This card has taken some hits. Diego Sanchez pulled out when his CTE was muted enough for some brain clarity. Two fights have been scrapped on weigh in day. The remaining fights are the ones I was most excited for anyway, at least. There should be plenty of variance so feel free to get a little weird. 

UPDATE: Tonight's fight between Amanda Ribas and Angela Hill has been CANCELLED. The card is now down to nine fights.

 

Main Event
Fighter(s)PriceOpponentRiskOdds
Marina Rodriguez vs Michelle Waterson9200/7000-Stackability: Safe-210/ 175
This is a fun main event giving the short notice constraints. Both woman are angling to take one step closer to the top. Waterson has an edge based on her trip game, which could be a problem for the rangy Rodriguez. Marina is probably the more dangerous fighter, though. It should be safe to stack in cash. I like the Waterson side in GPPs for the possible grappling bump over five rounds.
     
Expensive
Fighter(s)PriceOpponentRiskOdds
Ludovit Klein9400Michael TrizanoSomewhat-Safe-245
Klein smoked out a very tough Shane Young in his debut. Trizano is a more nuanced striker with his karate style but he's probably going to get caught at some point. It all depends on what round at this price.
Geoff Neal9000Neil MagnyModerate-190
I like Neal to rebound here. Magny could grind on him but I see Neal's strength and punching power being able to answer that. It could be decent leverage after Neal lost to Stephen Thompson.
Marcos Rogerio de Lima9100Maurice GreeneSomewhat-Risky-190
Marcos has literally alternated wins and loses his entire UFC career and it's time for the W. I don't actually buy into that but I do take away that he does not go the distance one way or the other. Either he can sub you, KO you, or he's out of gas in five minutes and a sitting duck.
     
Mid-Range
Fighter(s)PriceOpponentRiskOdds
Tafon Nchukwi8500Junyong ParkModerate-140
For a guy as dangerous as Tafon is I love this price. UFC debuts can be lackluster and people are dinging Tafon for his. He still won busy fight. I'm pretty low on Park, as well.
Donald Cerrone8400Alex MoronoSomewhat-Risky-190
Cowboy just does everything better than Morono. If he doesn't get KO'd he will out-pace and possibly out grapple Morono. Don't rule a finish out if Cowboy can land a high kick.
Gregor Gillespie8900Diego FerreiraSomewhat-Risky-160
It's hurts to pick against Gregor but this is a mad matchup. He will have the wrestling edge, as always, but CDF is a great scrambler and has world class BJJ. If Gregor can avoid the danger he'll rack up huge takedown number, though.
Kyle Daukaus8300Phil HawesSomewhat-Risky-130
Daukaus is going to break through at some point. It could be here against Hawes, who tends to tire badly with his over-muscled frame. A finish at $8300 is a must have.
Carlston Harris8600Christian AguileraSomewhat-Risky-155
Harris is a legit grappler and Aguilera is baaad on the ground. It's hairy taking a big stab on debutants but Harris has fought (and beat) guys that went on to the UFC. Not too mention Aguilera has a shot chin.
Amanda Ribas8800Angela HillRisky-185
IF Ribas were to focus on the grappling I'd be much more interested. She had that same advantage over Marina Rodriguez and wasted it, however. Hill's achilles heel is her submission game.
     
Pay-Downs
Fighter(s)PriceOpponentRiskOdds
Diego Ferreira7300Gregor GillespieSomewhat-Risky140
As a guy who's boxing just keeps getting better and better Ferreira is a very interesting dog. Gregor's striking is very wooden and he has some chin issues. Ferreira will get taken down but has the get up game, and BJJ, to weather some of that.
Phil Hawes7900Kyle DaukausSomewhat-Risky110
Hawes is still a KO or bust prop in my eyes, despite his last grinding win. And it's an early KO when it happens, so you can't ignore him.
Alex Morono7800Donald CerroneSomewhat-Risky165
Morono has been going more YOLO of late in the first round. That could be a problem for Cowboy, who gets hurt almost every fight and sometimes doesn't survive.
Neil Magny7200Geoff NealRisky165
Magny would likely win behind grappling, so he's worth mentioning. His range could also cause Neal some problems.
Angela Hill7400Amanda RibasRisky160
If Angie can pull the upset she'll likely be busy. Ribas' chin issue also resurfaced last fight. Hill isn't a huge puncher but she can be nasty in the clinch.
Maurice Greene7100Marcos Rogerio de LimaRisky165
If Greene weathers the early storm he's probably going to knock de Lima out in the second. That works at $7100.
Junyong Park7700Tafon NchukwiRisky+120
I suppose Park could hold Tafon against the cage for long stretches and squeek out a win. I don't see it, though. I mention it since the betting market pushed the Park side.

 

Draftkings Core Plays
Top Tier
Geoff Neal$9,000
Ludovit Klein$9,400
Mid Tier
Tafon Nchukwi$8,500
Donald Cerrone$8,400
Value TierMichelle Waterson$7,000
   
   
Fanduel Core Plays
Top Tier
Geoff Neal$20
Ludovit Klein$23
Mid Tier
Tafon Nchukwi$17
Carlston Harris$18
Value TierDiego Ferreira$10

 

Vegas Plays:

 

Favorite Bets: Waterson +175, Nchukwi -140

Favorite Props: Greene ITD +260, 

Live Dogs: Waterson, Ferreira, Hill, Magny, Greene 

 

Stats & Picks: 

 

Marina RodriguezvsMichelle Waterson
$9,200DFS Salary$7,000
Record: 13-1-2RecordRecord: 18-8-0
6 KO/TKO (46%)Knockouts 
1 SUBMISSIONS (8%)Subs 
-210Vegas Odds175
4/10Lineup Pool4/10
   
Donald CerronevsAlex Morono
$8,400DFS Salary$7,800
Record: 36-15-0 (2 NC)Record
Record: 18-7-0 (1 NC)
10 KO/TKO (28%)Knockouts5 KO/TKO (28%)
17 SUBMISSIONS (47%)Subs
6 SUBMISSIONS (33%)
-190Vegas Odds165
6/10Lineup Pool4/10
   
Neil MagnyvsGeoff Neal
$7,200DFS Salary$9,000
Record: 24-9-0RecordRecord: 13-3-0
7 KO/TKO (29%)Knockouts 
3 SUBMISSIONS (13%)Subs 
165Vegas Odds-190
4/10Lineup Pool5/10
   
Maurice GreenevsMarcos Rogerio de Lima
$7,100DFS Salary$9,100
Record: 9-6-0RecordRecord: 17-8-1
2 KO/TKO (22%)Knockouts13 KO/TKO (76%)
5 SUBMISSIONS (56%)Subs
2 SUBMISSIONS (12%)
165Vegas Odds-190
6/10Lineup Pool4/10
   
Diego FerreiravsGregor Gillespie
$7,300DFS Salary$8,900
Record: 17-3-0RecordRecord: 13-1-0
3 KO/TKO (18%)Knockouts6 KO/TKO (46%)
7 SUBMISSIONS (41%)Subs
5 SUBMISSIONS (38%)
140Vegas Odds-160
5/10Lineup Pool25/10
 0 
Amanda RibasvsAngela Hill
$8,800DFS Salary$7,400
Record: 10-2-0RecordRecord: 13-9-0
3 KO/TKO (30%)Knockouts5 KO/TKO (38%)
4 SUBMISSIONS (40%)Subs0 SUBMISSIONS (0%)
-185Vegas Odds160
4/10Lineup Pool4/10
   
Phil HawesvsKyle Daukaus
$7,900DFS Salary$8,300
Record: 10-2-0RecordRecord: 10-1-0
7 KO/TKO (70%)Knockouts 
2 SUBMISSIONS (20%)Subs 
110Vegas Odds-130
4/10Lineup Pool5/10
   
Ludovit KleinvsMichael Trizano
$9,400DFS Salary$6,800
Record: 17-2-0RecordRecord: 9-1-0
8 KO/TKO (47%)Knockouts2 KO/TKO (25%)
8 SUBMISSIONS (47%)Subs
2 SUBMISSIONS (25%)
-245Vegas Odds#N/A
7/10Lineup Pool2/10
   
Junyong ParkvsTafon Nchukwi
$7,700DFS Salary$8,500
Record: 12-4-0RecordRecord: 5-0-0
5 KO/TKO (42%)Knockouts4 KO/TKO (80%)
3 SUBMISSIONS (25%)Subs0 SUBMISSIONS (0%)
+120Vegas Odds-140
2/10Lineup Pool8/10
   
Christian AguileravsCarlston Harris
$7,600DFS Salary$8,600
Record: 14-7-0RecordRecord: 15-4-0
11 KO/TKO (79%)Knockouts4 KO/TKO (27%)
0 SUBMISSIONS (0%)Subs
4 SUBMISSIONS (27%)
135Vegas Odds-155
2/10Lineup Pool6/10