The PPV hangover is very much in effect this week. It’s an interesting main event and that’s about all the nice things I can say about this nine fight offering. Nevertheless, there’s DFS to play and things get crazy on these slates. Finding the right dog all but assures you a return. There are also a couple of big leverage points to attempt and exploit for GPPs.

Playbook:

Main Event
Fighter(s)PriceOpponentRiskOddsITD
Mackenzie Dern vs Marina Rodriguez8200/8000-Stackability: Safe-190/ +160-120/+300
This main event is the best thing the card has going for it. A classic case of striker vs grappler. Marina can kickbox with anyone but gets stuck on her back and frequently 10-8’d. Dern has lethal BJJ but her wrestling is not up to par and she tends to get into brawls despite the path of least resistance available on the mat. It’s hard not to see the fight hitting the ground at some point, however. Dern’s just too good there. Barring Mackenzie getting clipped in a wild exchange she probably snatches victory from Marina at some point. A decent stack given the pace and grappling.
      
Expensive
Fighter(s)PriceOpponentRiskOddsITD
Alexandr Romanov9200Jared VanderaaSomewhat-Safe-675-300
The UFC is giving Romanov a bounceback spot here. Vanderaa is just a big ugly. He’ll give you a fight but will have a hard time winning any one area. The lack of cardio from Romanov in his first real test was a red flag. Hopefully it doesn’t rear it head again.
Steve Garcia9100Charlie OntiverosSomewhat-Safe-335-135
Garcia is going to be the smaller man in this scrap. Nevertheless, Ontiveros has a major chin problem and dropping down to 155 can’t help. Garcia does hit hard. He’ll need the KO at this price and level of chalk.
Chris Gutierrez8900Felipe ColaresModerate-250+275
Another striker vs grappler affair here. Guitierrez is a much better technician on the feet. He’s even scored the rare UFC leg kick KO. He just can’t get off of the mat. Colares isn’t a particularly strong wrestler but does have solid BJJ. That’s a concern if the fight stays on the mat for any period. Still, Guitierrez offers the best leverage of the range.
      
Mid-Range
Fighter(s)PriceOpponentRiskOddsITD
Sabina Mazo8300Mariya AgapovaModerate-170+275
Mazo feels like she should be a bigger favorite. She’s a much better fighter than Shana Dobson who tore thrown Agapova. Mazo also matches her on length, negating the one advantage she’d have. Sabina has also gutted it out in tough fights so she’s not giving up an easy KO, either. If Mazo pushes here usual pace and even mixes in some takedown it could be a huge score.
Randy Brown8800Jared GoodenSomewhat-Risky-235+110
Randy has improved every fight. You love to see that from young fighters. His length on the feet makes him a handful for all but the most adept strikers. He’s also polished his mat skills and uses that same length to threaten effective submissions. His only deficit has been in the toughness depart. A loss from top position to a Niko Price hammerfist KO and getting carved up by Vincente Luque show he’s not ready for top-level dog fights yet. Gooden is always ready for a dogfight. Which is a slight concern.
Loopy Godinez8600Sam HughesSomewhat-Risky-310+275
This is a tough spot to evaluate this week. Loopy is a line value, getting a late replacement. She’s also very green and made critical mistakes in her debut loss. She was touted as a skilled boxer improving her grappling but she couldn’t get Jessica Penne off her back. The UFC does seem to be looking to get here win with attempts to schedule Sarah Alpar and Sam Hughes. Mostly it will come down to who Jaurez is. If she’s a complete can you’ll need Loopy. If she shows up to fight the Loopy fade will be huge with so few fights.
Matheus Nicolau8500Silvana Gómez JuárezSomewhat-Risky-190+250
After the UFC decided to keep the Flyweight division around Nicolau managed to find his way back into the promotion. He’s improved in his time on the regional scene with solid boxing. The Brazilian also has decent BJJ. This fight will come down to endurance, hoever. Elliott will make you fight at a pace you aren’t accustomed to. We’ve had questions about Nicolau’s endurance before so it’s not a slam-dunk he can hang with even this diminished version of Elliott.
Damon Jackson8400Charles RosaRisky-180+225
I just don’t see where Jackson wins this fight. His late comeback over Mirsad Bektic was nice but Mirsad is a quitter and Jackson was getting pieced up prior. He has some effective BJJ but Rosa is a solid black belt. Maybe he can KO Rosa by just going ape the way Shane Burgos did but it’s hard to chase the spastic Rosa down.
      
Pay-Downs
Fighter(s)PriceOpponentRiskOddsITD
Tim Elliott7700Matheus NicolauSomewhat-Risky+160+550
After an injury hiatus, Elliott has gone 2-3 in the UFC. His three losses were to top 10 fighters in the division. The wins were over fighters no longer in the promotion. That makes it hard to know where his game is at these days. He can’t push the same pace he used to use as a weapon but still tries. He’s also more focus since moving to Glory MMA with James Krause. I give him the edge in what probably has to be a come-from-behind victory.
Felipe Colares7300Chris GutierrezSomewhat-Risky+200+475
Colares will likely need to find a submission to win this fight. He has the skills and the toughness to keep coming in the face of a likely beating. If he pulls it off it’s a big score on a night with few good underdogs.
Jared Gooden7400Randy BrownSomewhat-Risky+190+330
Gooden is good in a dog fight. He’s big, tough, and hits hard if you stand still long enough. Brown’s length and improving skills make that an uphill climb. There aren’t many dogs to like this week, though.
Mariya Agapova7900Sabina MazoRisky+150+425
The only path I see for Agapova is a flash KO. She’s long and aggressive so it’s possible. She’s just too raw to have any faith in. It doesn’t help that she’s jumping gyms constantly and former teammates have said she’s living a wild lifestyle. That explains her gassing so easily last fight.
Jared Vanderaa7000Alexandr RomanovRisky+475+750
Vanderaa came out and surprised us against Justin Tafa last fight. He had a huge grappling edge, however. That’s going the other way in this one and he could be in immediate trouble. If he manages to lean on his toughness and let Romanov wear himself out by delivering such a beating there could be a late comeback in the wings.
Charlie Ontiveros7100Steve GarciaRisky+260+475
Charlie has managed to knock some regional fighters out. He’s also given up his share of KO losses. He’d have to get the KO pretty quick to protect his own chin. That makes his path a well-scoring one, despite its unlikely nature.
Charles Rosa7800Damon JacksonRisky+155+450
I think Rosa wins this fight behind his pop shot and run style. That never scores well on DK. It will depend on whether the few other live dogs can win. If they don’t Rosa has a shot at the optimal. I wouldn’t be shocked to see a losing dog outscore him in an exciting fight, however.

Core Plays:

Draftkings Core Plays

Top Tier

Alexandr Romanov$9,200
Steve Garcia$9,100

Mid Tier

Sabina Mazo$8,300
Mackenzie Dern$8,200
Value TierTim Elliott$7,700
   
   
Fanduel Core Plays

Top Tier

Alexandr Romanov$23
Steve Garcia$21

Mid Tier

Randy Brown$19
Sabina Mazo$15
Value TierTim Elliott$13


Vegas Plays:

Favorite Bets: Elliott +170, Mazo -170

Favorite Props: Derb via SUB +100

Live Dogs: Elliott, Rodriguez, Colares, Gooden, Agapova

 

Stats & Picks: 

Mackenzie DernvsMarina Rodriguez
$8,200DFS Salary$8,000
Record: 11-1-0RecordRecord: 14-1-2
6 KO/TKO (43%)Knockouts0 KO/TKO (0%)
1 SUBMISSIONS (7%)Subs

7 SUBMISSIONS (64%)

-190Vegas Odds+160
7/10Lineup Pool3/10
   
Randy BrownvsJared Gooden
$8,800DFS Salary$7,400
Record: 13-4-0RecordRecord: 18-6-0
6 KO/TKO (46%)Knockouts 
5 SUBMISSIONS (38%)Subs 
-235Vegas Odds+190
6/10Lineup Pool4/10
   
Tim ElliottvsMatheus Nicolau
$7,700DFS Salary$8,500
Record: 18-11-1RecordRecord: 16-3-1
3 KO/TKO (18%)Knockouts4 KO/TKO (25%)
6 SUBMISSIONS (35%)Subs

5 SUBMISSIONS (31%)

+170Vegas Odds-200
4/10Lineup Pool5/10
   
Sabina MazovsMariya Agapova
$8,300DFS Salary$7,900
Record: 9-2-0RecordRecord: 9-2-0
2 KO/TKO (22%)Knockouts3 KO/TKO (33%)
1 SUBMISSIONS (11%)Subs

4 SUBMISSIONS (44%)

-170Vegas Odds+150
6/10Lineup Pool4/10
   
Chris GutierrezvsFelipe Colares
$8,900DFS Salary$7,300
Record: 16-3-2RecordRecord: 10-2-0
7 KO/TKO (44%)Knockouts2 KO/TKO (20%)
1 SUBMISSIONS (6%)Subs

5 SUBMISSIONS (50%)

-250Vegas Odds+200
6/10Lineup Pool23/10
 0 
Alexandr RomanovvsJared Vanderaa
$9,200DFS Salary$7,000
Record: 14-0-0RecordRecord: 12-5-0
5 KO/TKO (36%)Knockouts7 KO/TKO (58%)
8 SUBMISSIONS (57%)Subs

3 SUBMISSIONS (25%)

-675Vegas Odds+475
7/10Lineup Pool3/10
   
Charles RosavsDamon Jackson
$7,800DFS Salary$8,400
Record: 14-5-0Record

Record: 18-4-1 (1 NC)

3 KO/TKO (21%)Knockouts3 KO/TKO (17%)
8 SUBMISSIONS (57%)Subs

14 SUBMISSIONS (78%)

+155Vegas Odds-180
4/10Lineup Pool4/10
   
Loopy GodinezvsSilvana Gomez Juarez
$8,600DFS Salary#N/A
Record: 5-1-0RecordRecord: 10-2-0
 Knockouts6 KO/TKO (60%)
 Subs

2 SUBMISSIONS (20%)

-310Vegas Odds+250
5/10Lineup Pool3/10
   
Steve GarciavsCharlie Ontiveros
$9,100DFS Salary$7,100
Record: 11-4-0RecordRecord: 11-7-0
8 KO/TKO (73%)Knockouts4 KO/TKO (36%)
0 SUBMISSIONS (0%)Subs

2 SUBMISSIONS (18%)

-335Vegas Odds+260
5/10Lineup Pool3/10