UFC Vegas 31 is experiencing some major PPV hangover, as has come to be the case more often than night. Injuries have done it no favors but it’s a shoddy card still. That usually leads to high variance and this one has the makings of a dogfest. It doesn’t seem particularly easy to pick those dogs, however. Look for grappling points where possible and hope things break your way.
The fight between Miles Johns and Anderson Dos Santos has been pulled from the card.
| Main Event | ||||
| Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds |
| Islam Makhachev vs Thiago Moises | 9400/6800 | - | Stackability: Safe | -720/ +500 |
| Not the sexiest main event of the year, that is for sure. More of a keep busy fight for Makhachev as the UFC advances him into contention. It makes sense that no one wants to fight him unless it’s a title eliminator. He’s got much of the ruthless efficiency of stablemate Khabib with none of the fanfare (yet). For all the criticism of Makh’s lack of aggression he’s scored rather well on DK against lesser competition. Moises has been a Jekyll/Hyde routine in the UFC. His striking has looked nonexistent one fight and sharp the next. We could see more prolonged striking if Makh doesn’t want to hang out in a dangerous BJJ practitioner’s guard. I’m still leaning that Moises is a rather mediocre talent and Makhachev grinds him up. | ||||
| Expensive | ||||
| Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds |
| Amanda Lemos | 9300 | Montserrat Conejo | Somewhat-Safe | -575 |
| Lemos is a safer bet to win that to score well on DK. She’s had bright spots in the UFC but also trouble at times. Conejo was brought in to lose to Cheyanne Buys and ended up embarrassing her with arm throws. That isn’t going to happen to Lemos. Besides the throws, Buys had an easy time hitting Conejo. Expect the same in this one. My main concern is too much time spent pressed against the cage without a finish. | ||||
| Rodrigo Nascimento | 9000 | Alan Baudot | Somewhat-Safe | -365 |
| As long as Nascimento doesn’t try to trade with Baudot he’ll have an easy night. Baudot has shown zero grappling defense in his career. He throws with abandon instead, knowing he won’t last long if takedown. We shouldn’t think Nasc has chin issue from one KO loss. He’s a big HW with a clear grappling based gameplan. That’s typically money in the bank. | ||||
| Daniel Rodriguez | 8800 | Preston Parsons | Moderate | -350 |
| DRod is a hard fighter to trust. He’s experienced and well-trained. Most of his outings have been at a high output, as well. Which we like. He’s gassed at the pace in a couple fights and had to come back from near unconsciousness in another. So the man will fight for your money. He just gets in his own way at times. I don’t consider this a slam dunk despite the low-level late replacement. It could play out that way but it could also be a sweat. | ||||
| Francisco Figueiredo | 8900 | Malcolm Gordon | Moderate | -305 |
| The brother to former champ Deiveson is the discount store brand Figueiredo. Looks similar, moves much the same way, but is definitely not the genuine article. That’s probably enough to pick off the lower ranks of the division, of which Gordon is certainly a part of. The man has a glass jaw and a nose for getting into trouble spots. Aggression alone probably gets it done early. | ||||
| Mid-Range | ||||
| Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds |
| Rodolfo Vieira | 8700 | Dustin Stoltzfus | Moderate | -220 |
| Vieira is clearly a risk to back. Losing to Fluffy Hernadez after gassing hard in the first round is a bad look. Harnandez is a tough SOB, however. Vieira will still put it on you for a few minutes. Maybe Stoltzfus uses his kicking game to stay safe. If not, the first round finish has a strong possibility here. | ||||
| Mateusz Gamrot | 8600 | Jeremy Stephens | Somewhat-Risky | -220 |
| The great part about Gamrot’s game is the aggressive wrestling. The downside is that it’s not exactly a power wrestling style and he has trouble holding opponents down. His striking has come a long way, in addition. Stephens will certainly force the issue. The man goes out on his shield or hangs around long enough to make you pay. It’s 50/50 in his career. | ||||
| Gabriel Benitez | 8500 | Billy Quarantillo | Somewhat-Risky | -165 |
| Benitez is a very bad matchup for Billy Q. Mogley has devastating kicks and is a sharp striker all around. Billy eats punishment all fight. He’s outlasted opponents who couldn’t keep it up. Benitez dishes the kind of punishment that alters fights, though. | ||||
| Miles Johns | 8400 | Anderson Dos Santos | Somewhat-Risky | +150 |
| Johns is another good bet to win but doesn’t have the profile to do it impressively. He’s a good athlete, with a wrestling background, and fighting out of a great camp. Striking has been his focus in the UFC lately but his height makes it tricky to bully people. | ||||
| Khalid Taha | 8300 | Sergey Morozov | Risky | -135 |
| Taha has the power to drop you with one shot. The problem is he doesn’t set his shots up all that well. He has to catch you flat-footed. | ||||
| Miesha Tate | 8200 | Marion Reneau | Risky | -145 |
| Tate should win this without much trouble. I don’t really see her finishing Reneau, though. Unless she puts on a wrestling clinic expect a modest DK score. | ||||
| Pay-Downs | ||||
| Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds |
| Sergey Morozov | 7900 | Khalid Taha | Somewhat-Risky | +115 |
| Morozov got blasted in his UFC debut by Khabib’s cousin Umar. Taha presents none of the same challenges on the ground. If Morozov can avoid leaving his head on a line he can probably wear down Taha and grind him with his own late grappling. | ||||
| Billy Quarantillo | 7700 | Gabriel Benitez | Somewhat-Risky | +145 |
| As much of a nightmare Benitez is in the first round for Billy if he finds a way to survive, he's live to win the second and third. People can’t wrap their heads around the kind of pace Billy makes you fight at until your body is shutting down. Benitez also took the fight on somewhat short notice so he may not have as full of a gas tank. | ||||
| Jeremy Stephens | 7600 | Mateusz Gamrot | Somewhat-Risky | +180 |
| Stephens either merc’s you with a blitz or gets pieced up trying. It makes for fun fights. Gamrot has the technique to be a problem for him. Technique sometimes goes out the window when faced with the kind of pressure Stephens brings, though. | ||||
| Anderson Dos Santos | 7800 | Miles Johns | Risky | -170 |
| The only real out for Dos Santos is to catch Johns with a submission somehow. He doesn’t have a great wrestling attack to get things where he needs them, however. | ||||
| Alan Baudot | 7200 | Rodrigo Nascimento | Risky | +280 |
| Baudot has some small likelihood of winning by knockout. He has hands quick enough to do it. If he gets taken down that goes out the window. | ||||
| Malcolm Gordon | 7300 | Francisco Figueiredo | Risky | +240 |
| Francisco Figueiredo brings aggression similar to his brother but without much of the polish and knack. If this happens to be the night Gordon’s chin holds up he could find a submission. There will likely be openings if it gets that far. | ||||
| Dustin Stoltzfus | 7500 | Rodolfo Vieira | Risky | +180 |
| Stoltzfus just has to last six or seven minutes to expose a winded Vieira. Sounds much easier than it is. Still, Fluffy Hernandez did it... | ||||
| Draftkings Core Plays | ||
Top Tier | Islam Makhachev | $9,400 |
| Rodrigo Nascimento | $9,000 | |
Mid Tier | Rodolfo Vieira | $8,700 |
| Mateusz Gamrot | $8,600 | |
| Value Tier | Sergey Morozov | $7,900 |
| Fanduel Core Plays | ||
Top Tier | Islam Makhachev | $23 |
| Rodrigo Nascimento | $21 | |
Mid Tier | Rodolfo Vieira | $19 |
| Mateusz Gamrot | $19 | |
| Value Tier | Miesha Tate | $13 |
Vegas Plays:
Favorite Bets: Tate -145, Morozov +115
Favorite Props: Figueiredo/Gordon FDGTD -180, Nascimento/Baudot UNDER 1.5 -150
Live Dogs: Morozov, Quarantillo, Stephens, Dos Santos, Stoltzfus
Stats & Picks:
| Islam Makhachev | vs | Thiago Moises |
| $9,400 | DFS Salary | $6,800 |
| Record: 19-1-0 | Record | Record: 15-4-0 |
| 3 KO/TKO (16%) | Knockouts | 3 KO/TKO (20%) |
| 8 SUBMISSIONS (42%) | Subs | |
| -720 | Vegas Odds | +500 |
| 7/10 | Lineup Pool | 3/10 |
| Marion Reneau | vs | Miesha Tate |
| $8,000 | DFS Salary | $8,200 |
| Record: 9-7-1 | Record | Record: 18-7-0 |
| 5 KO/TKO (56%) | Knockouts | 3 KO/TKO (17%) |
| 3 SUBMISSIONS (33%) | Subs | |
| +125 | Vegas Odds | -145 |
| 3/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
| Jeremy Stephens | vs | Mateusz Gamrot |
| $7,600 | DFS Salary | $8,600 |
| Record: 28-18-0 (1 NC) | Record | |
| 19 KO/TKO (68%) | Knockouts | 6 KO/TKO (33%) |
| 2 SUBMISSIONS (7%) | Subs | |
| +180 | Vegas Odds | -220 |
| 4/10 | Lineup Pool | 6/10 |
| Rodolfo Vieira | vs | Dustin Stoltzfus |
| $8,700 | DFS Salary | $7,500 |
| Record: 7-1-0 | Record | Record: 13-2-0 |
| 1 KO/TKO (14%) | Knockouts | 2 KO/TKO (15%) |
| 6 SUBMISSIONS (86%) | Subs | |
| -220 | Vegas Odds | +180 |
| 5/10 | Lineup Pool | 3/10 |
| Gabriel Benitez | vs | Billy Quarantillo |
| $8,500 | DFS Salary | $7,700 |
| Record: 22-9-0 | Record | Record: 15-3-0 |
| 8 KO/TKO (36%) | Knockouts | 6 KO/TKO (40%) |
| 10 SUBMISSIONS (45%) | Subs | |
| -165 | Vegas Odds | +145 |
| 5/10 | Lineup Pool2 | 5/10 |
| 0 | ||
| Daniel Rodriguez | vs | Preston Parsons |
| $8,800 | DFS Salary | $7,400 |
| Record: 14-2-0 | Record | Record: 9-2-0 |
| 7 KO/TKO (50%) | Knockouts | 0 KO/TKO (0%) |
| 4 SUBMISSIONS (29%) | Subs | |
| -350 | Vegas Odds | +270 |
| 5/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
| Amanda Lemos | vs | Montserrat Conejo |
| $9,300 | DFS Salary | $6,900 |
| Record: 9-1-1 | Record | Record: 10-1-0 |
| 6 KO/TKO (67%) | Knockouts | 3 KO/TKO (30%) |
| 2 SUBMISSIONS (22%) | Subs | |
| -575 | Vegas Odds | +410 |
| 6/10 | Lineup Pool | 2/10 |
| Khalid Taha | vs | Sergey Morozov |
| $8,300 | DFS Salary | $7,900 |
| Record: 13-3-0 (1 NC) | Record | Record: 16-4-0 |
| 9 KO/TKO (69%) | Knockouts | 8 KO/TKO (50%) |
| 2 SUBMISSIONS (15%) | Subs | |
| -135 | Vegas Odds | +115 |
| 4/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
| Miles Johns | vs | Anderson Dos Santos |
| $8,400 | DFS Salary | $7,800 |
| Record: 11-1-0 | Record | Record: 21-8-0 |
| 3 KO/TKO (27%) | Knockouts | 5 KO/TKO (24%) |
| 2 SUBMISSIONS (18%) | Subs | |
| +150 | Vegas Odds | -170 |
| 5/10 | Lineup Pool | 3/10 |
| Francisco Figueiredo | vs | Malcolm Gordon |
| $8,900 | DFS Salary | $7,300 |
| Record: 12-3-1 (1 NC) | Record | Record: 12-5-0 |
| 3 KO/TKO (25%) | Knockouts | 4 KO/TKO (33%) |
| 7 SUBMISSIONS (58%) | Subs | |
| -305 | Vegas Odds | +240 |
| 5/10 | Lineup Pool | 3/10 |
| Alan Baudot | vs | Rodrigo Nascimento |
| $7,200 | DFS Salary | $9,000 |
| Record: 8-2-0 | Record | |
| 7 KO/TKO (88%) | Knockouts | 2 KO/TKO (25%) |
| 0 SUBMISSIONS (0%) | Subs | |
| +280 | Vegas Odds | -365 |
| 3/10 | Lineup Pool | 5/10 |