We’re still paying for the great PPV card the UFC put on a few weeks ago in the quality of matchups on these Fight Night cards. There’s still spots to attack for DFS, however. Remember we’re in the APEX Center’s smaller cage which benefits aggression and wrestling.
Playbook:
Main Event | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
Aspen Ladd vs Norma Dumont | 8400/7800 | - | Stackability: Safe | -135/ +115 | +175/+300 |
The UFC put this main event together with the broken pieces of other fights. Ladd missed weight last week so they gave her a take it or leave it fight up at 145 this week. She made weight and seems ready, although it’s not a great situation. Dumont had been scheduled to fight Holly Holm. Both ladies are a similar kind of fighter: stocky strikers with a competent ground game. Both ran into big trouble against elite strikers. Ladd has struggled when she’s lost the wrestling advantage so I’ll side with Dumont slightly. | |||||
Expensive | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
Ludovit Klein | 9200 | Nate Landwehr | Somewhat-Safe | -400 | -150 |
Ludo burst onto the UFC scene two fights ago with a throttling of Shane Young. He couldn’t duplicate the explosiveness against Mike Trizano’s karate style. Nate the train isn’t that. He comes to battle in a phone booth. The miles are showing on his chin, though. Klein is prime for a KO win. | |||||
Ramazan Emeev | 9100 | Danny Roberts | Somewhat-Safe | -350 | +200 |
There’s little mystery in Emeev’s fight plan: safe wrestling with lots of top control. It’s rare that pays very well on DK. Roberts is also live for a surprise here and there. All together, it’s not the most appealing spot. | |||||
Loopy Godinez | 9000 | Luana Carolina | Moderate | -235 | +180 |
Loopy apparently didn’t get enough work last week in her quick submission win. She’s stepped up as a late replacement in a very winnable fight this week. Carolina doesn’t have many ways to threaten her if she’s truly ready to go again. | |||||
Mid-Range | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
Manon Fiorot | 8900 | Mayra Bueno Silva | Somewhat-Safe | -255 | +150 |
Manon has torn through her first two UFC opponents. She probably continues to do so until she runs into a true grappling threat. Silva is a bit of a step up for her. She’s not likely enough on the feet to challenge Fiorot. | |||||
Ariane Carnelossi | 8500 | Istela Nunes | Moderate | -140 | +240 |
Carnelossi is a stout and strong wrestler who emulates training partner Jessica Andrade in her aggression. That gets her hit in the face a ton. We don’t know where Nunes is at after inactivity so much depends on what resistance she offers. If she’s not ready for a war Carnelossi could ragdoll her. | |||||
Danaa Batgerel | 8600 | Brandon Davis | Somewhat-Risky | -155 | +240 |
The only person in the UFC who’s been able to weather Batgerel’s power was Heili Alateng, who’s shown incredible toughness. Davis is a very tough dude but also tends to get hit a lot with his high pace style. How many of Batgerel’s heavy counters can he eat? If he wins a decision Batgerel probably needs multiple knockdowns but he has that in the cards. | |||||
Bruno Silva | 8300 | Andrew Sanchez | Somewhat-Risky | -155 | +110 |
Silva is a veteran striker with good power and aggression. He’s not a technician or particularly good grappler, however. That’s not what you want in the favorite over some like Sanchez. If he touches Sanchez’s chin early he could be a good play. Sanchez tends to play it safe in the early going, however. | |||||
Jim Miller | 8700 | Erick Gonzalez | Somewhat-Risky | -255 | +180 |
We’re always interested in Jim Miller for the first round sub. Gonzalez doesn’t defend grappling very well, either. You don’t want to see Miller go past the sixth minute, though. | |||||
Andrei Arlovski | 8200 | Carlos Felipe | Risky | -115 | +425 |
This is a vintage Arlovski spot. He’s the less dangerous man but the smarter fighter. He’ll utilize ring control and spacing to frustrate Felipe and probably take a close but boring decision. | |||||
Carlos Felipe | 8000 | Andrei Arlovski | Risky | -105 | +300 |
Felipe would need to have made some leaps in the gym. He’s mainly been a meme fighter without all that much skill. His power hasn’t registered that big at heavyweight, either. It’s the puncher’s chance for him or bust. | |||||
Pay-Downs | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
Brandon Davis | 7600 | Danaa Batgerel | Somewhat-Risky | +135 | +400 |
Killer B is making his UFC return here. He’s an unorthodox, high-volume fighter. That style poses problems for a lot of fighters, especially at lower levels. If he doesn’t eat big counters he’s got enough angles to work for a close decision win. He’s slightly live for a submission if things got messy and hit the mat. | |||||
Nate Landwehr | 7000 | Ludovit Klein | Somewhat-Risky | +300 | +650 |
Never fight a land war in Asia and never fight a stand up war with Nate Landwehr. Darren Elkins learned that the hard way. If you don’t ice him in the early going he will brawl you as hard as anybody. Klein’s cardio also looked a tad questionable in his last fight, as well. | |||||
Istela Nunes | 7700 | Ariane Carnelossi | Somewhat-Risky | +120 | +425 |
If Nunes shows up in peak shape after injury cancellation and time off she’s very live. Carnelossi needs to rush in to close distance and wrestle due to her height disadvantage. She’s wide open to bomb on while doing that. If Nunes stays of her back and has sharp striking there’s a path to a huge score. | |||||
Danny Roberts | 7100 | Ramazan Emeev | Risky | +270 | +600 |
Danny Roberts mixes moments of brilliance with far too many questionable moments and shooting himself in the foot. He’s also taken some heavy punishment on the chin in his career. Dude’s always a live underdog but be ready to have your heart broken. | |||||
Mayra Bueno Silva | 7300 | Manon Fiorot | Risky | +205 | +110 |
The paths for Silva are out-voluming Fiorot in a gritty fight against the cage (meh) or finding a takedown during an exchange to work for a submission. The later scores well but that’s not who Silva has shown herself to be. It’s risky projecting a grappling gameplan onto the fighter with the grappling advantage. | |||||
Erick Gonzalez | 7500 | Jim Miller | Risky | +205 | +425 |
Gonzalez needs to survive the early grappling exchanges and have the gas in the tank to turn up the volume in the second half of the fight. Miller can’t fight a third round, so it comes down to whether Gonzalez can steal the second. | |||||
Luana Carolina | 7200 | Sijara Eubanks | Risky | +190 | +650 |
Luana stands a chance as long as it stays on the feet. Loopy is probably a better boxer but will be at a reach disadvantage and is coming off fighting just last week. |
Core Plays:
Draftkings Core Plays | ||
Top Tier | Ludovit Klein | $9,200 |
Ramazan Emeev | $9,100 | |
Mid Tier | Danaa Batgerel | $8,600 |
Andrew Sanchez | $7,900 | |
Value Tier | Norma Dumont | $7,800 |
Fanduel Core Plays | ||
Top Tier | Ludovit Klein | $23 |
Ramazan Emeev | $22 | |
Mid Tier | Ariane Carnelossi | $16 |
Norma Dumont | $17 | |
Value Tier | Andrew Sanchez | $13 |
Vegas Plays:
Favorite Bets: Sanchez +135, Emeev -350
Favorite Props: Dumont ITD +300
Live Dogs: Dumont, Sanchez, Nunes, Davis, Landwehr, Gonzalez
Stats & Picks:
Aspen Ladd | vs | Norma Dumont |
$8,400 | DFS Salary | $7,800 |
Record: 9-1-0 | Record | Record: 6-1-0 |
6 KO/TKO (67%) | Knockouts | 0 KO/TKO (0%) |
1 SUBMISSIONS (11%) | Subs | |
-135 | Vegas Odds | +115 |
4/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
Andrei Arlovski | vs | Carlos Felipe |
$8,200 | DFS Salary | $8,000 |
Record: 31-20-0 (2 NC) | Record | Record: 11-1-0 |
17 KO/TKO (55%) | Knockouts | 6 KO/TKO (55%) |
3 SUBMISSIONS (10%) | Subs | 0 SUBMISSIONS (0%) |
-115 | Vegas Odds | -105 |
4/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
Jim Miller | vs | Erick Gonzalez |
$8,700 | DFS Salary | $7,500 |
Record: 32-16-0 (1 NC) | Record | Record: 14-5-0 |
4 KO/TKO (13%) | Knockouts | 8 KO/TKO (57%) |
18 SUBMISSIONS (56%) | Subs | 1 SUBMISSIONS (7%) |
-255 | Vegas Odds | +205 |
5/10 | Lineup Pool | 3/10 |
Manon Fiorot | vs | Mayra Bueno Silva |
$8,900 | DFS Salary | $7,300 |
Record: 7-1-0 | Record | Record: 7-1-1 |
6 KO/TKO (86%) | Knockouts | 1 KO/TKO (14%) |
0 SUBMISSIONS (0%) | Subs | |
-255 | Vegas Odds | +205 |
6/10 | Lineup Pool | 3/10 |
Nate Landwehr | vs | Ludovit Klein |
$7,000 | DFS Salary | $9,200 |
Record: 14-4-0 | Record | Record: 17-3-0 |
8 KO/TKO (57%) | Knockouts | 8 KO/TKO (47%) |
0 SUBMISSIONS (0%) | Subs | |
+300 | Vegas Odds | -400 |
3/10 | Lineup Pool2 | 7/10 |
0 | ||
Andrew Sanchez | vs | Bruno Silva |
$7,900 | DFS Salary | $8,300 |
Record: 13-6-0 | Record | Record: 20-6-0 |
6 KO/TKO (50%) | Knockouts | 17 KO/TKO (85%) |
2 SUBMISSIONS (17%) | Subs | 0 SUBMISSIONS (0%) |
+135 | Vegas Odds | -155 |
5/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
Danny Roberts | vs | Ramazan Emeev |
$7,100 | DFS Salary | $9,100 |
Record: 17-5-0 | Record | Record: 20-4-0 |
8 KO/TKO (47%) | Knockouts | 3 KO/TKO (15%) |
5 SUBMISSIONS (29%) | Subs | |
+270 | Vegas Odds | -350 |
3/10 | Lineup Pool | 5/10 |
Loopy Godinez | vs | Luana Carolina |
$9,000 | DFS Salary | $7,200 |
Record: 6-1-0 | Record | Record: 7-2-0 |
1 KO/TKO (17%) | Knockouts | 2 KO/TKO (29%) |
1 SUBMISSIONS (17%) | Subs | |
-235 | Vegas Odds | +190 |
5/10 | Lineup Pool | 3/10 |
Danaa Batgerel | vs | Brandon Davis |
$8,600 | DFS Salary | $7,600 |
Record: 9-2-0 | Record | Record: 10-8-0 |
5 KO/TKO (56%) | Knockouts | 4 KO/TKO (29%) |
2 SUBMISSIONS (22%) | Subs | |
-155 | Vegas Odds | +135 |
5/10 | Lineup Pool | 3/10 |
Istela Nunes | vs | Ariane Carnelossi |
$7,700 | DFS Salary | $8,500 |
Record: 7-1-0 (1 NC) | Record | Record: 13-2-0 |
2 KO/TKO (33%) | Knockouts | 9 KO/TKO (69%) |
0 SUBMISSIONS (0%) | Subs | 1 SUBMISSIONS (8%) |
+120 | Vegas Odds | -140 |
4/10 | Lineup Pool | 5/10 |