The PPV hangover is very much in effect this week. It’s an interesting main event and that’s about all the nice things I can say about this nine fight offering. Nevertheless, there’s DFS to play and things get crazy on these slates. Finding the right dog all but assures you a return. There are also a couple of big leverage points to attempt and exploit for GPPs.
Playbook:
Main Event | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
Mackenzie Dern vs Marina Rodriguez | 8200/8000 | - | Stackability: Safe | -190/ +160 | -120/+300 |
This main event is the best thing the card has going for it. A classic case of striker vs grappler. Marina can kickbox with anyone but gets stuck on her back and frequently 10-8’d. Dern has lethal BJJ but her wrestling is not up to par and she tends to get into brawls despite the path of least resistance available on the mat. It’s hard not to see the fight hitting the ground at some point, however. Dern’s just too good there. Barring Mackenzie getting clipped in a wild exchange she probably snatches victory from Marina at some point. A decent stack given the pace and grappling. | |||||
Expensive | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
Alexandr Romanov | 9200 | Jared Vanderaa | Somewhat-Safe | -675 | -300 |
The UFC is giving Romanov a bounceback spot here. Vanderaa is just a big ugly. He’ll give you a fight but will have a hard time winning any one area. The lack of cardio from Romanov in his first real test was a red flag. Hopefully it doesn’t rear it head again. | |||||
Steve Garcia | 9100 | Charlie Ontiveros | Somewhat-Safe | -335 | -135 |
Garcia is going to be the smaller man in this scrap. Nevertheless, Ontiveros has a major chin problem and dropping down to 155 can’t help. Garcia does hit hard. He’ll need the KO at this price and level of chalk. | |||||
Chris Gutierrez | 8900 | Felipe Colares | Moderate | -250 | +275 |
Another striker vs grappler affair here. Guitierrez is a much better technician on the feet. He’s even scored the rare UFC leg kick KO. He just can’t get off of the mat. Colares isn’t a particularly strong wrestler but does have solid BJJ. That’s a concern if the fight stays on the mat for any period. Still, Guitierrez offers the best leverage of the range. | |||||
Mid-Range | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
Sabina Mazo | 8300 | Mariya Agapova | Moderate | -170 | +275 |
Mazo feels like she should be a bigger favorite. She’s a much better fighter than Shana Dobson who tore thrown Agapova. Mazo also matches her on length, negating the one advantage she’d have. Sabina has also gutted it out in tough fights so she’s not giving up an easy KO, either. If Mazo pushes here usual pace and even mixes in some takedown it could be a huge score. | |||||
Randy Brown | 8800 | Jared Gooden | Somewhat-Risky | -235 | +110 |
Randy has improved every fight. You love to see that from young fighters. His length on the feet makes him a handful for all but the most adept strikers. He’s also polished his mat skills and uses that same length to threaten effective submissions. His only deficit has been in the toughness depart. A loss from top position to a Niko Price hammerfist KO and getting carved up by Vincente Luque show he’s not ready for top-level dog fights yet. Gooden is always ready for a dogfight. Which is a slight concern. | |||||
Loopy Godinez | 8600 | Sam Hughes | Somewhat-Risky | -310 | +275 |
This is a tough spot to evaluate this week. Loopy is a line value, getting a late replacement. She’s also very green and made critical mistakes in her debut loss. She was touted as a skilled boxer improving her grappling but she couldn’t get Jessica Penne off her back. The UFC does seem to be looking to get here win with attempts to schedule Sarah Alpar and Sam Hughes. Mostly it will come down to who Jaurez is. If she’s a complete can you’ll need Loopy. If she shows up to fight the Loopy fade will be huge with so few fights. | |||||
Matheus Nicolau | 8500 | Silvana Gómez Juárez | Somewhat-Risky | -190 | +250 |
After the UFC decided to keep the Flyweight division around Nicolau managed to find his way back into the promotion. He’s improved in his time on the regional scene with solid boxing. The Brazilian also has decent BJJ. This fight will come down to endurance, hoever. Elliott will make you fight at a pace you aren’t accustomed to. We’ve had questions about Nicolau’s endurance before so it’s not a slam-dunk he can hang with even this diminished version of Elliott. | |||||
Damon Jackson | 8400 | Charles Rosa | Risky | -180 | +225 |
I just don’t see where Jackson wins this fight. His late comeback over Mirsad Bektic was nice but Mirsad is a quitter and Jackson was getting pieced up prior. He has some effective BJJ but Rosa is a solid black belt. Maybe he can KO Rosa by just going ape the way Shane Burgos did but it’s hard to chase the spastic Rosa down. | |||||
Pay-Downs | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
Tim Elliott | 7700 | Matheus Nicolau | Somewhat-Risky | +160 | +550 |
After an injury hiatus, Elliott has gone 2-3 in the UFC. His three losses were to top 10 fighters in the division. The wins were over fighters no longer in the promotion. That makes it hard to know where his game is at these days. He can’t push the same pace he used to use as a weapon but still tries. He’s also more focus since moving to Glory MMA with James Krause. I give him the edge in what probably has to be a come-from-behind victory. | |||||
Felipe Colares | 7300 | Chris Gutierrez | Somewhat-Risky | +200 | +475 |
Colares will likely need to find a submission to win this fight. He has the skills and the toughness to keep coming in the face of a likely beating. If he pulls it off it’s a big score on a night with few good underdogs. | |||||
Jared Gooden | 7400 | Randy Brown | Somewhat-Risky | +190 | +330 |
Gooden is good in a dog fight. He’s big, tough, and hits hard if you stand still long enough. Brown’s length and improving skills make that an uphill climb. There aren’t many dogs to like this week, though. | |||||
Mariya Agapova | 7900 | Sabina Mazo | Risky | +150 | +425 |
The only path I see for Agapova is a flash KO. She’s long and aggressive so it’s possible. She’s just too raw to have any faith in. It doesn’t help that she’s jumping gyms constantly and former teammates have said she’s living a wild lifestyle. That explains her gassing so easily last fight. | |||||
Jared Vanderaa | 7000 | Alexandr Romanov | Risky | +475 | +750 |
Vanderaa came out and surprised us against Justin Tafa last fight. He had a huge grappling edge, however. That’s going the other way in this one and he could be in immediate trouble. If he manages to lean on his toughness and let Romanov wear himself out by delivering such a beating there could be a late comeback in the wings. | |||||
Charlie Ontiveros | 7100 | Steve Garcia | Risky | +260 | +475 |
Charlie has managed to knock some regional fighters out. He’s also given up his share of KO losses. He’d have to get the KO pretty quick to protect his own chin. That makes his path a well-scoring one, despite its unlikely nature. | |||||
Charles Rosa | 7800 | Damon Jackson | Risky | +155 | +450 |
I think Rosa wins this fight behind his pop shot and run style. That never scores well on DK. It will depend on whether the few other live dogs can win. If they don’t Rosa has a shot at the optimal. I wouldn’t be shocked to see a losing dog outscore him in an exciting fight, however. |
Core Plays:
Draftkings Core Plays | ||
Top Tier | Alexandr Romanov | $9,200 |
Steve Garcia | $9,100 | |
Mid Tier | Sabina Mazo | $8,300 |
Mackenzie Dern | $8,200 | |
Value Tier | Tim Elliott | $7,700 |
Fanduel Core Plays | ||
Top Tier | Alexandr Romanov | $23 |
Steve Garcia | $21 | |
Mid Tier | Randy Brown | $19 |
Sabina Mazo | $15 | |
Value Tier | Tim Elliott | $13 |
Vegas Plays:
Favorite Bets: Elliott +170, Mazo -170
Favorite Props: Derb via SUB +100
Live Dogs: Elliott, Rodriguez, Colares, Gooden, Agapova
Stats & Picks:
Mackenzie Dern | vs | Marina Rodriguez |
$8,200 | DFS Salary | $8,000 |
Record: 11-1-0 | Record | Record: 14-1-2 |
6 KO/TKO (43%) | Knockouts | 0 KO/TKO (0%) |
1 SUBMISSIONS (7%) | Subs | |
-190 | Vegas Odds | +160 |
7/10 | Lineup Pool | 3/10 |
Randy Brown | vs | Jared Gooden |
$8,800 | DFS Salary | $7,400 |
Record: 13-4-0 | Record | Record: 18-6-0 |
6 KO/TKO (46%) | Knockouts | |
5 SUBMISSIONS (38%) | Subs | |
-235 | Vegas Odds | +190 |
6/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
Tim Elliott | vs | Matheus Nicolau |
$7,700 | DFS Salary | $8,500 |
Record: 18-11-1 | Record | Record: 16-3-1 |
3 KO/TKO (18%) | Knockouts | 4 KO/TKO (25%) |
6 SUBMISSIONS (35%) | Subs | |
+170 | Vegas Odds | -200 |
4/10 | Lineup Pool | 5/10 |
Sabina Mazo | vs | Mariya Agapova |
$8,300 | DFS Salary | $7,900 |
Record: 9-2-0 | Record | Record: 9-2-0 |
2 KO/TKO (22%) | Knockouts | 3 KO/TKO (33%) |
1 SUBMISSIONS (11%) | Subs | |
-170 | Vegas Odds | +150 |
6/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
Chris Gutierrez | vs | Felipe Colares |
$8,900 | DFS Salary | $7,300 |
Record: 16-3-2 | Record | Record: 10-2-0 |
7 KO/TKO (44%) | Knockouts | 2 KO/TKO (20%) |
1 SUBMISSIONS (6%) | Subs | |
-250 | Vegas Odds | +200 |
6/10 | Lineup Pool2 | 3/10 |
0 | ||
Alexandr Romanov | vs | Jared Vanderaa |
$9,200 | DFS Salary | $7,000 |
Record: 14-0-0 | Record | Record: 12-5-0 |
5 KO/TKO (36%) | Knockouts | 7 KO/TKO (58%) |
8 SUBMISSIONS (57%) | Subs | |
-675 | Vegas Odds | +475 |
7/10 | Lineup Pool | 3/10 |
Charles Rosa | vs | Damon Jackson |
$7,800 | DFS Salary | $8,400 |
Record: 14-5-0 | Record | |
3 KO/TKO (21%) | Knockouts | 3 KO/TKO (17%) |
8 SUBMISSIONS (57%) | Subs | |
+155 | Vegas Odds | -180 |
4/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
Loopy Godinez | vs | Silvana Gomez Juarez |
$8,600 | DFS Salary | #N/A |
Record: 5-1-0 | Record | Record: 10-2-0 |
Knockouts | 6 KO/TKO (60%) | |
Subs | ||
-310 | Vegas Odds | +250 |
5/10 | Lineup Pool | 3/10 |
Steve Garcia | vs | Charlie Ontiveros |
$9,100 | DFS Salary | $7,100 |
Record: 11-4-0 | Record | Record: 11-7-0 |
8 KO/TKO (73%) | Knockouts | 4 KO/TKO (36%) |
0 SUBMISSIONS (0%) | Subs | |
-335 | Vegas Odds | +260 |
5/10 | Lineup Pool | 3/10 |