UFC Fight Night 150

It’s pretty fitting that this event is taking place in Florida. The card is filled with aging fighters close to retirement and match-ups that will feature extreme violence. One of the fighters in the main event is nicknamed Aligator in Brazilian. It’s all so Florida.

Case for Souza: The only people that have beaten Jacare are champion caliber fighters. They also did not beat him easily, paying for their win in pain. Souza wings vicious shots with max power and doesn’t care if he eats return fire to land his own. There’s also a reason no one really looks to take him down. His BJJ is top notch and he puts that Gator nomer to work if things hit the mat. Father Time could be his worst enemy at 39.

Case for Hermansson: The Swede steps up on a couple of weeks notice here. It’s a great opportunity to jump into the title picture with a win. The Joker is solid everywhere. Grappling and ground and pound are his main strengths.

The play: Unfortunately for Hermansson he’s probably at a grappling disadvantage and I don’t see Jacare succumbing to GnP. He could work effectively on the feet and win a decision or clip Souza for a KO. I don’t see that happening either, however. He had difficulty pulling the trigger in his KO loss to Thiago Santos, and while Souza isn’t as light on the feet he throws with similarly bad intentions. I see Hermansson running into trouble against Jacare’s style and losing a tough fight by eventual KO.

Case for Hardy: Other than a handpicked tin can for him that’s a step down from the last tin can he got DQ’d for illegally kneeing? He probably scores a knockout in typically violent fashion. ESPN and UFC are doing their best to secure that outcome.

Case for Smoliakov: There’s a chance Hardy just isn’t a good mixed martial artist. Smoliakov has five of nine wins via submission.

The play: I don’t really want to trust Hardy but he’s tremendously violent. He needs to show some kind of bottom barrel fight IQ. I’ll mix in shares with reserved caution.

Case for Oliveira: Cowboy is one of the more exciting fighters on the roster. He goes all out and can trade bombs as well as choke you out. His issues have been mainly self-inflicted with questionable decision making.

Case for Perry: His style is fairly singular, but can be effective against the right opponent. Perry tends to bull rush and that pressure is difficult to handle at times. He’s also a solid athlete and pretty bent on portraying an air of badassery.

The play: The nature of a finish happening here merits inclusion of both fighters. I’m leaning Cowboy’s way since a war plays into his skill set. There’s a chance Perry connects to do enough damage, though.

Case for Teixeira: It gets a little harder for him to hang with a young gun each time out, but he’s still coming out on top mostly. The striking isn’t as lethal as it used to be but he’s still efficient. Teixeira’s intelligence helps him win and grappling has become a staple of his game.

Case for Cutelaba: He’s strong and hits like a mack truck. Ion isn’t the most effecient striker or wrestler but he gets after it. He’s had trouble stepping up in competition before and this is a huge step.

The play: Does Tex have enough left in the tank? I think so. Cutelaba exposes himself to too many scoring opportunities. I’ll mix in a good amount of both fighters.

Case for Lineker: When he makes it into the cage there are few more violent. He throws punches designed to end your night. He can work the body against a much taller foe here. He has some wrestling in his back pocket as well if he can grab a body lock.

Case for Sandhagen: Sandhagen may be one of the few individuals capable of matching Lineker’s violence level. He comes to brawl and throws tons of volume. His relentless pace could spell trouble for Lineker.

The play: This is one of my favorite fights to target. I’ll probably be close to even on both men.

Case for Roberts: He’s an uber prospect getting a friendly match-up. The striking is tight and he has finishes via sub on his record, too.

Case for Gifford: Gifford does pose a jiu-jitsu threat. That’s about his only avenue.

The play: Roberts is the most expensive fighter, so it’s a tough pill to swallow. You should be mixing him in slightly more than Hardy.

Case for Saunders: “Killer B” will always have a dangerous offensive game thanks to his length. He’s a striking mismatch for most and he uses his long limbs well on the mat. His chin has cracks from a long career.

Case for Sato: He’s a grinder and has plenty of KOs on the record. His ground and pound is a threat on the mat as well. This might be his UFC debut but he’s fought decent competition on other promotions.

The play: I’m leaning Sato’s way. Some Saunders is warranted, though. It’s a good fight to target for a finish.

Case for Arlovski: The old man is still trying to win a few more in the Octagon. That’s been a challenge lately. He has figured out how to fight in a way that protects his suspect chin, however. He does some of everything.

Case for Sakai: An aggressive kickboxer who pilled up stats in his debut against Chase Sherman. He has power, as most heavy’s do. I was unimpressed rewatching his debut against a very hittable Sherman.

The play: My concern is that Sakai can’t draw Arlovski out. Better fighters have failed to do so recently. Low volume and a decision isn’t going to score. They’re still heavyweights so some of both makes sense.

Case for Esparza: Cookie Monster is a fighter who’s always seemingly just outside of title contention. She was the divisions first champ but lost to Joana and has had trouble with elite up and comers since. Her wrestling is excellent and her pace is tenacious.

Case for Jandiroba: She has one elite skill: takedowns. Her top game is heavy, as well. Being 14-0 on the women’s regional scene isn’t a huge indicator of skill. Her last three fights came in Invicta, which is a step up, but none of her opponents looked like much to me. Esparza has struggled with strong wrestlers recently.

The play: I’m confused as to why the UFC has Jandiroba debuting against Carla. A win only helps Virna. Carla doesn’t get anything win or lose. She’s not someone many women want to fight, however. Jandiroba isn’t ready for this test. She stands still looking to shoot and isn’t going to get to dominate her opponent the way she’s accustomed to.

Case for Burns: He’s one of the most talented fighters in the division with heavy hands and sick BJJ. Not working to get to the mat has got him in trouble in the past. He’s been more focussed recently though, against good fighters. Which is encouraging.

Case for Davis: A long fighter for the division who can thump. Davis is a late replacement. His war with Sodiq Yuseff on the DWTNCS, even though a loss, was impressive. He has a hard time keeping opponents at range. That could be trouble here.

The play: Mostly Burns, but he will be popular. That makes a sprinkling of Davis a nice leverage play if you build enough lineups.

Case for Miller: He failed to reach the summit of the division, but he’s a solid gatekeeper. His wrestling is tight and he can throw hands, too.

Case for Gonzalez: A monster of a lightweight will be a challenge for the already small Miller. He showed a nice pace against Gregor Gillespie, despite losing. He throws hard and isn’t a worthless wrestler despite bad metrics.

The play: I’m leaning the dogs way here. I think Miller gets overwhelmed early.

Case for Hill: Overkill is primed for success here. She’s unlikely to face much grappling from Esquibel. That’s been her achilles heel. Hill’s an active fighter and should hit an easy target plenty over three rounds.

Case for Esquibel: This is likely to be one of her last UFC performances, going 0-2 so far. She’s been far too hittable. MMA is no stranger to odd decisions, however. She brings a good pace could win a couple judges over.

The play: This one’s all Hill. Her price tag makes it tough to roster her, though. She hasn’t earned a finish in a few years and Esquibel seems capable of absorbing punishment.

Case for McGee: One of the busier fighters around, he uses pace to frustrate opponents. He’s a wrestler, but throws strikes with volume, too.

Case for Lima: He’s a good athlete and can both wrestler and strike some. McGee generally faces more one-dimensional opponents.

The play: McGee is always a nice play in a win, but they’ve become farther in between of late. That merits some shares of both, though I don’t see either scoring all that highly.

Cash Plays:

GPP Plays:

Favorite Bets: Esparza +100, Arlovski +130, Gonzalez +120

Favorite Props: Souza ITD -175, Oliveira ITD -120, Lineker ITD +180
Live Dogs: Hermansson, Perry, Teixeira, Sandhagen, Gonzalez