Brooklyn Nets @ Milwaukee Bucks
Over/Under: 235
Spread: MIL -3.5
Game 3
Before typing out the point spread on tonight’s game, I made sure to double check myself and make sure my eyes weren’t deceiving me. Of course, everyone knows that means Brooklyn will let up and Milwaukee will get back in the series, but after how the last game went, I’m not sure how possible that really is. The Nets and the Bucks looked like two teams traveling in completely opposite directions on Monday, so it will be interesting to see how they respond tonight.
Injuries:
*James Harden – Out
*Jeff Green - Out
Player Breakdown:
Giannis Antetokounmpo – Brooklyn has all of sudden discovered how to the play defense, and they are actually pretty good at it as they have shut Antetokounmpo down through the first two games of the season. His free throw shooting woes are clearly in his head and it is something we have to keep an eye on tonight as the forward looks to rebound from scoring just 18 points in Game Two. Despite his inefficiencies, Antetokounmpo did score 34 points to kick off the series and he has 11 rebounds in each game. In order for the Bucks to make this any type of series they will need to lean heavily on their star, but as the highest priced player on the slate, I’m not sure we need to force him into our lineups.
Kevin Durant – Durant continues to be everything Brooklyn expected and then some as he is showing no signs of any past injury. Had the outcome of the game actually been in doubt at any point, Durant would have done better than his 32-point, six assist performance on Monday, and at this point that has essentially been established as his floor.
Kyrie Irving – There are going to be games in which Irving dazzles us, but it is clear Durant is the top player on Brooklyn. Irving will break the 20-point mark, but beyond that I’m not sure I see enough sustainable DFS value and production based on the price. Perhaps things will be different if tonight’s game goes down to the wire, but Irving hasn’t exactly picked up the slack for James Harden being out either.
Khris Middleton/Jrue Holiday – I see myself fading Milwaukee tonight for the most part, so it made sense to combine their second and third options. Middleton has been shooting a ton so far against Brooklyn and he hasn’t been doing so at the most efficient level either scoring a combined 30 points in two games. He will keep on shooting, but Middleton also won’t be grabbing 13 rebounds every night like he did in Game One as he is generally more of a one-dimensional option. Holiday has been a little better, and while I’m not sure it’s completely fair to judge the Bucks strictly on their last game, it has to be in the back of our minds. Ultimately, I feel more comfortable utilizing Milwaukee for some value options in Bryn Forbes (10 points in Game Two after exploding offensively in the first round) or P.J. Tucker who found his way into the starting lineup (although he scored just two points and grabbed three rebounds in 22 minutes in Game Two).
Bruce Brown – Brown has been the biggest beneficiary of Harden’s absence as he moved into the starting lineup playing a comfortable 20 to 25 minutes a game. He plays a complete game, and while he might not jump off the page at you, 25 to 30 fantasy points seems to be where he lands most nights. Mike James has also emerged averaging 11 points, five rebounds, and three assists so far this series.
Blake Griffin – We knew that Griffin wasn’t going to repeat his 18-point, 14 rebound performance from Game One, but we also know that it shouldn’t have been completely surprising as the skill set is there. He dropped down to seven points and eight rebounds on Monday in 25 minutes as the Nets really didn’t need his services all that much. Griffin continues to be a cost-effective option with Nicolas Claxton further down on our radar averaging 14 minutes, four points, 3.5 rebounds, and a block per game.
Brook Lopez – Options are limited at the center position, and Lopez fits solidly into that mid-range; for better or worse. We know that he will score in double figures, I’m not holding the 10 points from Game Two against him as he scored 19 in Game One, but Lopez is different from other centers as he is more reliant on his offense than anything else.
Los Angeles Clippers @ Utah Jazz
Over/Under: 223
Spread: UTA -3
Game 2
We had a tight game to start the series, and I would expect more of the same tonight. The major thing to keep an eye on tonight is the status of Conley, but at this point in season we don’t want to over think things either.
Injuries:
*Mike Conley - Questionable (hamstring)
*Serge Ibaka – Out
Player Breakdown:
Kawhi Leonard – Leonard had a pedestrian start to the series with 23 points and seven rebounds on Tuesday, but we know he is the type of player that shines in the playoffs. Based on the price, we are chasing 50-plus fantasy points on a nightly basis, and Leonard has proven more often than not that he is capable of that. With that being said, the Clippers “limited” his minutes to 35 in Game One and he did just finish a tough seven game series against Dallas, and Leonard isn’t cheap tonight either.
Donovan Mitchell – Even if Conley plays tonight, I’m still going to be high on Mitchell once again. The fact that he is $1,500 cheaper than Leonard on FD certainly is a factor here, but we know that the usage will be there either way, but no Conley means Mitchell really becomes a must play. After scoring 30 points in back-to-back games to close out the Grizzlies, Mitchell kicked off the second round with 45 points against the Clippers while handing out five assists. We have seen Mitchell hit double-digit assists in previous games, but for the season he did average 5.2 per game. There is no reason not to expect Mitchell to score at a high level once again tonight.
Paul George – George only got to 20 points on Tuesday because of his proficiency in both getting to the line and converting his free throws. What has helped to preserve his value, is his impact on the boards, but it’s tough to commit to him tonight with the scoring not being as consistent as it could be.
Rudy Gobert – Gobert is the best center on the slate, but he doesn’t offer the same upside as others at his price level. With 10 points and 12 rebounds, he still got to a double-double, but we might need to temper our expectations. We know that Gobert is a force on the boards, but the upside his limited by his offensive game.
Bojan Bogdanovic - Out of Utah’s perimeter players, including Joe Ingles and Jordan Clarkson, Bogdanovic stands out to me. He consistently plays around 35 minutes per game and comes close to 20 points per game while factoring some rebounds. Clarkson occasionally flashes some more offensive upside, but he is a little more one-dimensional.
Luke Kennard – Kennard got what was a perhaps surprising 29 minutes of run on Tuesday, and he responded with 18 points. As the Clippers search for offense, I’m fine taking a look here again tonight for a repeat performance.
Derrick Favors - For the second straight game, Favors only scored two points, but thanks to six rebounds and two blocked shots, he still got to 19.7 FD points which makes him worth a dart throw if you are planning to punt the center position.
DeMarcus Cousins – Cousins might be the ultimate dart throw tonight after we saw from him in three minutes on Tuesday. The center impressed in his limited playing time with six points and three rebounds and it appears it might have earned him more playing time tonight. There certainly is a need in the post for the Clippers so the opportunity is there.
| Position | Top Tier | Mid-Tier | Value-Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
| {{position.position.alias}} | {{position.top.name}} | {{position.mid.name}} | {{position.value.name}} |