We’re back to the Fight Night product this week. The card isn’t as stacked but there are interesting fights throughout. The Main Event features two fighters struggling to keep a grasp on the conversation for relevance. There are also plenty of big favorites with finishing ability. It could be an entertaining night on that front. The playbook:
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD | BreakDown | |
Main Event | Rafael Dos Anjos vs Kevin Lee | 8200/8000 | - | Stackability: Safe | -115/ -105 | 250/285 | This fight is a real toss-up. Both fighters possess an attack that the other has been very vulnerable to. It’s a solid stack as I see it going all five rounds. I’d ultimately lean Lee’s way since pressure wrestling has given RDA such a hard time. |
Expensive | Vicente Luque | 9400 | Derrick Krantz | Safe | -800 | -260 | Dude’s a killer and getting a late replacement that knows how to eat a punch. The only real concern is that neither fighter tends to push the pace that hard. |
Charles Oliveira | 9300 | Nik Lentz | Somewhat-Safe | -340 | -185 | This will be the third time these guys have fought, with Oliveira winning the most recent and the first being an NC. We’ve seen a refocussed Oliveira lately so it’s likely he adds another sub to his already historic UFC total. | |
Davi Ramos | 9200 | Austin Hubbard | Safe | -470 | -170 | Ramos is looking to rip some limbs off with his BJJ. As long as his wrestling doesn’t get stuffed he’s a lock for a win and DK scoring. | |
Julio Arce | 9600 | Julian Erosa | Moderate | -800 | +100 | Arce has an excellent karate style. He can also work some jiu-jitsu if the situation calls for it. That line and price are more than I’m willing to risk too much on, though. | |
Aspen Ladd | 9100 | Sijara Eubanks | Somewhat-Risky | -310 | +225 | This is a rematch of their last fights’ before both moving to the UFC. Ladd took that one, though unconvincingly. She has a dominant top game and that should be enough to take it. | |
Desmond Green | 9500 | Charles Jourdain | Somewhat-Safe | -650 | +225 | Green is a better fighter than DK play. His athletic style will rarely score with volume. | |
Mid-Range | Antonio Carlos Junior | 8700 | Ian Heinisch | Moderate | -165 | -115 | Carlos Junior wants to get the fight to the mat and submit you. There’s not much deviation from that plan and he’s good at it. Heinisch is a game opponent, though. |
Megan Anderson | 8500 | Felicia Spencer | Somewhat-Risky | -175 | +165 | Even for the heaviest women’s weight class, Anderson is big, Her kickboxing is very effective with that length. We have seen her dominated with wrestling before, however. | |
Danny Roberts | 8900 | Michel Pereira | Somewhat-Risky | -255 | +130 | Hot Chocolate is almost definitely a better fighter than Pereira. He’s been brutally knocked out and is facing a KO artist. That’s a bit scary but he should post a solid DK score. | |
Patrick Cummins | 8800 | Ed Herman | Somewhat-Risky | -255 | +255 | Two aging wrestlers face off in a battle of who looks worse at this point. Cummins should be able to dominate the scrambles and Herman isn’t hard to hit these days either. | |
Trevin Giles | 8400 | Zak Cummings | Somewhat-Risky | -160 | +245 | ||
Pay-Downs | Ian Heinisch | 7500 | Antonio Carlos Junior | Moderate | +145 | +320 | Everyone’s favorite former drug mule has a bit of power and a drive that few can match. He stuffed plenty of takedowns from quality wrestler Cezar Ferreira. He has a punchers chance. |
Felicia Spencer | 7700 | Megan Anderson | Somewhat-Risky | +155 | +255 | She’s a submission specialist taking on a long opponent who’s had trouble with grapplers before. I don’t love how chalky she may be with that narrative in tow. | |
Nik Lentz | 6900 | Charles Oliveira | Somewhat-Risky | +280 | +565 | Lentz is not an easy out and we’ve seen Oliveira wilt before. This is a longshot for big GPPs. | |
Sijara Eubanks | 7100 | Aspen Ladd | Somewhat-Risky | +255 | +850 | Eubanks has likely developed more in her time in the UFC than Ladd has. She has more development to do. If she’s closed the gap on Ladd their rematch could go differently.Her ownership will be low since she’s the loser of the first fight. | |
Michel Pereira | 7300 | Danny Roberts | Risky | +215 | +315 | The man is a maniac: https://vimeo.com/335989737. Not sure I want to bet on that winning but anything could certainly happen.. | |
Zak Cummings | 7800 | Trevin Giles | Somewhat-Risky | +140 | +380 | Cummings is a solid UFC veteran taking on a riser getting a step up. He absolutely has a shot to teach the young man a lesson. | |
Julian Erosa | 6600 | Julio Arce | High Risk | +550 | +815 | Erosa is a salary sacrifice in cash lineups that should be able to get to a decision and has the slightest chance at a KO. | |
Toss Up | Michael Trizano vs Grant Dawson | 8300/7900 | - | Stackability: Risky | 100/ -120 | 130/315 | The line has flipped Dawsons way. Which surprises me since his wrestling is nothing special and Trizano stuffed everything solid wrestler Luis Pena threw his way.Give me Trizanoby decision with a modest DK score. |
Cash Plays: RDA/Lee stack, Luque, Ramos, Oliveira, Carlos Junior, Erosa
Sample lineup:
GPP Plays: Roberts, Cummins, Giles, Ladd or Eubanks, Cummings, Spencer
Sample lineup:
Favorite Bets: Carlos Junior -165, Trizano +100, Oliveira -340
Favorite Props: Spencer via SUB +350, Erosa ITD +815 (longshot), Ramos ITD -170
Live Dogs: Heinisch, Spencer, Eubanks, Cummings
Stats & Picks:
Rafael Dos Anjos | vs | Kevin Lee |
$8,200 | DFS Salary | $8,000 |
Record: 28-11-0 | Record | Record: 17-4-0 |
5 KO/TKO (18%) | Knockouts | 2 KO/TKO (12%) |
9 SUBMISSIONS (32%) | Subs | 8 SUBMISSIONS (47%) |
-115 | Vegas Odds | -105 |
4/10 | Lineup Pool | 5/10 |
Antonio Carlos Junior | vs | Ian Heinisch |
$8,700 | DFS Salary | $7,500 |
Record: 11-2-0 (1 NC) | Record | Record: 12-1-0 |
0 KO/TKO (0%) | Knockouts | 4 KO/TKO (33%) |
8 SUBMISSIONS (80%) | Subs | 2 SUBMISSIONS (17%) |
-165 | Vegas Odds | +145 |
6/10 | Lineup Pool | 3/10 |
Megan Anderson | vs | Felicia Spencer |
$8,500 | DFS Salary | $7,700 |
Record: 9-3-0 | Record | Record: 6-0-0 |
5 KO/TKO (56%) | Knockouts | 1 KO/TKO (17%) |
2 SUBMISSIONS (22%) | Subs | 3 SUBMISSIONS (50%) |
-175 | Vegas Odds | +155 |
3/10 | Lineup Pool | 3/10 |
Vicente Luque | vs | Derrick Krantz |
$9,400 | DFS Salary | $6,500 |
Record: 15-6-1 | Record | Record: 24-10-0 |
8 KO/TKO (53%) | Knockouts | 10 KO/TKO (43%) |
6 SUBMISSIONS (40%) | Subs | 11 SUBMISSIONS (48%) |
-800 | Vegas Odds | +550 |
7/10 | Lineup Pool | 1/10 |
Charles Oliveira | vs | Nik Lentz |
$9,300 | DFS Salary | $6,900 |
Record: 26-8-0 (1 NC) | Record | Record: 30-9-2 (1 NC) |
6 KO/TKO (23%) | Knockouts | 11 KO/TKO (37%) |
18 SUBMISSIONS (69%) | Subs | 8 SUBMISSIONS (27%) |
-340 | Vegas Odds | +280 |
7/10 | Lineup Pool | 2/10 |
Davi Ramos | vs | Austin Hubbard |
$9,200 | DFS Salary | $7,000 |
Record: 9-2-0 | Record | Record: 10-2-0 |
1 KO/TKO (11%) | Knockouts | 4 KO/TKO (40%) |
7 SUBMISSIONS (78%) | Subs | 2 SUBMISSIONS (20%) |
-470 | Vegas Odds | +375 |
8/10 | Lineup Pool | 1/10 |
Aspen Ladd | vs | Sijara Eubanks |
$9,100 | DFS Salary | $7,100 |
Record: 7-0-0 | Record | Record: 5-2-0 |
5 KO/TKO (71%) | Knockouts | 2 KO/TKO (50%) |
1 SUBMISSIONS (14%) | Subs | 0 SUBMISSIONS (0%) |
-310 | Vegas Odds | +255 |
3/10 | Lineup Pool | 3/10 |
Desmond Green | vs | Charles Jourdain |
$9,500 | DFS Salary | $6,700 |
Record: 22-8-0 | Record | Record: 9-1-0 |
6 KO/TKO (27%) | Knockouts | 6 KO/TKO (67%) |
1 SUBMISSIONS (5%) | Subs | 3 SUBMISSIONS (33%) |
-650 | Vegas Odds | +475 |
3/10 | Lineup Pool | 2/10 |
Danny Roberts | vs | Michel Pereira |
$8,900 | DFS Salary | $7,300 |
Record: 16-4-0 | Record | Record: 22-9-0 (2 NC) |
7 KO/TKO (44%) | Knockouts | 8 KO/TKO (38%) |
5 SUBMISSIONS (31%) | Subs | 6 SUBMISSIONS (29%) |
-255 | Vegas Odds | +215 |
6/10 | Lineup Pool | 3/10 |
Michael Trizano | vs | Grant Dawson |
$8,300 | DFS Salary | $7,900 |
Record: 9-0-0 | Record | Record: 13-1-0 |
2 KO/TKO (25%) | Knockouts | 3 KO/TKO (23%) |
2 SUBMISSIONS (25%) | Subs | 9 SUBMISSIONS (69%) |
+100 | Vegas Odds | -120 |
2/10 | Lineup Pool | 2/10 |
Patrick Cummins | vs | Ed Herman |
$8,800 | DFS Salary | $7,400 |
Record: 10-6-0 | Record | Record: 24-14-0 (1 NC) |
4 KO/TKO (40%) | Knockouts | 6 KO/TKO (26%) |
2 SUBMISSIONS (20%) | Subs | 13 SUBMISSIONS (57%) |
-255 | Vegas Odds | +215 |
4/10 | Lineup Pool | 2/10 |
Zak Cummings | vs | Trevin Giles |
$7,800 | DFS Salary | $8,400 |
Record: 22-6-0 | Record | Record: 11-0-0 |
5 KO/TKO (23%) | Knockouts | 5 KO/TKO (45%) |
11 SUBMISSIONS (50%) | Subs | 5 SUBMISSIONS (45%) |
+140 | Vegas Odds | -160 |
2/10 | Lineup Pool | 5/10 |
Julio Arce | vs | Julian Erosa |
$9,600 | DFS Salary | $6,600 |
Record: 15-3-0 | Record | Record: 22-8-0 |
3 KO/TKO (20%) | Knockouts | 10 KO/TKO (45%) |
5 SUBMISSIONS (33%) | Subs | 9 SUBMISSIONS (41%) |
-800 | Vegas Odds | +550 |
3/10 | Lineup Pool | 2/10 |