We get back to Vegas for a Fight Night card and hopefully a more predictable night of fights. The main event could go either way and should be a fireworks show. We have some potential wrestlers to target so stay after those grappling points.
| Main Event | |||||
| Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Dominick Reyes vs Jiri Prochazka | 7900/8300 | - | Stackability: Safe | +110/ -120 | +185/+110 |
| This should shape up as a very fun main event. Jiri is the unconventional fighter to come along in good while and is having legit success. Reyes has lost two straight but account for those coming to Jon Jones and Jan Blachowicz and a win puts him right back into top contender status. Jiri’s bizarre aggression plays very well with Reyes crisp counter-punching. Mainly, this comes down to Jiri being able to continue eating flush chin shots while doing his thing. That’s very hard to count on at the level and weight. I’m going to take the leverage on Reyes, personally, but one of these fighters is a must in all lineups. | |||||
| Expensive | |||||
| Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Sean Strickland | 9200 | Krzysztof Jotko | Somewhat-Safe | -265 | +190 |
| Strickland is making hay after returning from a layoff due to a motorcycle accident. His boxing looks as good as ever and he seems to have a calm in the cage. That’s bad news for Jotko, someone that needs the technical edge to find wins. Add in that Jotko still has chin issues and he can’t eat too many clean shots. | |||||
| Merab Dvalishvili | 9000 | Cody Stamann | Moderate | -240 | +490 |
| They call Merab the machine for good reason. He will grind his wrestling bell to bell. Stamann may be good enough to limit his takedowns. He may also just be good enough to get back up from them, leading to more takedown opps. It’s a very close fight but Merab has a ceiling like no one else. My gut says it’s a razor thin win, though. | |||||
| Andreas Michailidis | 9100 | KB Bhullar | Moderate | -230 | -115 |
| I’m interested in Michailidis because he tends to win early or not at all. Bhullar showed he’s susceptible to being knocked out in his short notice debut. Plus he has tall man defense. | |||||
| Loma Lookboonmee | 9400 | Sam Hughes | Moderate | -390 | +280 |
| The moderate tag on Loma is for a probable decision win with no grappling. Not great as the most expensive fighter. That’s not to say there isn’t a path for her to smash. Hughes got lit up by another decision machine in Tecia Torres. She threw in the towel after one round of punishment. | |||||
| Mid-Range | |||||
| Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Ion Cutelaba | 8200 | Dustin Jacoby | Moderate | -135 | +100 |
| I’m no Cutelaba fan but can’t deny this is a good spot. Jacoby has to kickbox with him and opens himself up to Cutelaba’s power. Ion can also pull out some very solid wrestling and grind Jacoby up that way as well (if he’s smart). Here’s hoping it’s a good performance free from theatrics. | |||||
| Giga Chikadze | 8600 | Cub Swanson | Somewhat-Risky | -165 | +275 |
| I really like Giga in this spot. Fading Cub is going to pay off long term. It cost us last time when Daniel Pineida gassed early from hitting Cub too many times. Giga’s not going to do that. He’ll pick Cub apart until he forces a mistake and makes him pay. | |||||
| Gabriel Benitez | 8800 | Jonathan Pearce | Somewhat-Risky | -185 | +120 |
| Mogley missing weight after moving down is tough to read. I don’t like that he’s cutting more weight after having been KO’d some in the past but he missed by 5 lbs, so is it going to affect him the same? He’s a tough fighter to cap. Someone with dangerous kicks is never fun to bet against. He also has shown to be inconsistent. | |||||
| Poliana Botelho | 8900 | Luana Carolina | Somewhat-Risky | -260 | +348 |
| This price tag is all about opponent. Carolina is just a warm body to the UFC. She got knee barred in the most bizarre way by Ariane Lipski last fight. Botelho should be able to out muscle and submit her. It really comes down to how early. | |||||
| Kai Kamaka | 8400 | TJ Brown | Risky | -145 | #N/A |
| We ended up disappointed by Kamaka in his last fight as he got out-worked and out-wrestled. Still, his striking talent is immense. MMA progress comes with ups and downs. I think he gets back in the win column but Brown is sort of the same mold: talented but mistake prone. I wouldn’t be shocked by any outcome. | |||||
| Luana Pinheiro | 8500 | Randa Markos | Risky | -155 | +275 |
| Pinheiro is an up and comer but Markos will do what she does even in a loss. You can’t out grapple her and she’s good defensively on the feet making things tough. Unless we get a surprise performance I can’t see value in this spot. | |||||
| Pay-Downs | |||||
| Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| TJ Brown | 7800 | Kai Kamaka | Somewhat-Risky | +125 | +325 |
| Brown can hang with anybody but also lose to anybody. I can’t tell you if he looks sharp only to make the big mistake yet again or struggles and finds a rabbit in his hat. His fights are high-paced so we target both sides and cross our fingers. | |||||
| KB Bhullar | 7100 | Andreas Michailidis | Somewhat-Risky | +190 | +390 |
| If you back Bhullar the first round will be a hell of a sweat. Michailidis can be beat in the second half of fight’s, however. For the price, it’s a worthwhile stab. | |||||
| Randa Markos | 7700 | Luana Pinheiro | Somewhat-Risky | +145 | +535 |
| Women’s MMA and UFC vets giving a lesson to newcomers, a tale as old as time. | |||||
| Cody Stamann | 7200 | Merab Dvalishvili | Risky | +220 | +500 |
| For Stamann to win he’ll need to stuff takedowns and pop up from the ones Merab does land. If he’s able to do that and stay aggressive his boxing can get him the decision. That doesn’t add up to a DK smash but could be solid if your expensive fighters do their part. | |||||
| Cub Swanson | 7600 | Giga Chikadze | Risky | +155 | +370 |
| For as washed as I think he is Swanson is always a live dog. My guess is that a ton depends on whether he’s coming out of a fight camp healthy, which is less often as he’s aging. The best path would be grappling and submitting Giga. Cub isn’t a dedicated wrestler and Giga’s grappling has been improving, however. | |||||
| Jonathan Pearce | 7400 | Gabriel Benitez | Risky | +170 | +315 |
| If Pearce can keep his lights on he showed in his win over Kai Kamaka why he’s dangerous: he’s just going to keep coming at you. Benitez may be prime for that kind of upset after a tough weight cut. | |||||
| Felipe Colares | 7500 | Luke Sanders | Risky | +120 | +270 |
| Corales doesn’t belong in the UFC but he gets to give one more loss on his way out the door. If he were going to pull of a win it would be after Sanders tires from landing too many punches and catching him in submission like a guillotine. | |||||
| Draftkings Core Plays | ||
Top Tier | Sean Strickland | $9,200 |
| Loma Lookboonmee | $9,400 | |
Mid Tier | Ion Cutelaba | $8,200 |
| Giga Chikadze | $8,600 | |
| Value Tier | Dominick Reyes | $7,900 |
| Fanduel Core Plays | ||
Top Tier | Sean Strickland | $22 |
| Merab Dvalishvili | $23 | |
Mid Tier | Ion Cutelaba | $15 |
| Dominick Reyes | $18 | |
| Value Tier | TJ Brown | $14 |
Favorite Bets: Strickland -265, Chikadze -165
Favorite Props: Botelho ITD +350, Cutelaba via SUB +1000
Live Dogs: Reyes, Stamann, Pearce, Bhullar, Collares, Jacoby
Stats & Picks:
| Dominick Reyes | vs | Jiri Prochazka |
| $7,900 | DFS Salary | $8,300 |
| Record: 12-2-0 | Record | Record: 27-3-1 |
| 7 KO/TKO (58%) | Knockouts | 24 KO/TKO (89%) |
| 2 SUBMISSIONS (17%) | Subs | 2 SUBMISSIONS (7%) |
| +110 | Vegas Odds | -120 |
| 5/10 | Lineup Pool | 5/10 |
| Giga Chikadze | vs | Cub Swanson |
| $8,600 | DFS Salary | $7,600 |
| Record: 12-2-0 | Record | Record: 27-11-0 |
| 7 KO/TKO (58%) | Knockouts | 12 KO/TKO (44%) |
| 1 SUBMISSIONS (8%) | Subs | 4 SUBMISSIONS (15%) |
| -165 | Vegas Odds | +155 |
| 6/10 | Lineup Pool | 3/10 |
| Ion Cutelaba | vs | Dustin Jacoby |
| $8,200 | DFS Salary | $8,000 |
| Record: 15-6-0 (1 NC) | Record | Record: 14-5-0 |
| 12 KO/TKO (80%) | Knockouts | 9 KO/TKO (64%) |
| 2 SUBMISSIONS (13%) | Subs | 1 SUBMISSIONS (7%) |
| -135 | Vegas Odds | +125 |
| 7/10 | Lineup Pool | 3/10 |
| Sean Strickland | vs | Krzysztof Jotko |
| $9,200 | DFS Salary | $7,000 |
| Record: 22-3-0 | Record | Record: 22-4-0 |
| 10 KO/TKO (45%) | Knockouts | 6 KO/TKO (27%) |
| 4 SUBMISSIONS (18%) | Subs | 1 SUBMISSIONS (5%) |
| -265 | Vegas Odds | +245 |
| 7/10 | Lineup Pool | 2/10 |
| Merab Dvalishvili | vs | Cody Stamann |
| $9,000 | DFS Salary | $7,200 |
| Record: 12-4-0 | Record | Record: 19-3-1 |
| 2 KO/TKO (17%) | Knockouts | 6 KO/TKO (32%) |
| 1 SUBMISSIONS (8%) | Subs | 2 SUBMISSIONS (11%) |
| -240 | Vegas Odds | +220 |
| 4/10 | Lineup Pool2 | 4/10 |
| 0 | ||
| Poliana Botelho | vs | Luana Carolina |
| $8,900 | DFS Salary | $7,300 |
| Record: 8-3-0 | Record | Record: 6-2-0 |
| 6 KO/TKO (75%) | Knockouts | 2 KO/TKO (33%) |
| 0 SUBMISSIONS (0%) | Subs | 1 SUBMISSIONS (17%) |
| -260 | Vegas Odds | +220 |
| 6/10 | Lineup Pool | 1/10 |
| Randa Markos | vs | Luana Pinheiro |
| $7,700 | DFS Salary | $8,500 |
| Record: 10-11-1 | Record | Record: 8-1-0 |
| 0 KO/TKO (0%) | Knockouts | 2 KO/TKO (25%) |
| 4 SUBMISSIONS (40%) | Subs | 5 SUBMISSIONS (63%) |
| +145 | Vegas Odds | -155 |
| 3/10 | Lineup Pool | 5/10 |
| Gabriel Benitez | vs | Jonathan Pearce |
| $8,800 | DFS Salary | $7,400 |
| Record: 22-9-0 | Record | Record: 10-4-0 |
| 8 KO/TKO (36%) | Knockouts | 8 KO/TKO (80%) |
| 10 SUBMISSIONS (45%) | Subs | 1 SUBMISSIONS (10%) |
| -185 | Vegas Odds | +170 |
| 5/10 | Lineup Pool | 5/10 |
| Kai Kamaka | vs | TJ Brown |
| $8,400 | DFS Salary | $7,800 |
| Record: 8-3-0 | Record | Record: 14-8-0 |
| 0 KO/TKO (0%) | Knockouts | 4 KO/TKO (29%) |
| 1 SUBMISSIONS (13%) | Subs | 9 SUBMISSIONS (64%) |
| -145 | Vegas Odds | +125 |
| 5/10 | Lineup Pool | 5/10 |
| Loma Lookboonmee | vs | Sam Hughes |
| $9,400 | DFS Salary | $6,800 |
| Record: 5-2-0 | Record | |
| 1 KO/TKO (20%) | Knockouts | 1 KO/TKO (20%) |
| 0 SUBMISSIONS (0%) | Subs | 3 SUBMISSIONS (60%) |
| -390 | Vegas Odds | +320 |
| 6/10 | Lineup Pool | 1/10 |
| Andreas Michailidis | vs | KB Bhullar |
| $9,100 | DFS Salary | $7,100 |
| Record: 12-4-0 | Record | Record: 8-1-0 |
| 7 KO/TKO (58%) | Knockouts | 4 KO/TKO (50%) |
| 4 SUBMISSIONS (33%) | Subs | 2 SUBMISSIONS (25%) |
| -230 | Vegas Odds | +190 |
| 3/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
| Luke Sanders | vs | Felipe Colares |
| $8,700 | DFS Salary | $7,500 |
| Record: 13-4-0 | Record | Record: 9-2-0 |
| 7 KO/TKO (54%) | Knockouts | 2 KO/TKO (22%) |
| 2 SUBMISSIONS (15%) | Subs | 5 SUBMISSIONS (56%) |
| -140 | Vegas Odds | +120 |
| 5/10 | Lineup Pool | 3/10 |