We sail on through the sea of Fight Night Vegas cards the UFC has become. There are some clear fights to target with leverage opportunities. Remember things get unpredictable in the smaller APEX Center cage.
| Main Event | ||||
| Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds |
| Ciryl Gane vs Alexander Volkov | 8700/7500 | - | Stackability: Safe | -155/ +130 |
| While this probably won’t be a brawl, it’s one of the best technical kickboxing fights the UFC could have made at HW. Volkov is always game and Gane has been passing every test. Both guys like to fight from the outside: Volkov with his reach, Gane with his speed. Gane does have a slight grappling edge if things manage to somehow get there. It’s more likely five rounds of a chess match. That makes it a safe cash stack. Give me Gane to win with raw athleticism carrying 3 rounds to two. | ||||
| Expensive | ||||
| Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds |
| Julia Avila | 9300 | Julija Stoliarenko | Somewhat-Safe | -375 |
| Avila is the far superior athlete and fighter. She showed a weakness in the takedown defense, which probably crops back up at some point but not here. Don’t love that she still hasn’t moved to a bigger camp yet. We’ll see if aggression is enough to score big against a tough chick in Stoliarenko. | ||||
| Renato Moicano | 9400 | Jai Herbert | Somewhat-Safe | -250 |
| Moicano is the better boxer, has a lethal BJJ game, and typically solid pace. His chin has faltered in too many spots, however. If it holds up he smashes the raw Herbert, likely via submission. | ||||
| Shavkat Rakhmonov | 9100 | Michel Prazeres | Moderate | -300 |
| Shavkat is a surprisingly big favorite here. Prazeres isn’t near as dangerous up at 170 but he’s still got a vice grip. Shavkat is untested but promising. It’s going to be fun matchup. If Shavkat doesn’t slip up he’ll work Prazeres on the feet and be too big in the grappling. | ||||
| Warlley Alves | 9200 | Jeremiah Wells | Somewhat-Risky | -225 |
| Don’t blink in this one. Alves only has one dangerous round in him and Wells likes to come out strong, as well. That probably favors the veteran but we’ve been stung by Warley plenty before. | ||||
| Mid-Range | ||||
| Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds |
| Andre Fili | 8900 | Daniel Pineda | Moderate | -225 |
| I’m all about Fili this week. He’s as tough as they come and is unlikely to be overwhelmed by the blitzing Pineda. That's Pineda's only card and he folds up like a cheap suit soon after. Fili tends to win decisions but I have a feeling that changes here and he gets the rare finish. | ||||
| Tim Means | 8400 | Nicolas Dalby | Somewhat-Risky | -140 |
| Means can be unreliable but he always comes to scrape. He loves to make opponents work at an accelerated pace. If he manages to keep Dalby off him enough he’ll likely land in bunches to take two of three rounds. | ||||
| Raoni Barcelos | 8800 | Timur Valiev | Somewhat-Risky | -225 |
| This is a dangerous fight but Raoni only gets dangerous fights these days. Timur gets after it early and that has the potential to cause some drama. It could also be great fight that doesn’t reflect well in the fantasy scoring, however. | ||||
| Marcin Prachnio | 9000 | Ike Villanueva | Somewhat-Risky | -200 |
| If Prachnio doesn’t get knocked cold he can easily out-work Villanueva and possibly earn a stoppage. It’s going to be hairy. He might have survived against Rountree but he ate the usual punishment that’s been a problem. Plus he’s priced up. | ||||
| Damir Hadzovic | 8500 | Yancy Medeiros | Risky | -150 |
| Hadzovic's fighting style is as square as his head. He comes straight at you, mixing in some low kicks. Yancy tends to struggle when fighters stick to a game plan, though. If Damir does start to land heavy shots a finish could be in the cards. Medieros is durable but has his limits. | ||||
| Kennedy Nzechukwu | 8200 | Danilo Marques | Risky | -135 |
| Can Kennedy surprise for a second straight win? He’s a big dude and hard to handle. If Marques fails to hold him down the return fire will be a problem. For all Nzechukwu’s flaws, takedown defense and a get up game tend to be there. | ||||
| Danilo Marques | 8000 | Kennedy Nzechukwu | Risky | +110 |
| Marques has won two UFC fights against all odds somehow, though. Through top heavy wrestling, to be precise. That’ll take you places in MMA. It also pays in fantasy scoring. | ||||
| Pay-Downs | ||||
| Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds |
| Ike Villanueva | 7200 | Marcin Prachnio | Somewhat-Risky | +165 |
| Ike is durable enough to get in to exchanges and capitalize when Pracnio inevitably drops his hands. It’ll depend on how much gas Villanueva has left to put on his punches when it happens. He barely got there against tin can Vince Morreira. | ||||
| Jeremiah Wells | 7000 | Warlley Alves | Somewhat-Risky | +190 |
| Wells is a wildcard. He’s had a long layoff and only 11 fights. He also comes out aggressive. Did he make a leap during his time off? Does he have more gas the Alves (who has very little)? It’s a very tempting price, much like Terrance McKinney last week. | ||||
| Timur Valiev | 7400 | Raoni Barcelos | Somewhat-Risky | +180 |
| Timur is a dangerous fighter. It’s the kind of spot that pays to be aggressive at this pricing in the long run. Can he go three hard rounds with Raoni is the main concern. Barcelos isn’t easily finished. It’s still a cage fight, though. | ||||
| Yancy Medeiros | 7700 | Damir Hadzovic | Somewhat-Risky | +125 |
| Yancy would have a much easier time if he grappled some. We can’t confidently predict that. IF he does, Hadzovic is a fish in a barrel. If not, he probably loses a back and forth kick-boxing bout where he gets the worse of it. | ||||
| Ovince Saint Preux | 7900 | Tanner Boser | Somewhat-Risky | +150 |
| OSP isn’t that appealing in this fight. Boser doesn’t brawl and tends to keep his neck safe. Those are OSP’s two main upset specials. Maybe he’s able to grit out a win based on damage. | ||||
| Michel Prazeres | 7100 | Shavkat Rakhmonov | Risky | +250 |
| The combination of being age 39 and coming off a USADA ban don’t make Prazeres all that appealing. He did look in good shape at the weigh-ins, though. The man still has deadly submission skills. His best work was done down a weight-class coming in heavy, however. | ||||
| Jai Herbert | 6800 | Renato Moicano | Risky | +200 |
| Herbert is a flashy striker that has a shot to crack Moicano’s problem chin for as long as he’s standing. Moicano is levels better, both in the striking and the grappling, however. | ||||
| Nicolas Dalby | 7800 | Tim Means | Risky | +115 |
| Dalby’s relentless grappling has earned two razor thin wins in the UFC of late. The lanky Means is a solid wrestler but not immune to strong grapplers getting inside him. The problem is Dalby tends to just hang out once inside. | ||||
| Justin Jaynes | 7600 | Charles Rosa | Risky | +145 |
| Rosa can shrink away if he gets punched in the face a few times. He's tough to put away, however. | ||||
Core Plays:
| Draftkings Core Plays | ||
Top Tier | Renato Moicano | $9,400 |
| Julia Avila | $9,300 | |
Mid Tier | Andre Fili | $8,900 |
| Timur Valiev | $7,400 | |
| Value Tier | Ike Villanueva | $7,200 |
| Fanduel Core Plays | ||
Top Tier | Renato Moicano | $20 |
| Julia Avila | $23 | |
Mid Tier | Tim Means | $16 |
| Timur Valiev | $10 | |
| Value Tier | Jeremiah Wells | $9 |
Vegas Plays:
Favorite Bets: Fili -225, Means -140, Moicano -250
Favorite Props: Villanueva ITD +250, Wells ITD +400
Live Dogs: Volkov, Villanueva, Wells, Valiev, Medieros, Dalby, Prazeres
Stats & Picks:
| Ciryl Gane | vs | Alexander Volkov |
| $8,700 | DFS Salary | $7,500 |
| Record: 8-0-0 | Record | Record: 33-8-0 |
| 3 KO/TKO (38%) | Knockouts | 22 KO/TKO (67%) |
| 3 SUBMISSIONS (38%) | Subs | 3 SUBMISSIONS (9%) |
| -155 | Vegas Odds | +130 |
| 6/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
| Tanner Boser | vs | Ovince Saint Preux |
| $8,300 | DFS Salary | $7,900 |
| Record: 19-8-1 | Record | Record: 25-15-0 |
| 10 KO/TKO (53%) | Knockouts | 12 KO/TKO (48%) |
| 2 SUBMISSIONS (11%) | Subs | |
| -185 | Vegas Odds | +150 |
| 4/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
| Raoni Barcelos | vs | Timur Valiev |
| $8,800 | DFS Salary | $7,400 |
| Record: 16-1-0 | Record | |
| 8 KO/TKO (50%) | Knockouts | 5 KO/TKO (29%) |
| 2 SUBMISSIONS (13%) | Subs | |
| -225 | Vegas Odds | +180 |
| 4/10 | Lineup Pool | 5/10 |
| Andre Fili | vs | Daniel Pineda |
| $8,900 | DFS Salary | $7,300 |
| Record: 21-8-0 | Record | |
| 9 KO/TKO (43%) | Knockouts | 9 KO/TKO (33%) |
| 3 SUBMISSIONS (14%) | Subs | |
| -225 | Vegas Odds | +190 |
| 6/10 | Lineup Pool | 3/10 |
| Tim Means | vs | Nicolas Dalby |
| $8,400 | DFS Salary | $7,800 |
| Record: 31-12-1 (1 NC) | Record | |
| 19 KO/TKO (61%) | Knockouts | 6 KO/TKO (32%) |
| 5 SUBMISSIONS (16%) | Subs | |
| -140 | Vegas Odds | +115 |
| 5/10 | Lineup Pool2 | 4/10 |
| 0 | ||
| Renato Moicano | vs | Jai Herbert |
| $9,400 | DFS Salary | $6,800 |
| Record: 14-4-1 | Record | Record: 10-2-0 |
| 0 KO/TKO (0%) | Knockouts | 8 KO/TKO (80%) |
| 7 SUBMISSIONS (50%) | Subs | |
| -250 | Vegas Odds | +200 |
| 6/10 | Lineup Pool | 3/10 |
| Kennedy Nzechukwu | vs | Danilo Marques |
| $8,200 | DFS Salary | $8,000 |
| Record: 8-1-0 | Record | Record: 11-2-0 |
| 5 KO/TKO (63%) | Knockouts | 4 KO/TKO (36%) |
| 0 SUBMISSIONS (0%) | Subs | |
| -135 | Vegas Odds | +110 |
| 4/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
| Shavkat Rakhmonov | vs | Michel Prazeres |
| $9,100 | DFS Salary | $7,100 |
| Record: 13-0-0 | Record | Record: 26-3-0 |
| 7 KO/TKO (54%) | Knockouts | 1 KO/TKO (4%) |
| 6 SUBMISSIONS (46%) | Subs | |
| -300 | Vegas Odds | +250 |
| 5/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
| Warlley Alves | vs | Jeremiah Wells |
| $9,200 | DFS Salary | $7,000 |
| Record: 15-4-0 | Record | Record: 8-2-1 |
| 4 KO/TKO (29%) | Knockouts | 3 KO/TKO (38%) |
| 6 SUBMISSIONS (43%) | Subs | |
| -225 | Vegas Odds | +190 |
| 4/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
| Marcin Prachnio | vs | Ike Villanueva |
| $9,000 | DFS Salary | $7,200 |
| Record: 14-5-0 | Record | Record: 18-11-0 |
| 10 KO/TKO (71%) | Knockouts | 15 KO/TKO (83%) |
| 1 SUBMISSIONS (7%) | Subs | 0 SUBMISSIONS (0%) |
| -200 | Vegas Odds | +165 |
| 4/10 | Lineup Pool | 5/10 |
| Julia Avila | vs | Julija Stoliarenko |
| $9,300 | DFS Salary | $6,900 |
| Record: 8-2-0 | Record | Record: 9-5-1 |
| 4 KO/TKO (50%) | Knockouts | 0 KO/TKO (0%) |
| 1 SUBMISSIONS (13%) | Subs | |
| -375 | Vegas Odds | +280 |
| 7/10 | Lineup Pool | 2/10 |
| Charles Rosa | vs | Justin Jaynes |
| $8,600 | DFS Salary | $7,600 |
| Record: 13-5-0 | Record | Record: 16-7-0 |
| 3 KO/TKO (23%) | Knockouts | 8 KO/TKO (50%) |
| 8 SUBMISSIONS (62%) | Subs | |
| -175 | Vegas Odds | +145 |
| 4/10 | Lineup Pool | 3/10 |
| Yancy Medeiros | vs | Damir Hadzovic |
| $7,700 | DFS Salary | $8,500 |
| Record: 15-7-0 (1 NC) | Record | Record: 13-6-0 |
| 8 KO/TKO (53%) | Knockouts | 7 KO/TKO (54%) |
| 4 SUBMISSIONS (27%) | Subs | |
| +125 | Vegas Odds | -150 |
| 4/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |