UFC Fight Night 146: Lewis vs. Dos Santos

We’re back at it fight fans. As tends to happen on a Fight Night card, there aren’t as many big names. We still have some tight fights and good matchups, though. Junior Dos Santos is being kept busy with another recent contender in Derrick Lewis. There are underdogs in play so building lineups is enjoyable this week.

Derrick Lewis vs Junior Dos Santos

Despite being supremely entertaining, Derrick Lewis is not a great fighter. Most of his recent wins have been snatched from the jaws of defeat. He plods forward winging shots aimed at a KO. If you stand in front of him long enough they land. He also has very poor fitness.

Junior Dos Santos is probably the best boxer in the heavyweight division. He had a short run as champ. The last decade has seen JDS beat the best of the division. Some of that mileage caught up five fights ago and he was KO’d for only the second and third times. He has been in with heavy hitters since and the chin is still there for him.

I see this fight playing out like JDS-Ivanov did. Lewis can absorb punishment like nobody’s business and he likely will here.  Facing five rounds of bad defense makes JDS a smash play. Anybody can get caught, but I have confidence Junior knows this and out works a tiring Lewis. The knockout is always in play with the easy power Dos Santos puts out.

Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos  vs Curtis Millender

Elizeu Zaleski has had an interesting UFC run. His victories have come over some quality opponents, yet he doesn’t seem to get much respect. Out of 20 wins 14 have come ITD. That sounds like a fighter we should be interested in.

Courteous Curtis Milender has made an excellent transition to the UFC. He’s a very technical and patient striker. His length is on display with his kick game. He has power but doesn’t look to brawl.

This fight comes down to whether or not Zaleski can get past Millender’s striking range. If he does, he’s a fox in the hen house. If not, Millender probably picks him apart and wins a decision. For DFS purposes that makes Zaleski the better play, if slightly less likely to win.

Tim Means vs Niko Price

Tim Means is a bad dude. He does not come to mess around. He’s a lanky fighter and puts it to use with a high striking output. Things unraveled for him in the last few years with some split-decision loses. He got back in the win column and probably knows this is his last good run at 35 years old.

Niko Price is not a solid UFC fighter. His striking is really suspect with bad output and poor accuracy. He gets overestimated based a couple of remarkable finishes. When he gets put in there with a good opponent he’s lost.

Means should smoke Price in this one. There’s risk with how ugly Price can make a fight, but Means is no fish. He can hang tough and give back as good as he gets. At $8800 Means is one of my core plays.

Blagoy Ivanov vs Ben Rothwell

Blagoy Ivanov is a tough hombre. He took a knife to the chest in a bar fight years ago and is still continuing an MMA career. He has a Sambo background. Guys with his resume are tough to finish.

We haven’t seen Rothwell in almost three years. He served a two-year USADA suspension during that time as well. We have no idea what version of Rothwell will be getting into the ring. His finish rate is somewhat inflated from time in lesser promotions, though he is a capable finisher.

Ivanov has to be the better play here. Sure, Rothwell is dangerous. In the end, I think Ivanov is much better equipped for a brawler like Rothwell than a boxer like JDS. I’d look at this fight as a one-off situation.

Beneil Dariush vs Drew Dober

Beneil Dariush is a very well rounded fighter. He’s efficient on the feet and no slouch as a grappler. He is cautious though. That caught up with him when Alexander Hernandez bum rushed and KO’d him in under a minute.

Drew Dober is more a free swinger, evidenced by a 11.71 strikes attempted per minute. He tends to end up in wars. If he remembers, he has some wrestling, too.

This fight could be closer than the odds indicate. Dariush is extremely solid but there are some concerns about his chin. Dober could also outpace him and win a decision if the right judges are ringside for that type of attack.

Tim Boetsch vs Omari Akhmedov

Tim Boetsch fights are hard to predict. He’s spent his UFC career all over the map. He has a wrestling base but not a great output there or with his striking.

After watching the power shots Omari Akhmedov seemingly absorbed with little issue against Marvin Vettori I made a resolution not to bet against him. That fight ended in a draw. He’s another sambo fighter who brings a blend of wrestling and striking.

A couple of longtime UFC vets clash here. Public money is coming in heavily on Akhmedov. That’s enough to push my vote his way.

Anthony Rocco Martin vs Sergio Moraes 

Anthony Rocco Martin had been building steam. He’s put a bumpy UFC start behind him, winning six of his last seven fights. His last win was a gorgeous anaconda joke of Jake Matthews.

Sergio Moraes has rediscovered his strengths as a grappler of late. He previously showed a propensity to fall in love with striking to his own detriment. So much depends on whether he chooses to lean on world class BJJ.

Martin will have a clear advantage on the feet. Moraes does have a very viable path to victory via submission as two of Martins UFC losses have been by sub. That makes Moraes a live dog, but still likely to lose a decision.

Marion Reneau vs Yana Kunitskaya

Marion Reneau is a bit long in the tooth at 42. She doesn’t have too much wear and tear with only 14 fights, though. She has clear talent but also horrendous mental lapses.

Yana Kunitskaya doesn’t look great at 1-1 in the UFC. Her loss was to Cris Cyborg, however. She got back in the win column against a very solid victory over Lina Lansberg. Kunitskaya is solid in all areas.

Kunitskaya should outwork Reneau for the win here. It would be great if she did it behind th kind of wrestling we saw here put forth against Lansberg. Reneau just showed how much trouble she has in losing to wrestler Cat Zingano

Grant Dawson vs Julian Erosa

A gifter grappler, Grant Dawson wants the fight on the mat as soon as possible. Julian Erosa’s worst enemy lately has been a fragile chin. Dawson may or may not test that, but the finish should be there for him one way or the other. Dawson has the best ITD prop of any fighter.

Maurice Greene vs Jeff Hughes

These two fought less than a year ago in another promotion. Hughes took a five round decision. It’s possible Greene has gotten better in a short window. It’s also possible things go differently in a three-round affair. There’s not as much to go on analysis wise, so I’m tempted to make a game theory play here and back Greene. It’s heavyweight, anything can happen.

Louis Smolka vs Matt Schnell

We’re coming into fight two of Louis Smolka’s return to the UFC. He got his confidence back on the regional scene and won his last fight in the Octagon. Matt Schnell seems to be a middle of the round pack fighter. He’s come up short against better UFC opponents while grabbing wins over lesser foes. Smolka’s aggression should carry the day for him here. That’s not without risk since the style exposes him to threats.

Alex Morono vs Zak Ottow

Alex Morono likes to come forward in fights. He only found moderate success with that alternating wins and losses lately. Zak Ottow likes to win ugly. He throws opponents off their game. This is a close fight. Ottow has beat better fighters but it’s a crapshoot if he can stymie an opponents gameplan effectively. He’s in trouble if not. I lean Morono to power through in this one.

Alex White vs Dan Moret

Alex White hasn’t had a great move to lightweight, going 1-3. He brings aggression on the feet and that leaves him open to takedowns at times. Most of his losses have been to fighters that put him on his back. Dan Moret unsurprisingly got stomped by Gilbert Burns in an odd opponent for a UFC debut. Moret has some grappling chops though. There’s a clear path to victory for Moret as the underdog and the line is starting to reflect it. You can get odds value on him here.

Cash Plays: JDS, Means, Dawson, Greene

The stackable main event drought continues. It’s all JDS in this one. Means and Dawson have great odds on them. Greene gets you a heavyweight’s shot at a finish while freeing up salary.

GPP Plays: Kunitskaya, Akhmedov, Ivanov, Smolka, Zaleski dos Santos, Dober, Moraes

There are plenty of tight matchups on this card. Kunitskaya could offer lower ownership, while public money is coming in on Zaleski and Akhmedov. Ivanov could be getting a free square.

Favorite Bets: JDS -220, Means -200, Kunitskaya -170.

Favorite Props: Moraes by SUB +395, Dawson by SUB +315, Green ITD +272.

Live Dogs: Zaleski dos Santos, Dober, Boetsch, Moraes, Greene, Moret.