alexander Gustafsson gets a chance to right the ship against human punching bag Anthony Smith. Remember, lineups lock Saturday morning.

 

 

Fighter(s)

Price

Opponent

Risk

Odds

ITD

BreakDown

Main Event

Alexander Gustafsson vs Anthony Smith

9300/6900

-

Stackability: Safe

-335/ 275

127/315

Gus is just too good. He's a devastating striker and a capable wrestler. Plus this is a home game for him. Smith does have pretty incredible durability, so he could hang around and make a decent stack in cash. I'm not overly worried about Gus being finished by other opponents lately. They were elite 205ers. Smith always has a punchers chance, I just can't see him getting the better of any exchange.

        

Expensive

Leonardo Santos

9200

Stevie Ray

Safe

-200

+165

The man can grapple. He's been out of the Octagon for a few years and is now 39, however. Still, his elite skill is Ray's biggest weakness. It's hard not seeing Santos locking in a sub at some point.

Aleksandar Rakic

8900

Jimi Manuwa

Somewhat-Safe

-190

+109

It's hard to know how good Rakic is with a limited sample of quality competition. He's an excellent athlete and has good pace stats. The concern that he's cihiny after his last fight is somewhat overblown but still a concern against someone who hits like Manuwa. Rakic's style is just an awful match-up for Manuwa, however.

Tonya Evinger

9000

Lina Lansberg

Moderate

-275

+195

Evinger should be able to bully Lansberg, who's struggled to defend wrestling. It's not a gimme with Evinger being 37 and in her opponents home country, though. She'll need to clearly win to avoid any scorecard confusion. That makes her a tough play at $9K.

Damir Hadzovic

9100

Christos Giagos

Somewhat-Risky

-175

+165

There's a bit too much momentum on Hadzovic after beating a non-juiced Polo Reyes on home turf last fight. Still, he's a heavy hitter with some wrestling in the bag, too. Giagos hasn't been great in the UFC and that's where the big line is coming from. If you aren't careful you don't last long in the ring with Damir.

        

Mid-Range

Chris Fishgold

8300

Makwan Amirkhani

Moderate

-110

+212

The best thing about Fishgold is his pace. He's a tornado of strikes and takedowns. That's an awful fit for Amirkhani and his subdued grappling. There's a chance the aggression gets Fishgold in trouble but at $8300 it's too good to resist. He could easily break 100 DK points in a win.

Sung Bin Jo

8800

Daniel Teymur

Moderate

-145

+110

Jo doesn't have outstanding wrestling, but it might be good enough. Teymur can't grapple and it shows in every fight. The newcomer Jo has his fair share of question marks, however.

Darko Stosic

8700

Devin Clark

Moderate

+100

+155

The Cro Cop protege brings much of his mentor's game to bear. He's a bit stiff but hits like a truck. That's trouble for Clark, who almost certainly has concussion issue after some heavy knockdowns. Stosic also has the strength to take away that advantage which Clark usually enjoys. I'm betting on a highlight reel KO for Stosic.

Sergey Khandozhko

8800

Rostem Akman

Moderate

-155

+150

A solid wrestler with some power who's getting a late replacement. It's always scary when you don't know what kind of opponent a fighter's getting. Still, Sergey can finish and might be on the optimal lineup.

Makwan Amirkhani

7900

Chris Fishgold

Somewhat-Risky

-110

+309

Amirikhani can control fights with his wrestling. If Fishgold's aggression isn't enough to overwhelm Mr. Finland he could cruise to a top heavy decision.

        

Pay-Downs

Christos Giagos

7100

Damir Hadzovic

Moderate

+155

+685

Giagos successes in the UFC have all come behind his wrestling. That's been an issue for Hadzovic in prior fights. Giagos does need to avoid the heavy hands of Damir but makes a nice dog play on a card without many.

Jimi Manuwa

7300

Aleksandar Rakic

Somewhat-Risky

+165

+237

Manuwa will always have a punchers chance. He's coming off of a savage war with Thiago Santos and may not be able to take much more punishment from a crisp striker in Rakic. He could also be over-owned with the "Rakic is chniny" narrative.

Daniel Teymur

7400

Sung Bin Jo

Somewhat-Risky

+125

+225

Will we finally see this Teymur get a win in the UFC. He can strike but hasn't been able to stay off his back long enough to showcase it. It's an interesting gamble, given that Jo is an unknown and Teymur might be able to stuff his wrestling.

Stevie Ray

7000

Leonardo Santos

Somewhat-Risky

+170

+689

Ray is a gamer. If he can keep Santos off his back he could win a striking decision. It's not the worst play at $7K against a 39-year-old coming off a long layoff.

Devin Clark

7500

Darko Stosic

Risky

-120

+290

Clark comes at you shot out of a canon. He has to. His defense is bad. Like, really bad. Plus he likely has a good amount of CTE and could be dropped by any clean shot. If he gets on Stosic early and wears the thick fighter down it could go his way, though. The line has flipped in Clark's favor.

Rostem Akman

7400

Sergey Khandozhko

High Risk

+135

+274

Akman has more experience than his 5-0 record indicates, with a 13-2 amateur career. He wings shots and that's always a threat. Khandozko is making his own UFC debut, so there's a chance he's just as raw.

        

Toss Up

Nick Hein vs Frank Camacho

8200/8000

-

Stackability: Risky

-105/ -115

555/330

I'd like Camacho better with a full camp. He's still a warrior and will make it a tough fight for Hein. The best days are in the rearview for "Sargent" Hein, but he's still a capable boxer. His low pace makes it tough to win decisions these days. That makes it not stackable for me, despite Camacho willingness to go to war.

 

Cash Plays: Gustafsson/Smith stack, Santos, Camacho, Khandozko

(Sample lineup)

 

GPP Plays: Rakic, Stosic, Fishgold, Jo or Teymur, Hadzovic or Giagos

(Sample lineup)

 

Favorite Bets: Giagos +150, Rakic -190, Santos -200

 

Favorite Props: Gustafsson ITD +127, Fishgold ITD +212, Stosic ITD +155

 

Live Dogs: Giagos, Amirkhani, Teymur, Belluardo, Akman, Clark
 

Alexander Gustafsson

vs

Anthony Smith

$9,300

DFS Salary

$6,900

Record: 18-5-0

Record

Record: 31-14-0

11 KO/TKO (61%)

Knockouts

17 KO/TKO (55%)

3 SUBMISSIONS (17%)

Subs

11 SUBMISSIONS (35%)

-335

Vegas Odds

+275

8/10

Lineup Pool

2/10

   

Volkan Oezdemir

vs

Ilir Latifi

$8,400

DFS Salary

$7,800

Record: 15-4-0

Record

Record: 15-6-0 (1 NC)

11 KO/TKO (73%)

Knockouts

6 KO/TKO (43%)

1 SUBMISSIONS (7%)

Subs

4 SUBMISSIONS (29%)

-120

Vegas Odds

+100

6/10

Lineup Pool

3/10

   

Jimi Manuwa

vs

Aleksandar Rakic

$7,300

DFS Salary

$8,900

Record: 17-5-0

Record

Record: 11-1-0

15 KO/TKO (88%)

Knockouts

8 KO/TKO (73%)

1 SUBMISSIONS (6%)

Subs

1 SUBMISSIONS (9%)

+165

Vegas Odds

-190

3/10

Lineup Pool

6/10

   

Makwan Amirkhani

vs

Chris Fishgold

$7,900

DFS Salary

$8,300

Record: 14-3-0

Record

Record: 18-2-1

1 KO/TKO (7%)

Knockouts

2 KO/TKO (11%)

9 SUBMISSIONS (64%)

Subs

13 SUBMISSIONS (72%)

-110

Vegas Odds

-110

4/10

Lineup Pool

5/10

   

Damir Hadzovic

vs

Christos Giagos

$9,100

DFS Salary

$7,100

Record: 13-4-0

Record

Record: 16-7-0

7 KO/TKO (54%)

Knockouts

7 KO/TKO (44%)

3 SUBMISSIONS (23%)

Subs

3 SUBMISSIONS (19%)

-175

Vegas Odds

+155

3/10

Lineup Pool

5/10

   

Daniel Teymur

vs

Sung Bin Jo

$7,400

DFS Salary

$8,800

Record: 6-3-0

Record

Record: 9-0-0

3 KO/TKO (50%)

Knockouts

5 KO/TKO (56%)

3 SUBMISSIONS (50%)

Subs

4 SUBMISSIONS (44%)

+125

Vegas Odds

-145

3/10

Lineup Pool

4/10

   

Tonya Evinger

vs

Lina Lansberg

$9,000

DFS Salary

$7,200

Record: 19-7-0 (1 NC)

Record

Record: 8-4-0

8 KO/TKO (42%)

Knockouts

4 KO/TKO (50%)

7 SUBMISSIONS (37%)

Subs

0 SUBMISSIONS (0%)

-275

Vegas Odds

+235

5/10

Lineup Pool

3/10

   

Stevie Ray

vs

Leonardo Santos

$7,000

DFS Salary

$9,200

Record: 22-8-0

Record

Record: 16-4-1

6 KO/TKO (27%)

Knockouts

2 KO/TKO (13%)

8 SUBMISSIONS (36%)

Subs

9 SUBMISSIONS (56%)

+170

Vegas Odds

-200

3/10

Lineup Pool

6/10

   

Nick Hein

vs

Frank Camacho

$8,200

DFS Salary

$8,000

Record: 14-4-0 (1 NC)

Record

Record: 21-7-0

1 KO/TKO (7%)

Knockouts

16 KO/TKO (76%)

4 SUBMISSIONS (29%)

Subs

2 SUBMISSIONS (10%)

-105

Vegas Odds

-115

2/10

Lineup Pool

4/10

   

Bea Malecki

vs

Duda Santana

$7,600

DFS Salary

$8,600

Record: 2-0-0

Record

Record: 3-0-0

1 KO/TKO (50%)

Knockouts

1 KO/TKO (33%)

1 SUBMISSIONS (50%)

Subs

0 SUBMISSIONS (0%)

-125

Vegas Odds

+105

2/10

Lineup Pool

3/10

   

Darko Stosic

vs

Devin Clark

$8,700

DFS Salary

$7,500

Record: 13-1-0

Record

Record: 9-3-0

8 KO/TKO (62%)

Knockouts

3 KO/TKO (33%)

1 SUBMISSIONS (8%)

Subs

1 SUBMISSIONS (11%)

+100

Vegas Odds

-120

6/10

Lineup Pool

3/10

   

Joel Alvarez

vs

Danilo Belluardo

$8,500

DFS Salary

$7,700

Record: 15-2-0

Record

Record: 12-3-0

1 KO/TKO (7%)

Knockouts

6 KO/TKO (50%)

14 SUBMISSIONS (93%)

Subs

3 SUBMISSIONS (25%)

-110

Vegas Odds

-110

1/10

Lineup Pool

3/10

   

Rostem Akman

vs

Sergey Khandozhko

$7,400

DFS Salary

$8,800

Record: 6-0-0

Record

Record: 26-5-1

4 KO/TKO (80%)

Knockouts

10 KO/TKO (40%)

1 SUBMISSIONS (20%)

Subs

7 SUBMISSIONS (28%)

+135

Vegas Odds

-155

2/10

Lineup Pool

4/10