We’re getting a Fight Night card instead of the usual Ultimate Fighter Finale card this week. That’s mildly disappointing as it further pushes the UF product into obscurity. Maybe we can give the UFC a pass with the pandemic situation and hope for a bigger UF Finale in future seasons.
Playbook
| Main Event | ||||
| Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds |
| Edson Barboza vs Giga Chikadze | 8200/8000 | - | Stackability: Safe | -125/ +105 |
| This is a low-key great main event. Edson has fought all of the best people in two divisions and always comes to put on a show. Giga has been building a name for himself, albeit against lessor competition. This figures to be a high-level kickboxing fight. Giga is probably more accurate while Barboza is busier and more dangerous. It works as an ME stack since I think it sees the late rounds. The lack of grappling is a slight concern. I'm going to look to mix in Giga at a higher rate for the perceived leverage. | ||||
| Expensive | ||||
| Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds |
| Makhmud Muradov | 9300 | Gerald Meerschaert | Somewhat-Safe | +450 |
| Makh has always poccessed good boxing with big power. He's a patient fighter, so it doesn't always result in a quick KO. GM3 tends to go pedal to the metal which could lead to the necessary openings for an atypically quick finish. | ||||
| Mana Martinez | 9000 | Guido Cannetti | Somewhat-Safe | -265 |
| I'm not worried that Mana came in overweight for this fight. His four pound miss leads me to believe he opted to come in fresh with a fine over killing himself. He's been getting the job done in a hurry, which we love for fantasy. Guido is a step up as a vet but not that challenging of an opponent for a debut. | ||||
| Andre Petroski | 9200 | Micheal Gillmore | Moderate | -525 |
| Petroski's base is wrestling and Gillmore is certainly vulnerable to that. It's a hard price to swallow for a match up between fighters we don't know quite as much about. The Ultimate Fighter has become a sideshow with better talent prefering the Contender Series. Nevertheless, it's easy to see the potential for a big score. | ||||
| JJ Aldrich | 9100 | Vanessa Demopoulos | Moderate | -425 |
| JJ should be able to box up the shorter woman pretty easily. She's also been working on defensive wrestling in preparing for Tracy Cortez before the late replacement. Since it's women's MMA a finish is harder to find. That makes it a challenge to hit value at this price. | ||||
| Mid-Range | ||||
| Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds |
| Bryan Battle | 8600 | Gilbert Urbina | Moderate | -170 |
| Battle is getting a bit of a gift figthing in the Ultimate Fighter finale against a late replacement. Urbina leans on his toughness but that gets him in trouble just as often as it helps. Battle is a generalist who should be able to capitalize on the mismatches wherever they may be. | ||||
| Kevin Lee | 8500 | Daniel Rodriguez | Somewhat-Risky | -145 |
| I'm normally of the mindset to fade Kevin Lee. This is an intruiging spot, however. DRod is dangerous but also leaves a lot of doors open to opponents. Lee can be dangerous in his own right and the move up to 170 should help his endurance issues. | ||||
| Dustin Jacoby | 8800 | Darren Stewart | Somewhat-Risky | -195 |
| Jacoby can bang on the feet. He's also pretty durable. I don't know that he should be this big of a favorite, though. Stewart is generally durable and can be a downright handful on the nights he shows up. The rest of the time he tends to make things a sloppy affair. | ||||
| Jamall Emmers | 8300 | Pat Sabatini | Risky | -150 |
| We get the classic case of good athlete versus good technician in this fight. Emmers is the better athlete. He's got a wrestling background so that potentially limits a big part of Sabatini's game. His achilles heel has been the ring IQ. | ||||
| Alessio Di Chirico | 8900 | Abdul Razak Alhassan | Risky | -255 |
| Di Chirico will try to play matador again in this fight. He did it with swimming success in KOing Joaquin Buckley. That's no guarantee it happens again but it is a positive sign. | ||||
| Pay-Downs | ||||
| Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds |
| Pat Sabatini | 7900 | Jamall Emmers | Somewhat-Risky | +130 |
| We've got the technician side of the match up here. Sabatini is well-rounded and willing to win the fight by the most efficient path available. Emmers has questionable ring IQ so it's entirely possible he gets out-witted. | ||||
| Brady Hiestand | 7500 | Ricky Turcios | Somewhat-Risky | +130 |
| Hiestand is very raw. That could mean he struggles in this big spot or that the time to train for a UFC fight led to huge leaps in output. I don't mind taking a shot on that at this price. | ||||
| Abdul Razak Alhassan | 7300 | Alessio Di Chirico | Somewhat-Risky | +205 |
| Here we go again with Razak. He's the definition of KO or bust. After an involuntary hiatus he's yet to find his footing in the UFC. That'll happen after not training for years. Compounding that is the fact that Di Chirico just handled fellow KO artist, Joaquin Buckley, with relative ease. Still, Razak hits as hard as anyone is is an early KO waiting to happen. That'd be huge at the price. | ||||
| Vanessa Demopoulos | 7100 | JJ Aldrich | Risky | +320 |
| She's going to lose the striking exchanges. That's a given. Demopoulos is tough, though. If she can overcome the reach disparitiy and force some grappling she's a strong, stout fighter with a good submission base. | ||||
| Darren Stewart | 7400 | Dustin Jacoby | Risky | +165 |
| Stewart would like need to resort to wrestling to win this fight. He has the skill if not the desire to wrestle. Jacoby has also faded in his prior fights. It's an ugly way to win but Stewart has got it done that way before. | ||||
| Gerald Meerschaert | 6900 | Makhmud Muradov | Risky | -630 |
| The path to GM3 winning is the same as always: make the fight sloppy and find a submission during a scramble. Makh is very strong and seems like a smart fighter but we haven't seen him tested agaisnt solid UFC competition. | ||||
| Guido Cannetti | 7200 | Mana Martinez | Risky | +215 |
| UFC veterans typically have been a decent bet against big name prospects making their debut. Mana is super dangerous but what happens if he doesn't get a quick finish. Can he fight deep into the third? Will he be able to go to a second skill set if his bread and butter isn't working? These are the ways young fighters get tested. | ||||
Core Plays:
| Draftkings Core Plays | ||
Top Tier | Makhmud Muradov | $9,300 |
| Mana Martinez | $9,000 | |
Mid Tier | Kevin Lee | $8,500 |
| Bryan Battle | $8,600 | |
| Value Tier | Abdul Razak Alhassan | $7,300 |
| Fanduel Core Plays | ||
Top Tier | Andre Petroski | $22 |
| Mana Martinez | $20 | |
Mid Tier | Kevin Lee | $16 |
| Bryan Battle | $17 | |
| Value Tier | Pat Sabatini | $14 |
Vegas Plays:
Favorite Bets: Battle -170, Lee -145, Sabatini +130
Favorite Props: Alhassan via KO +330 (I’m a sucker, what can I say)
Live Dogs: Chikadze, Sabatini, Alhassan, Hiestand, Demoploulos, Stewart
Stats & Picks:
| Edson Barboza | vs | Giga Chikadze |
| $8,200 | DFS Salary | $8,000 |
| Record: 22-9-0 | Record | Record: 13-2-0 |
| Knockouts | 8 KO/TKO (62%) | |
| Subs | 1 SUBMISSIONS (8%) | |
| -125 | Vegas Odds | +105 |
| 5/10 | Lineup Pool | 5/10 |
| Bryan Battle | vs | Gilbert Urbina |
| $8,600 | DFS Salary | $7,600 |
| Record: 6-1-0 | Record | Record: 6-2-0 |
| 1 KO/TKO (20%) | Knockouts | 1 KO/TKO (17%) |
| 3 SUBMISSIONS (60%) | Subs | |
| -170 | Vegas Odds | +150 |
| 6/10 | Lineup Pool | 3/10 |
| Ricky Turcios | vs | Brady Hiestand |
| $8,700 | DFS Salary | $7,500 |
| Record: 11-2-0 | Record | Record: 6-1-0 |
| 3 KO/TKO (30%) | Knockouts | 2 KO/TKO (40%) |
| 1 SUBMISSIONS (10%) | Subs | |
| -150 | Vegas Odds | +130 |
| 6/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
| Kevin Lee | vs | Daniel Rodriguez |
| $8,500 | DFS Salary | $7,700 |
| Record: 18-6-0 | Record | Record: 15-2-0 |
| 3 KO/TKO (17%) | Knockouts | 8 KO/TKO (53%) |
| 8 SUBMISSIONS (44%) | Subs | |
| -145 | Vegas Odds | +125 |
| 6/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
| Andre Petroski | vs | Micheal Gillmore |
| $9,200 | DFS Salary | $7,000 |
| Record: 5-2-0 | Record | Record: 6-3-0 |
| 3 KO/TKO (60%) | Knockouts | 3 KO/TKO (50%) |
| 2 SUBMISSIONS (40%) | Subs | 0 SUBMISSIONS (0%) |
| -525 | Vegas Odds | +385 |
| 7/10 | Lineup Pool2 | 2/10 |
| \ | 0 | |
| Makhmud Muradov | vs | Gerald Meerschaert |
| $9,300 | DFS Salary | $6,900 |
| Record: 25-6-0 | Record | Record: 32-14-0 |
| 6 KO/TKO (19%) | Knockouts | 17 KO/TKO (68%) |
| 24 SUBMISSIONS (75%) | Subs | |
| +450 | Vegas Odds | -630 |
| 7/10 | Lineup Pool | 3/10 |
| Alessio Di Chirico | vs | Abdul Razak Alhassan |
| $8,900 | DFS Salary | $7,300 |
| Record: 13-5-0 | Record | Record: 10-4-0 |
| 10 KO/TKO (100%) | Knockouts | 6 KO/TKO (46%) |
| 0 SUBMISSIONS (0%) | Subs | |
| -255 | Vegas Odds | +205 |
| 4/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
| Sam Alvey | vs | Wellington Turman |
| $7,800 | DFS Salary | $8,400 |
| Record: 33-15-1 (1 NC) | Record | Record: 16-5-0 |
| 19 KO/TKO (58%) | Knockouts | 4 KO/TKO (25%) |
| 3 SUBMISSIONS (9%) | Subs | |
| +110 | Vegas Odds | -130 |
| 4/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
| Dustin Jacoby | vs | Darren Stewart |
| $8,800 | DFS Salary | $7,400 |
| Record: 14-5-1 | Record | |
| 9 KO/TKO (64%) | Knockouts | 7 KO/TKO (58%) |
| 1 SUBMISSIONS (7%) | Subs | 1 SUBMISSIONS (8%) |
| -195 | Vegas Odds | +165 |
| 5/10 | Lineup Pool | 3/10 |
| JJ Aldrich | vs | Vanessa Demopoulos |
| $9,100 | DFS Salary | $7,100 |
| Record: 9-4-0 | Record | Record: 6-3-0 |
| 2 KO/TKO (22%) | Knockouts | 1 KO/TKO (17%) |
| 0 SUBMISSIONS (0%) | Subs | |
| -425 | Vegas Odds | +320 |
| 4/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
| Jamall Emmers | vs | Pat Sabatini |
| $8,300 | DFS Salary | $7,900 |
| Record: 18-5-0 | Record | Record: 14-3-0 |
| 7 KO/TKO (39%) | Knockouts | 2 KO/TKO (14%) |
| 3 SUBMISSIONS (17%) | Subs | |
| -150 | Vegas Odds | +130 |
| 4/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
| Mana Martinez | vs | Guido Cannetti |
| $9,000 | DFS Salary | $7,200 |
| Record: 8-2-0 | Record | Record: 8-6-0 |
| 8 KO/TKO (100%) | Knockouts | 3 KO/TKO (38%) |
| 0 SUBMISSIONS (0%) | Subs | |
| -265 | Vegas Odds | +215 |
| 7/10 | Lineup Pool | 3/10 |