UFC Fight Night 144 on ESPN+

The theme of this card in Brazil is close fights. The main event is a rematch of 2017’s competitive bout with the winner promised a shot at the title. There aren’t many significant odds values and only a few fighters that offer inside the distance upside for their price. Focusing on the mid-range is usually smart and it seems doubly wise here. Game theory is also more important than ever on a card where the outcomes are in doubt. Any fighter highlighted in green font is my projected winner. 

Raphael Assunção ($7400)                       vs.               Marlon Moraes ($8800)

27-5-0                                                                               21-5-1

4 KO/TKO, 10 Subs                                                         10 KO/TKO, 5 Subs

Win Streak: 4                                                                    Win Streak: 3

Odds:...