We’re back to the Fight Night product this week. The card isn’t as stacked but there are interesting fights throughout. The Main Event features two fighters struggling to keep a grasp on the conversation for relevance. There are also plenty of big favorites with finishing ability. It could be an entertaining night on that front. The playbook:

 

 

Fighter(s)

Price

Opponent

Risk

Odds

ITD

BreakDown

Main Event

Rafael Dos Anjos vs Kevin Lee

8200/8000

-

Stackability: Safe

-115/ -105

250/285

This fight is a real toss-up. Both fighters possess an attack that the other has been very vulnerable to. It’s a solid stack as I see it going all five rounds. I’d ultimately lean Lee’s way since pressure wrestling has given RDA such a hard time.

        

Expensive

Vicente Luque

9400

Derrick Krantz

Safe

-800

-260

Dude’s a killer and getting a late replacement that knows how to eat a punch. The only real concern is that neither fighter tends to push the pace that hard.

Charles Oliveira

9300

Nik Lentz

Somewhat-Safe

-340

-185

This will be the third time these guys have fought, with Oliveira winning the most recent and the first being an NC. We’ve seen a refocussed Oliveira lately so it’s likely he adds another sub to his already historic UFC total.

Davi Ramos

9200

Austin Hubbard

Safe

-470

-170

Ramos is looking to rip some limbs off with his BJJ. As long as his wrestling doesn’t get stuffed he’s a lock for a win and DK scoring.

Julio Arce

9600

Julian Erosa

Moderate

-800

+100

Arce has an excellent karate style. He can also work some jiu-jitsu if the situation calls for it. That line and price are more than I’m willing to risk too much on, though.

Aspen Ladd

9100

Sijara Eubanks

Somewhat-Risky

-310

+225

This is a rematch of their last fights’ before both moving to the UFC. Ladd took that one, though unconvincingly. She has a dominant top game and that should be enough to take it.

Desmond Green

9500

Charles Jourdain

Somewhat-Safe

-650

+225

Green is a better fighter than DK play. His athletic style will rarely score with volume.

        

Mid-Range

Antonio Carlos Junior

8700

Ian Heinisch

Moderate

-165

-115

Carlos Junior wants to get the fight to the mat and submit you. There’s not much deviation from that plan and he’s good at it. Heinisch is a game opponent, though.

Megan Anderson

8500

Felicia Spencer

Somewhat-Risky

-175

+165

Even for the heaviest women’s weight class, Anderson is big, Her kickboxing is very effective with that length. We have seen her dominated with wrestling before, however.

Danny Roberts

8900

Michel Pereira

Somewhat-Risky

-255

+130

Hot Chocolate is almost definitely a better fighter than Pereira. He’s been brutally knocked out and is facing a KO artist. That’s a bit scary but he should post a solid DK score.

Patrick Cummins

8800

Ed Herman

Somewhat-Risky

-255

+255

Two aging wrestlers face off in a battle of who looks worse at this point. Cummins should be able to dominate the scrambles and Herman isn’t hard to hit these days either.

Trevin Giles

8400

Zak Cummings

Somewhat-Risky

-160

+245

 
        

Pay-Downs

Ian Heinisch

7500

Antonio Carlos Junior

Moderate

+145

+320

Everyone’s favorite former drug mule has a bit of power and a drive that few can match. He stuffed plenty of takedowns from quality wrestler Cezar Ferreira. He has a punchers chance.

Felicia Spencer

7700

Megan Anderson

Somewhat-Risky

+155

+255

She’s a submission specialist taking on a long opponent who’s had trouble with grapplers before. I don’t love how chalky she may be with that narrative in tow.

Nik Lentz

6900

Charles Oliveira

Somewhat-Risky

+280

+565

Lentz is not an easy out and we’ve seen Oliveira wilt before. This is a longshot for big GPPs.

Sijara Eubanks

7100

Aspen Ladd

Somewhat-Risky

+255

+850

Eubanks has likely developed more in her time in the UFC than Ladd has. She has more development to do. If she’s closed the gap on Ladd their rematch could go differently.Her ownership will be low since she’s the loser of the first fight.

Michel Pereira

7300

Danny Roberts

Risky

+215

+315

The man is a maniac: https://vimeo.com/335989737. Not sure I want to bet on that winning but anything could certainly happen..

Zak Cummings

7800

Trevin Giles

Somewhat-Risky

+140

+380

Cummings is a solid UFC veteran taking on a riser getting a step up. He absolutely has a shot to teach the young man a lesson.

Julian Erosa

6600

Julio Arce

High Risk

+550

+815

Erosa is a salary sacrifice in cash lineups that should be able to get to a decision and has the slightest chance at a KO.

        

Toss Up

Michael Trizano vs Grant Dawson

8300/7900

-

Stackability: Risky

100/ -120

130/315

The line has flipped Dawsons way. Which surprises me since his wrestling is nothing special and Trizano stuffed everything solid wrestler Luis Pena threw his way.Give me Trizanoby decision with a modest DK score.

 

Cash Plays: RDA/Lee stack, Luque, Ramos, Oliveira, Carlos Junior, Erosa

Sample lineup:

 

GPP Plays: Roberts, Cummins, Giles, Ladd or Eubanks, Cummings, Spencer

Sample lineup:

 

Favorite Bets: Carlos Junior -165, Trizano +100, Oliveira -340

 

Favorite Props: Spencer via SUB +350, Erosa ITD +815 (longshot), Ramos ITD -170

 

Live Dogs: Heinisch, Spencer, Eubanks, Cummings

 

Stats & Picks:

 

Rafael Dos Anjos

vs

Kevin Lee

$8,200

DFS Salary

$8,000

Record: 28-11-0

Record

Record: 17-4-0

5 KO/TKO (18%)

Knockouts

2 KO/TKO (12%)

9 SUBMISSIONS (32%)

Subs

8 SUBMISSIONS (47%)

-115

Vegas Odds

-105

4/10

Lineup Pool

5/10

   

Antonio Carlos Junior

vs

Ian Heinisch

$8,700

DFS Salary

$7,500

Record: 11-2-0 (1 NC)

Record

Record: 12-1-0

0 KO/TKO (0%)

Knockouts

4 KO/TKO (33%)

8 SUBMISSIONS (80%)

Subs

2 SUBMISSIONS (17%)

-165

Vegas Odds

+145

6/10

Lineup Pool

3/10

   

Megan Anderson

vs

Felicia Spencer

$8,500

DFS Salary

$7,700

Record: 9-3-0

Record

Record: 6-0-0

5 KO/TKO (56%)

Knockouts

1 KO/TKO (17%)

2 SUBMISSIONS (22%)

Subs

3 SUBMISSIONS (50%)

-175

Vegas Odds

+155

3/10

Lineup Pool

3/10

   

Vicente Luque

vs

Derrick Krantz

$9,400

DFS Salary

$6,500

Record: 15-6-1

Record

Record: 24-10-0

8 KO/TKO (53%)

Knockouts

10 KO/TKO (43%)

6 SUBMISSIONS (40%)

Subs

11 SUBMISSIONS (48%)

-800

Vegas Odds

+550

7/10

Lineup Pool

1/10

   

Charles Oliveira

vs

Nik Lentz

$9,300

DFS Salary

$6,900

Record: 26-8-0 (1 NC)

Record

Record: 30-9-2 (1 NC)

6 KO/TKO (23%)

Knockouts

11 KO/TKO (37%)

18 SUBMISSIONS (69%)

Subs

8 SUBMISSIONS (27%)

-340

Vegas Odds

+280

7/10

Lineup Pool

2/10

   

Davi Ramos

vs

Austin Hubbard

$9,200

DFS Salary

$7,000

Record: 9-2-0

Record

Record: 10-2-0

1 KO/TKO (11%)

Knockouts

4 KO/TKO (40%)

7 SUBMISSIONS (78%)

Subs

2 SUBMISSIONS (20%)

-470

Vegas Odds

+375

8/10

Lineup Pool

1/10

   

Aspen Ladd

vs

Sijara Eubanks

$9,100

DFS Salary

$7,100

Record: 7-0-0

Record

Record: 5-2-0

5 KO/TKO (71%)

Knockouts

2 KO/TKO (50%)

1 SUBMISSIONS (14%)

Subs

0 SUBMISSIONS (0%)

-310

Vegas Odds

+255

3/10

Lineup Pool

3/10

   

Desmond Green

vs

Charles Jourdain

$9,500

DFS Salary

$6,700

Record: 22-8-0

Record

Record: 9-1-0

6 KO/TKO (27%)

Knockouts

6 KO/TKO (67%)

1 SUBMISSIONS (5%)

Subs

3 SUBMISSIONS (33%)

-650

Vegas Odds

+475

3/10

Lineup Pool

2/10

   

Danny Roberts

vs

Michel Pereira

$8,900

DFS Salary

$7,300

Record: 16-4-0

Record

Record: 22-9-0 (2 NC)

7 KO/TKO (44%)

Knockouts

8 KO/TKO (38%)

5 SUBMISSIONS (31%)

Subs

6 SUBMISSIONS (29%)

-255

Vegas Odds

+215

6/10

Lineup Pool

3/10

   

Michael Trizano

vs

Grant Dawson

$8,300

DFS Salary

$7,900

Record: 9-0-0

Record

Record: 13-1-0

2 KO/TKO (25%)

Knockouts

3 KO/TKO (23%)

2 SUBMISSIONS (25%)

Subs

9 SUBMISSIONS (69%)

+100

Vegas Odds

-120

2/10

Lineup Pool

2/10

   

Patrick Cummins

vs

Ed Herman

$8,800

DFS Salary

$7,400

Record: 10-6-0

Record

Record: 24-14-0 (1 NC)

4 KO/TKO (40%)

Knockouts

6 KO/TKO (26%)

2 SUBMISSIONS (20%)

Subs

13 SUBMISSIONS (57%)

-255

Vegas Odds

+215

4/10

Lineup Pool

2/10

   

Zak Cummings

vs

Trevin Giles

$7,800

DFS Salary

$8,400

Record: 22-6-0

Record

Record: 11-0-0

5 KO/TKO (23%)

Knockouts

5 KO/TKO (45%)

11 SUBMISSIONS (50%)

Subs

5 SUBMISSIONS (45%)

+140

Vegas Odds

-160

2/10

Lineup Pool

5/10

   

Julio Arce

vs

Julian Erosa

$9,600

DFS Salary

$6,600

Record: 15-3-0

Record

Record: 22-8-0

3 KO/TKO (20%)

Knockouts

10 KO/TKO (45%)

5 SUBMISSIONS (33%)

Subs

9 SUBMISSIONS (41%)

-800

Vegas Odds

+550

3/10

Lineup Pool

2/10