UFC on ESPN 2

This UFC On ESPN 2 card may not have a ton of star power, but it’s chocked full of solid fights. The main event is a sneaky good matchup, too.

Case for Barboza: Barboza is a lethal striker. He's taken out some of the divisions best. His latest losses have been to wrestlers, which won't come into play in this fight. Leg kicks are his strike du jour.

Case for Gaethje: Only two men have had the firepower to put Gaethje out: Dustin Poirier and Eddie Alvarez. Both of who are badasses. Gaethje is a purveyor of violence with 16 of 19 wins coming via KO.

The play: You should probably have a strong stomach to watch this one. Both men are capable of both dishing and absorbing substantial amounts of punishment. It’s going to be a great fight. I don’t see an early finish coming as Gaethje will have to weather Barboza’s early onslaught. It’s definitely stackable for volume and uncertain outcome. Give me the lower priced guy in Gaethje.

Case for Branch: There is power in his hands, he just doesn’t throw them often. Wrestling is what he leans on with 8 takedown attempts per 15. He has a win over the recently unstoppable Thiago Santos.

Case for Hermansson: The Joker is a serious contender. He sets a torrid pace and can hold his own anywhere the fight goes.

The play: Branch gets a bit more credit than I feel he deserves for knocking out Santos. He caught him and it was a nice win, but that doesn't seem to be his skill set. Hermansson could have trouble getting his ground and pound approach going against a solid wrestler but he still has to be the favorite. There are other ways he can win this fight.

Case for Emmett: Josh Emmett was on a serious run before Jeremy Stephens derailed his hype train in devastatingly violent fashion. It's no certainty he rebounds from that vicious loss well.

Case for Johnson: One of the best pure boxers in the division. Johnson can throw hands with anybody. He does so at an excellent pace of 11.34 SAtpM. He’s criminally underrated having faced some of the best in the division.

The play: All of the fighters who have beat Johnson possess some wrestling. Emmett has it in the bag if he wants to go to it, and he should. Especially with a recently reconstructed face. Some heavy money has come in on him and that’s enough to decide this close fight for me.

Case for Kowalkiewicz: She’s as close to a Joana Jedrzejczyk knock off as you can get. Good reach, blistering pace, hard to take down. She’s come up short against the division’s elite, however.

Case for Waterson: The Karate Hottie is always a game opponent, she is excellent at finding ways to win. It’s laughable how many times she’s scored a head-and-arm throw and found a submission. Her karate style is also frustrating to many fighters.

The play: Waterson is a gamer but she won't find the good fortune that's led her to some easy wins here. Kowalkiewicz is champion-lite brand beer. She has no glaring weaknesses and plenty of strengths. That easy takedown won’t be coming for Waterson and she’s likely to find herself at the end of KK’s strikes all night.

Case for Nzechukwu: He's built like the king of jungle but can be more of a cowardly lion. He's a genuinely nice guy that has to figure out how to separate fights from regular life. If he can, watch out. A super long striker who throws with easy power from a southpaw stance.

Case for Craig: Craig is the UFCs measuring stick. He's enough of a challenge that not any shmoe can take him out but is not a threat to anyone that belongs in the promotion. He can be dangerous with a submission.

The play: Unless Craig pulls another rabbit out his hat he's a bad bet. That may not make Nzechukwu a good bet. Craig does not go away easily and has a mean streak. Still, it will only take one of those powerful left-handed shots to find a home for this one to end.

Case for Yusuff: Super Sodiq throws with bad intentions. He backs that up with some solid wrestling. He had an easy opponent in his UFC debut. Things aren’t going to be so simple against Moraes here.

Case for Moraes: Another up-and-comer, Moraes is a very well rounded fighter with dangerous strikes. Money came in on Moraes as a bigger dog prior to the line adjusting.

The play: This one could be a tornado of violence. I’m going to side with the Yusuff given he can bail out of trouble with wrestling. Moraes has had some trouble with opponents there. It’s a very close bout, though. The winner will likely be on the optimal lineup, so target both sides equally if you build more than one lineup.

Case for Rodriguez: One of the biggest favorites of this card. Marina’s won 5 of 10 via knockout.

Case for Aguilar: She has the ability to catch a sleeping opponent on the mat and brings a solid pace. The UFC has not been kind to her record, though.

The play: Rodriguez $9100 price is hard to swallow. Aguilar’s swiss cheese striking defense can help there with almost 7 strikes absorbed per minute. There’s some risk she doesn’t hit value but could also be a low owned fighter to hit 100 DK points.

Case for Pearson: There’s no one Pearson is afraid to trade punches with. He’s a British brawler through and through.

Case for Green: The Predator is an athletic specimen. That’s usually enough to carry him to victory behind a wrestling base. He hasn’t shown much danger to finish opponents, though.

The play: Neither is a great DK play. Green's lack of aggression can be an issue. Even in wins he’s scored in the 60’s. I’m fading this fight for the most part.

Case for Barzola: The winner of TUF Latina America 2, Barzola is a tenacious wrestler. He both attempts (6.17) and lands (11.87) takedowns at super high rates. His striking defense is very nice at 69%.

Case for Aguilar: The Angel Of Death puts a very long 73” reach to use putting his opponents lights out with 10 of 16 wins via KO. That has all been against regional competition, however.

The play: Aguilar’s knockout ability is getting over-hyped here. Unless Barzola gets caught flat-footed, he’s going to be putting Aguilar on the wrestling defensive all fight. A guy that can land 5-10 takedowns at $8200 is an amazing value.

Case for Holland: Holland’s two UFC fights were polar opposites. He got KO’d by Thiago Santos (who hasn’t?) and submitted John Phillips (who hasn’t?). That leaves us without much to work with from recent samples. He likely utilizes his range here.

Case for Meerschaert: Always wild, Meerschaert is very hard to project. He does nothing right and yet bails himself out with submissions all the time.

The play: At least the two hardest fighters to get a feel for are fighting each other. The smarter play is Holland. It’s still terrifying to put money on.

Case for Borg: He's a contender getting a regional late replacement. Wrestling is his go to. He’s the most expensive fighter of the night. ***Borg missed weight. Understandable with his newborn going through serious health issues the last year. He also chose to stop cutting and take a fine, which seems smart.***

Case for Kenney: After flopping on DWTNCS Kenney regrouped and won a regional title. He probably needs to pull out a finish here.

The play: The only concern I have is Kenney being a southpaw. One of Borg’s three losses came to scrappy southpaw Justin Scoggins. It’s going to temper my ownership, but only slighty.

Case for Mazo: A young fighter with momentum behind her. She has some highlight fodder KO’s in the LFA.

Case for Moroz: Moroz is a gritty fighter out of the Ukraine. She will not go away easily. Her submission game also poses a threat.

The play: One of my cardinal rules is not to play a woman who’s a regional darling debuting against a tough UFC vet. So I’ll pass on Mazo, even if it means missing out on a great debut. I’m ok with mixing Moroz in if you need some salary relief.

Case for Perez: An aggressive striker who wastes no time mixing it up. He was on a roll before Joe Benavidez mopped the canvas with him.

Case for De La Rosa: Bumblebee is good at one thing: grappling. If he can get you to the mat you’re living in his world.

The play: This comes down to what Perez has in the grappling department. Prior to Benavidez ragdolling him we thought he was solid, with decent grappling against other solid wrestlers. I’m not willing to pay his price, though. De La Rosa has too clear of a path to victory if he avoids getting caught on the feet.

Cash Plays:

Barboza/Gaethje, Kowalkiewicz, Rodriguez, Borg, Barzola.

The main event is very stackable. There’s not room for many pay-ups, though.

GPP Plays:

Hermansson, Nzechukwu, Holland, Yusuff or Moraes, De La Rosa.

With little salary relief, De La Rosa is one of the few pay-downs I can stomach.

Favorite Bets: Kowalkiewicz -145, Barzola -115

Favorite Props: Hermansson ITD +135, De La Rosa via SUB +860

Live Dogs: Gaethje, De La Rosa, Moraes, Meerschaert, Pearson.