As the first half rolls along and we get a solid base of at-bats for a more significant sample we can start to look for in-season risers and fallers. Exit velocity and barrel% make a great tandem for examining who’s been hot for the last ten days. May is a turning point for many fantasy teams. These statcast numbers can hopefully help you get some clarity on how to proceed.
In the chart below you see exit velocity and barrel% broken out for games prior to 5/5 and then the last ten days, along with the change in each. Note an #N/A just means they haven’t hit a barrel in the sample, which isn’t uncommon.
Exit Velocity | Barrel% | |||||
Player | <5/5 | Last 10 | Diff | <5/5 | Last 10 | Diff |
85.2 | 100.7 | 15.5 | 1.1 | 6.7 | 5.6 | |
86.8 | 96.8 | 10 | #N/A | 4.1 | #N/A | |
82.9 | 91.8 | 8.9 | 0.9 | 2.2 | 1.3 | |
88.2 | 96.5 | 8.3 | 2.3 | 4.4 | 2.1 | |
78.3 | 86.5 | 8.2 | 0.5 | #N/A | #N/A | |
82.9 | 91.1 | 8.2 | 1.8 | #N/A | #N/A | |
84.8 | 92.8 | 8 | 0.2 | 2 | 1.8 | |
82.8 | 90.6 | 7.8 | #N/A | 2 | #N/A | |
89.8 | 97 | 7.2 | 1.5 | 4.8 | 3.3 | |
91.6 | 98.6 | 7 | 3.5 | 5.4 | 1.9 | |
82.8 | 89.6 | 6.8 | 0.4 | 1.8 | 1.4 | |
79.1 | 85.7 | 6.6 | #N/A | 1.9 | #N/A | |
88.3 | 94.8 | 6.5 | 1 | 3.4 | 2.4 | |
87.2 | 93.6 | 6.4 | 1.6 | 3.3 | 1.7 | |
76.9 | 83.1 | 6.2 | #N/A | #N/A | #N/A | |
90.3 | 96.3 | 6 | 1.4 | 1.1 | -0.3 | |
85.7 | 91.7 | 6 | 0.4 | 1.5 | 1.1 | |
91.4 | 97.2 | 5.8 | 2.5 | 1.9 | -0.6 | |
89.5 | 95.1 | 5.6 | 1.6 | 2.7 | 1.1 | |
85.5 | 91.1 | 5.6 | 1.8 | 2.9 | 1.1 | |
Brandon Dixon is obviously smoking hot. I doubt he’s a full season contributor but if you have a need he’s a decent MI add short term. Robinson Chirinos has been feasting on weaker pitching so don’t go overboard for him. If he was dropped in a format where you need a catcher (who doesn’t) he’s a good option against lefties.Speaking of catcher needs, Jason Castro is a pretty solid option with Mitch Garver hitting the IL for a bit. CJ Cron and Rhys Hoskins are looking more dialed in lately. They make a nice DFS play while they’re heating up.
Let’s also look at the players not generating power in at-bats.
Exit Velocity | Barrel% | |||||
Player | <5/5 | Last 10 | Diff | <5/5 | Last 10 | Diff |
90.8 | 84.9 | -5.9 | 1 | #N/A | #N/A | |
90.6 | 84.7 | -5.9 | 1.5 | 1.2 | -0.3 | |
92.5 | 86.4 | -6.1 | 0.8 | #N/A | #N/A | |
88.9 | 82.6 | -6.3 | 1.3 | 0.8 | -0.5 | |
87.6 | 81.2 | -6.4 | #N/A | #N/A | #N/A | |
93 | 86.5 | -6.5 | 1.1 | 0.7 | -0.4 | |
92.8 | 86.2 | -6.6 | 1.9 | 0.8 | -1.1 | |
88.5 | 81.8 | -6.7 | 1.2 | #N/A | #N/A | |
96 | 89 | -7 | 3 | 1.4 | -1.6 | |
90.9 | 83.8 | -7.1 | 2 | #N/A | #N/A | |
95.6 | 88.4 | -7.2 | 1.4 | 0.6 | -0.8 | |
88.4 | 81.2 | -7.2 | 1.3 | #N/A | #N/A | |
90 | 82.6 | -7.4 | 2.1 | #N/A | #N/A | |
86.4 | 78.6 | -7.8 | 0.7 | #N/A | #N/A | |
87.4 | 79.1 | -8.3 | 0.9 | #N/A | #N/A | |
91.4 | 83 | -8.4 | 1.7 | 1.3 | -0.4 | |
95.1 | 86.6 | -8.5 | 2.9 | 1.1 | -1.8 | |
90.7 | 81.7 | -9 | 1.6 | 2.1 | 0.5 | |
90.8 | 80 | -10.8 | 0.4 | 1.1 | 0.7 | |
91.6 | 76.6 | -15 | 1.9 | #N/A | #N/A | |
If you’re a José Ramírez owner I feel for you. He’s destroying my Ottoneu team. Things surely can only get better. Tim Beckham ’s hot start is well behind us now. As is another Mariner’s in Dan Vogelbach. Vogie has too many holes in his swing to ever be consistent. If you can find a better catcher, Jorge Alfaro is a drop. I’m ignoring Nelson Cruz ’ numbers here as one of his games included a wrist injury.
You can find all of these at Baseball Savant for your own perusing. I wouldn’t use this data to make a drastic move but a well-played buy low or DFS discount can go a long way. Remember that fantasy baseball is an exercise in patience. Be judicious with your roster moves.