Milwaukee Bucks @ Brooklyn Nets
Over/Under: 218
Spread: MIL -4
After the way the first two games of this series went, I’m not sure how many people thought we would even be here. That is both in the sense of a Game Five, or a competitive series with Milwaukee now in control. The Bucks won both games in Milwaukee, and while I wouldn’t say they were truly dominating, Brooklyn simply did not look good. It is now a best of three and, at least for tonight, it appears that Kevin Durant will have to go at it alone.
*James Harden – Out
*Kyrie Irving - Out
*Donte DiVincenzo - Out
CPT/MVP
Giannis Antetokounmpo – Things went better for Antetokounmpo in Game Four as he settled less for the outside shot and attacked the hoop more. Converting free throws was still a problem for him but we have to like the aggressiveness Antetokounmpo showed and Brooklyn, even with the return of Jeff Green, didn’t appear to be in the best position to slow him down. Antetokounmpo has a double-double in each game so far this postseason, and Sunday that consisted of 34 points and 12 rebounds along with three assists. There is no reason not to expect a repeat performance tonight as your superstar options are dwindling.
Kevin Durant – You had to know that we were going to Durant next considering he is all alone in Brooklyn. The production is ultimately there for Durant but to say he has been inefficient would be an understatement. Durant will get his points at the end of the night (28 on Sunday) but it’s going to take a lot of shots for him to get there and Milwaukee, with P.J. Tucker getting a lot of credit, has been tough on him defensively. But with Durant all alone from a superstar perspective he will be heavily featured, especially in isolation, and that is for better or worse. With that being said, from a sheer production standpoint, I’m not sure we can fade him tonight.
Khris Middleton – If you are looking to submit multiple lineups tonight and/or going for some differentiation, then Middleton is the obvious direction to look in. Milwaukee’s comeback in this series has a lot to do with Middleton’s resurgence as he was close to half of the Bucks’ offense in Game Three (35 points and 15 rebounds) before following that up with 19 points, eight assists, and four rebounds on Sunday. Middleton’s success should continue tonight as he is stepping up to be the true second option.
MID-TIER
Bruce Brown – Someone needs to step up for Brooklyn, both as a second option and in the backcourt. The issue here is that Brown took a step back on Sunday as he scored just seven points in 20 minutes of play after putting up 16 points along with 11 rebounds in 37 minutes in the game prior. Brown will be in the starting lineup and the usage will be there.
Jrue Holiday – Holiday has been struggling offensively but compared to our other options tonight, the usage is on the higher side. His minutes are going to be in the upper 30’s and he is coming off a 14-point, nine assist performance on Sunday as he turned a little bit of a corner after two tough games. The point guard should at least hit the 30-fantasy point mark, but I wouldn’t bank on much more than 40. That might not sound like a truly ringing endorsement but from a purely production standpoint, Holiday is still one of the better options.
Brook Lopez – Lopez isn’t consistently a threat on offense, but he plays around 30 minutes per game so that is a big part of it. After scoring 29 points in the first two games of the series, Lopez now has consecutive games with 11 rebounds. He isn’t going to block six shots in a game again like he did in Game Three but there is no reason why he can’t get to 25 or 30 fantasy points.
DART THROWS
Joe Harris – Game Four was the second straight rough game for Harris who scored just eight points in 38 minutes. We know that workload will continue, but the only place for his shooting to go is up.
Jeff Green – From a defensive perspective Brooklyn has to rely on Green and they did perhaps a little too much in Game Three as he played 26 minutes in his return. With eight points and five rebounds, we get solid production from the forward, and while we can’t ask for too much more than that, there is something to be said for consistency at the price.
P.J. Tucker – Staying with the defensive side of the ball, Tucker will continue to get run for Milwaukee as he has been doing a great job against Durant and just playing in his role overall. At this point we can expect about 30 minutes from Tucker tonight as he looks to repeat his 13 point, seven rebound performance from Sunday.
Mike James – James will have to take a step forward tonight but things have gone downhill for him after playing 30 minutes in Game One. The ability to score in double figures is there but we need to see him do it consistently before truly buying in.
Pat Connaughton – After he put up 32 FD points on Sunday, Connaughton has to be on our radar, but the biggest takeaway for me is the fact that he played 21 minutes. The eight points, three assists, and two rebounds are repeatable but we don’t want to be chasing the two blocks and four steals. At the same time though, it’s hard to argue with the price.