UFC 260 has taken a few hits with fight cancelations. We still get the most important heavyweight fight there is to make between Stipe Miocic and Francis Ngannou. With only ten surviving bouts you will need to nail your underdogs and possibly leave some salary on the table. That’s not hard to do with the odds bunched very tightly for the majority of fights. For any newcomers, let me echo my weekly sentiment to look for projectable grappling and beware hunting the flashy knockout.
| Main Event | |||||
| Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Stipe Miocic vs Francis Ngannou | 7800/8400 | - | Stackability: Risky | +110/ -130 | +210/-110 |
| We finally get the rematch for the HW strap we’ve been waiting years for. Will Francis show he learned his lesson from the first fight and be able to keep Stipe from smothering him with grappling. Will his cardio last into the later rounds? Can Stipe eat big shots the way he did the first fight and not wear the damage? It’s a great fight and really a coin flip. Surprisingly, the masses are leaning with history and backing Stipe at a slightly higher rate. The winner is sure to be a must have. The loser isn’t likely to score much so it’s not very stackable. | |||||
| Expensive | |||||
| Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Sean O'Malley | 9200 | Thomas Almeida | Somewhat-Safe | -320 | -110 |
| I’m a big believer in not overweighting a fighter’s most recent performance. O’Malley’s loss to Marlon Vera gave us no new information. It only confirmed he has chicken legs. He’s still got faster hands and a longer reach than half the division. There’s certainly concern that Almeida lands a hard low kick that changes the fight. Almeida has a habit of getting into wild exchanges that end poorly for him, however. | |||||
| Vicente Luque | 9100 | Tyron Woodley | Moderate | -255 | +175 |
| Luque needs an early KO at this price. As bad as TWood has looked he isn’t getting blown out of the building instantly. I expect him to stare at Luque with his back on the fence while getting out-volumed. We’ll see if his chin holds up or not with the lethal striking of Luque raining down. | |||||
| Miranda Maverick | 8800 | Gillian Robertson | Moderate | -160 | +350 |
| I’m always hesitant to back the up and coming female fighters when they get a fight with a veteran. It often goes poorly. Robertson can be bullied, though. If Maverick brings the same aggression she did in her UFC debut she probably controls the fight. Without a finish it’s a borderline salary to hit value on. | |||||
| Abubakar Nurmagomedov | 9000 | Jared Gooden | Moderate | -240 | +260 |
| This is a tricky one. Abubaker is another one of Khabib’s circle that try to do the same thing to lesser effect as the Eagle. If he can rack up grappling he could hold some value. If he lays on a gassed Gooden he’ll only score control time. He also pulled a stunt in his UFC debut losing by triangle choke. I don’t like the price or the spot but the profile does typically carrying DK scoring. | |||||
| Mid-Range | |||||
| Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Alonzo Menifield | 8100 | Fabio Cherant | Moderate | -290 | #N/A |
| Zo is facing a late replacement in Fabio Cherant. That makes his DK price of $8100 a huge misprice as his win odds are much higher. The field will be mega chalk on him around 75%. It’s an opportunity to fade a guy that has struggled with the step up in competition. Although, Cherant is certainly back to the low level he was dominating. A must in cash. | |||||
| Michal Oleksiejczuk | 8500 | Modestas Bukauskas | Somewhat-Risky | -155 | +135 |
| Lord Michal is looking to get back on track after some struggles. His endurance has been lacking despite looking good early in fights. The fight is lined right but I’m interested on DK particularly because is most probable win is one that comes with a first round KO. | |||||
| Khama Worthy | 8600 | Jamie Mullarkey | Somewhat-Risky | -130 | +160 |
| Worthy gets an opponent he should finally be favored over. I’m very low on Mularkey and will admit it could be a blind spot. Aussies tend to develop slower due to the gym caliber. I still don’t see Worthy struggling with anything other than his one big weakness: the chin. I don’t know that Mularkey can find it, though. | |||||
| Omar Morales | 8700 | Shane Young | Somewhat-Risky | -190 | #N/A |
| Morales hasn’t brought the kind of output we’d hoped for when he was signed to the UFC. Young tends to take one to give two, however. That could be a tailor made matchup for Morales sharpshooter power. | |||||
| Abu Azaitar | 8000 | Marc-Andre Barriault | Risky | +105 | +375 |
| Azaitar isn’t getting much love due to a long layoff. He was aggressive in his UFC debut and showed a well rounded skill set. I’d favor him over MAB. I don’t know that he can finish the durable Canadian and score well enough. With ten fights it might be enough without one. | |||||
| Marc-Andre Barriault | 8200 | Abu Azaitar | Risky | -125 | +315 |
| Barriualt was close to getting a pink slip but blasted Oskar Piechota in his last fight followed by a failed drug test. I don’t think he’s got the inside track here despite being lined the favorite. He’s tough and always in the fight, however. | |||||
| Pay-Downs | |||||
| Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Shane Young | 7500 | Omar Morales | Somewhat-Risky | +165 | #N/A |
| Young is a brawler from down under. That got him into major trouble against sharp kickboxer Ludovik Klein. Morales isn’t as aggressive but is another accurate kickboxer. If Young’s chin holds up he probably wins on volume. He might also be headed for a second straight KO. | |||||
| Jared Gooden | 7200 | Abubakar Nurmagomedov | Somewhat-Risky | +200 | +450 |
| I don’t love that Gooden came in overweight after what seems like a big effort to make it. He can’t get gassed against the smothering Russian style. He’s well traveled despite it being his second UFC fight so I’m giving him some benefit of the doubt. He’s probably the better boxer if he can keep two rounds on the feet. He’s also one of the few dogs with good odds to go the distance. | |||||
| Modestas Bukauskas | 7700 | Michal Oleksiejczuk | Risky | +135 | +315 |
| The chiseled Euro product looks to cut in line in the division once again with this fight. That burned him in the loss to Jimmy Crute. I worry that he’s headed for a similar fate here. Oleksiejczuk isn’t a good grappler, however. That’s his best path to victory. Will he go to it early enough to save his sketchy chin is the question. | |||||
| Jamie Mullarkey | 7600 | Khama Worthy | Risky | +110 | +285 |
| Mularkey is tough and does throw some leather, albeit less than technical. He’s got a punchers chance against Worthy’s diminished chin. | |||||
| Thomas Almeida | 7000 | Sean O'Malley | Risky | +260 | +415 |
| I’m suspect of Almeida moving back down to 135. His chin was a problem with that weight cut. O’Malley isn’t the guy to test that against. I guess he saw something he thinks he can exploit, whether it’s leg kicks or timidity. He’ll have his hands full but the leverage will be immense on DK. | |||||
| Tyron Woodley | 7100 | Vicente Luque | Risky | +215 | +560 |
| Woodley is either going to lose the decision or find a home for a haymaker after staring at Luque’s punches for a good while. Maybe there’s a little magic left in those hands. It is a step down from his prior level. | |||||
| Fabio Cherant | 7000 | Sean O'Malley | Risky | +245 | #N/A |
| You want leverage? Cherant’s ownership will be single digits with with ~75% of the field on his opponent. He does have the grappling to give Zo trouble. It’s a long shot but the reward would be worth the risk to me. | |||||
| Draftkings Core Plays | ||
Top Tier | Sean O'Malley | $9,200 |
| Miranda Maverick | $8,800 | |
Mid Tier | Alonzo Menifield | $8,100 |
| Michal Oleksiejczuk | $8,500 | |
| Value Tier | Shane Young | $7,500 |
| Fanduel Core Plays | ||
Top Tier | Sean O'Malley | $23 |
| Khama Worthy | $17 | |
Mid Tier | Miranda Maverick | $16 |
| Michal Oleksiejczuk | $17 | |
| Value Tier | Jared Gooden | $10 |
Favorite Bets: Oleksiejczuk -155, Worthy -130, Gooden +200
Favorite Props: Ngannou by DEC +1500 is a huge number or any of the round overs from round 2 on are values.
Live Dogs: Miocic, Young, Gooden, Azaitar, Almeida, Bukauskas
Stats & Picks:
| Stipe Miocic | vs | Francis Ngannou |
| $7,800 | DFS Salary | $8,400 |
| Record: 20-3-0 | Record | Record: 15-3-0 |
| Knockouts | ||
| Subs | ||
| +110 | Vegas Odds | -130 |
| 4/10 | Lineup Pool | 6/10 |
| Tyron Woodley | vs | Vicente Luque |
| $7,100 | DFS Salary | $9,100 |
| Record: 19-6-1 | Record | Record: 19-7-1 |
| Knockouts | 11 KO/TKO (58%) | |
| Subs | 6 SUBMISSIONS (32%) | |
| +215 | Vegas Odds | -255 |
| 2/10 | Lineup Pool | 7/10 |
| Sean O'Malley | vs | Thomas Almeida |
| $9,200 | DFS Salary | $7,000 |
| Record: 12-1-0 | Record | Record: 22-4-0 |
| Knockouts | 17 KO/TKO (77%) | |
| Subs | 4 SUBMISSIONS (18%) | |
| -320 | Vegas Odds | +260 |
| 6/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
| Gillian Robertson | vs | Miranda Maverick |
| $7,400 | DFS Salary | $8,800 |
| Record: 9-5-0 | Record | Record: 10-2-0 |
| Knockouts | 1 KO/TKO (13%) | |
| Subs | 5 SUBMISSIONS (63%) | |
| +140 | Vegas Odds | -160 |
| 3/10 | Lineup Pool | 5/10 |
| Jamie Mullarkey | vs | Khama Worthy |
| $7,600 | DFS Salary | $8,600 |
| Record: 12-4-0 | Record | Record: 16-7-0 |
| Knockouts | 9 KO/TKO (56%) | |
| Subs | 3 SUBMISSIONS (19%) | |
| +110 | Vegas Odds | -130 |
| 3/10 | Lineup Pool2 | 7/10 |
| 0 | ||
| Alonzo Menifield | vs | Fabio Cherant |
| $8,100 | DFS Salary | $7,000 |
| Record: 9-2-0 | Record | Record: 7-1-0 |
| 8 KO/TKO (89%) | Knockouts | 0 KO/TKO (0%) |
| 1 SUBMISSIONS (11%) | Subs | 5 SUBMISSIONS (71%) |
| -290 | Vegas Odds | +245 |
| 8/10 | Lineup Pool | 2/10 |
| Jared Gooden | vs | Abubakar Nurmagomedov |
| $7,200 | DFS Salary | $9,000 |
| Record: 17-5-0 | Record | Record: 15-3-1 |
| 7 KO/TKO (41%) | Knockouts | 6 KO/TKO (40%) |
| 6 SUBMISSIONS (35%) | Subs | 4 SUBMISSIONS (27%) |
| +200 | Vegas Odds | -240 |
| 5/10 | Lineup Pool | 3/10 |
| Modestas Bukauskas | vs | Michal Oleksiejczuk |
| $7,700 | DFS Salary | $8,500 |
| Record: 11-3-0 | Record | Record: 14-4-0 (1 NC) |
| 8 KO/TKO (73%) | Knockouts | 10 KO/TKO (71%) |
| 2 SUBMISSIONS (18%) | Subs | 1 SUBMISSIONS (7%) |
| +135 | Vegas Odds | -155 |
| 5/10 | Lineup Pool | 5/10 |
| Shane Young | vs | Omar Morales |
| $7,500 | DFS Salary | $8,700 |
| Record: 13-5-0 | Record | Record: 10-1-0 |
| Knockouts | 2 KO/TKO (20%) | |
| Subs | 5 SUBMISSIONS (50%) | |
| +165 | Vegas Odds | -190 |
| 5/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |
| Marc-Andre Barriault | vs | Abu Azaitar |
| $8,200 | DFS Salary | $8,000 |
| Record: 11-4-0 (1 NC) | Record | Record: 14-2-1 |
| 8 KO/TKO (73%) | Knockouts | |
| 0 SUBMISSIONS (0%) | Subs | |
| -125 | Vegas Odds | +105 |
| 4/10 | Lineup Pool | 4/10 |